Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[gringotuanis]

Yeah, to heck with 20%, let's see 80%, right? Amirite?



Yeah, let's reduce production and S&P costs without reducing labour costs!



It's okay, lots of other people are also willfully blind to the world around them. No judgement.

I want 20 or 15 percent for the short range m3.

Point 2 I'd rather see them constantly hiring without having to reduce labor costs. Growth is growth.

3. Not willfully blind, just not gullible. burned by Elon too many times to count. . If the judge orders him to give up his Twitter account, I'd be happy and buying calls. His 420 tweet hurt me pretty bad as an investor. He seems to have worked on his self control but it's borderline still.
I'll be blind until I decide Tesla has opened my eyes to the light.

 

[MP3Mike]

not sure of the dettails, budget just came out. It is most likely there to exclude Tesla. Just like what Ontario did. Quite ironic how Progressive Canada will do this. But fear not, they've painted themselves into a corner as the limit is set now. $1000. AC'd work as there's an additional $100 ac tax.

Actually the price the OP quoted for Canada was wrong. Tesla would have to lower the price by $2,600.01 to qualify.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I want 20 or 15 percent for the short range m3.

Point 2 I'd rather see them constantly hiring without having to reduce labor costs. Growth is growth.

3. Not willfully blind, just not gullible. burned by Elon too many times to count. . If the judge orders him to give up his Twitter account, I'd be happy and buying calls. His 420 tweet hurt me pretty bad as an investor. He seems to have worked on his self control but it's borderline still.
I'll be blind until I decide Tesla has opened my eyes to the light.

Just to be clear here, you’re expecting the base model of the lowest end vehicle Tesla produces to earn ~25-66%(this is rounded down slightly, on both ends) higher margins than the highest average margins of any other auto manufacturer in the world(that would be Suzuki, with 11.8% margins with BMW in second at 11.4%) in order to not be short(via puts) TSLA.

 

[avoigt]

Today snapshot from Norway

Pacman is hungry

 

[avoigt]

On a personal note....

Wow what a feeling.... I just got a short message from Tesla that the delivery date for my P3D is in 3 days !!!

Some feelings are priceless!

 

[KarenRei]

On a personal note....

Wow what a feeling.... I just got a short message from Tesla that the delivery date for my P3D is in 3 days !!!

Some feelings are priceless!

 

[jerry33]

How about make the air conditioning an option. It used to be that way 20 years ago on all cars.

That would actually work for Canada. During my whole time there I don't recall having any car with A/C other than a rental.

 

[Navin]

Did judge give Tesla an opportunity to respond?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

That would actually work for Canada. During my whole time there I don't recall having any car with A/C other than a rental.

I mean, I can see how that might be feasible in terms of selling a car without AC, but how will that save Tesla any money on making the car? IIRC, they use a single component to both cool the battery and the cabin.

 

[Tenable]

I consider it entirely possible.

What Canada is attempting now with the Model 3 Germany did a couple of years ago for the Model S.

Tesla dropped the base price by 2k € (and had to deal with the German legal system), but got to sell the Model S with incentives - and naturally, the buyer could choose to get various options with their Model S. That is, choosing from the entire set of Tesla Model S options.

So for Canada, the question is:

To what extent can Tesla's ability to actually deliver the base Model 3 be limited without being deemed not actually having it for sale there?

I am convinced Tesla will try to answer that question.

Tesla could always sell the car for 1k less minus any internet connectivity or something critical and allow for its activation post purchase.

 

[jerry33]

I mean, I can see how that might be feasible in terms of selling a car without AC, but how will that save Tesla any money on making the car? IIRC, they use a single component to both cool the battery and the cabin.

It will allow the purchaser get the rebate. No, it won't save Tesla money, but my guess is that few will actually order without A/C, so overall there won't be that much cost. And since it's just software, they can purchase the A/C later.

 

[KarenRei]

Did judge give Tesla an opportunity to respond?

Musk's lawyer requested to submit a response by the 22nd. We're awaiting the judge's response.

 

[gene]

On a personal note....

Wow what a feeling.... I just got a short message from Tesla that the delivery date for my P3D is in 3 days !!!

Some feelings are priceless!

And thank you Alex for your contributions here to TMC and to Clean Technica.

 

[electronblue]

Just to be clear here, you’re expecting the base model of the lowest end vehicle Tesla produces to earn ~25-66%(this is rounded down slightly, on both ends) higher margins than the highest average margins of any other auto manufacturer in the world(that would be Suzuki, with 11.8% margins with BMW in second at 11.4%) in order to not be short(via puts) TSLA.

No opinion on @gringotuanis but just noting those margin examples are not really comparable as those margins are before dealer margin. Tesla doesn’t have dealerships so their margin may (and should) be higher in general.

 

[avoigt]

And thank you Alex for your contributions here to TMC and to Clean Technica.

Its been and it is a pleasure!

Great group of smart people here and I am grateful for all what I learned.

 

[madodel]

I've been following Tesla a long time. I recall when they weren't supposed to last more than a couple of months. I recall when they were never going to make the Model S because it wasn't possible to make that kind of a car. I recall when they were never going to get funding for the first Gigafactory. After a while, the doomsayers have become just so much noise.

Yes, and they keep recycling back to the same FUD. These lying idiots said the X was ugly and no one would buy it. A car that not only sells but people ask to take photos of. Something that I'd guess never happens with their ICE junk. They now say the same things about the Y.

These people lie for their agenda which is to stop Tesla's success. They come out of the woodwork like they have in the past few weeks, to try to tank the stock price and to make people believe their endless lies and misinformation to hinder sales. And now they desperately want to have Elon removed because he won't let them win.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

No opinion on @gringotuanis but just noting those margin examples are not really comparable as those margins are before dealer margin. Tesla doesn’t have dealerships so their margin may (and should) be higher in general.

Why? All that should matter is how much money they’re making, regardless of how they get there. If they can manage without dealers, that sounds like a good competitive advantage.

That aside, this is comparing the absolute barest of bare margin vehicle they produce with the average of all vehicles(+options) for the best of the best in the industry. Even if we pretend that it somehow matters whether Tesla “plays fair” by having dealers, that’s still an awfully large gap.

 

[electronblue]

Why? All that should matter is how much money they’re making, regardless of how they get there. If they can manage without dealers, that sounds like a good competitive advantage.

I was just speaking generally not about the lowest-cost model etc. Tesla’s margins have been higher than the industry and one reason is no dealerships. Comparing say BMWs margin with Tesla’s is not the same because latter includes margin to pay for the channel while BMW margin does not include the channel margin so this is just something to take into consideration.

The stores have their costs no matter who owns them. In any case, without a middle man Tesla’s margins can be expected to be higher than without (because the margin but also the cost is not shared with anyone) — and that seems to be part of why Tesla wants to close down some stores.

Maybe if Tesla can eliminate their stores they can survive with lower margins but just noting the comparison in general is not quite accurate yet.

 

[Fact Checking]

I think they might file a request to be relieved from the CD due to the SEC's bad faith in its negotiation and the mutual failure to agree on its terms. This would be an interesting tactics once the SEC suffered an initial defeat. Just an.idea

Would this mean the SEC is barred from re-filing the $420 lawsuit? If yes then I agree that would be an outcome Elon/Tesla (and shareholders) would be happy with.

If not then I don't think Elon would want the settlement to be invalidated - the SEC should be held to what they negotiated.

Here I'm assuming that Elon's motion to allow settlement negotiation details into evidence are beneficial to their position, i.e. that the following assertion is true:

"Mr. Musk would like to address the SEC’s unsupported assertions and submit
documentation reflecting the negotiation history between the SEC and Mr. Musk and Tesla, which undermines the newly-presented interpretation the SEC sets forth in its Reply."​

(I suppose that's actually true, not just zealous advocacy by defense lawyers. Should that evidence be submitted without seal we'll be able to judge that.)

​

 

[humbaba]

I love FCs analysis and arguments but I think his expected result is highly unlikely. I think EM should prevail. However there will be no sanctions penalty or damages against the SEC or its lawyers. The worst that will happen to them is they will lose. If the Court is greatly upset by their position or misleading quote etc, there may be some language from the Judge reflecting her displeasure. I don't like it any more than you but there will be no pound of flesh recovered from the government. My greatest hope is a reasonable interpretation of the consent decree from the Judge, a finding that EM did not violate the consent decree and a critique of the SEC for bringing this as a waste of everyone's time and money.

Yeah, I don't think the government ever gets more than a scolding. For example, here's one where there was significant overreach and yet all I can see are strong words.

https://cdn.ca9.uscourts.gov/datastore/opinions/2010/09/13/05-10067.pdf

These findings are binding on the government, but simple common sense leads to precisely the same conclusion: This was an obvious case of deliberate overreaching by the government in an effort to seize data as to which it lacked probable cause.

and

More than one of the judges involved in this case below commented that they felt misled or manipulated by the government’s apparent strategy of moving from district to district and judicial officer to judicial officer in pursuit of the same information, and without fully disclosing its efforts elsewhere.