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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The estimates have the 3 low and S&X high.

12 weeks of about 6k /wk gets us 70k produced for 3. 10k more in transit means around 60k delivered.

Bloomberg is at about 79000 for the quarter. Normally there low. Maybe this time there a tad high. They actually allude to that further down in their oration. 70,000 produced with 10,000 in transit and inventory sounds reasonable. Guess will see in the next few days.
 
Absolutely not. Cats are just way better and rule the world is all.
See that is were your wrong. I asked my dog about Tesla production and delivery numbers and he gave me the side eye and said..."dude they can't build them fast enough...sell everyone they make...what's the big deal"
I had to agree it was a dumb question.
 
Why is it that companies need to chase some outsiders' imagined estimates? Shouldn't people doing estimates be responsible for doing them correctly? Unless it's estimates from company's executives isn't it that estimates need to not miss results and not the opposite? This looks upside down for me and if someone is doing wrong estimates all the time he's just bad analyst and his future estimates should be ignored and headlines should be like "Worthless analysts' estimates about ... miss again"
 
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From a twitter post: Tesla is most searched (online) car in Norway and China. Will be interesting to visit this map again in a couple of years.
 
Do you have some proof to support this statement?
No. It makes sense though. SpaceX is more on his mind right now. Ellison is a bigger influence on Elon than anyone else on the board, including his brother. Elon has tweeted that a title is meaningless as long as he is the biggest shareholder. It's eventually going to happen anyway and he's mostly working with the fsd team right now. Elon's Twitter is like looking at tea leaves, open to interpretation. Sometimes tea leaves are just tea leaves o_O
 
But seriously. I’m seeing more and more estimates of 55000 3’s delivered. I get that in transit covers some and they are to the point where they need inventory spread around two continents now so they can natch cars to orders more efficiently but I would have thought that number would have been 10 to 12 thousand cars. Not 20’000 cars. I don’t think there is a demand problem so is it more of a logistics issue or am I looking at the numbers wrong.
I find the 55K estimates implausible.

AlphaHat is probably wrong on the ship loadings; I do not believe that only 38,000 Model 3s went overseas in Q1. That would indicate that they've covered less than a quarter of the European backlog, which would just annoy people; it would seem like strange and poor planning to shift shipments back to the US so quickly. (Even at a low estimate of 6000/week production, this would mean that production shifted back to US models in *mid-Feburary*, which seems insane and doesn't fit the evidence.) But hey, AlphaHat might be right. If so, Tesla still has an equal-size European backlog to empty in Q2.

I think AlphaHat is throwing out inaccurate round numbers for ship loadings, and that it's low. Not sure how low, but a good guess would be 40K - 50K cars sent overseas.
 
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There's a Bezos quote that I think applies to Tesla here. I can't recall the exact phrasing, but something along the lines of when Amazon first launched the products which were the beachheads on which they'd build AWS, Bezos thought that if they were lucky they'd have two years before the big boys started competing.

They got seven years. And now AWS is entrenched as the market leader, and Google and Microsoft are working to catch up.

Seven years just doesn't happen, and yet Tesla got an even longer head start. Forget the Roadster--it has been nearly seven years since the Model S began production, and we're only now starting to see actual competition--for the early Model S. No one is competing on the full Tesla feature set and product line, nor on Tesla's volume. And no one is going to in the immediate future.

Had the incumbents taken Tesla seriously when the Roadster shipped, and begun copying in earnest the Model S immediately, they'd have been in a far better position to crush the new guy, or at least be producing products on par with Tesla.

Now? Well, just look at AWS. Warren Buffett said of Bezos in 2017:

"[Bezos] thought he would have two years of runway. He got seven years. You do not want to give Jeff Bezos a seven-year head start."

The same applies to Elon Musk, JB, Jerome, et al.



It's almost as though there's a method to the madness...

Side note: any of you near local delivery centers, consider dropping off some care packages today. I've brought donuts, bagels, etc at prior quarter ends, and the teams generally seem to appreciate it a bunch. They're surely working harder than most of us this week...
Maybe then the media and shorts did Tesla a favor. Creating the perception that Tesla and EVs were a horrible business, which resulted in competitors delaying their plans. Whereas in reality, consumers are eager to buy the cars. That would be so funny!
 
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That car looks so not attractive, the concept seems great though, but the reality couldn't be further away from that. And its name, Taycan, is just plain weird.
Toucan Sam >> Taycan Sam ?

Now, we just need an article by Anton Wrongman telling us how Taycan Sam is the next Tesla killa. :p
 
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I always maintained that current and planned competitors for Tesla were subpar. Because it's not just about having a competitive EV powertrain, but also about having a robust autonomous capability or potential AND smartcar/ software layer. The latter IMO requires large scale software expertise, as found in silicon valley companies. So, for example, Google or Apple starts selling cars to consumers. Google currently has no such plans. Apple's been secretive, with the rumor mills churning. But now we have this:

Apple hires Tesla’s head of electric powertrains in effort to bring electric car to market

So, it looks like they may be working on more than just the software front end. As a Tesla investor, this is the competitor that I am most worried about now. But can Apple really do it? Project Titan has been in disarray recently. Maybe they straightened things out? Also they don't really have a visionary leader, like Musk or Jobs, to see it to its full potential IMO. Many have also questioned Apple's innovative strength lately. I'm kinda divided right now. But, as Tesla investors, this is something we should all keep an eye on. We don't want to see Tesla became the palm pilot to Apple's iPhone (or iCar).

It's also interesting that the VP of engineering left for Apple. He didn't say anything at the time of his quitting (couple of months ago I think?). Significant pay raise? Change of scenery? Tired of the Tesla pace and work style? Hard to say.
 
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The estimates have the 3 low and S&X high.

12 weeks of about 6k /wk gets us 70k produced for 3. 10k more in transit means around 60k delivered.

Bloomberg is at about 79000 for the quarter. Normally there low. Maybe this time there a tad high. They actually allude to that further down in their oration. 70,000 produced with 10,000 in transit and inventory sounds reasonable. Guess will see in the next few days.

Tesla also brought about 6k of 2018 Model 3 production into Q1 as inventory. Suspect that nearly all of these 2018 inventory cars have been flushed out. I'm thinking about 66k Model 3 deliveries +/-4k.