Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

With the decline in sales I think they'll drop the Prius for the next generation. Toyota is finally bringing the Corolla Hybrid to the USA (Auris Hybrid has been in Europe for years), the Prius doesn't have any cachet any more, US sales are dismal, Japanese sales are falling, and Toyota's hybridized the rest of the cars and SUVs.

Toyota used to get partial ZEV credits for the Prius, they don't anymore.

Necessitating a ZEV like the Mirai FCEV in the CA market. Toyota sells a lot of Tacomas,Tundras,Sequoias, 4Runners,Land Cruisers and in some cases their Lexus equivalents in CARB States.

Toyota sells the Corolla hatchback in the USA and the Corolla sedan hybrid.

A Corolla hatchback hybrid is superior to a Prius and cheaper to make for Toyota than a Prius because of economies of scale.

I agree the Prius will not have a 5th generation.

 

[mad474]

Damn... There goes my car.

Mine too. But SR+ wont be disregarded if it comes in time

 

[SebastianR]

Wow: Limited Edition MediUm Range.

I was always wondering about what "Lemur" stood for, and phasing it out as the SR was ramping up was the plan all along.

By the way: watch for TSLAQ folks to scream "we knew it, Tesla is in trouble, MR was a desperate attempt to keep demand up, when demand was falling!"

And I expect that narrative to persist beyond Q1 we will see a lot of stories from both bulls and bears how demand will collapse from here on out / how demand will explode from here on out - but that's the name of the game I guess...

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Update: the Model Y Ordering FAQ got updated, with the wording no longer implying a European Gigafactory:

Model Y Ordering FAQ

"When will Model Y production begin?
Model Y production is expected to begin in late 2020 for North America, and in early 2021 for Europe and China. Standard Range production is expected to begin in early 2021 for North America, and in early 2022 for Europe and China."​

Note the "for Europe" vs. "in Europe" wording.

European Gigafactory unconfirmed again!

Elon half confirmed it once again. Daaaaaaaayum, just get Gigafactory 4 started already.

 

[RobStark]

lol, more proof the eyes see what the mind wants to see.

View attachment 387333

I think Karen just had a baby heart attack.

That is NOT an aerodynamic design.

 

[schonelucht]

I know a guy here in Los Angeles that needs a pickup but drives a van instead because "he doesn't listen to Country Musac and have sex with his sister."

I have heard a lot of bad reasons to own a pickup, but this may be the worst reason not to own one.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Chauffeur looks cramped,View attachment 387034

They might have pushed the front seat forward to leave more space in the back row. Just my 2 cents.

 

[Fact Checking]

And I expect that narrative to persist beyond Q1 we will see a lot of stories from both bulls and bears how demand will collapse from here on out / how demand will explode from here on out - but that's the name of the game I guess...

Collapse of demand was always around the corner for Apple too, didn't stop the market from eventually recognizing the trillion dollar juggernaut that was executing quarter after quarter.

 

[RobStark]

 

[Thekiwi]

Collapse of demand was always around the corner for Apple too, didn't stop the market from eventually recognizing the trillion dollar juggernaut that was executing quarter after quarter.

Something else reminded me of Apple over the last few weeks: it used to be that every time Apple announced a product that went on to be a huge hit, that the stock price would take a dive immediately after the launch event, and usually the overall press tone was negative. Ultimately the actual buying public were the ultimate judge and made the products huge successes, and shareholders were richly rewarded.

Most clear one in my memory is the iPad introduction. The stock price fell 4-5% straight away, most of the media decried it as “just a giant iphone’, and Steve Jobs told his friends and colleagues how depressed he was with the industry reaction.

Fast forward barely a couple of,years later and the iPad turned out to be a massively successful product in both adoption and profitability, over shadowed in consumer electronics only by the iPhone. It turns out what people wanted WAS something like “just a giant iphone’

Likewise, I think history will also prove that what many many many SUV buyers wanted was “Just a bigger model 3”

 

[Creekstalker]

Yeah, I think it's that 2-3 year window that's the key for the mainstream Tesla Pickup (I mean the F-150 killer).

By 2022, Tesla could have 2nd-gen 'Maxcell' btys with 500wh/kg energy density, 2x life cycle, and still cheaper to make PER CELL than 2019 spec Panasonic cells.

This allows a 500 Kwh bty in a full size pickup. If it uses up to half the energy as the 80K lb Semi, that gives a 500 mile range on the higway, while TOWING a heavy boat, or a huge 5th wheel trailer.

Cost to do this trip in an F-150? Maybe $150 in gas to tow 500 miles at current (low) US gas prices? (anyone have figures?) But 500 kwh of electric energy avgs $60 in America.

So I don't think that bty pack can be built today. Tesla needs to enter the full-size pickup market with incumbent-crushing specs. 3 years from now? You betcha!

In the meantime, a few cyberpunks get show off their new woo-hoo tech at Burning Man... PR bonanza.

Cheers!

View attachment 387306

Your keyboard to God's ears plz. Give us a Moore's Law for batteries!

 

[Antares Nebula]

It's The Tesla Model Y Versus The Competition - Now That There Actually Is Some, Finally

"Despite his release of patents and overall encouragement for competing carmakers to fully embrace the EV space, Tesla clearly remains far in the lead, both in terms of the number of cars produced, the tech needed to operate them and the marketing of the vehicles. The fact that it's still a struggle to even come up with competitors that meet Tesla on price and performance is telling. While the Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE and Hyundai Kona Electric are all likely to be competent performers and will do their part to keep moving the needle on EV adoption, none yet truly compete directly with Tesla's latest effort.

The Audi and Jaguar offerings are clearly premium vehicles out of reach of most middle-class consumers and will likely sell in tiny numbers. The fairly unremarkable Hyundai is actually the highlight here, competing at least on price and utility with the midrange Model Y, yet it is buried within Hyundai's lineup and marketing efforts. It's also still far, far off the mark in terms of performance and innovation, both of which are a focus for Tesla and are clearly motivating forces for buyers. Why the realization of combining and producing electric cars with those factors - at a reasonable price - didn't happen at major automakers the world over with the sudden success of the then-premium Model S will be studied at business schools for decades to come."

 

[DrKenneth]

I counted about 600-625 Teslas.

 

[KarenRei]

Dennis Chang on Twitter

• ~11k new Chinese Model 3 orders (not reservations) between 8 January and 15 March
• I estimate this becomes about 13-14k by the end of the "can deliver by the end of this quarter" period.
• This does not count S, X, and people who already had Model 3 reservations. Maybe up to 20k in China for the quarter?
  • Roughly matches estimates for Europe - up to 20k or so this quarter - which is nice because roughly the same number have ships have been sent to both
• Canada was 4,7k "Teslas" in February, before Tesla unleashed its SR surge. I expect maybe 10k Q1? Hard to know how big the surge is.
• Mexico will probably add a couple k. Not a ton.
• Otherwise, Model 3 isn't available outside the US, but there will be some thousands of S+X sold.
• US is the hotly disputed location for Model 3 sales, with Jan-Feb=~6k/mo InsideEVs, 9-10k/mo AlphaHat, ~18k Edmunds. I tend to believe AlphaHat the most. I'd put my Jan-Feb estimate at ~18k.
• I'll guess that with the SR surge, maybe 35k Model 3s for Q1 in the US? Plus some thousands of S+X

Adding these numbers together, I'm getting maybe 92k vehicles delivered in Q1.

High error bars, of course.

VIN registrations this quarter have been 131k. Deliveries would thus be 70% of registrations, and with an extra ~10k inventory this quarter, production would be 78% of registrations. These numbers are IMHO believable. Maybe a couple percent higher than I'd expect, but close.

This would also imply production of 7,8k vehicles per week, so nearly 7k Model 3s per week average. This is higher than I'd expect averaged across the quarter.

All together, I'm tempted to lower the above 92k deliveries (and 102k production) somewhat. 87k deliveries / 97k production, for example, would be 7,4k/wk vehicles and maybe 6,6k/wk Model 3s; I find that more believable. Maybe lower still. But again, who knows. It's annoying having no better insights into production than the worthless Bloomberg VIN-based tracker, and the one report that said that Tesla is "not yet consistently producing 7k/wk battery packs at GF1".

 

[CorneliusXX]

How long u bin farmin?

View attachment 387331

Gave it up for banking in London. Fewer flies. Same number of snakes.

 

[KarenRei]

It's The Tesla Model Y Versus The Competition - Now That There Actually Is Some, Finally

"Despite his release of patents and overall encouragement for competing carmakers to fully embrace the EV space, Tesla clearly remains far in the lead, both in terms of the number of cars produced, the tech needed to operate them and the marketing of the vehicles. The fact that it's still a struggle to even come up with competitors that meet Tesla on price and performance is telling. While the Audi e-tron, Jaguar I-PACE and Hyundai Kona Electric are all likely to be competent performers and will do their part to keep moving the needle on EV adoption, none yet truly compete directly with Tesla's latest effort.

The Audi and Jaguar offerings are clearly premium vehicles out of reach of most middle-class consumers and will likely sell in tiny numbers. The fairly unremarkable Hyundai is actually the highlight here, competing at least on price and utility with the midrange Model Y, yet it is buried within Hyundai's lineup and marketing efforts. It's also still far, far off the mark in terms of performance and innovation, both of which are a focus for Tesla and are clearly motivating forces for buyers. Why the realization of combining and producing electric cars with those factors - at a reasonable price - didn't happen at major automakers the world over with the sudden success of the then-premium Model S will be studied at business schools for decades to come."

Are people seriously comparing the Hyundai Kona to the Model 3? The Kona has less interior space than the Model 3. Have you ever sat in its back seat? On the dozen or so interior passenger space measurements it only beats the Model 3 in one of them, and just barely (if I remember right it's "rear hip space"). Literally 2" / 5cm less rear leg room (may not sound like much, but picture what that means to your knees if you're tall).

You can fit a bit more luggage in the boot of the Kona if you're willing to stack it high enough to block your rear view, but if you don't want to block your rear view, it has less luggage space.

 

[Creekstalker]

If the flatbed has a hard cover then it could also be used as an air-conditioned tent accessible from the cabin, enough sleeping space for 2-4 people. With fully biodefense filtered, dehumidified and cooled (or heated) air and far off the ground it would be very comfortable and rain protected, it would also be safe from insects and predators. If the cover is hardened glass then a star filled night sky or a thunderstorm would be an amazing experience.

Stuff like this could get people (like me) to overlook aesthetics. Even if they just had a tent designed to convert the bed into a camping space they could put vents back there to either cool or heat the tent during the night.

I also hope they include something like the gear tunnel pictured below. There are so many items that I don't want to put in the bed or have riding with me in the cab (fishing rods, guns, paddles, life jackets, etc) that it's a great feature. It also functions as a place to sit down and take off waders, boots or whatever. Also a frunk, since it's a great place to put luggage in the event of rain and still be able to seat the family.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Are people seriously comparing the Hyundai Kona to the Model 3? The Kona has less interior space than the Model 3. Have you ever sat in its back seat? On the dozen or so interior passenger space measurements it only beats the Model 3 in one of them, and just barely (if I remember right it's "rear hip space"). Literally 2" / 5cm less rear leg room (may not sound like much, but picture what that means to your knees if you're tall).

You can fit a bit more luggage in the boot of the Kona if you're willing to stack it high enough to block your rear view, but if you don't want to block your rear view, it has less luggage space.

I agree. But it is being compared on the lone basis that it is an EV. Just like people compare the Bolt and Leaf and i3 to Model 3. These so called competitors or "Tesla killers" are clearly not, but what else can the media compare Teslas too? The author above was just doing his due diligence, but in the end he reached the right conclusion that the current competition just doesn't stack up. Unlike other (false) media reports that claim that Model 3 or Y have *genuine* competition.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Something else reminded me of Apple over the last few weeks: it used to be that every time Apple announced a product that went on to be a huge hit, that the stock price would take a dive immediately after the launch event, and usually the overall press tone was negative. Ultimately the actual buying public were the ultimate judge and made the products huge successes, and shareholders were richly rewarded.

Most clear one in my memory is the iPad introduction. The stock price fell 4-5% straight away, most of the media decried it as “just a giant iphone’, and Steve Jobs told his friends and colleagues how depressed he was with the industry reaction.

Fast forward barely a couple of,years later and the iPad turned out to be a massively successful product in both adoption and profitability, over shadowed in consumer electronics only by the iPhone. It turns out what people wanted WAS something like “just a giant iphone’

Likewise, I think history will also prove that what many many many SUV buyers wanted was “Just a bigger model 3”

Won’t it be the future’s job to prove the theory?

 

[lklundin]

Dennis Chang on Twitter

• Mexico will probably add a couple k. Not a ton.

Interesting.

Tesla has two Mexican locations, one in Mexico City and a second in Nuevo Leon, not too far from Aledo, Texas.

Tesla reportedly started sales in Mexico on March 8 - and their website currently says that Model 3 (AWD + P) can be delivered in 2-4 weeks and Model S/X in March.

While these delivery times may not hold, I guess a number of higher trim Teslas could find Mexican owners in Q1...

Nice!