Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Esme Es Mejor]

I just don't believe that they've sent near 30k to Europe. The data I've seen suggests no more than an average of 2,5k per ship, and possibly a lower average. Meaning 20k, maybe less. Same to China. Looks like 40k, maybe less, by RORO from Pier 80. Not excluding other means of shipping, but RORO shipping from Pier 80 is certainly going to be the predominant means for those markets.

Then you have US + Canada + Mexico, and "all other international, S+X only". E.g. UK, E. Europe, S. Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Taiwan, etc etc etc.

Yeah, that’s a big part of why I have a hard time believing the growth in Norway applies to the rest of Europe. I believe Alpha Hat estimated 1500 cars on the first ship to Europe, and 2500 each on the next few ships. It’s possible they increased the numbers on the last 3-4 ships, but we shouldn’t count on it. If those remained at 2500/ship, then they only sent 19k Model 3s to Europe. And you can’t deliver what you don’t send.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the ball game: [During settlement negotiations between the parties]

The SEC sought a broad pre-approval requirement with respect to Musk’s Tesla-related tweets, was told that Tesla and Musk would not agree, and conceded the point. It now seeks to achieve through a contempt hearing that which it could not through settlement.​

If this is accepted as uncontested evidence, the SEC loses, full stop. So the SEC will fight it of course. Delay, extend at a minimum. They are supporting an external campaign targeting TSLA market valuation. Judging by recent public comments from MS/Adam Janus (overvalued on fundamentals and undervalued strategically).

The play seems to be a buyout attempt by some 3rd party. Hence the need to drive down the SP to scare current shareholders into releasing their stake in TSLA. Seems to be working on some institutions, and doing the opposite with some retail investors.

Haha, good luck getting Elon to sell. He only needs 1/3rd of outstanding shares to vote with him to defeat a buyout attempt. Hope Elon is lining up his billionaire angels right now.

Of course some of you may sell at an 380/420/480 offer but me, my investment timeframe is 2027, so I think I'll just continue to HODL.

Tesla is in the best shape they've ever been, strong FCF, about to knock it out of the park on Q1 deliveries, and smoother production + delivery issues heading into Q2/3.

After GF3/Shanghai starts printing money building Model 3 SR in Q4, Wall St can wave goodbye from the dock as this ship sets sail.

Too bad ya missed the sailing, you'll catch the next boat fer sure, buoys.

Cheers!

 

[Carl Raymond]

Somewhat balanced:

Elon Musk says the SEC’s attempt to hold him in contempt is ‘virtually wrong at every level’

It lacks an explanation for why the tweet was immaterial.
Close watchers went *shrug* nothing new here, and the stock didn't budge.
The SEC, not paying attention, thought they saw a revenge opportunity for Musk's 60 minutes comment and leapt at a shadow.
Got I hope they pay.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

The growth in Norway no way applies to the rest of Europe for some specific reasons. But Europe is big market overall. Shame they can't include the UK in the Q1 Model 3 figures.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla will offer MCU retrofits and a new software update is coming for old MCUs, says Elon Musk

This should make some folks happy. Old hardware retrofit.

Year old article

 

[MP3Mike]

I just don't believe that they've sent near 30k to Europe. The data I've seen suggests no more than an average of 2,5k per ship, and possibly a lower average.

So when Elon tweeted the picture of 4k cars waiting to be loaded you think those were going on two different ships?

 

[Cartegena]

$. IMO we're close to a massive rebound now that the "March bond narrative" has passed.

New Day, next narrative --"While Tesla Inc.'s(TSLA) 5.3% notes due 2025 were recently down just 0.25 cents on the dollar, their extra yield over Treasurys at one point Friday jumped to 5.99 percentage points -- their highest on record -- from 5.83 percentage points Thursday, according to MarketAxess. " DJ News Wire

Opportunity or stay away?

 

[KarenRei]

So when Elon tweeted the picture of 4k cars waiting to be loaded you think those were going on two different ships?

Yes.

 

[Xpert]

they won't pay anything even if they lose...other than maybe those SEC lawyers won't be able to get any promised windfalls from the short-sellers for whom they were working hard. and maybe well, their shameless reputation.

At this point it looks like the worst (being kicked out of Tesla) might be over for Elon, I'm glad this had happened and I think Elon will learn to be extra careful from here on.

 

[elasalle]

.
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So when Elon tweeted the picture of 4k cars waiting to be loaded you think those were going on two different ships?

EM's email to staff suggests initial shortage of parts for EU. Also production lines must have slowed while switching to EU/CHN vehicles. So maybe initially they were sending less (1500 ) and keeping up the facade. EM's pic of 4K might have been time of overcoming that barrier and declaring a victory (of sorts) and negating the FUD.

Seeking Alpa data posted earlier today had data for 1st 10 ships. Most of the RORO's were supposed to have large capacity above 4K.

So all in, the number of cars/ship should have increased over the quarter (else paying RORO for overcapacity) ...

 

[brian45011]

I am interested in whether EM will ask for an evidentiary hearing.

Why would competent counsel countenance that? Even though it's a civil proceeding with no presumption of innocence, the burden of proof using a Clear & Convincing standard is on the movant. Seems like Elon would be an inevitable witness under oath in any evidentiary hearing, and it would provide the SEC an "open season" for any line of inquiry, restrained only by defense counsel's objections and the bench's lack of patience

 

[Causalien]

So, after having some time with my Model 3. I realized something.

The stock price is like this because there's a big disconnect between shareholder/car owners vs shareholder/non car owners.

While not owning the vehicle, I was able to rationally speculate what the current stock price is. And everything works based on TA and fundamentals and it should be like this. I can say that I managed to stay rational even after having test drove it and ridden in a few.

However after I've driven the car for a while the conclusion is that rationality is gone. There's a disbelief at how others cannot see that this is the future. I believe this is the reason why the stock price always bottom out at around $240. Even after all the worst thing that can happen to a stock happens.

The other thing I noticed is that I don't get the usual buyer's remorse after spending money on high $$$ figure items.

 

[Doggydogworld]

So all in, the number of cars/ship should have increased over the quarter (else paying RORO for overcapacity) ...

I read nominal capacity is quoted in terms of 1980s Toyota Corollas, actual capacity of today's larger cars is less. Also, the ships may also carry other cars, e.g. load Hyundais in Korea, drop some off in CA, pick up some Teslas then deliver both Teslas and Hyundais in Europe. Then pick up some BMWs in Europe to take to Asia, etc.

 

[Esme Es Mejor]

So when Elon tweeted the picture of 4k cars waiting to be loaded you think those were going on two different ships?

That’s a good point, but her point still stands— it’s highly unlikely Tesla shipped 30k Model 3 to Europe this quarter.

If the last 4 ships to Europe all carried 4K cars, Tesla could have shipped 25k Model 3 to Europe. Assuming some small number don’t get delivered until April, that’s a realistic ceiling of 23-24k Model 3 delivered to Europe this quarter. Floor of maybe 17-18k delivered.

Ps— @KarenRei thanks for talking me down from my optimism. The more realistic numbers still look pretty good, though.

 

[brian45011]

I think many of Boeing's problems can be laid at the feet of Mullally, and his short-term focused policies. You'll see the same problems pop-up at Ford soon too.

That's silly. He left BA over a dozen years ago---short term???

"Mulally was named Boeing’s president of Commercial Airplanes in September 1998. The responsibility of chief executive officer for the business unit was added in March 2001. Previously, Mulally served as president of Boeing Information, Space & Defense Systems and senior vice president of The Boeing Company. Appointed to that role in February 1997, he was responsible for Boeing’s defense, space and government business. Beginning in 1994, Mulally was senior vice president of Airplane Development for Boeing Commercial Airplanes Group, responsible for all airplane development activities, flight test operations, certification and government technical liaison. Earlier, Mulally served as Boeing’s vice president of Engineering, and as vice president and general manager of the 777 program. Mulally joined Boeing in 1969 and progressed through a number of significant engineering and program-management assignments, including contributions on the 727, 737, 747, 757, 767, 777 and 787 airplanes."​

It's akin to claiming what ever issues TSLA may or may not have had in the last several years should be "laid at the feet of Eberhard"

 

[Thekiwi]

Yeah, that’s a big part of why I have a hard time believing the growth in Norway applies to the rest of Europe. I believe Alpha Hat estimated 1500 cars on the first ship to Europe, and 2500 each on the next few ships. It’s possible they increased the numbers on the last 3-4 ships, but we shouldn’t count on it. If those remained at 2500/ship, then they only sent 19k Model 3s to Europe. And you can’t deliver what you don’t send.

What about S&X? They would be included in that number shipped wouldn’t they? Which would decrease the amount of 3s sent to Europe if so.

 

[MP3Mike]

So we have two things from the same day, 2/19/2019, this:

Elon Musk‏Verified account @elonmusk Feb 19
4000 Tesla cars loading in SF for Europe

and this:

I also noticed the following ship estimates by Alpha Hat:

We know that the next ship to hit SFO was the Glovis Star, on 2/25/2019, also headed for Europe.

So that makes one of two things likely:

• Tesla had ~4k cars at the dock before Grand Venus showed up and a lot sat there waiting for the second ship so there was only ~2k Teslas on each ship.
• Tesla kept bringing cars and there were close to 4k cars on each of those ships.

Some assumptions:

• Tesla is making ~1,100 cars per day. (~850 Model 3s, ~210 Model S&Xs)
• There is a ship departing once every ~4 days.
• There was no factory downtime during this time period
• Tesla has said that almost all January and February production was for Europe/China.

So from 1/11 through 2/21 (when Grand Venus departed) Tesla would have made ~45k cars, and during that time ~10 ships departed. That would put it at close to 4,500 cars per ship. (Assuming that there was no production for North America.)

So I really think that the ~2,500 per ship is under estimating shipments, as that would mean that only half of the production was heading to Europe/China which doesn't line up with what Tesla has shared with us.

There were 16 ships that departed, 8 to Europe, 8 to China, between 2/11 and 3/10 with the last two estimated to arrive on 3/24 (1 Europe, 1 China). How many cars can they get unloaded, transported, prepped, and delivered in the last week of March?

 

[anthonyj]

“The net result is a massive wave of deliveries needed throughout Europe, China and North America. This is the biggest wave in Tesla's history, but it is primarily a function of our first delivery of mass manufactured cars on two continents simultaneously, and will not be repeated in subsequent quarters.” -Elon Musk to employees

Yeah, cuz he’s taking Tesla private to avoid all this BS. Ellison and friends loading the mothership on Robinhood. Yup yup that’s right. Announcement will be on 4/20. $420.69 just to stick it to the shorts.

 

[Sparky]

Seems this is more about esVolta's problems securing financing but may be spun negatively for Tesla.
PG&E Bankruptcy Threatens Major Battery Storage Project

(Reuters) - A major battery storage project that would help California replace three of its natural gas power plants may need to be scrapped as a result of PG&E Corp's bankruptcy, according to court documents filed this week.
....
Because PG&E can reject contracts in bankruptcy, energy developer esVolta LP said in papers filed with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court in San Francisco on Wednesday that it feared it would not be able to line up financing for its 75 megawatt Hummingbird battery storage project.

'Hummingbird's position is becoming untenable,' esVolta said in the filing, noting PG&E had said it was not in a position to make a decision on whether to keep or reject its contract for using the planned battery-storage facility.

The company is one of four that received large battery storage contracts from PG&E last year as clean, cost-effective alternatives to three Calpine Corp natural gas generators in northern California.

The others are Tesla Inc, Vistra Energy Corp unit Dynegy and Micronoc Inc.

PG&E said it had not made any decisions about assuming or rejecting contracts as part of its bankruptcy proceeding.
.....

Tesla declined to comment on its contract, which is for a 182.5 MW project that would be owned by PG&E. Neither Dynegy nor Micronoc responded to requests for comment on their projects, which are for a 300 MW facility and 10 MW of storage, respectively. One megawatt is capable of powering about 750 homes at once.

The California Public Utilities Commission, which approved the contracts last year, said it was confident the Tesla, Dynegy and Micronoc contracts would not be affected.

 

[EVNow]

The reason they are pushing this quarter could also be to compensate for $900m bond payment. So they may have less buffer for cash this quarter. Second point is about more regular shipping and logistics which is pointed by a few already.

Its as if some who comment on these have no idea how corporate America works.

Microsoft with more cash they knew what to do with(>$90 B) , always had a HUGE push at the end of every quarter (especially year end). This is how corporate America - driven by quarterly earnings - works.