Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Unpilot]

FWIW, one of the amendments to Tesla's deal with NY means that the employment requirements for the deal don't have to be at the factory at all, they just have to be in the right part of NY.

Service Centers in Buffalo and Syracuse please

OT
Just curios @neroden if you stay in the area your in for a specific reason. I am kinda "stuck" in the Midwest because of my partner's daughter needs to finish HS. After that it is off to warmer sunnier climates.

 

[SO16]

I worry more about him saying something stupid in another interview like 60 minutes and it edited in a way that gets him in trouble.

He really likes to touch fire. If it were me, I wouldn't want to even bring up the SEC anymore for the sake of my employees, fans, etc. and yet here he is back on twitter making references even today.

As long as he has the full (unedited) interview, I don’t mind.

 

[uselesslogin]

Found what I think is a very useful website for determining inventory cars.
Looks like 441 inventory model 3's in US as of 4/27.
10 in Canada.

See https://ev-cpo.com/hunter/

I wonder when and how often it updates. Just to be sure what do you see now? When I go to that link I see 277 US and 0 Canada.

 

[uselesslogin]

No idea what Oldtimer means but I’m still long and strong

In fact, I think I should add to my position...

I think 2013 counts. But technically the real oldtimer is someone who bought in 2010 and didn't sell after they were up 20% on the first day like I did. (I still bought back in at $40 though after the profitability tweet.)

 

[Remus]

I guess... I won't be too popular here, but I'm just a lurking retail investor monitoring the bulls' sentiment. It amazes me how could anyone enter into a trade with NO (up/down) exit strategy. Especially when there is a relatively lot of money at stake. I'd rather donate that money to non-profits.

That is because you are blind sir, metaphorically.

Most non profits are schemes to benefit the board members with crumbs given to so called "cause". I used to work for some rich people, one hot topic among them is how to get their friends in to these boards to benefit them and their kids avoiding tax at the same time.

And vast majority of them are incompetent at what they do. They are more inefficient than the government because they are not subject to either media scrutiny or market pressure.

Take the widely praised "girl who code". Before donating to them I enrolled my daughter to their program and watched. And then I tried to find the curriculum of their programs. As a software engineer I can responsibly say It's complete waste of time for the girls. The organizer and the coaches are incompetent and indifferent. They teach you how to draw a square on the screen and maybe you can then draw a triangle. They never touched the hard part on how to connect the dots and write a real program. And the organization is just a mess with so many obvious opportunities to cut cost.

I do donate to nonprofits in the cause that I feel really strongly about. But comparing Tesla to that lot? You gotta be kidding me sir.

 

[ggies07]

So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?

Still in it since 2012 at $35

 

[PANN]

Does anyone think Elon won't screw this up? His use of Twitter, which is probably similar to an addiction, will need to completely change if he is to follow the strict limits set by this agreement with the SEC. The ONLY way I see him not violating this is if he puts a plan in place where all Tesla related tweets are first sent to legal for review. That completely changes the casual way Elon tweets pretty much any Tesla info on Twitter. Is he really going to send all Tesla tweets first to legal for review? I find it hard to believe, but that would greatly reduce the chance of him violating this agreement. If he doesn't send all Tesla tweets to legal for review then he will almost certainly violate the agreement at some point. With Elon's hubris, I think the odds heavily favor him violating this agreement at some point.

I think we don't have to worry too much, before the 420 tweets, Tesla has been a public company for 8 years and Elon's tweets in those 8 years have never been accused of any violation by SEC. I believe the 420 tweets is a one-off thing and Elon has learnt the lesson.

 

[HG Wells]

I wonder when and how often it updates. Just to be sure what do you see now? When I go to that link I see 277 US and 0 Canada.

Yep down to 277 now.
Don't know if it is Tesla's update or his website update that resulted in drop.
Will have to check it to see how often it changes.

 

[brian45011]

Gerber indicated he had stops below $250 in this interview -- some of these may have been triggered today.

"We can always buy back in after 30 days" implies the Wash Sale Rule was applicable.

 

[Unpilot]

The tax credit cliff tested


Pent up US demand ? Already lots of inventory SR+ available in Chicago.

45 M3 show up for me in the Greater Saint Louis and Chicago area. Lets see Chicago greater area population is 9.5 Million
Chicago metropolitan area - Wikipedia

St Louis population is almost 3 Million
Greater St. Louis - Wikipedia

There are 183 BMW M3 available within the Chicago area

New BMW 3 Series for Sale in Chicago, IL - CarGurus

In Saint Louis there 63 BMW M3 available in the Saint Louis area

New 2018 BMW 3 Series for Sale in Saint Louis, MO - CarGurus

I draw different conclusions about demand than you.

 

[EV-CPO]

I wonder when and how often it updates. Just to be sure what do you see now? When I go to that link I see 277 US and 0 Canada.

It's updated continually, but not in real-time. There are currently 37 Model 3s listed in Canada, but no way to access them, as clicking on the link reverts back to the main MS inventory page. So Tesla hasn't opened up their Canadian website for M3 orders yet.

 

[dc_h]

One real concern I have is how much all these bad news coverage cumulatively stopped or delayed potential customers from purchasing a Tesla. Repeat lies enough number of times until it becomes true...?

I was too naive to think that Q3 and Q4 result from 2018 would have been sufficient proofs - looks like we need at least 1 more year of consistent delivery with no botched logistics and execution.


On the other hand - I am sure there are people in this world with enough capital who have a true fair valuation of Tesla. There's a real lower limit on how low TSLA can go.

I wondered as well. Stopped by local Tesla delivery sales shop and they seemed busy and said they’re doing great. I don’t think many people watch the financial news as closely as we do. One Trump advantage perhaps is people are less inclined to watch news, or to be obsessed by it. News junkies are people who aren’t changing their mind about much, just watching for reaffirmation. Sorry if anyone is a news junkie. I’m recovering.
Bottom line, if they got the cars, I think they’ll sell em. 4 ships out of SF80 and were told they’re full this quarter. That’s at least 4000 per boat and it’s april still. 30,000 in April still seems tough, but 30,000 in May seems in the bag. I think 25,000 in April should be a bullish sign on path to 90k for Q2.

 

[bdy0627]

I read this NN blog from Karpathy a few times, very helpful. My company is doing software and NN, so I have pretty high confidence that Tesla will achieve high level of FSD by end of 2019.

Software can be easily managed by just a small group of talented engineers, and it's 100 times easier and predictiable than volume car manufacturing. Elon comes from software background, and from the Automonous Day it's clear that he and the Tesla team have successfully progressed to a stage that they only have to keep fine-tuning the software & NN to make the FSD better every day.

I don't see any hell in software & NN, and from my 20+ years in software, I can understand why Elon (or any software background guy) would call volume car manufacturing "hell" -- when in software one guy can write the entire operating system (e.g. Linux), you feel really hellish when you see volume car manufacutring is subject to the stupidity of hundreds of suppliers and thousands of manufacturing workers that's just beyond your control.

This is really encouraging to hear. If you, Elon, and Karpathy are correct, this is going to be a lot of fun. Not only will the tech be amazing to see, but the coming stock rally is going to be absolutely epic. There will be no way to hold it back. As soon as the larger and smarter shorts perceive that FSD looks like the real deal, they will want out before the fuse is lit. Institutional longs will obviously want in. That's still a little ways off even if you guys are correct, but it's not THAT far out.

 

[carterm2]

I keep wondering...

How does Elon get so much done... and have a twitter account that is so active? Has he jacked twitter into his head?

and another crazy idea...

Who wants to make batteries? I know it is capital intensive... but who isn't going to buy them?

 

[Pras]

How old is old timer? Nearly 3 years and I still in, but not directly - via ARKK.

Were you always in ARK and not in TSLA? Because if you moved from TSLA to ARK, technically you are 1/10th the owner from what you were. Nothing wrong in doing that and maybe wiser for you to avoid the ups and down.

My point is let’s say you had invested in Ross G’s fund, you can’t say you invested in TSLA as he would keep changing the mix and even sell it when he needs to. So if you as an investor want to invest in TSLA, you directly use 1/10th of your money to hold TSLA and invest 9/10 elsewhere. That is a more definite way of saying, otherwise you can’t be sure.

Just my thought and I know others may not agree.

 

[Huskyf]

Good post of "USA TODAY" about Tesla is like to have a new car Everyday
Teslas for the robotaxi fleet: With every update, owners feel like they got a new car

 

[dc_h]

I guess it means the largest "month 1" of any quarter. I don't think April delivery can be more than Dec 2018 or March 2019, not even close. If we really get that many, we would hear a lot of noise on the internet about delivery. Also as someone pointed out, InsideEV number is US only.

They will have a 10,000 car head start after accidently ending the end of q wave, largely due to shipping delays. The bad quarter would have been bad anyhow, but by missing deliveries at the end of the quarter they’ve got an opportunity to end this destructive end of quarter push, which is needed for true scaling. I think this is a silver lining quarter and a good time to bulk up. I’m pretty well full in, but I will be looking at moving long term funds in 401 to self directed option.
Honestly the shorts are happy now, but their hope is Tesla is bk tomorrow and that is not happening. They just need to be cash flow positive in Q2 and guide for cash flow positive in Q3 and 4. The shorts ain’t going away, but once the story gets back on track, Wall Street will be begging to loan them money and the stock will start going up again.

 

[BornToFly]

Definitely worried about a text battle I had with my dad yesterday. He is one of the smartest people I know (and I'm a surgeon). He is a VERY successful long term investor in the market, focusing on multiple companies, and selling options. He reads constantly. He keeps telling me to stay away from TSLA. That the stock is going to drop more. That Tesla is getting killed by Jaguar and Audi in Europe, etc. If he is getting mislead by the Bear articles, it makes me worry what less intelligent investors think after reading the headlines.

 

[carterm2]

200 miles San Jose

Tesla.com shows no M3 inventory, 2 2018 Model S. No Model X

But the used inventory is full of 2015 and 2016 Model S, and 2016 Model X. Likely trade-ins for the new update.

 

[Opus BC fan]

So any old timer still in TSLA? How many did we lose on this round?

I had to buy more.
I may have to buy even more.
Sold some shares in 2014 and I still miss those shares. It did pay off my solar panels and P85 though...