Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

I had my P3D delivered last Thursday. It came with road rash, fish eyes, minor and deep scratches, rock chips, odd internal wind noise and creeks that I cant seem to isolate inside the cabin. I am sad to say that this has been a very disappointing experience. More so because I called the deliver center that shipped me the car, they told me to contact my tesla sales rep, who told me to contact delivery who then told me to contact another number. Down the line after 11 calls, I was told that it would be figured out after the weekend. I will say, that outside of those issues the P3D is a phenomenal car. The acceleration and more nimble feel always keeps a smile on my face. I loved the white seats on red. But I am sad to say I will be taking advantage of the 7 day return policy.

With that said, I got a fantastic deal on a P100D which we are excited to receive. Also, to everyone thats been waiting for a refresh, I've just secured it for you. You're welcome.

Edit: I realized I left this part out and it certainly matters. While it does not excuse the poor fit and finish of my P3D, the lack of detailing, etc. This was an inventory car, which may explain things like the road rash.

@Dwdnjck LOL, what is it about my post that you disagree with? I'm not sure if I've ever asked someone why they rated a post of mine. But I am genuinely curious.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm sitting on this 4/5 §297,5 call, which is over 200% up at the moment and can't decide what to do with it.

My optimistic side tells me that the delivery report is going to be good, my pessimist half is warning that even good figures will be spun by the MSM.

A wildcard is the court hearing on Thursday - there's a slight chance the judge throws the case out, the SP would rocket.

Surely whatever I do it will be wrong...

Not an Advice: Don't be Greedy: Take the money.

 

[ggr]

No, that is not what they are saying, and the details matter:

"Note: We use a 13-week trailing average to assess the weekly production rate. The raw weekly data are subject to temporary fluctuations and don't represent our best estimate of current output. Source: Bloomberg"​

Note "assess" weasel wording - i.e. their estimator calculates a weekly production estimate - which they use in unspecified ways to arrive to their graph through the quarter. This necessarily means that as the estimate changes so does their quarterly production graph change for that particular quarter. It's not a "history", but an estimate for the whole quarter.

Anyway, as I wrote it in my other post I agree that the Bloomberg tracker was hard to read and not transparent enough. They improved this in Q1 and now we at least have a clear idea of what they are estimating - for the last ~2 weeks they were estimating production of around 79k.

The accusation of them changing their 61k estimate retroactively is not true: they arrived at that figure 3 days before Tesla's January 2 report, and it remained unchanged until the report.

To clarify my position: there are two issues you are trying to address. One is when they changed the report, and I agree, they changed it before the final numbers were out. The second is whether or not they then went back into the past, and changed projections that they had stood behind for twelve weeks. They did.

 

[Fact Checking]

I normally say "split the difference". But in this case, when you only have one...

You could convert it to a spread. Sell a 4/5 call worth half its value. That'd be basically splitting the difference.

Or sell the call and buy a higher strike price one at half the value and keep half as cash.

The advantage: if SP does rocket, leverage is much higher.

 

[KarenRei]

Sell a call? Never don't that before...

I'm thinking to sell it and get something outside the money for Mid-May to take benefit of good delivery data, good Q1 results and end of SEC case.

But I can still see the SP popping in the coming days and my 200% could easily go much higher.

You can see I'm a total noob with this!

Think of it this way:

• If the stock goes down, you still got out with half your money, plus any residual value if you sell your call early.
• If the stock goes up a bit, you get all the money from the call you own, plus the money you got from selling the call to make the spread.
• Stock pops big, you still profit all the way up to whatever strike you capped yourself at, plus the money you got from selling the call to make the spread. Someone else gets all the "extra gains", however.

There is of course no single "right answer" unless you're psychic

ED: Indeed, if you think the stock might skyrocket, consider Fact Checking's not-an-advice.

 

[Tim S]

​

ps : Reading a bit on this, sounds like in finance parlance, "increase sequentially" just means increase compared to last quarter. Doesn't say anything about how much the increase will be. So, even if the increase is by 0.1%, it would be inline with the guidance.

I am no expert, but I agree with this interpretation.

 

[defc0n]

Not an Advice: Don't be Greedy: Take the money.

Yes you already had a big short-term win. Yes you could win a bit more, but for me it wouldn't be worth the risk.

 

[defc0n]

Convert those winnings to regular shares.

 

[Unpilot]

Convert those winnings to regular shares.

Or send them to me...I will decide what to do with them

 

[Hock1]

Hock1, if you think they are waiting 28 days for concrete to cure, you have not been paying attention. High
Early concrete allows for 80% strength within two days. This is quite standard to expedite construction in North America, and rest assured China waits for no-one.
28-day-myth
High Early Concrete Cures Quickly, Reducing Wait Time, Increasing Turnaround

That's funny. You're right. I have not been paying attention----it's been forty years since I was involved in heavy construction. As I was writing this response, I was wondering if anything has changed in the world of concrete!! Oh well, back to lurking.

 

[Tslynk67]

Thanks Dodger, FC & Karen - I've put in a limit sell order for $4.5 (buying price was $1.25), see if that executes and then what to do next.

Indeed, I think either FC's approach is best or mine with a May call.

Not sure I'm ready to sell a call yet, that's way too scary

 

[AudubonB]

First pictures of HW 3.0!!!!!!!

Wow. Competitors are finished. Stock price rocket imminent!

I've amended that thread, everyone......Behold HW3 ( First pics ) !!!!

 

[Creekstalker]

I'm sitting on this 4/5 §297,5 call, which is over 200% up at the moment and can't decide what to do with it.

My optimistic side tells me that the delivery report is going to be good, my pessimist half is warning that even good figures will be spun by the MSM.

A wildcard is the court hearing on Thursday - there's a slight chance the judge throws the case out, the SP would rocket.

Surely whatever I do it will be wrong...

There are always worse ideas than taking a gain.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Thanks Dodger, FC & Karen - I've put in a limit sell order for $4.5 (buying price was $1.25), see if that executes and then what to do next.

Indeed, I think either FC's approach is best or mine with a May call.

Not sure I'm ready to sell a call yet, that's way too scary

Sure, but just remember for options expiring in April, GS has laboured hard to produce a miss on Earnings. Facts may not matter for the SP during the time window you have in mind.

 

[AudubonB]

... I once worked in the initial planning for a ~3,000 year old building in Yemen, so I suspect high durability has been long perfected.

April 1, 1000 BC

 

[Causalien]

Thanks Dodger, FC & Karen - I've put in a limit sell order for $4.5 (buying price was $1.25), see if that executes and then what to do next.

Indeed, I think either FC's approach is best or mine with a May call.

Not sure I'm ready to sell a call yet, that's way too scary

Your strategy depends on the comission somewhat. It doesn't make sense to roll if each trade cost $20. It also doesn't make sense to sell call, if the call is only worth 60 and comission is 20.

It also depends on your net worth. If this is pocket and was intended as a lottery ticket. Let it come to its conclusion after sec ruling. Otherwise if the $400 amount van be meaningful to your life. Sell and use it to better your life.

If this is meant as options training. Then sell a covered call. As ling as the expirary is on the same date and strike is higher, you are covered and there is nothing to be afraid of.

 

[Todd Burch]

If S and X are getting some sort of refresh (interior or exterior improvements), then I expect it to be in conjunction with HW3 install...and SOON, as Tesla will likely want to get those fresh orders in the books in Q2. I'm hoping for an announcement within a few days.

 

[Greenback]

interest in the 6/21 350 calls...

 

[Cohiba]

Sell a call? Never don't that before...

I'm thinking to sell it and get something outside the money for Mid-May to take benefit of good delivery data, good Q1 results and end of SEC case.

But I can still see the SP popping in the coming days and my 200% could easily go much higher.

You can see I'm a total noob with this!

Keep the lottery ticket. You can either lose a dinner with your wife, or win a romantic weekend to Paris. Much more upside than downside, you have dinner every day. Paris would pay off in many different ways, your wife would be grateful.

 

[EVNow]

So most probably we will have a beat on M3 numbers, but miss on SX numbers from FactSet.

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to deliver 77,000 vehicles in the first quarter, including 55,000 Model 3 sedans. Concerns have swirled that demand for Tesla vehicles are lagging and margins dwindling.

So on deliveries report SP might not move at all and await for ER.

22k S&X is setup for a miss.

Everything we have heard about S&X is bearish - how can the numbers be so high ? I won't be surprised if the SP falls after delivery report because of this setup, even though 3 will most probably beat that 55k.