I shouldn't have flatly said the judge will find him in contempt. Rulings are unpredictable and judges usually try to find a middle ground.
The question is whether the tweet "reasonably could be material", per the settlement and Tesla's own policy.
Tesla very clearly guided for 360-400k deliveries in 2019. The pre-approved conference call talking points also said 360-400k. Neither the 10-K nor the prepared statements said anything about 360-600k.
During Q4 call Q&A, Musk said "Maybe in the order of 350,000 to 500,000 Model 3s, something like that this year" in partial reply to a question. Conference call Q&A is not pre-vetted (obviously) and is covered by extensive safe harbor statements that give execs leeway to talk imprecisely about possible outcomes which don't constitute official guidance. Musk has said nutty things in calls before (e.g. 100-200k Model 3s in 2H17), investors know to ignore these off-the-cuff hypotheticals when they conflict with official guidance.
We'll see what the judge says.