Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

I also find it interesting that the SEC appears to be arguing that Musk must receive prior approval to certify that statements do not require prior approval.

They say he cannot unilaterally decide what statements need prior approval. That begs the question: who can make that decision?Again, the only reasonable conclusion to the SEC’s logic here is that he should be required to get prior approval before making any statement of any kind.

They argue that Musk’s logic would render the settlement meaningless, but that makes no sense either. The proper way to address the settlement would be to refer to the court any instance where:

1. A statement by Musk appears to cause significant stock movement
2. That statement would reasonably be considered material, given what Musk knew at the time
and
3. Said communication was not approved

That would both fully protect investors(ostensibly the SEC’s mission) and abide by Musk’s understanding of the settlement. And these aren’t unreasonable requirements. #1 allows that Musk might actually know what he’s doing when he thinks something isn’t material, #2 allows that total tangents could end up actually moving the stock and #3 allows him to fall back to a lawyer when he can’t decide.

 

[VValleyEV]

$44,9k CAD Model 3 comes standard with:

• No AC
• No heat
• No rear seat
• No passenger seat
• Brakes made extra-squealy.
• Software-limited to 30km range and 20kph top speed.
• Car constantly plays circus calliope music as you drive.
• Delivered with tires uninflated, just out of spite
• Front seat made of sack cloth wrapped around wooden boxes
• Paint job guaranteed to contain at least one ethnic or religious slur.
• Touchscreen interface modified to emulate Windows 3.1.
• Car comes filled of a mix of cat and dog hair
• Cannot guarantee that the car will be free of colonies of japanese giant hornets
• Every car individually cursed by priests of at least five indigenous religions.

You had me at the circus calliope music. An actual not metaphorical LOL.

 

[dgodfrey]

Vielen Dank! @lklundin

Since the last Int'l VINs were registered on March 6, we can estimate at least 3 days to produce this batch (allow 1 day to load the ship).

This analysis lends further credence to the theory that Tesla is now registering VINs just before production occurs (In this case perhaps just 2 days in advance).

This bodes ill for Bloomberg, who have already been shown to be retroactively covering up serious flaws in their estimates. Carsonight posted the screenshots on DISQUS: (combined+annotated below)

Bloomberg silently updated their 2018Q4 production 'estimates' on Jan 2nd, 2019 after Telsa announced actual results. The revision by Bloomberg was exactly 600 cars per week for the production rate during Q4, raising their production 'estimate' by 8,146 cars total for the quarter.

View attachment 388256

3 days later, Bloomberg then claimed on their website that their 'estimates' had been correct all along (see claim below). Of course, shortz and bears used the old, busted BB numbers throughout Q4 to drag on the SP, then just 3 days later Bloomberg tried to claim their numbers had been right all along:

View attachment 388263

Bloomberg never actually prints a single number for their estimate of 2018Q4 production, rather you have to compute that from Bloomberg's estimate for total production minus Tesla's previous production announcements:

Bloomberg's estimate for 2018Q4 production was (147,539 - 94,269) = 53,270. On their website, they write: "Bloomberg's forth-quarter estimate was off by less than 0.5 percent of Tesla's reported production."

In fact, Bloomberg's production estimate before the announcement was 13.2% below Telsa's actual production numbers as announced on Jan 2, 2019. Again, math is hard:

53,270 / 61,394 = 86.8%

Three days after Bloomberg retroactively edited their numbers, they claimed only a 0.5% error instead of admitting to the 13.2% error they actually achieved. HINT: it's no longer an estimate AFTER the numbers are announced. That's not a forecast, that's a HINDCAST, and they were still out by 281 Model 3s after they were given the results by Tesla.

Carsonight also notes that Bloomberg pulled the same trick with the 2018Q3 Model 3 production estimates, which is why he made before and after screenshots of the 2018Q4 estimates. You can bet that he (and others) will be watching carefully to see what Bloomberg does with its 2019Q1 estimates.

Its time we call out the financial media who are misrepresenting their data, and hiding their own role in the deceit.

Regards,
Lodger

This screenshot concept should also be applied to the analysts that do the same kind of back door adjustments. They are even worse as their's is a blatant attempt to put Tesla in a bad light. I think the Q3 production had some analysts raise their projections by 10k the week before numbers came out when they realized their already optimistic numbers that they expected would be a miss would actually be low. Unfrigginbelievable.

 

[elasalle]

Other problem: The Model 3 SR starts at ~$48k in Canada, not $46k. ($47,600) So they would have to drop it by $2,601, that is over 5%. So unless they really strip options out of the car I don't think that is possible. (And what is left to strip other than software?)

And I don't see that we have details about if the under $45k limit is before or after options. If it is after options then I say there is a 99.99999% chance that Tesla won't do anything.

Does M3 have a price cut for next 2 days? Does it meet the requirements with the price cut? If so maybe Tesla can just leave that price for Canada for few more days ....

+ I think more SuperChargers needed for Canada now ...

 

[Pras]

You had me at the circus calliope music. An actual not metaphorical LOL.

How about disable Bluetooth FM and AM and offer as entertainment option.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

not sure of the dettails, budget just came out. It is most likely there to exclude Tesla. Just like what Ontario did. Quite ironic how Progressive Canada will do this. But fear not, they've painted themselves into a corner as the limit is set now. $1000. AC'd work as there's an additional $100 ac tax.

Maybe they know people don’t need an insentive to buy a Tesla. It’s already priced low enough. They just want to help out the poor saps that decide to buy a Bolt or a Leaf.

 

[UncaNed]

Canadian federal 2019 Budget just came out. There's a $5000 federal EV incentive for EV under 45k. Model 3 SR currently sits at 46k. So if Tesla can somehow cut enough cost by about 1000 in the future, sales should pop more. Combined with the $5000 incentive already in BC that is $10000, Vancouver should be a hotbed for Tesla M3 SR.

Discount a new short range, software limited model for cheaper. They could always buy the miles back later.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Discount a new short range, software limited model for cheaper. They could always buy the miles back later.

Out of all suggestions, probably easiest to implement...

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Maybe they know people don’t need an insentive to buy a Tesla. It’s already priced low enough. They just want to help out the poor saps that decide to buy a Bolt or a Leaf.

From what I’ve seen, Bolt is priced too high as well(which makes sense, it costs more than the Model 3 SR)

 

[dgodfrey]

I was just speaking generally not about the lowest-cost model etc. Tesla’s margins have been higher than the industry and one reason is no dealerships. Comparing say BMWs margin with Tesla’s is not the same because latter includes margin to pay for the channel while BMW margin does not include the channel margin so this is just something to take into consideration.

The stores have their costs no matter who owns them. In any case, without a middle man Tesla’s margins can be expected to be higher than without (because the margin but also the cost is not shared with anyone) — and that seems to be part of why Tesla wants to close down some stores.

Maybe if Tesla can eliminate their stores they can survive with lower margins but just noting the comparison in general is not quite accurate yet.

Or, if the margins are similar, Tesla will offer more car for less money. That's seems more in line with their mission possibly.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

Discount a new short range, software limited model for cheaper. They could always buy the miles back later.

heck, they can sell LR software limited to 80miles for $44.9K!!!
And M3P software limited to 15miles for $44.9K

 

[hacer]

@teslataxisea "People are asking us, “what is the Max SOC for the Model 3 after 42,000 miles driven”. Prior to the software update, our max SOC was 308-310 on a hot day. Now we’re achieving 324 of 325. It appears that the pack needed to be balanced out before. Officially SOC has lost 1 mile"

Reports here of basically zero degradation on Model 3 battery after 42k miles. In fact, range has actually increased 14 miles due to Tesla's software update.

Has anyone seen any other data for high mileage Model 3s?

With 11k on our 1.1 year old model 3, I can say there has been zero loss of range, instead it jumped up after the OTA update. Really wish I could say that about my S @ 36k miles.

 

[madodel]

$44,9k CAD Model 3 comes standard with:

• No AC
• No heat
• No rear seat
• No passenger seat
• Brakes made extra-squealy.
• Software-limited to 30km range and 20kph top speed.
• Car constantly plays circus calliope music as you drive.
• Delivered with tires uninflated, just out of spite
• Front seat made of sack cloth wrapped around wooden boxes
• Paint job guaranteed to contain at least one ethnic or religious slur.
• Touchscreen interface modified to emulate Windows 3.1.
• Car comes filled of a mix of cat and dog hair
• Cannot guarantee that the car will be free of colonies of japanese giant hornets
• Every car individually cursed by priests of at least five indigenous religions.

Is barbed wire seat belts an option? Despite all that people will still prefer and buy a Tesla over a BMW, Jaguar or any other cockamamie compliance car.

 

[Tenable]

heck, they can sell LR software limited to 80miles for $44.9K!!!
And M3P software limited to 15miles for $44.9K

I actually LOL'd at the thought of someone doing a P3D launch and being out of juice.

 

[dgodfrey]

How about disable Bluetooth FM and AM and offer as entertainment option.

I think it needs to be something software related that:

1. Doesn't affect the base configuration at all
2. Nobody would buy the car without it
3. Easy for Tesla to "turn it back on"

Like the lesser range idea, same battery pack but gimped to 180 miles. Or, navigation, Bluetooth, heated seats (probably a hit in Canada).
I mean how much did the miss the number by? Isn't it less than $2k. And how the heck does the Bolt qualify? Here in the USA the cheapest Bolt retails for more than the SR+ for crying out loud.

 

[elasalle]

Oh Canada ..
M3 price 45K
Transport cost = current price + 2K

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla could always sell the car for 1k less minus any internet connectivity or something critical and allow for its activation post purchase.

Software limit the system and charge 45K...after purchase activation of HVAC...1K..via wifi.

You guys keep missing that it isn't just $1k. It is actually $2,600.01 that the price would need to be dropped.

 

[RobStark]

Canadian federal 2019 Budget just came out. There's a $5000 federal EV incentive for EV under 45k. Model 3 SR currently sits at 46k. So if Tesla can somehow cut enough cost by about 1000 in the future, sales should pop more. Combined with the $5000 incentive already in BC that is $10000, Vancouver should be a hotbed for Tesla M3 SR.

Tesla should make Model 3 Canuck Edition for $44,999

Replace standard wheels/aero covers with 16" steelies and cheapest tires that are still safe.

Maybe remove some software. And offer it later as an upgrade.

 

[ReflexFunds]

$44,9k CAD Model 3 comes standard with:

• No AC
• No heat
• No rear seat
• No passenger seat
• Brakes made extra-squealy.
• Software-limited to 30km range and 20kph top speed.
• Car constantly plays circus calliope music as you drive.
• Delivered with tires uninflated, just out of spite
• Front seat made of sack cloth wrapped around wooden boxes
• Paint job guaranteed to contain at least one ethnic or religious slur.
• Touchscreen interface modified to emulate Windows 3.1.
• Car comes filled of a mix of cat and dog hair
• Cannot guarantee that the car will be free of colonies of japanese giant hornets
• Every car individually cursed by priests of at least five indigenous religions.

You joke, but a simple software limit to 100 miles or so could actually work depending on Canada's criteria. Almost nobody is going to buy that, but if it makes the whole Model 3 range eligible for subsidies, Tesla will make significant additional profit from customers using their subsidy to trade up options.

 

[MP3Mike]

Does M3 have a price cut for next 2 days? Does it meet the requirements with the price cut? If so maybe Tesla can just leave that price for Canada for few more days ....

+ I think more SuperChargers needed for Canada now ...

No, the SR version doesn't have a price cut, and no it doesn't currently qualify.