Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

He literally said "this will be bigger"
Elon Musk on Twitter

I'm quite sure that there was some event/news just about to be released which never happened. During that time the 5k/week was also a topic, but that was clear that it would never be larger than VW.

He tweeted that when the Saudi PIF was courting Elon to take Tesla private, if only he'd build a Gigafactory in Riyadh.

And yes, had they pulled off a going-private transaction while bringing even more shareholders on board would have burned those ~39 million shares short rather badly.

That didn't happen and Elon was talked out of going private, so a VW style short burn won't happen anytime soon IMHO.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Germany's biggest coalition party is stating in public it will not take climate actions that where Tesla wins and current German auto industry loses instead of choosing the right path:

View attachment 398491

Haha, love the replies to that tweet. Read it in English translated from this link:

https://twitter.com/CSU/status/1118924794890788865​

FI:

Nico Semsrott Verified account @ nicosemsrott 51 minutes ago

Replying to @ CSU @ ManfredWeber

"As an incompetent politician, you can always rely on this reactionary 2-step program: 1. Drive the *sugar* in the dirt. (Put on internal combustion engines.) 2. To distract that you've messed it up yourself: pull Nationalism card. (Tesla comes from somewhere else! Boo!)"​

Cheers!

 

[NicoV]

Interesting article about the EU emission regulations: Autobouwers riskeren CO2-boete van 500 miljoen euro in België

For Belgium, on average the 2021 target will be missed by 10g, i.e. a fine of 10*95 euro per car sold. In other words, those car prices should increase by 1K euro to maintain the same financial results at the car manufacturers.
According to the environmental pressue groups, this was agreed upon in 2009. Some manufacturers like Toyota transformed their cars to comply, others (FCA) did nothing.
By 2025 and 2030, the target are lower by 15% and 37.5%, compared to the 2021 target. Let’s an extra 40g by 2030 or the equivalent of an extra 4000 euro fine per car.
So a decade from now, the average ICE car will increase in price by 5000 euro just to cover the EU emission fine. That’s in addition to other local regulations that make ICE cars much more expensive to own and drive. The threshold where EVs will be cheaper to buy, own and drive will come very fast in the EU;

And a follow-up article with lots of data on the individual brand, the impact of the switch to WLTP and the fall of diesel, and as bonus, an interactive module to examine the emissions of individual models: Autobouwers ver van Europese CO2-uitstootdoelen

 

[NicoV]

Haha, love the replies to that tweet. Read it in English translated from this link:

https://twitter.com/CSU/status/1118924794890788865​

FI:

Nico Semsrott Verified account @ nicosemsrott 51 minutes ago

Replying to @ CSU @ ManfredWeber

"As an incompetent politician, you can always rely on this reactionary 2-step program: 1. Drive the *sugar* in the dirt. (Put on internal combustion engines.) 2. To distract that you've messed it up yourself: pull Nationalism card. (Tesla comes from somewhere else! Boo!)"​

Cheers!

That quote is much funnier in German. I guess It would fit well in a German thesaurus for the word *sugar*.

 

[mongo]

He tweeted that when the Saudi PIF was courting Elon to take Tesla private, if only he'd build a Gigafactory in Riyadh.

And yes, had they pulled off a going-private transaction while bringing even more shareholders on board would have burned those ~39 million shares short rather badly.

That didn't happen and Elon was talked out of going private, so a VW style short burn won't happen anytime soon IMHO.

The issue was whether Elon said bigger than than VW.

Spoiler: early morning snark

which takes all of 1 minute to confirm. Less time than creating posts asking
1. if he really said that
2. Responding to an also poorly researched (or humorous) post with *facepalm*
3. Writing this response, due to hitting my long duration cumulative *facepalm* as the total response limit. Use disagree or funny people...

It is the second link when I search

twitter elon musk short burn of century vw

Not SpaceX flight controls...

As to the root of that tweet, it likely ties into hitting 5k on the 3 line (i thought there was a direct quote, but I'm getting lazy) Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Elon had turned down the Saudi offers multiple times, so that would probably not be the basis, along with the timing being off.
Update on Taking Tesla Private

Going back almost two years, the Saudi Arabian sovereign wealth fund has approached me multiple times about taking Tesla private. They first met with me at the beginning of 2017 to express this interest because of the important need to diversify away from oil. They then held several additional meetings with me over the next year to reiterate this interest and to try to move forward with a going private transaction. Obviously, the Saudi sovereign fund has more than enough capital needed to execute on such a transaction.

Recently, after the Saudi fund bought almost 5% of Tesla stock through the public markets, they reached out to ask for another meeting. That meeting took place on July 31st. During the meeting, the Managing Director of the fund expressed regret that I had not moved forward previously on a going private transaction with them, and he strongly expressed his support for funding a going private transaction for Tesla at this time. I understood from him that no other decision makers were needed and that they were eager to proceed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Oh and uh short burn of the century comin soon. Flamethrowers should arrive just in time.

Short squeezes are more likely to occur in stocks with small market capitalization and small floats, although can involve large stocks and billions of dollars, as happened in October 2008 when a short squeeze temporarily drove the shares of Volkswagen on the Xetra DAX from €210.85 to over €1000 in less than two days, briefly making it the most valuable company in the world.

Yeah, what naive, trusting Elon (2018 version) didn't realize is that Market Makers are naked short selling stock amongst themselves. This artificially allows them effectively to issue unlimited new shares of TSLA and only have to reveil it in an obscure "failure to deliver" report after 13 trading days. By then, most of these 'market breakers' have covered their shorts at the new, artificially depressed SP.

This is financial crime. I hope Elon gets ahead of these Wall St racketeers in some way. The mission is too important to allow criminals to continue to damage TSLA and impede the progress of Tesla.

We all depend upon Tesla's success. Failure is not an option.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Haha, love the replies to that tweet. Read it in English translated from this link:

https://twitter.com/CSU/status/1118924794890788865

I liked the one about tube televisions. Makes for good reading indeed.

 

[Reciprocity]

Honestly, it is not surprising, Ontario has a history of excluding Tesla from incentives, starting with the 75K limit years ago when the 14K rebate was introduced (which was chosen to exclude the cheapest Model S available at the time, there was no Model 3 yet), then continuing with the selective wind-down of the rebate last year, when all other mfg cars got a 3 month wind-down period except Tesla. Now, they first choose a limit of 45K to exclude all Tesla, then they added an exception for the Chrysler Pacifica PHEV which is $52K CAD with the wording that cars have to have 7+ seats to qualify for the higher $55K limit. Its all silly word games just like in Germany with the length. If politicians had any honestly they would just say Tesla excluded and be done with it.

BTW, it makes some sense in a way, since Tesla sells the vast majority of EVs, so people clearly do not need incentives to buy them...

Time to add jump seats to the model 3.

Mercedes S Class and CLS Class
BMW 7 Series and 6 Series
Audi A8 and A7
Lexus LS and GS.

Model S dominates those models in the US but not in Germany or China. I agree that improvements can be made to gain an edge in those locations and range is one of them and luxury is another, specifically the rear seating where many are driven as a limo. Also this would create more differentiation with model 3/Y.

To that end I have always said, for over a year, the timing is June ordering for July 1st and beyond delivery. No magical predicative skills required, the tax credit is phasing out so the value just improve to maintain revs and margins.

Lastly, short term demand is going to be down for S/X but long term there is a natural cycle for luxury cars being replaced over 6-7 years. 7 years ago the model S was a dream and now it dominates and in places like Germany and China S wasnt available to even compete for another year or more before volumes showed up. Model S will start a replacement cycle in ernest in 2021 where 50k/Y will need to be replaced. How many here think EV owners today, next car, will be an ICEv? Yeah, not likely. Anyone wanna guess what a model S will look like in 2021 with DBE cells and 350KW+ charging and inverters/motors from model 3? 500mi of range with 10-80% charging in 20 minutes. People well be annoyed that they have to leave there lunch to move their car, so they better have snake charges and advanced summon to move the car for you.

Don't sleep on the cycle, there is still a lot of demand in the market, but as we all know EVs must be much better then ICEv to earn those sales and that means even more range and more luxury.

Mark my words, June ordering, July delivery. 400mi+ range and upgraded materials. SC3 friendly pack, meaning 1000MPH charging for longer periods of time, maybe 10-60% before tapering starts.

One more lastly, given the FCA deal, answer this question. Who is going to buy compliance PHEV/BEV and hybrids in a world with model 3 dominating and model Y coming and S/X refreshed as noted above? FCA is the only one who realizes just how screwed they are. Who is buying a bolt over an SR+? Read a story about a nightmare bolt road trip with no SC network. Who is buying a 200mi eturd it an ipace at 2x the price of a model 3? GF3 is placed nicely at maximize China ZEV credits as well. Who is going to buy crappy compliance cars in China with the SR bring mass produced locally?

All your compliance are belong to us!

 

[Sean Wagner]

Before I forget, the "German SEC" is opening a case against the FT's alphaville section head honcho for allegedly manipulating Wirecard's stock to the benefit of short sellers. Interesting.

Anzeige erstattet: Bafin verdächtigt „FT“-Journalisten im Fall Wirecard | 16.04.2019

 

[Artful Dodger]

That quote is much funnier in German. I guess It would fit well in a German thesaurus for the word *sugar*.

Yeah, 'verkackt' has several alternate translations, but this is a family show...

 

[Artful Dodger]

I liked the one about tube televisions. Makes for good reading indeed.

I liked this one:

"Even if you could somehow disadvantage DE Tesla, the rest of the world will probably not do this favor of the DE economy. The DE car industry is anyway too big for the EU market alone. So its time for elephants to learn to dance"​

That's going in my new .sig

Cheers!

 

[HG Wells]

I liked this one:

"Even if you could somehow disadvantage DE Tesla, the rest of the world will probably not do this favor of the DE economy. The DE car industry is anyway too big for the EU market alone. So its time for elephants to learn to dance"​

That's going in my new .sig

Cheers!

Your wish is my command.

 

[Pras]

One thing I haven’t seen discussed here but seemed very possible is that the FSD investor day was set up specifically for some large institutional investors who may have shown interest to invest in Tesla (only) if they demonstrate superiority in FSD capability. These could be some large tech focused funds or even some corporations.

Moving the earnings next to it, allows Tesla to give the full picture.

 

[brian45011]

Yes. Rounding Errors: $3.5 M

(Except that's the retail price of 14 roadsters. Telsa will deduct their markup)

When Tesla ended the program in January 2019 the count was over 80 free roadsters; plus at the rate of 2% discount for every five referrals, many others who did not reach 105 referrals still qualified for significant discounts.

Teslastats.no shows total cumulative registered referrals as:

North America 16,270
Europe 12,410
Asia 2,505
Middle East 56
Total 31,241

Is the "rounding error" reported in SG&A?

 

[FrANce]

The Standard Plus is now available in France:

 

[mongo]

When Tesla ended the program in January 2019 the count was over 80 free roadsters; plus at the rate of 2% discount for every five referrals, many others who did not reach 105 referrals still qualified for significant discounts.

Teslastats.no shows total cumulative registered referrals as:

North America 16,270
Europe 12,410
Asia 2,505
Middle East 56
Total 31,241

Is the "rounding error" reported in SG&A?

I think It only required 50 referrals to get a free Roadster. 2% per referral, not 2% per 5...
5 for 10% off (90% to go), then 2% per referral, 45 needed = 50.
This article gets to 50 also, but their numbers add to 55?

Tesla Will Give You a Free Next-Gen Roadster If You Refer Enough People

 

[KarenRei]

When Tesla ended the program in January 2019 the count was over 80 free roadsters; plus at the rate of 2% discount for every five referrals, many others who did not reach 105 referrals still qualified for significant discounts.

Teslastats.no shows total cumulative registered referrals as:

North America 16,270
Europe 12,410
Asia 2,505
Middle East 56
Total 31,241

Is the "rounding error" reported in SG&A?

Interesting point. Hmm, wouldn't referral prizes show up as losses on the balance sheet in the quarter that they're earned, due to them being unmet financial obligations? Both GAAP and non-GAAP? How much of an effect on the balance sheet would this "rounding error" have - maybe $1-2k per referral(? - 2% of the price of a Roadster, minus margins, reduced by the (probably high) rate of people who won't cash in), times... how many per quarter? Remember that the programme was terminated on 17 jan (ED: ended on 1 feb), and resurrected in a far more limited form on 22 mar. Referral costs this quarter were probably reduced by 60-65%.

31241 total referrals, ever, sounds really low. Surely the rate of giving out referrals has been higher than that.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

31241 total referrals, ever, sounds really low. Surely the rate of giving out referrals has been higher than that.

Actually, I doubt it was much higher than that. Most of the people that I have talked to didn't bother with it. Hell, I didn't bother with it! Got caught up in the moment and didn't think to do it. Plus, perhaps there is a portion of the population that see the mega-YouTubers getting multiple vehicles and are turned off by it. Not saying they don't deserve it but let's face it...jealousy is a pretty strong emotion.

Dan

 

[Creekstalker]

You would benifit from taking a statistics class. Data is King! But you probably already know that and just spreading doubt because?
This thread has suddenly gone FUD rich with FSD attacks. Two months ago, silence. To me, a clear indication of Tesla success and evidence of fear from those about to lose something.
What do you stand to lose DocZ?

More weird accusations and insinuations aimed at perfectly logical doubts. Tesla seems to be focusing it's efforts on something (FSD) that most people think is a long way off. Investors will be way more impressed if Tesla makes, sells, and delivers enough cars to show consistent profit. We are all "about to lose something" if Tesla makes unwise decisions on resource use and public statements. I hope a Model 3 bought now will be able to earn money for people in three years through FSD, but it feels like we are hopping aboard the FSD horse before it's ready to be ridden. Elon has a great track record at proving skeptics wrong, but that doesn't mean there is anything evil or pernicious about expressing concerns and doubts.

It's fine to disagree with anyhonyj or DocZ but it sounds like some of you are demanding a financial audit of anyone expressing doubts. The market, it seems, agrees with Tesla doubters at the moment. I love the fact that this place is full of smart bulls. I might have bailed on TSLA years ago (first shares bought at $130) were it not for the brains and optimism here at TMC. Let's not turn it into 17th century Massachussetts though.

 

[Hock1]

Yeah, what naive, trusting Elon (2018 version) didn't realize is that Market Makers are naked short selling stock amongst themselves. This artificially allows them effectively to issue unlimited new shares of TSLA and only have to reveil it in an obscure "failure to deliver" report after 13 trading days. By then, most of these 'market breakers' have covered their shorts at the new, artificially depressed SP.

This is financial crime. I hope Elon gets ahead of these Wall St racketeers in some way. The mission is too important to allow criminals to continue to damage TSLA and impede the progress of Tesla.

We all depend upon Tesla's success. Failure is not an option.

It’s heartening to see someone else gets it. It’s an absolute travesty. It’s hard to imagine a scenario where/how this all ends and we’re back to a zero sum game. It’s going to probably take the DOJ.