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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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Don't forget about people in the US trying to get the $3,750 tax credit that drops in half starting in Q3. That should drive some additional US demand.

Good point: $3,500 is the median federal tax liability IIRC, and the $35k SR will probably enable a lot of families with lower levels of tax liabilities to get basically 10% off the price of their car.

For them this is still a "full" tax incentive.

Lots of people who simply couldn't even dream of buying a Tesla will now have the opportunity to get it 10% less expensive.

Could be a busy quarter in the U S. ...
 
Come June it's once more going to be all hands on deck for a mad dash and there will again be some kind of excuse ('we just launched SR for Europe' seems a convenient one), some kind of pat-on-the-back-sorry-you-are-incredible leaked email from Elon and then the next quarter will roll on again.

For those trigger happy to disagree : I am making not a single value statement in this post. It's just factual observation.

Is that future present tense, and unvalued excuses? ;)

As long as in transit has a cost to it, and as long as the balance sheet is sensitive that level of cost, overseas cars will ship starting at beginning of quarter and arrive though near the end of the quarter. However, as production rates increase, the shipments can happen earlier in the quarter. As GF3 comes on-line, the number of cars being shipped may also decrease (though, due to trim level, maybe not by much). The EU parts issue probably didn't help either...

Give Tesla another quarter or so, and their balance sheet will be less impacted by ship with cars and things will be able to even out.
 
Yeah, I realize that you are playing the devil's advocate in a sense, but Norway begs to differ on the first point:

Evolution_Norgewian_passenger_car_market_share_by_fuel.png


On the second point, while EVs help with global warming, both global warming and EV transition will happen with a very high likelihood.

Yes, EV-friendly policies can speed up the EV transition like in Norway, but EV transition is going to happen anyway, even in the U.S. that does everything it can do on the policy level to help the incumbents.

In the end there's going to be a list of the largest players in the trillion dollars EV industry and the bear case has trouble explaining why Tesla won't be among those players.

So I consider the "rational bear case" entirely discredited.

Can anyone defend the "rational bear case" please? No genuine Tesla bears left here I think, there were only trolls who got themselves banned. :D
 
Under category of nice to see:

I’m watching an Euro Qualifier, Hungary vs Croatia, and VW was running a full stadium ad around the pitch on their upcoming EV, ID.

Can’t help think that the more they publicize and legitimatize the EV Market, the better for Tesla since the Model 3 is shipping now and is such an outstanding product.

Btw: it’s been run multiple times.
 
Yeah, I realize that you are playing the devil's advocate in a sense, but Norway begs to differ on the first point:

Evolution_Norgewian_passenger_car_market_share_by_fuel.png


On the second point, while EVs help with global warming, both global warming and EV transition will happen with a very high likelihood.

Yes, EV-friendly policies can speed up the EV transition like in Norway, but EV transition is going to happen anyway, even in the U.S. that does everything it can do on the policy level to help the incumbents.

In the end there's going to be a list of the largest players in the trillion dollars EV industry and the bear case has trouble explaining why Tesla won't be among those players.

So I consider the "rational bear case" entirely discredited.

Can anyone defend the "rational bear case" please? No genuine Tesla bears left here I think, there were only trolls who got themselves banned. :D

This got me to wondering (am on the road again today; no real computer to do research):
Considering the world’s leading GDP economies, how many are NOT burdened with the legacy of a domestic auto manufacturing sector? Norway, Singapore... Perhaps Switzerland and Finland but even they have exposure to OEM suppliers, I believe.
Norway has just about everything to gain and virtually nothing to lose, other than the removed-by-several-degrees hydrocarbon extractive sector.
Sitting high in the catbird seat - lucky them!
 
Configurator says May delivery at the moment... Where did he get August from?

If US SR/SR+ orders have been extremely strong, it could make sense to dedicate Q2 production fully to the US to ensure access to the tax credit before the next step down. However I think this is very unlikely unless we start to see significant reports of August delivery dates and a change from May to August estimate in the European & Chinese configurator.
 
I believe @neroden's broader point was that Tesla's minimum fair value is $360/share even in a low growth scenario - i.e. it defines a lower boundary for TSLA valuation.

Lol, understand and point well taken, but two tiny quibbles: :D
  1. the 12.65x multiple is the average across S&P500 companies, so technically a $362 SP would be an estimate of 'central tendancy', rather than a min. value
  2. I'd also prefer to say 'fair value was' [18Q4] rather than 'is' since Tesla's [19Q1] has increased Model 3 production approx. 50% (7K vs 4.6K)
This last point explains [some of] the large gap between Friday's SP and Q4 fair value. Obviously, shortz are betting [dreaming] that prod. + deliveries are down, while (I think) a fair number of us here on TMC are betting numbers are up.

We should know in about 6-7 trading days. Will stay tuned.

Cheers!

P.S. Thanks for all your wonderful weekend analysis. It's like a 'comet' of content! ;)
 
This got me to wondering (am on the road again today; no real computer to do research):
Considering the world’s leading GDP economies, how many are NOT burdened with the legacy of a domestic auto manufacturing sector? Norway, Singapore... Perhaps Switzerland and Finland but even they have exposure to OEM suppliers, I believe.
Norway has just about everything to gain and virtually nothing to lose, other than the removed-by-several-degrees hydrocarbon extractive sector.
Sitting high in the catbird seat - lucky them!

The biggest one, by far: China!
 
I just tried the configurator with a few different countries.
China said March delivery, all EU countries I tried said estimated May or May delivery.

Whatever happens with production in the next couple of months, I think (and hope) that it's a fair bet they will also have to accommodate RHD Model 3s in that as well. Maybe that has a bearing on what customers with firm orders are being told?
 
earlier I referenced "Red Barchetta" by Rush, but I didn't elaborate why I felt it was an appropriate song. So for those who don't know:

In 1973 there was a short story published in Road & Track[1] that fantasized about a dystopian future where the government over-regulated automotive safety to the point that only huge, gas guzzling SUV's were allowed to be made (the author calls them "Modern Safety Vehicles"). Because injuries went down, drivers became reckless (apparently that is the only logical consequence of improved safety) and the accident rates went up.

Inspired by this story, Peart crafted a song in which a motor law prohibits older cars, despite which the protagonist goes for a drive in a red Barchetta. He is nearly run down by the road monster SUVs, but escapee's them across a narrow bridge.

How do I see this relating to Tesla?

First, Tesla's cars -- while not technically barchettas -- are high performance vehicles. The sort of vehicle that inspire drivers the way the driver in the original story and in the song are inspired.

Second, Tesla turns the premise on its head by exceeding government regulation safety standards to achieve the safest car[2] while still maintaining high efficiency and performance. This appeals strongly to my sense of irony.

Third, various state governments have taken specific action to outlaw Tesla. While they are currently only making sales and service illegal the SEC is currently trying to take Tesla apart through the office of "government oversight" for the "protection" of the people.

Fourth, heck its Rush, do I need any other reason? My daughter would ask for "the owl album" from a young age[3] :D

Although metallic blue is still my favorite color, the idea of a red M3P with a "RED BARCHETTA" vanity plate is incredibly appealing.

So, is this off topic? For investing? Yeah, okay, ya got me. But the first three are, I believe valid ties between the Rush song and Tesla. If I was doing a Tesla commercial it would simply be a red M3P swinging through a country highway before being assaulted by two SUVs (hmmm... license plates "SEC" and "MBS"?), evading them and escaping per the song. All set to "Red Barchetta" of course.

1) preserved at A Nice Morning Drive : How-To Library : The MG Experience

2) "safest car" is easy to say, but difficult to demonstrate. However, for this purpose the NHTSA safety testing results are adequate as they measure "lowest probability of occupant injury" which is the same standard referred to in the short story. And the top three spots are all Tesla.

3) though nowadays her favorite is AKB48, bar none. But that is a longer decidedly off topic story :rolleyes:
 
Ordered a Mercedes, WTF?
I know. I was out with him last Friday night. He had the nerve to say my Tesla was more apt to kill me in a battery fire than I was to die in a Boeing 737 Max 8 crash.

He drove us in his three year old Mercedes SUV company car. He’s an engineer/manager for Freightliner. I couldn’t help but notice how pathetic the drivetrain was, but I kept it to myself.
 
8-8 ships went to Europe and China - do you agree that this probably suggest that the production output was split roughly 50%/50%?


I suspect it's a little more lopsided than that. Looking at the source data from the ship tracker, the 8 ships bound for China spent an average of 2.12 days in port 80 vs. 2.87 days for the Europe bound ships. Linear loading is certainly a rough assumption, but probably reasonable. Given this, I'd estimate roughly 16K-17K for China and 23K-24K to Europe.

I'm further assuming about 1K cars/day loading based on almost data. The Elon tweet of 4K cars was synchronous with the Grand Venus in port 80 and it was there for about 4 days. So that's a gross extrapolation that leads to a total of 40K cars combined for Europe and China. Regardless, of the final amount, I expect the ratio of roughly 42% China, 58% Europe to apply.
 
WOT (Weekend Off Topic) consolation prize:

Here's a gift for all you lords and ladies, and although Valentine's Day is again far off, perhaps snuggle this one away for next year's, or, as well, if another Special Day is anon, this also would well serve.

Many many years and romances ago, I discovered the following deep within a Tennyson poem. I carved it out, gave it to an artist I knew, and had it made into the most magical Valentine's card I have crafted. In that only a comet shows nicely in the artwork, it is as wonderfully romantic as it is astronomically incorrect:

Now slides the silent meteor on
And leaves a shining furrow
As thy thoughts in me


You're welcome!

Have a picture of the card by chance? :D
 
Some sources mention over 23,000 Teslas registered in January in US and 6,000 for February. If that's true, we're talking around 34,000 Teslas registered in US and Canada in Jan-Feb. Add 36,000 (minimum) between China (18K) and Europe (18K) for Q1 and they only need to deliver 10K in US/Canada/Mexico in March to reach 80K global deliveries in Q1 (my floor estimate). I'm more for 90K/95K.

The most contentious data point is January deliveries, as other sources talk of under 10K, which I find harder to believe.
 
Elon: "Please note prices on all Tesla inventory cars worldwide rise by ~3% on April 1"

Not sure what this means.
They managed to lower expectations of Q1 to be a small loss.
Not sure why they are trying so hard with the end of Q push, I was not even aware that inventory cars are still carrying lower prices.
BK imminent?:D