Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Causalien]

RobinTrack shows No. of accts holding TSLA at an all time high today. It's the wisdom of the crowd, applied to the stock market. I tend to agree with their judgement (over some Wall St analcyst).

Cheers!

View attachment 389335

Wallstreet has a tendency to harvest Robinhood users. My guess is that this is the same thing. As they see retail gamblesr loading up on Tesla, they start shorting it more and more knowing that they will eventually capitulate. However, I am surprised that the Robinhood users held on through a $100 drop.

Brothers, thank you. My opinion of Robinhood users have definitely changed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m wondering how much the referral program is a means to reign in social media nastyness - the reward is not that costly but it ensures all the insufferable influencers don’t join the FUD side..,

Lol, surely you FRED... (u gatta b FREDding me?)

 

[Fact Checking]

If only the SEC had made that call...

Let's be glad the SEC picked a true and accurate tweet, then continued to lie and mislead about it.

Much easier to convince the court that the SEC is full of it.

It would have been harder for Elon to defend against SEC censorship had he made some genuine mistake.

 

[Navin]

Let's be glad the SEC picked a true and accurate tweet, then continued to lie and mislead about it.

Much easier to convince the court that the SEC is full of it.

It would have been harder for Elon to defend against SEC censorship had he made some genuine mistake.

So what now?

 

[mongo]

As far as I recall, actual text of the settlement signed by Judge was as attached, with 5/b/ii explicitly mentioning pre-approval. Correct me if I am mistaken.

Oversight of all (review)
Preapproval only in regards to material or could be material. (This must be self policing determination otherwise it would be pre approval of all)

 

[Pras]

Let's be glad the SEC picked a true and accurate tweet, then continued to lie and mislead about it.

Much easier to convince the court that the SEC is full of it.

It would have been harder for Elon to defend against SEC censorship had he made some genuine mistake.

I agree. My read is that SEC was pissed because Elon didn’t consent to seek approval for all tweets. So they were waiting for the first opportunity to strike at him. Unfortunately they jumped the gun. They wish they’d read the transcript. Oh! So many times we common people miss to read the details. Now Elon’s got them by the balls (at least the male attorneys in SEC).

 

[alst]

So what now?

Second that, can the judge make the final decision any time now?

 

[Carl Raymond]

RobinTrack shows No. of accts holding TSLA at an all time high today. It's the wisdom of the crowd, applied to the stock market. I tend to agree with their judgement (over some Wall St analcyst).

Cheers!

View attachment 389335

Great to see. The SEC cloud has effectively knocked out the Institutional investors who cannot afford to stick their neck out until the case is resolved.

Basically "discount shares for individuals ". Fantastic that the little guys (like me) are getting the advantage for a change.

 

[Thekiwi]

View attachment 389265

Tour secured. If anyone has questions for me to ask, hold them as I couldn't tell you the answers anyway.

One thing about these tours and the NDA or whatever it is they make you promise not to disclose any info from the tour. Surely they don’t give non-public production rate numbers do they? Because if they did, then anyone hearing those numbers and making any sort of trade of Tesla stock or options would be breaking insider trading laws.

Right?

 

[gene]

One thing about these tours and the NDA or whatever it is they make you promise not to disclose any info from the tour. Surely they don’t give non-public production rate numbers do they? Because if they did, then anyone hearing those numbers and making any sort of trade of Tesla stock or options would be breaking insider trading laws.

Right?

I've done the tour three times. There really is no hard info anyone is going to get that moves the stock. For me it was influential for me to invest more just because it is exciting to see all the activity going on.

 

[watteau]

Oversight of all (review)
Preapproval only in regards to material or could be material. (This must be self policing determination otherwise it would be pre approval of all)

thanks, clearer now

 

[Causalien]

I agree. My read is that SEC was pissed because Elon didn’t consent to seek approval for all tweets. So they were waiting for the first opportunity to strike at him. Unfortunately they jumped the gun. They wish they’d read the transcript. Oh! So many times we common people miss to read the details. Now Elon’s got them by the balls (at least the male attorneys in SEC).

My interpretation of the whole affair is thus.

The actual lawyer at SEC who made the deal have left to be partner somewhere else. So the memory of what was agreed upon is lost. Hence when some short contacted SEC and ask them to reign in Elon with this tweet ( a short who has no idea what the actual deal is), the SEC lawyer just complied without knowing the details themself thinking that the short probably knows all the details as well (since SEC don't have the manpower to go after hard to win cases and like the FAA, they outsource any checking to the parties that has conflict of interest to save on salary). The lawyer who made the contempt filing was dreaming of a future new job as a partner somewhere.

That's the only reason I can think of that made the SEC file such an order. They have to have lost the knowledge of the deal somewhere.

This is just my really dark interpretation of the world on what must've led to this. Ocam's razor and Hanlon's razor probably says something else. Let's call this Causalien's Razor.

Elon, being the optimist he is, probably think that the SEC really wants to do right by the shareholders and is helping him to not hurt Tesla stock anymore. Let's call this Elon's Razor.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Somewhat balanced:

Elon Musk says the SEC’s attempt to hold him in contempt is ‘virtually wrong at every level’

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

@Esme Es Mejor I wouldn't count on 30k deliveries in Europe... I mean, that would be more than all 2018!
Tesla Europe Registration Stats

My personal bullish estimate is half of that, 15-16k.
They already sold 5k, so March is gonna be the moment of truth. I believe 10k in March alone is possible, but 25k??
Remember that we know Netherlands and possibly UK sales are going real slow, so the heavy lifting will be all on the shoulders of Norway (which will be 4-5k) and Germany.
We hear rumors of Switzerland going to 2000k (!!), and if that's the same for Belgium, France and Sweden you may be right...
Still I think 30k total is out of the picture, but hope to be wrong.

I hear ya. I have a hard time believing they’ll hit 30k in Europe, but that’s what the numbers are suggesting so far.

They delivered about 800 Model 3 in Norway in February, and more than 3000 already in March (on pace for well over 4000). That is, 5x as many in March as in February. If that same growth happens in the rest of Europe, 5k in February becomes 25k in March— 30k total for the quarter.

That said, there’s no guarantee that deliveries in the rest of Europe grow as fast as they did in Norway. If the rest of Europe (4200 in Feb) only doubles (8400 in March), we end up around 18k for the quarter.

So the most conservative estimate I can come up with is 18k Europe + 10k China + 33k North America = 61k Model 3 worldwide.

 

[KarenRei]

I just don't believe that they've sent near 30k to Europe. The data I've seen suggests no more than an average of 2,5k per ship, and possibly a lower average. Meaning 20k, maybe less. Same to China. Looks like 40k, maybe less, by RORO from Pier 80. Not excluding other means of shipping, but RORO shipping from Pier 80 is certainly going to be the predominant means for those markets.

Then you have US + Canada + Mexico, and "all other international, S+X only". E.g. UK, E. Europe, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, etc etc etc.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Same thing that caught my eye. So I guess we're still waiting for the 26th. Can't imagine that the judge can just retract the offer of time until the 26th without an official filing from Musk's team waiving it.

Possibly they may be waiting to see if the SEC requests another reply and then decide. ??

 

[Doggydogworld]

Well slower than Tesla makes cars

But we make our comments with love....

 

[Mike Smith]

Found this embarrassing error in Musk's SEC response:

"The SEC, however, does not offer any clear definition of what this standard means (or meant at the time of the Order), effectively turning it into a sword to be yielded whenever the SEC sees fit."

Pretty sure that should be 'sword to be wielded'.

 

[lklundin]

So it's said. But Pier 80 looks pretty dang barren on satellite. While Tesla was actively shipping:

View attachment 389315

Since then:
View attachment 389316

Right. Per the same twitter source, there is about 100 cars at Pier 80 now - and no activity,
Still trying to get to the cool table. on Twitter

 

[SpudLime]

https://electrek.co/2018/03/27/tesla-mcu-retrofits-new-software-update-elon-musk/

This should make some folks happy. Old hardware retrofit.