Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I think It only required 50 referrals to get a free Roadster. 2% per referral, not 2% per 5...
5 for 10% off (90% to go), then 2% per referral, 45 needed = 50.
This article gets to 50 also, but their numbers add to 55?

Tesla Will Give You a Free Next-Gen Roadster If You Refer Enough People

Yeah, you needed 5 referrals to 'unlock' access to the next level referral program, which was a 2% discount for each referral. So making 55 referrals earned a free roadster, 105 referrals earned two.

I want to put it on the record right now that certain 'Youtube Influencers' are unsafe at any speed, and their new roasters should be put in permanent restricted chill mode until such time as they can demonstrate driver competency at NASCAR level speeds at a licenced racing school.

Then some sort of finger print recognition 'child-lock' like feature permanently there-after. And all the prerequisite legal disclaimer agreements signed before they take delivery.

You know, to minimize the bad PR revolving around post-mortem lawsuits?

 

[jerry33]

Projected real world range or EPA range?

Real world range depends on the driver, terrain, and weather among other things. So my real world range on my S85 is something like 280-320 miles (depending upon what the usable battery capacity is. I've heard different numbers). I've also heard that some don't get that much. EPA is repeatable because it uses a standardized methodology. It was never intended to be "this is what the car gets", it was intended to be used as a comparison between cars. So a car with an EPA rating of 100 will do better than a car with an EPA rating of 80 for any particular driving circumstance.

 

[EVDRVN]

Just saw an Audi EV add that was anti-EV FUD. Seems they are advertising on major networks now. They imply lots of public charging, no issues with the cold, etc.

 

[jerry33]

There is room. But the cost will be very high.

So basically you are saying that batteries can never improve, and that they aren't improving now?

 

[lklundin]

Real world range depends on the driver, terrain, and weather among other things. So my real world range on my S85 is something like 280-320 miles (depending upon what the usable battery capacity is. I've heard different numbers). I've also heard that some don't get that much. EPA is repeatable because it uses a standardized methodology. It was never intended to be "this is what the car gets", it was intended to be used as a comparison between cars. So a car with an EPA rating of 100 will do better than a car with an EPA rating of 80 for any particular driving circumstance.

Compared to the sensor suite a minuscule amount of data is required for each Tesla to keep track of each of its consumption and charging sessions and it should be possible for the owner to get access to this data, so people would know exactly how much their consumption is, for individual trips and overall.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

More weird accusations and insinuations aimed at perfectly logical doubts. Tesla seems to be focusing it's efforts on something (FSD) that most people think is a long way off. Investors will be way more impressed if Tesla makes, sells, and delivers enough cars to show consistent profit. We are all "about to lose something" if Tesla makes unwise decisions on resource use and public statements. I hope a Model 3 bought now will be able to earn money for people in three years through FSD, but it feels like we are hopping aboard the FSD horse before it's ready to be ridden. Elon has a great track record at proving skeptics wrong, but that doesn't mean there is anything evil or pernicious about expressing concerns and doubts.

It's fine to disagree with anyhonyj or DocZ but it sounds like some of you are demanding a financial audit of anyone expressing doubts. The market, it seems, agrees with Tesla doubters at the moment. I love the fact that this place is full of smart bulls. I might have bailed on TSLA years ago (first shares bought at $130) were it not for the brains and optimism here at TMC. Let's not turn it into 17th century Massachussetts though.

FSD represents a lot more than just the Tesla Network. Also, I would challenge the statement that "most people think FSD is a long way off". Neither you nor I have any way of knowing what "most people" think or don't think so that argument becomes nothing more than speculation unless you have data to back thus up?

Dan

 

[scaesare]

In our house if anyone is more than 5 minutes late we send out the National Guard and then have to listen to an hours long lecture about why that’s not acceptable behavior, followed by an exhaustive list of no less than 83 of the most horrifying possibilities that didn’t happen but could have in that five minutes. I have my doubts, though, that you can Scarface a body in that length of time.

Say Hello to my Little Friend.

 

[brian45011]

I think It only required 50 referrals to get a free Roadster. 2% per referral, not 2% per 5...
5 for 10% off (90% to go), then 2% per referral, 45 needed = 50.
This article gets to 50 also, but their numbers add to 55?

Tesla Will Give You a Free Next-Gen Roadster If You Refer Enough People

My bad. I mis-read. It was 105 referrals for two free roadsters (I think the initial five referrals were required to unlock the 2% discount/referral).

 

[scaesare]

So my real world range on my S85 is something like 280-320 miles (depending upon what the usable battery capacity is.

Wait, are you saying you regularly get that on an S85?

Max rated range on mine when new was something like 272 miles, although it settled in to about 265 after the initial drop-off. It's about 254 now 138K miles and 1 pack replacement later.

If so, I assume you are a hyper-miler or live in one of those Escher paintings where every route is downhill no matter what direction you travel?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

My predictions for Autonomy Day reveals:
“Full self dogecoin mining” where FSD computer uses excess processor power to mine Dogecoin, which is then deposited into the owner’s account.

In “auto slug bug mode” Tesla neural net trained to constantly scan for and announce VW Bugs so all the driver has to do is punch the passenger in the shoulder .

“Geoweapon defense mode” Front cameras detect rocks about to hit the windshield and use windshield wipers to perform ninja block maneuver.

“Backseat driver mode” which is like FSD shadow mode but the car tells you what it would be doing differently.

“Vanity mode” where if you smile in front of the door camera or open visor mirror, the car tells you “you look nice today”

If I stop posting, it’s probably because the blacked out Model Xs abducted me

 

[DocZ]

I concur, so what's the smart play for some small gains on the stock next week? (Scary thought... this is well known and so people sell ahead of the fraudulent news, in turn causing even more damage... until the big pop.)
My strategy is unchanged. ~80% hold, and play the rest. But I blew all my powder recently (all in). So sell a few after Autonomy Day or just before?
I think DocZ is just warming up with mention of the 2016 video. Bet that will be the hit piece "No better after 3 yrs"
Do these people even have kids?

What the hell is your problem? Like any long term investor, I want the company to succeed. I have 452 shares. How many do you have?

You can be a fan and a shareholder of the company while also reasonably questioning their tactics, especially when they have underperformed and straight lied so many times. You have gone off the deep end if all you see is positive.

 

[Yonki]

But for example Elon’s claim of “we have more data than anyone” isn’t really valid to me because all that data has not translated to a truly compelling product offering. Even WITH all that data....it’s still a pretty basic system that can kill you if you’re not careful. So I just don’t see this FSD narrative that he’s pushing.

You're getting a lot of grief for this comment, but I totally agree. Elon's talking like FSD is almost ready except for some red tape and additional validation, but my Model 3 still can't autopilot down the recently repaved and extremely well-marked (but curvy) Highway 68 by my house without crossing over the yellow lines. I really can't think of a more ideal test for AP (bright daylight, perfectly black pavement, wide road, bright white and bright yellow markings), but the car literally can't stay in its lane, even at 10-15MPH below the posted speed limit of 40MPH. Now it has been getting better - it would go way further over the yellow line 3 months ago and even more 6 months ago - but it doesn't inspire confidence that FSD is right around the corner if the car can't handle these ideal conditions. And that's just one example. I have dozens more where AP has performed poorly where you'd expect it to have no problem.

So while I agree that Elon has eventually done all the big things he's said he's going to do (and many of those things are world-changingly amazing), I'm skeptical about FSD being anywhere near releasable, even with the 3.0 neural nets. If the fundamentals aren't 100% rock-solid under ideal conditions, how's it going to do with all the poorly marked roads and millions of other corner cases it would need to deal with to be FSD?

I want to believe, but the 0.0002% of Tesla's "data" that I've experienced is not inspiring confidence.

 

[DocZ]

You're getting a lot of grief for this comment, but I totally agree. Elon's talking like FSD is almost ready except for some red tape and additional validation, but my Model 3 still can't autopilot down the recently repaved and extremely well-marked (but curvy) Highway 68 by my house without crossing over the yellow lines. I really can't think of a more ideal test for AP (bright daylight, perfectly black pavement, wide road, bright white and bright yellow markings), but the car literally can't stay in its lane, even at 10-15MPH below the posted speed limit of 40MPH. Now it has been getting better - it would go way further over the yellow line 3 months ago and even more 6 months ago - but it doesn't inspire confidence that FSD is right around the corner if the car can't handle these ideal conditions. And that's just one example. I have dozens more where AP has performed poorly where you'd expect it to have no problem.

So while I agree that Elon has eventually done all the big things he's said he's going to do (and many of those things are world-changingly amazing), I'm skeptical about FSD being anywhere near releasable, even with the 3.0 neural nets. If the fundamentals aren't 100% rock-solid under ideal conditions, how's it going to do with all the poorly marked roads and millions of other corner cases it would need to deal with to be FSD?

I want to believe, but my the 0.0002% of Tesla's "data" that I've experienced is not inspiring confidence.

Exactly this. Careful, you’re gonna be painted as a Tesla short and conspiracy theorist. Why are you spreading doubt?

 

[humbaba]

Compared to the sensor suite a minuscule amount of data is required for each Tesla to keep track of each of its consumption and charging sessions and it should be possible for the owner to get access to this data, so people would know exactly how much their consumption is, for individual trips and overall.

I'd love to be able to just download a CSV of energy usage to my thumbdrive so that I could get all geeky over it. And if Tesla collects it (while they certainly could, I doubt they bother with all of it given the size of the fleet) then making it available for download from your account. Either way works for me.

 

[KarenRei]

I expect that Elon's confidence comes from a mix of A) radical improvements they're seeing in development versions vs. deployed versions, and B) the fact that increasing the number of neurons in a neural net isn't a O(N) gain, it's a O(N²) gain.

Here, for example, is an XKCD comic from years back:

Now, back when this comic was written, this was true - reliable identification of images was an incredibly difficult task - "virtually impossible". But it no longer is. We've got commodity neural nets that do a better job at labeling pictures than humans do.

And what determines how well they do it is primarily the scale of the nets and the amount and quality of the training data they're given.

I'm sure to Elon - combined with seeing fast progress recently in development builds - this means that FSD is right around the corner. He's always been a huge FSD optimist. I, personally, waver. I do expect it to get there... but I expect lots of annoying difficulties, even with vastly more powerful neural nets. I wouldn't be surprised to see "supervised FSD" in customer cars by the end of this year, including city driving. But not "lay back and sleep" / "dispatch the kids to school" FSD. That I still expect to take years.

 

[Creekstalker]

As a Tesla/EV watcher (and smallish Tesla shareholder), I get a sense that we are ALL entering uncharted waters with little useful guidance – this is the beginning of real disruption but so much is unknown (I imagine even a analytical genius like Elon is guessing quite a lot – SpaceX must be more logical/predictable!)

There certainly are now some clear indicators:- EVs are the future but when is still unclear; Tesla is ahead of all others (at present); OEMs are having real trouble climbing aboard the helter skelter train ride but know that missing the boat (mixing metaphors there!) will sink them; China will not wait for the rest of the world to 'catch up' (and may the main source of cars in 10/20/30? years time); battery supply appears to be the current stumbling block; the socio-political feeling in the world is getting seriously pro-green tech (especially amongst the young) and politicians may force/assist the change.

AND there will be casualties along the way............

And there is still 90-95% of the car market up for grabs for EVs over the next few years/decades – demand issue??! Like hell......…

When and who will fill that void when it becomes unstoppable – Tesla/AN Other(s)?

All this has induced “desperation' as the stakes are so high. The shorts/anti-EV/Tesla-hostile crowd must have a nagging feeling that they've lost the war and it is really mopping up time (but they will try to delay the inevitable). The 'analysts' (especially the anti-EV/Tesla dickheads) just keep pouring out the same deceit/lies/BS to protect vested interests – this gets more difficult as other OEMs shift determinedly over to EVs (didn't Elon suggest this to VAG in the aftermath of the dieselgate nonsense?) Much of the drivel written by analysts barely covers their desperation...…….Onehorn; Speegle etc

But even the Tesla fanbois are showing agitation and concern – even some desperate postings appear from diehards. The bigger picture is too hazy and they feel that Elon has 'lost them money'. Tesla too has behaved with apparent 'desperation' – the whole stores saga; pricing all over the place; messed up logistics/service/communication/you-name-it and so on. (Fodder for the FUDsters)

But certainly I believe Tesla to be a better space than ever before (and 'unable' to go bankwupt – some one would step in for sure if the need arose). They are churning out desirable ever-improving cars and their future vehicles look promising. But I am not certain of the CURRENT level of steady state worldwide demand for the Model 3; S and X.......Not sure Tesla does either and it is playing it by ear.

But even if demand in the foreseeable future is only 7000 cars a year, this is a temporary state till (ironically) DEMAND ramps up and follows the S-curve. So I see that Tesla just needs to hang in there, continuously improving the cars and efficiency of their production whilst remaining solvent so that they are well placed to increase production as required to meet whatever the demand is in 2, 5 or 10 years time.

It's a high stakes game/business for sure..........”The times they are a-changing.....”

This is a perfect encapsulation of where we sit at this moment in time. At some point, everybody's gonna be driving EVs. If Tesla somehow doesn't survive, it will undoubtedly be because they arrived at the table too early. In which case the larger mission succeeds because Tesla forced the hand of the competition.

Anyway, I appreciate the clarity of your words here. The tide is in the process of shifting. If Tesla is indeed a little early trying to catch the wave, they are so far ahead that (worst-case scenario) the bidding war for Tesla between Apple, VW, whomever would end up enriching all of us.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

You're getting a lot of grief for this comment, but I totally agree. Elon's talking like FSD is almost ready except for some red tape and additional validation, but my Model 3 still can't autopilot down the recently repaved and extremely well-marked (but curvy) Highway 68 by my house without crossing over the yellow lines. I really can't think of a more ideal test for AP (bright daylight, perfectly black pavement, wide road, bright white and bright yellow markings), but the car literally can't stay in its lane, even at 10-15MPH below the posted speed limit of 40MPH. Now it has been getting better - it would go way further over the yellow line 3 months ago and even more 6 months ago - but it doesn't inspire confidence that FSD is right around the corner if the car can't handle these ideal conditions. And that's just one example. I have dozens more where AP has performed poorly where you'd expect it to have no problem.

So while I agree that Elon has eventually done all the big things he's said he's going to do (and many of those things are world-changingly amazing), I'm skeptical about FSD being anywhere near releasable, even with the 3.0 neural nets. If the fundamentals aren't 100% rock-solid under ideal conditions, how's it going to do with all the poorly marked roads and millions of other corner cases it would need to deal with to be FSD?

I want to believe, but my the 0.0002% of Tesla's "data" that I've experienced is not inspiring confidence.

Important to distinguish FSD from Level 5 autonomy. One requires regulatory approval and one does not. Feature complete will not mean regulatory approval has been achieved and thus releasable to the public in it's final form.

Dan

 

[humbaba]

Not only do I believe in Elon, but I’m stunned on how fast he is accomplishing everything. Put Elon’s own time projections aside, and he’s ahead of everyone else’s EV projections.

Elon’s time projections are not lies, nor fantasies. They are his honest belief of how fast things should happen.

When my wife asks me how long my meeting will run she takes my answer and doubles it. If I say I’ll be home in two hours, she knows I will be home in four. Works every time.

When Elon gives a time projection, I add six months. Works every time.

Its been a few decades so I don't remember the exact method, but in high school the club I was in was the only club that was ever on time. The teacher's method was quite simple and it might have been the "make a best estimate and double it." The basic pessimism that underlay the success of the methodology impressed me even though I've neglected the exact method.

If you want to have Elon's timelines put into perspective, just ask a software engineer for a milestone timeline...

 

[dmvevguy]

From day 1 AP to EAP use now, I see a radical exponential improvement in about a ~2-3 year timeframe. There's a curve that it couldn't ever take, and now it's able to take it solid over the past few months' updates. I'm glad they aren't pre-programming a demo compared to Waymo etc. This is so exciting...I'm sure Tesla will deliver on FSD eventually and have first mover advantage.

Hell, Elon made the first reusable rocket that autonomously lands! This is so exciting to be a Tesla investor right now!

 

[jerry33]

Compared to the sensor suite a minuscule amount of data is required for each Tesla to keep track of each of its consumption and charging sessions and it should be possible for the owner to get access to this data, so people would know exactly how much their consumption is, for individual trips and overall.

Agreed, but that doesn't have much to do with EPA vs. real-world. It's like comparing metres to cubits. Both are valid, but not in every context.