Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Compton]

Remember when the theory was that the feds were going to arrest Elon on-stage at the Model Y event? That was a great one

Huh? I thought I had learned to expect anything from the shorty shortz but that's... really crazy.

 

[dgodfrey]

So, FCA is saying - for the foreseeable future
- They won't make EVs
- They will try to make their cars more fuel efficient
- They will just keep paying Tesla (because that is cheaper than paying fines or building EVs)

The big groups that currently have no EV programs
- Toyota
- Honda
- FCA
- Ford

Did I miss anyone ? As the emissions regime gets tougher worldwide, all these groups will have to pay all their profits to Tesla

Toyota and Honda have gamed the ZEV program here with their Fuel Cell models. Not sure if they get similar double credits on the other side of the pond.

 

[Khamul]

Remember when the theory was that the feds were going to arrest Elon on-stage at the Model Y event? That was a great one

(we really need more smileys, this one isn't anywhere near incredulous enough)

Over on r/tesla I just saw a comment which said that really, it's the shorts who're logical and the longs who are basically hoping for a miracle. Somehow I don't think that person has ever seen a single TSLAQ tweet.

 

[EVNow]

Toyota and Honda have gamed the ZEV program here with their Fuel Cell models. Not sure if they get similar double credits on the other side of the pond.

They haven't "gamed". They have paid enough money to have the regulations written to favor them. CA has the best regulators money can buy.

This is something I've been saying for a long time. It is incredible that California would favor Honda / Toyota over Tesla. Can you imagine Aichi Prefecture writing regulations preferring BMW ?

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Tesla produced about 10K fewer cars in Q1 vs Q4. So they had at least 500K kw excess battery pack production capacity or additional capacity for 100,000 Powerwalls at around $6.7K/each * 20% margin and we get $134M in potential additional revenue that is not showing up in most projections. Of course there are variables such as actual demand, capacity to put the packs into TE products, and type of TE products (power walls vs power packs etc) but still this points to potential to significant revenue from TE in Q1.

According to CarsofNight, however, sometime during the course of Q1 Panasonic installed and spun up 3 additional battery production lines, to increase the total number of lines to 13 rather than 10. Each of the new lines are also supposed to be more productive than the first 10 but they also figured out how to increase production from the original lines during this same timeframe. what's not clear is exactly when the new lines came online or how many batteries have been flowing into TE vs cars.

 

[NicoV]

So, FCA is saying - for the foreseeable future
- They won't make EVs
- They will try to make their cars more fuel efficient
- They will just keep paying Tesla (because that is cheaper than paying fines or building EVs)

The big groups that currently have no EV programs
- Toyota
- Honda
- FCA
- Ford

Did I miss anyone ? As the emissions regime gets tougher worldwide, all these groups will have to pay all their profits to Tesla

If you look at the pdf that was shared some posts ago (https://www.vcd.org/fileadmin/user_...CO2_emissions_cars_The_facts_report_final.pdf) Toyota is OK. Most likely because a large part of their cars are hybrids.
Ford is slightly better than the other brands you mention, and in the same group as BMW.

 

[Causalien]

In the future, once everything is cleared and hindsight is 20/20.

April 4th should be declared Tesla day. The day when the old narrative of fraud and bankruptcy died and we jumped the chasm of tech adoption.

 

[mact3333]

.... in fulfillment of the prophecy

Yeah the famous Nazi also said the cold war was fake, terrorism and subsequent false flag events were also fake...then its time for the asteroid scare, then finally the fake alien invasion to justify the dark space funding.

Hmmm?.....

How did Von Braun get "the" playbook way back then ?

yeah, I could totally see Elon as Mars president.

 

[lklundin]

In the Sandy Munro video, there is an enthusiastic discussion of the upcoming Jeep Gladiator which Sandy described as a jeep on a Ram truck frame. He is getting one.

It's interesting to see how Sandy Munro has changed his view on Tesla.

Like many others I think he still has to come to grips with the BEV technology, f.ex. when he equates the BEV's battery with the fuel tank of an ICE.

I think one gets a better understanding of the BEV technology by comparing it with the ICE in three steps:
A) Energy storage
B) Chemical reaction
C) Transformation to kinetic energy.

In an ICE, A is the practically 100% efficient fuel tank and B + C is the very lossy combustion engine.
In a BEV, A + B is the lossy battery and C is the highly efficient electrical motor.

Here "lossy" covers also aging and sub-optimal operating conditions.

With this focus on loss, one sees that for a BEV the battery is what is equal to the engine of the ICE, i.e. that component which has the highest loss of efficiency and which is most vulnerable to aging.

I write this, because people like Sandy Munro seem to think that because the combustion engine is the single most critical part in an ICE, then the electrical motor is pretty much the same for the BEV, while the battery is pretty much just energy storage. But the really big potential is in the still to be realized gains in the battery technology, while the improvements to the electrical motor are small and incremental with limited potential.

 

[ClimateOptimst]

OT:

In case you're wondering what 45 million horsepower looks like:

Falcon Heavy launch this week timing to coincide with SP explosion upwards. Coincidence? i think not...

 

[friit]

So the FCA deal was on Feb 25th, right? Same day as the fate loves irony tweet.

 

[NicoV]

Toyota and Honda have gamed the ZEV program here with their Fuel Cell models. Not sure if they get similar double credits on the other side of the pond.

Doesn’t matter, sales of Toyota Mirai is practically zero

 

[ZachF]

Hey Elon (and Spacex),

Let's get yer act together a little faster and win first mover...

Here's why Amazon is trying to reach every inch of the world with satellites providing internet

OT:

First Starlink launch is next month

Blue Origin's New Glenn (Which is what will probably launch this constellation) won't launch until 2021.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Note that the "duration" column for FCA-Tesla shows "2019" only. Other pools show ranges, such as "2019-2024". I don't know how significant that is.

Actually, that could be incredibly significant. The rules say you can pool from one to five years (before some type of renewal). That might very well indicate the FCA/Alfa/Tesla deal is for only one year, hence '"hundreds of millions of euros" PER YEAR.

 

[Causalien]

Doesn’t matter, sales of Toyota Mirai is practically zero

Do they gain ev credit from production or sale? The just sell to dealers right? So do they get ev credit from that?

 

[nursebee]

I am not all that worried about the competition...

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Someone sounds a little nervous...

 

[Anstandswauwau]

Tesla should take back control over their own narrative.

Hold my beer.

Tesla is now prostituting itself for a "handful of cash", so that a struggling car maker corp. can continue producing their ass-backward stinker cars. With that, Tesla has become part of the problem it originally tried to solve. Way to go.

So, remember kids, be careful what you wish for!

Anyway. Even though the damage is already done, I sincerely hope that the EU will reject this sort of trickery; FCA should comply to EU fleet emission standard (or else pay penalties) and Tesla should focus on becoming profitable – preferably without making deals with Mephisto.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

They haven't "gamed". They have paid enough money to have the regulations written to favor them. CA has the best regulators money can buy.

This is something I've been saying for a long time. It is incredible that California would favor Honda / Toyota over Tesla. Can you imagine Aichi Prefecture writing regulations preferring BMW ?

Well I mean the whole purpose of globalization is to make corporations more powerful than sovereign governments so it makes sense. Honda and Toyota are much bigger and more powerful corporations than Tesla, so what they want certainly takes precedence over what Tesla wants in a globalized corporatist world. The fact that Honda and Toyota are Japanese and Tesla is American is completely irrelevant in a world where corporate power supersedes governmental power.

 

[SO16]

I understand your point, it’s just not a 35k car you’re showing off at that point. It’s at minimum a 43k car. It’s a bait and switch the way you phrase it because you can’t get a car doing all that cool stuff for 35k.

All that cool hardware on the car is useless until you fork over 8k, so it can’t (shouldn’t) be advertised: Hey, look what our 35k base model car can do! The first person who goes to order a 35k base model only to find out it’s actually 43k if you want it to make toast for you is going to be seriously angry.

Much better to say, all versions of our Model 3 can do this wicked cool stuff for the additional charges of 3k for AP and 5k for FSD.

Have a disclaimer at the bottom in fine print saying “as shown is 43k”. I think other car commercials do that.