And take the trolls with you please.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
X Fan
Active Member
Another "catchy" headline that buried in the article suggests Tesla could lose some growth investors.
Man, CNBC is relentless in their daily FUD articles. Right now I'd suggest that are the worst of the press in attacking TSLA.
CNBC on the attack today:
Tesla may be about to lose a key group of investors that have stuck with the struggling stock
Thesis:
Elon raised capital which boosted SP, but then he pivoted, moving the goalposts for profitability to a longer-term and more questionable strategy: autonomous vehicles. Investors were counting on Tesla profitability from high-volume, high-profit auto sales, but now instead all the focus is on autonomy which is 5 years out, so no profit until then and maybe never (DOOM).
The punchline (and headline) is that Tesla “may be about to lose a group of key investors that have stuck with the struggling stock” but will see this as the last straw. No such investors are named, but Barclay’s is quoted as rating the 12-month target for TSLA at $192. Not sure if that rating has recently been changed, article doesn’t say so but implies it.
Of course no mention of the YOY sales growth of Tesla’s vehicles, in stark contrast to YOY decline of ICE vehicles, probably because all ya gotta say is “They lost 700M last quarter! The demand is gone!” (And sometimes “they can’t make enough cars!”). Or of the fact that autonomy day, where self-driving and robotaxis were touted to investors, preceded the capital raise.
Sigh. What else can we say about this piece that is worthwhile here?
Tesla may be about to lose a key group of investors that have stuck with the struggling stock
Thesis:
Elon raised capital which boosted SP, but then he pivoted, moving the goalposts for profitability to a longer-term and more questionable strategy: autonomous vehicles. Investors were counting on Tesla profitability from high-volume, high-profit auto sales, but now instead all the focus is on autonomy which is 5 years out, so no profit until then and maybe never (DOOM).
The punchline (and headline) is that Tesla “may be about to lose a group of key investors that have stuck with the struggling stock” but will see this as the last straw. No such investors are named, but Barclay’s is quoted as rating the 12-month target for TSLA at $192. Not sure if that rating has recently been changed, article doesn’t say so but implies it.
Of course no mention of the YOY sales growth of Tesla’s vehicles, in stark contrast to YOY decline of ICE vehicles, probably because all ya gotta say is “They lost 700M last quarter! The demand is gone!” (And sometimes “they can’t make enough cars!”). Or of the fact that autonomy day, where self-driving and robotaxis were touted to investors, preceded the capital raise.
Sigh. What else can we say about this piece that is worthwhile here?
Tesla Registration Stats
It looks like fresh inventory of Model 3s have made their way to Norway. 60 registrations today, highest number since 4/11/19. In an ideal setting, there would be sufficient inventory on hand in all markets to allow an order to delivery time of one week or less. Within a few months, the sales figures would speak for themselves and put to rest (most) questions regarding demand vs production constraint and hopefully put an end tot he debate. No one talks about a demand problem when they walk into an ICE dealership and have their pick of cars from existing inventory.
Perhaps the capital/debt raise will help to build some inventory, at least in high volume markets.
It looks like fresh inventory of Model 3s have made their way to Norway. 60 registrations today, highest number since 4/11/19. In an ideal setting, there would be sufficient inventory on hand in all markets to allow an order to delivery time of one week or less. Within a few months, the sales figures would speak for themselves and put to rest (most) questions regarding demand vs production constraint and hopefully put an end tot he debate. No one talks about a demand problem when they walk into an ICE dealership and have their pick of cars from existing inventory.
Perhaps the capital/debt raise will help to build some inventory, at least in high volume markets.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Boosting his stake? I don't read many Teslarati articles, are they always this dumb?
@ZsoZso asked about the new shareholders. Some will be institutions that Goldman and Citi lined up to make the deal happen. That's a mix of flip and hold. The rest are almost all flippers. It was easy to lock in a guaranteed 12 bucks on this deal by shorting and/or setting up option spreads when TSLA was at 255.
The convert deal is much bigger. Those will mostly go to arbitrageurs who short the common in varying ratios to milk volatility.
I think that very few people who buy Jeeps are "off-roaders". The ones that are, make up the minority. But, all those Jeeps are dressed up with huge tires and absolutely no concern for efficiency. It is all in the mind of the buyer, (I know, my wife has a Model X and still wants a Jeep Renegade). Fantasy sells cars. Likely the Tesla T(ruck) will pull some of these buyers. But yah, EV's would be superior rock crawlers.
FSD applied learning from an expert Jeep rock crawling jockey, would be incredibly fun. pointless but ridiculously popular. I can imagine concrete parks in cities where people "rock climb" like a skateboard park.
When FSD learns to "drift",we can expect a jump in sales as well.
Speaking of drifting... the stock 1 minute chart has lots of cup shaped drops, until just now... sell in may.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
In case you missed it, here's a link to the May 6th Tesla Unofficial Daily Podcast:
FCA Credits, Self-Diagnostics (05.06.19)
Posted on May 6, 2019 by Rob Maurer
– Fiat-Chrysler discusses regulatory credit strategy
– Anthony Levandowski comments on Lidar
– Tesla add self-diagnostic service feature
Rob gives a shout-out ot @MP3Mike and the TMC Forum beginning at 6'13" into the podcast, on the topic of Tesla vehicle's ability to self-diagnose faults, order parts, and request the Owner make a service appointment.
FCA Credits, Self-Diagnostics (05.06.19)
Posted on May 6, 2019 by Rob Maurer
– Fiat-Chrysler discusses regulatory credit strategy
– Anthony Levandowski comments on Lidar
– Tesla add self-diagnostic service feature
Rob gives a shout-out ot @MP3Mike and the TMC Forum beginning at 6'13" into the podcast, on the topic of Tesla vehicle's ability to self-diagnose faults, order parts, and request the Owner make a service appointment.
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Ok off to ignore you go.That's no how it works at all. cross-licensing law is for similar patents in the same category between two parties or more. Not Mobileye exchanging computer vision and deep learning patents for a random EV manufacturer to use Tesla's EV patents. There should be a rule in this thread, saying you can't post anything without providing multiple in-dependent sources. Especially if people are gonna trade based on information provided here.
They weren't. They were still ~0.1%. Mobileye's chip were still in ~15 million cars and you are comparing that to sub 100k. Utilizing the tech to the fullest doesn't equate to what Mobileye sells their chip for. Even today, the tier 1s creating control software using EyeQ4 is probably only utilizing 5% of what EyeQ4 can do, yet mobileye is still selling it for the same price.
Let's recap the arguments so far:
Nothing unfair, EyeQ5 will be production ready in Q1 2020 and handily beats Teslas FSD chip.
You are literally just making stuff up at this point. Mobileye has hundreds of active vision patents.
Qualcomm sure did expose everyone that used their chips.
This is not how patent litigation works. This is not how any of this works.
Mobileye gets HD Mapping data (including lanes, stop line, traffic light, traffic light relevancy, traffic signs, road markings, road signs, road edge, barrier, etc) and drive trajectory of every intersection, roundabout in the world from millions of cars using EyeQ4.
For sure, the vast majority don't take them offroad, and as you said it's about image. When I was looking at SUVs a few years ago the Toyota 4runner ads all showed people driving through streams and mountains, even though almost nobody does that.
The Performance cars aren't so different in that area. Few of us ever go to the track.
Wait.
So you are claiming there are millions of cars online and connected that are funneling on-road data back to Mobileye?
No he completely conflated and used the charts out of context.
Intel provided two analysis, one was 1 Xavier vs 1 eyeq5 comparing deep learning performance and efficiency.
24 TOPS on 10 watts, versus 30 TOPS on 30 Watts. Which gives mobileye a 2.4x advantage.
Then they compared CPU compute with 1x Xavier with 2x EyeQ5 & Intel Atom (This was one of the their earlier config option for their AV KIT). This is completely different and is comparing CPU compute not NN(deep learning) compute.
@ReflexFunds completely butchered the two.
Doesn't matter because its irrelevant. They have finally settled on using 3x EyeQ5 and a second Fail operation board with a single 1x EyeQ5. Giving them a total of 96 DL TOPS using only 40 watts.
No I believe its actually the single chip that is ~100 TDP not the computer with two chip. I will give them a benefit of the doubt till we get analysis from verygreen about the true watts usage and whether the second chip is being used yet. First of all the benchmark with the 72 watts usage was done with the current production AP2 stack so that is the watt usage. Also remember the second chip have never been used in AP2.5. The benchmark against AP2 was running the current available stack and outputting ~80 watts.
That would be actually around 100 watts when the FSD neural networks are actually added. Remember that current AP is missing 10+ NN models needed for self driving that even EyeQ4 has. Also Karpathy has in the past said that the networks they have CANNOT run on AP2+ this is confirmed by verygreen and his investigations. Therefore they were running the current AP stack which is what Peter said.
When the full FSD stack is ran, the actual watts will be ~100. The question is then... Was the benchmark also running a duplicate in its second chip? If not then when a duplicate is ran in the second chip the actual watts would also be ~100 aswell.
So the full FSD computer would actually be 144 TOPS on ~200 watts. Also remember that FSD computer is fan cooled, but EyeQ5 doesn' need a fan because its passively cooled, no fan.
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Not at all, as i have explained they were running a benchmark with AP2 using current AP stack not FSD NN which we know won't even run on AP2 through what Karpathy said and based on verygreen analysis.
So the actually TDP running FSD would actually be ~100 watts. Also the question remains if the 72 watts included the second chip. We know that AP2+ still doesn't using the second chip for AP. So if the benchmark was just using one chip then the TDP when running both chip will actually be ~200 Watts.
But we know for sure the actual use with FSD will be ~100 watts.
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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
Everyone I know buying "Jeeps" these days are 40 year olds trying to hang on to some semblance of a fun life. As an '01 Wrangler owner I can tell you there hasn't been a real Jeep since 2006, these new 4 door monstrosities are just minivans with a different tub.
I've started plenty of EV Jeep threads here......they're way down below somewhere!
My next plan is to hook up with EVWest and some CA based off road fabricators next spring to build me a frame up TJ with as much guts as possible from a wrecked Model S/X/3. Only question is.....swap in a single/double motor and keep the 5sp transmission or go with direct drive on both axles?
I think Elon would be wise to start down the off road path in a year or so. It's very similar to the tactic of starting with the highest performing Roadster and working down the product chain. A stripped down Jeep-style EV would absolutely crush anything ICE on climbing and any other off road test. You could even roll out a Tesla solar canopy to charge in the field.
Joe F
Disruption is hard.
Personally, I don't care what their specs are. If I can't buy an EV which is fun to drive as any Tesla, one which I can drive anywhere in the US and have as robust a charging infrastructure as Tesla,
I. Don't. Care.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
But it's still OK to drive in a ludicrous way, right?
I'm pretty sure Tesla is on the hook for losses. They already tried the no-risk approach and the rates came in too high. This unnamed 3rd party will provide a backstop, for a hefty fee, so Tesla doesn't have to set aside regulatory capital. Berkshire does a lot of this, though this deal is small enough for any number of insurers to handle.
This one is a bit strange. No recent shipments in Norway that we know off. My working theory previously was that deliveries the last few weeks in Norway are mainly driven by cars coming out of rework and that the rate of them being delivered is indicative of service capacity to do whatever is needed to make them deliverable. Under that theory you'd expect a gradual slowing down of deliveries as the number of cars that are trivially fixable dwindle down. The only way to keep this theory going with this pop would be that these car share a 'defect' that is easily fixable but needed the arrival of spare parts from the US and that those just got there. Anyone have a better theory -> shoot.
For those not up to date, the first ship to arrive in Europe this quarter is passing the Channel and should arrive in Zeebrugge within the next 24 hours.
Morning Cornelia is arriving at Zeebrugge tomorrow. Zach Kirkhorn said recently that carriers contained more cars this quarter. Since there's been so few ships thus far maybe Tesla has been filling them. Dare one whish for over 5k or is that too much?
If I could I would stand there all day tomorrow just counting cars.
If I could I would stand there all day tomorrow just counting cars.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
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