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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Esme Es Mejor
Member
I hadn't seen the Spain/Switzerland/etc. numbers come in later today -- would have to guess 22k EU now, for a total of 77k. Worth noting that I'm intentionally trying to guess on the conservative side.
EDIT: A more optimistic estimate based on the same assumptions/data could be 82k, with 3k additional in China and 2k additional in GER.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Famously Lutz started on Volt after Tesla released Roadster. He just got crazier later.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
10-12k for March is low, plus we know it from Alpha Hat that InsideEV underestimated January numbers by about 37%:
Tesla Delivered More Vehicles in January than Reports Suggest
'A few weeks ago we wrote that Tesla delivered a surprisingly high number of vehicles in the first couple of weeks of January. Our more recent data showed that the trend continued for the full month, with Tesla delivering around 11,485 vehicles (S, X & 3) within the US in January. Our data indicates deliveries were 37% higher than the widely-followed estimates from InsideEVs, who reported 8,375 US deliveries across all models."
'A few weeks ago we wrote that Tesla delivered a surprisingly high number of vehicles in the first couple of weeks of January. Our more recent data showed that the trend continued for the full month, with Tesla delivering around 11,485 vehicles (S, X & 3) within the US in January. Our data indicates deliveries were 37% higher than the widely-followed estimates from InsideEVs, who reported 8,375 US deliveries across all models."
Numbers for most European countries came in quickly - we are at more than 19,000 official regstrations with data from Germany still missing!
As Norway had 1016/5822 in Feb/Mar, I suspect Germany will go from 1092 in Jan to 5000-6000 in March, so the total would be 24,000-25,000
!
Plugging 15k S/X and 77k Model 3s into this model, I'm coming up with a Q1 net profit. Thoughts?
Edit: Even 72k Model 3s gets me to a Q1 profit. Hm.
Edit 2: Math is hard. 62k-67k Model 3s, not 72-77k. Duh. Nevermind.
Last edited:
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Numbers for most European countries came in quickly - we are at more than 19,000 official regstrations with data from Germany still missing!
As Norway had 1016/5822 in Feb/Mar, I suspect Germany will go from 1092 in Jan to 5000-6000 in March, so the total would be 24,000-25,000
AFAIK Germany will report March registrations in two days - 4th of April.
5-6k sounds too much - 3-4k would be fantastic!
ZachF
Active Member
Question... for Europe might registrations understate actual deliveries?
For instance, if someone got their delivery this weekend but the registration office was closed until monday, which is then no longer March?
Delivery could count as Q1 even though it's not registered until april.
In Germany, you have to register before you can take delivery. Well, at least if you want to drive it home...
mutle
Member
You either need temporary tags or take the car on a trailer until it’s registered. Should be a low number compared to total
I'm sticking with my utterly outrageous estimate as posted a while back in the How many model 3s will take deliver in q1 thread:
M3 Production 86k, deliveries 80k
S&X Production 20k, deliveries 15k
Because my glass is always half full and I've always more beer chilling' in the fridge ready.
I hasten to add that this figure was derived in the time-honoured manner - extracted from one of my body-cavities...
Certainly not an advice.
M3 Production 86k, deliveries 80k
S&X Production 20k, deliveries 15k
Because my glass is always half full and I've always more beer chilling' in the fridge ready.
I hasten to add that this figure was derived in the time-honoured manner - extracted from one of my body-cavities...
Certainly not an advice.
Very possible. With latest numbers, we may see a pop. I am going to hold all positions through ER.
NannerAirCraft
Member
Yes if Model 3 deliveries were that high I would be expecting a modest net profit. But I simply don't see how they could have deliveries that high. In their guidance they said deliveries would be 10k lower than production. 77k is around my guess for production right now with around 65k deliveries. Right now we have just under 17k reported deliveries across Europe for the Model 3 with Germany still needing to report in which I'm guessing will add 3-5k for March. Insideev's just came out with their March estimate of 10-12k Model 3 for March. I'm gonna go with the high end estimate which would give a total of 24,250 Model 3 for the quarter in the US. Can probably add 3k from Canada and I have no idea how deliveries are going in Mexico but let's just add 1k as a guess. This gets me to 50k. I believe China got the same number of ships as Europe so they should contribute over 10k but there is doesn't seem to be very good reporting of numbers over there. I also suspect insideev's numbers for the US might be a little low which brings me to me 65k estimate. I could see the final number being +-5k from that. 70k Model 3 deliveries and 16k S&X actually outputs a $0.01 profit in my model but my opex numbers could be wildly off as they are just estimates and I have no idea if they will try to sell many ZEV credit this quarter.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Don't they need new license plates in most countries, which requires registration?
O.k., Norway is a bit of a special case, I agree. If I do the extrapolation for Model 3 from Feb to Mar using all countries except Germany and Norway, I get a factor of 4.2 - multiplying this withe the German Feb number for 3 and adding S/X from Feb I end up with about 4,200. I guess that might be more realistic.
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