Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

There's been delays in Sweden with deliveries being pushed to April. Of course information about the delays have been mishandled by Tesla and costumers are getting vexed. So business as usual at Tesla.

The problem seems to be that there's bad information about what trailer delivers what car. I think someone called it a 'delivery hell'.

The fact that deliveries have seemingly gone much poorer in Sweden than elsewhere in Europe argues that the problem has to do with Sweden specifically. Across the border in Norway, deliveries are pouring through.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Come on, that wasn't a dog. According to this picture, this is what dogs look like:

(IMHO, that should be part of "Sentry Mode" )

WTF.?? "Honeybee Mode"?

 

[wipster]

Another data point: According to someone who accompanied a friend who picked up his Model 3 in Munich: 96 deliveries at just this one center yesterday!!! Wonder whether Norway or Germany will come out ahead with March deliveries!

EDIT: Source Model 3 Auslieferung Deutschland • TFF Forum - Tesla Fahrer & Freunde

Go Norway!!! (OK, so I'm a bit prejudiced, sue me SEC)

 

[wipster]

The fact that deliveries have seemingly gone much poorer in Sweden than elsewhere in Europe argues that the problem has to do with Sweden specifically. Across the border in Norway, deliveries are pouring through.

So in other words, socialized delivery isn't the problem ;-)

 

[mongo]

Next SeekingAlpha article: "Tesla Semi Can Only Haul 4 cars vs. 8-10 for Typical Semi"

That one can haul 5 (front position can double stack)...
SunCountry Trailers - 5 Car Hauler Standard and Custom Trailers
There are also 6 and 7 car fifth wheel trailers, but I think 8-10 cars requires a tractor with integrated car features whereas these trailers work with any.

 

[Words of HABIT]

While driving the curvy back roads today taking the long way home I was "vroom vroom"ing around the corners like a kid in a go-cart. Then my 12 year son piped up, "Dad, what are you doing. Teslas don't make that noise." Face palm.

 

[CalX]

I apologize if this is already posted but the overtaking by model 3 in Europe is amazing. Netherlands, Norway and Spain data. Missing last couple days. From EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain

 

[wipster]

View attachment 392061 I apologize if this is already posted but the overtaking by model 3 in Europe is amazing. Netherlands, Norway and Spain data. Missing last couple days. From EV registration statistics for The Netherlands, Norway and Spain

Schwing!

 

[shrspeedblade]

Now we just need to get the stock price to follow that left scale!

 

[MABO]

Yeah, praising Q1 performance two days before end of quarter is so not Elon. Wondering what's going on - they wouldn't know financials this early, so it could be a deliveries milestone perhaps?

100k would be asking for (way) too much?

Probably. But I've been wondering about this for a week or two.

I've spent too much time cobbling together bits of data to come up with a decent bottom-up estimate of Q1 production. In doing so, I adjust my assumptions to try to account for my bias as a Tesla bull. So no matter what I do, I come up with 90K total production (S/3/X). I don't want to allow myself to believe that 100K is in the cards.

But here's the thing that vexes me. Big goals like this are set top-down. Often these goals are stretch goals as well (especially with Tesla). If production was running smoothly through January, they may well have seen that 100K total units was possible and set that as the marching order. This would also explain the price and sales model fiddling. It could well have been done to goose up demand just in order to absorb higher than initially expected production (and not because of some demand cliff).

This would be a great FU to TSLAQ and the SEC, a powerful motivator within Tesla.

PS. This is, of course, production only. I don't think there is any data to support delivery of anywhere near 100K (I'm currently at ~85K with my delivery estimate). But I'd sure love to be proven wrong on this one!!!

 

[Krugerrand]

So if they have produced 78000 ish model 3’s as per Bloomberg and they have delivered 55000 are the rest in transit? I can see having 10000 or do for inventory purposes but kinda curious where all the rest are.

Bottom of the ocean.

 

[anthonyj]

Bears are so ****ing stupid holy *sugar*

That’s all I have to say

 

[Krugerrand]

Dog Hater

Absolutely not. Cats are just way better and rule the world is all.

 

[woof]

Cats are just way better and rule the world is all.

Well, Dogs do drool, but that doesn't mean cats rule.

 

[woof]

Come on, that wasn't a dog. According to this picture, this is what dogs look like:

(IMHO, that should be part of "Sentry Mode" )

Um no. That's what bees look like. You sure you are the ruling class?

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Bottom of the ocean.

But seriously. I’m seeing more and more estimates of 55000 3’s delivered. I get that in transit covers some and they are to the point where they need inventory spread around two continents now so they can natch cars to orders more efficiently but I would have thought that number would have been 10 to 12 thousand cars. Not 20’000 cars. I don’t think there is a demand problem so is it more of a logistics issue or am I looking at the numbers wrong.

 

[Krugerrand]

But seriously. I’m seeing more and more estimates of 55000 3’s delivered. I get that in transit covers some and they are to the point where they need inventory spread around two continents now so they can natch cars to orders more efficiently but I would have thought that number would have been 10 to 12 thousand cars. Not 20’000 cars. I don’t think there is a demand problem so is it more of a logistics issue or am I looking at the numbers wrong.

Ok, being serious for a post. I’ve got no idea how many will be in transit and the mental gymnastics to do the math is not conducive to the enjoyment of the bottle of Tequila in front of me.

I think that was a fail on my part.

 

[SteveG3]

more... tweeted to Tom Randall. note that at the bottom of my tweet is Visible Alpha Insight (Tom's data source as plainly stated in today's article) tweet from earlier today reflecting that their consensus S/X production estimate is 21k.

link to tweet above if anyone wants to retweet, like, and/or comment.

will not post this kind of stuff on this thread when weekend is over (plan to create a new separate thread for this, but, want to write up an explanatory intro).

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Ok, being serious for a post. I’ve got no idea how many will be in transit and the mental gymnastics to do the math is not conducive to the enjoyment of the bottle of Tequila in front of me.

I think that was a fail on my part.

I get it. We are just guessing at this point. It would be interesting to know what the perfect inventory number would be to insure reasonably quick delivery of all the very combos of options. For us, long range, RWD, white on white, 19 inch rims, autopilot, according to the website 2 weeks but according to our Tesla Dude in Vancouver probably close to 4 weeks. Which for us is totally acceptable but for some maybe not.

Wonder what the top three configs are.

 

[EVNow]

But seriously. I’m seeing more and more estimates of 55000 3’s delivered. I get that in transit covers some and they are to the point where they need inventory spread around two continents now so they can natch cars to orders more efficiently but I would have thought that number would have been 10 to 12 thousand cars. Not 20’000 cars. I don’t think there is a demand problem so is it more of a logistics issue or am I looking at the numbers wrong.

The estimates have the 3 low and S&X high.

12 weeks of about 6k /wk gets us 70k produced for 3. 10k more in transit means around 60k delivered.