Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

So, there is a lot of uncertainty in terms of volume, right ?

That's why I'm saying the assembly line should be flexible to make either 3 or Y. So, depending on demand they can shift back & forth.

Not sure why this is controversial.

The only controversy is that the line would have to be shut down during the conversion process, when it could be running making cars. The time to do the dual run conversion is in the nebulous future when the capacity can't be sold, not when it will limit sales and profit.

 

[Krugerrand]

Where will the Model Y get built?

Saskatchewan. Or was it Kazakhstan?

 

[Zaxxon]

Norway just crossed 2k units for the month so far. Well over 3k for the quarter already.

 

[lascavarian]

In my opinion, the downside of the CyberPunkTruck/Halo Vanity Project is that it delays entry and first mover status into a lucrative market.

Yes, could be, but we really need more choice. Tesla is giving a little breathing room for others to jump in. I think it will be upstarts and not the legacy industry that will move fastest. We need lots of upstarts with fire in their belly. It is a lot easier to introduce and EV today so maybe others will jump in.

I bring this example up every time I can since it is tragic. Since back in the '90s consumer protection activists have been trying to save the lives of those that die every year related to vehicle Carbon Monoxide poisoning. So for 20+ years (much longer but that long since regulators requested a solution) people die due to CO poisoning and Detroit does not really want to engineer a complete solution to save those lives. In 2019 more people will die.

Contrast this to EM adding "Dog Mode" to keep pets in safety and comfort. It cost programming dollars when dollars were very tight yet he spent the dollars to save pets. Detroit won't even add an option that a customer would pay for.

Here's How to Avoid Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Your Car

It is hard to imagine how hide-bound and inflexible Detroit seems to have become over the decades.

So I think the serious money for Tesla is in China in the immediate future and I would like to see them deliver a battery pack that is at a cost level that delivers the "out-of-business" message to Detroit and then maybe they will seriously get moving. Maybe Jeep will show them how it is done. There is room for a lot of players as I see it.

Thanks again for your comments and sorry for the CO rant.

 

[Lessmog]

Is poetry allowable while the share price isn't doing anything?

Just wait ...

 

[Antares Nebula]

I’ve a different take FC and, in particular, don’t buy your pushback opinion.

I’d be very surprised if Elon was just indulging his own taste.

EV powertrain packaging requirements offer different and arguably more opportunities for designers than those of ICEV’s.

There is an opportunity for Tesla to redefine truck design to the degree seen with diesel locomotives compared to steam locomotives. In one stroke Tesla could consign traditional truck design to the dustbin (two if you count Semi).

There is the risk that truck buyers are too traditional to buy which is what I think Elon is acknowledging. Given our youth obsessed culture and too often ageist work world, I’m inclined to believe it’s a sound bet. The young may buy first this time, but the broader market will ultimately buy. It is possible the new design will make Tesla’s pickups more useful than traditional design too. Of course, it’s certain to be a better product overall; torque alone will see to that.

So it is a business gamble. But I would think the designers would jump at the opportunity to fill such white space in the design world.

BTW, it’s not impossible that the truck teaser is a tonneau cover, perhaps an integrated one. That would fit with the mission and the choice of image with Elon’s sense of humor.

This is an interesting observation. The traditional pickup truck look was due to fundamental design considerations: (need for a large engine, and thus a large front hood), and a large flat back bed for storage/hauling. This resulted in a very simple and masculine look.

But with EVs, there is no longer the need for a large front engine and hood, and so design considerations may be different here. Still need the large flat back bed. So the question then becomes what is the optimal design. What would nature come up with? The traditional pickup design need not have a monopoly on what is considered powerful and masculine. Tesla, with a new EV powertrain, can redefine the pickup and maybe even consign the traditional look to the dustbins of history.

 

[Causalien]

This could happen. I do think, however, that the earliest adopters of the S are a culturally different subgroup from those likely to look at the Pickup. You're right though. If it's badass enough, being different might be acceptable. The Ford Raptor looked somewhat different than other trucks, but now everybody else copies the Raptor stylistically.

Unfortunately, I think the difference in the Cyberpunk pickup from what I picture in my head is going to be far more drastic.

I've appreciated your posts over the years as well, fwiw.

The most logical way going forward is for you to get a new truck now. By the time Model U comes out, it'll be time to update your truck anyway.

Many here had to muddle through with their dying ICE before the appropriate EV gets shipped. In hindsight, it's probably always bettrr to buy a new ICE when rumours of a EV you want starts to get circled around.

 

[Zaxxon]

Norway just crossed 2k units for the month so far. Well over 3k for the quarter already.

Also, for some reason I feel compelled to point out that Norway has slightly over half the population of the Chicago metro area.

 

[dc_h]

We have to think a little longer term than just 2019.

Once the China GF comes online and we have a European GF - Tesla would be producing 3 & Y in the US for US consumption. It would be very useful if they can switch volume back & forth between 3 & Y depending on the demand. Infact I hope the lines in China & Europe GF can do the same thing.

Then, Tesla can make a separate assembly line for Pickups in US.

I’d like Tesla to make the first assembly of each new car in Fremont eventually. Use it as your innovation hub, get the process down and then roll out globally.

 

[KarenRei]

First steel pillar of GF3 installed:

JayinShanghai on Twitter

The text reads "Congrats to Tesla Gigafactory for successfully installing the first steel pillar in phase one”

ED: More info:

Kelvin Yang on Twitter

---------
Prefabricated load-bearing column. TIL how it's going to be completed in May

Some additional information: This first column is for General Assembly building. 11.5 meters,10.8 tons. General Assembly building is 450m x 48m x 15m in size.
---------

You know, that's remarkably similar in dimensions to Lathrop...

 

[Lucky_Man]

This is very possibly it, but not 42 deg, more like 15-20 deg.
View attachment 386913
Then the head light beams seems to be parallel to the ground.

Man this thing is straight out of interstellar.

Weekend - New Product Speculation

OK, I'll put in my $0.02.

Imagine, in your minds eye, this view is the left-rear quarter of Elon's futuristic pickup. The white light shown isn't a headlight or running light. It's his new 1.2 Jiggawatt PowerPack glowing white hot, seen from underneath a partially retracted flexible tonneau cover...

I love all the other ideas too! Keep 'em coming.

 

[Words of HABIT]

I know a guy here in Los Angeles that needs a pickup but drives a van instead because "he doesn't listen to Country Musac and have sex with his sister."

I know he is not a alone. So there is a market out there for an unconventional pickup.

Shout out to Blankpoint on Disqus..

Rob, IMHO opinion the Blankpoint on Disqus orange marking drawing is spot on. the near vertical front of the original Tesla pickup teaser image (see below) will most likely be angled as per BonD image, to increase aerodynamics and safety (crumple zone). Tesla will be the trend-setter for pick-ups and knock every other competitor off their perch, including BEV makers Atlis, Bollinger, Rivian, W-15 along with the OEM when they wake up and get into the EV game. The others all look the same, some more square than others, they all have a massive hood which is a carryover from required ICE design and serves absolutely no purpose for a BEV.

I don't think Tesla needs to worry for even a single minute that they will need to produce an alternate design for their pickup truck. Absolutely not. This will do just fine. They will need one version that seats two with an extended carrying bed, and one version that seats five (perhaps six in two rows of three with Driver in the centre similar to Semi) with with a shorter carrying bed, but the overall design of the pickup truck will be the same, and it will win the hearts of most all pickup truck drivers...and some of us that aren't. I have never even remotely thought of having a pickup truck as my personal vehicle.....until now.

 

[Lucky_Man]

Those look like Porsche 911 rear seats.

I couldn't fit there if you gave me 100 shares of TSLA.

For 100 TSLA shares, I'd damn well give it a try ;^)

 

[Antares Nebula]

Third rows in SUVs of this size class are not used for road trips with 7 adult passengers.

They are used:

• By families of five or more, which is about 10% of U.S. households. In a family with 3 children the smallest or second smallest one goes into the third row.
• They are used by families of four that have plans for a third child. Average car ownership is 7 years, and we all know that wives are in firm control of the choice of the next family car. Husbands have an important advisory role, which more often than not is an honorary role with no real executive power.
• 7 seaters are also useful when soccer moms do small favors to befriended moms and take the kids of multiple families from A to B on smaller trips. Smallest ones go in the back.
• Most of the time the 3rd row seats are folded down and it serves as cargo space.
• Seating 7 adults is road legal and happens occasionally too, but mostly only during product unveilings.

So you're saying that the Model Y is the new sexy car for soccer moms?

 

[Words of HABIT]

Tesla Model Y: Elon Musk's second electric SUV is here - CNN
Trending on CNN. Excellent article and includes a video link of the reveal.
The article is not perfect as Matt still inserts MSM mandatory Tesla FUD paragraph, but this time they put their FUD at the end of the article. Otherwise very well received.

 

[gringotuanis]

View attachment 387026

Can anybody confirm this stat, that crossovers comprise almost 40% of car market share in US, with pickups and SUVs at less than 20% each? I would have guessed that the latter two sell more than crossovers, as I hardly see any crossovers on the road, while seeing plenty of SUVs and pickups. Maybe I'm not clear on what the crossover category consists of?

My point is that if this stat is really correct (but is it?), it's a big boon for Model Y (as the latter is properly considered a crossover rather than an SUV, I believe).

The image (frame) was pulled from:

Where do you live that you don't see crossovers? They're the Toyota Rav4, Nissan Rogue, etc.

 

[gringotuanis]

I still remember the days Elon tried to get the shorts. Dark ages man.

It seems to me he doesn't do that anymore. He doesn't seem to want to do anything about the stock price anymore.

This Y presentation is perhaps the shortest about the product itself. He spent most time on reflecting on Tesla's achievement. And then basically said: here is the car, just like I told you.

If I remember correctly, model 3 presentation was much longer, Semi and roadster was phenomenal. This was like "here you go". It was like "OK someone tricked me into doing this tomorrow, since I want to keep the promise, might as well do it today."

Looks like a half hearted efforts from him

Actually I think the model Y was his attempt to pump the price up again. It just went badly since they did not tease anything else (I mean the truck was so hidden I wouldn't even call it a "one other thing". If they were serious they would have rolled the pick up out. It just feels like he's trying too hard now and not even convinces himself he should do it. I'm actually surprised how bad the presentation was the other day.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

The Model Y reveal video from Tesla’s YouTube account is now #5 on trending. Over 1 million views.

 

[gringotuanis]

Well he had inside information

SEC! SEC! Where are they when you need them?

 

[KarenRei]

The Model Y reveal video from Tesla’s YouTube account is now #5 on trending. Over 1 million views.

Trending videos are region-specific. I discovered this when I saw that "Hatrið Mun Sigra" ("Hatred Will Prevail", Iceland's Eurovision entry this year) was at the top of the trending list, and asked people in other countries whether it looked the same to them.