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Another point about the FCA deal. I’m pretty sure before closing this deal FCA made sure that Tesla is not going bankwupt anytime now ... I mean this should be standard when making a multi million dollar deal with an other company. No? So the shorts should have it on good authority now.

And for FCA buying Tesla shares, wouldn’t it be a good ‘hedge against the fine’ it has to pay to Tesla?

And one more thing. If FCA is late to the BEV game, wouldn’t a Model 3 SR skateboard (battery, controller, motor) make a nice base for a future FCA vehicle? I mean, with ICE they do it all the time.

Mind farts.

There’s almost zero chance that Tesla would go bacrupt. I do not see how one would even entertain the thought.
 
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@Antares Nebula
teensy tiny factoid = competition a bit behind
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Hmm... where did that Model Y efficiency number come from? Significatly less efficient than the Bolt?

The Tesla Model 3 page is rated at 310 miles for AWD, and the Model Y at 300 for AWD. That's 95% of the range. Yet they are claiming the Y as only getting 88% of the miles per kWh. At that low of an efficiency, the Y would need 86kWh worth of pack to make it's range.

That same chart shows the Model X75D having 92% the efficiency of the S75D... and on the face of it the Y would seem less of a change from the 3 as the X is from the S.

I call horse-hockey! I'd guess more like 3.8 miles/kWh

(edited to revise #'s for Model 3 AWD)
 
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Another point about the FCA deal. I’m pretty sure before closing this deal FCA made sure that Tesla is not going bankwupt anytime now ... I mean this should be standard when making a multi million dollar deal with an other company. No? So the shorts should have it on good authority now.

And for FCA buying Tesla shares, wouldn’t it be a good ‘hedge against the fine’ it has to pay to Tesla?

And one more thing. If FCA is late to the BEV game, wouldn’t a Model 3 SR skateboard (battery, controller, motor) make a nice base for a future FCA vehicle? I mean, with ICE they do it all the time.

Mind farts.
FCA not late, just "teensy tiny" city car.
upload_2019-4-7_13-17-22.png
 
Hmm... where did that Model Y efficiency number come from? Less efficient than the Bolt?

The Tesla Model 3 page is rated at 325 miles for AWD, and the Model Y at 300 for AWD. That's 92% of the range. Yet they are claiming the Y as only getting 84% of the miles per kWh. At that low of an efficiency, the Y would need 86kWh worth of pack to make it's range.

That same chart shows the Model X75D having 92% the efficiency of the S75D... and on the face of it the Y would seem less of a change from the 3 as the X is from the S.

I call horse-hockey!
@scaesare
It is from ARK Invest, their data so should be pretty clean, bolt surprised me also tho (upper right of picture)
 
If I'm reading that EU/EC regulation 443/2009 correctly...
  • Any "excess emissions premium" will be paid by the pool manager, which is FCA. Things might get sticky if FCA were to become insolvent.
  • Subject to the regs, it looks like each pool can set its own terms privately. I doubt we'll see full transparency there. We'll have to infer what we can from public statements.
 
There are dirt roads which haven't changed much since the days of horse.

Maybe self-driving cars will just never be self-driving in the poor rural areas.

I could see that.

Yes, I’ve rural lived more than half my life. Love it because nobody is driving the roads so me and my cats can go for a stroll without being worried about getting hit by a city driver.

Relax. It’ll be fine and not your problem since you’ll be worm food by then.

Like everything else (in this simulation?), it’ll be a continuum, a cost/reward calculus...

Them that want that Amazon delivery or enough of them (or the lower-rate shipping option)... will “put the stickers on” their 1/8 mile driveway and near the entrance. Others wait. Others won’t at all. Adopt a highway!
 
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We can’t have it both ways with 5 & 6. The Leasing demand lever is cash consumptive.

And if production really was throttled due to working capital cash concerns, then we have a problem Houston. Not only have management repeatedly said they don’t need to raise capital, they’ve also said again and again that the cash conversion cycle for model 3 is cash generative (i.e. quarter on quarter growth produces extra cashflow due to payments to suppliers lagging behind time to build and deliver vehicle).

More likely either global demand is peaking for premium Model 3, hence the release of SR/SR+. Or else there are ongoing production challenges that we don’t yet know about. If stafic production really is because cash is too tight to produce more, then I’m out.
Leasing is somewhat cash consumptive, but how cash consumptive depends on the take rate of high margin options and the margins on their 3s. Tesla can also keep the federal tax credit and they can package/sell the 3 leases at some point just like they did with the S/X leases.

For instance, if they lease a Performance 3 that costs $69k (+color, AP, and FSD), and their margins are at 35%, their cost is $44.875k in materials/labor, and their net cash outlay after profits and the federal tax credit is about $20k with a $1+k/month lease payment.

That's excluding sales from any emissions credits (ZEV, GHG, etc...).

Edit - Last but not least, the more 3s Tesla sells and the greater their share of the emissions credit market, the more valuable those credits become to Tesla. If Tesla can pull customers away from the other EVs/PHEVs sold by other manufacturers, then those manufacturers either have to discount their cars to sell them, or they have to buy credits from Tesla to offset fewer sales of their EVs/PHEVs.
 
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Note that the "duration" column for FCA-Tesla shows "2019" only. Other pools show ranges, such as "2019-2024". I don't know how significant that is.

Since Tesla keeps growing its pool membership will be more and more valuable. They might also need the cash less, which would allow them to negotiate more aggressively with a credible ability to walk away. Makes sense to hold a new auction every year to maximize the income.

Conversely FCA might not want to enter into a too long agreement either - thinking that they'd be able to build more EVs next year.

Anyway, from Tesla's point of view frequent negotiations are better.
 
I think in order to appreciate that one has to experience it personally, trying to navigate in mid summer in a mix of fog, sulfuric gases and snow flakes and then have a gust of wind literally lift you up and throw you a couple meters - in spite of carrying a backpack heavy with two weeks of supplies. Surreal...
Reminds me of when I was at Dumont d'Urville, a very windy place. One evening during a bad wind storm, I and a couple of other visitors who were staying in the remote dorms gave up waiting out the storm at the dining hall and headed out to our dorm. To make any progress you had to lean hard against the wind (fortunately we were mostly headed up-wind) at an absurd angle. Occasionally we'd still get lifted and tossed but much more frequently there would be a slight lull and we'd all fall flat on our faces (because leaning forward 60 degrees). Every time we fell down we'd laugh hysterically because really we should have been scared to death.
 
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I have an excuse as I write on iPhone and do not see what I am writing :) If you are not short than why would you bother trying to dispel every little lie that shorts cook up. In a way arguing with shorts gives them credibility.
If they are an absolute fringe with little to no effect on SP, you don't want to argue with them and give credibility.

But when TSLA is the most shorted stock and 50% of sold stock on any day is short - you do need to swat their lies. Otherwise, it will be like Kerry ignoring swift boat ads.
 
If they are an absolute fringe with little to no effect on SP, you don't want to argue with them and give credibility.

But when TSLA is the most shorted stock and 50% of sold stock on any day is short - you do need to swat their lies. Otherwise, it will be like Kerry ignoring swift boat ads.


Maybe I am not up to date but the short’s bankruptcy argument died once Tesla paid their debt in cash.