Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Reciprocity]

Tesla's goal isn't to become the electric Mercedes Benz.

But to become ubiquitous and transition the world to sustainable energy ASAP.

That is one interpretation. Another is that Tesla wants to become Daimler to lead by example and force a change by attacking highest margins down. For example, they are going after high margin luxury cars which is forcing Daimler, Audi and BMW to counter. With S3XY, this basically covers 90% of the profits of European Autos and forces them to react in a meaningful way and not in a half-assed compliance way.

Pickups are to target the Margins of the big 3 US Autos. Model Y will help some with SUVs but they will need help from someone like Ravian to build more traditional SUV

Tesla is not going to make every car, they are going to make every car with >X margin and they are going to force a reaction which should lead to their goals being achieved, which is to accelerate the transition.

Tesla is making the Semi because frankly, no one else can. Tesla is not making buses, because those are already being made and are already getting traction. Tesla is not trying to solve problems that do not exist, they are using a scalpel to dissect the problem like a surgeon removing all the phat margins from the dying patient that is the auto industry.

The Tesla network should replace cars for everyone else. Meaning that car ownership goes away for many in a world where Tesla Network can take you where ever you want to go for 25c a mile, its to expensive to own a car.

For example if you commute 30 miles a day for work and 30 miles a day of errands, thats $15/day for 22 days a month or $330. You cant buy a car and pay insurance for that price. You can rent a Tesla on Turo for road trips.

In short order, Tesla will basically have a solution for all green transportation and will have set the standard which everyone else will have to achieve to survive. Will all car ownership stop, of course not. People still own horses. I know because my daughter is a person with a pony. Wish her luck in her horse show this weekend.

 

[mikevbf]

I understand the business model Elon described in the autonomy day presentation. Actually this is not new, the plan was described in the Master Plan Part Deux published a few years ago. I love the plan.

If "flip of switch" robotaxi for sure is coming next year, or even the year after, the sensible thing to do now is to borrow 20 billion dollars, buy back half the shares and cancel them. Because the company would be making boat load of money. Everyone has to estimate how likely this "flip of switch" is going to happen in the next 2~3 years.

Think about the following two scenarios:
A, Tesla shoot for maximum number of robot cars on the road, by the end of 2020, they reach 1.25 million cars and "flip the switch";
B, Tesla shoot for margin, by the end of 2020, they only reach 0.9 million cars and "flip the switch".

Does it make a difference from robotaxi operation point of view? I think the difference is very small.

For robotaxi plan to work, the availability of true FSD carries 99% of the weight, the number of robot cars only has 1% importance, because a lot more cars can be added quickly, no technical issues.

Elon and his teams have solved some extremely difficult tech issues. I hope he is right on vision based FSD and the timing. I think this is at least 10 times more difficult than landing rockets. I definitely hope he is right.

Yes, Elon has planned for autonomous tesla fleet for a long time. What is new is to decide now to aim for cash flow neutral not positive before the fleet arrives in order to maximize the number of possible eligible Tesla on the road when that day arrives. I believe his reasoning behind this is the increased profit generated by a larger fleet when the switch is flipped outweighs the profit gained by selling fewer, but higher margin vehicles at the cost of having a smaller fleet on that day. And making 350,000 more cars by that day is significant. But i agree with you from where we stand, reaching FSD seems like a bigger question. My point is where we are all still on step will Tesla be able to accomplish FSD, Elon is making his moves based on the assumption FSD is definitely accomplished in the next year, year and half.

 

[Joe F]

Yep, current screens develop yellow bands around the edges after a while(mine did after ~2 years). Support has said they’ll replace all MCU screens with new ones that won’t have that problem in July.

Just got back from service, and after addressing several minor issues, and requesting the MCU replacement, was told my yellow tattooed screen would be replaced by a mobile tech. Never mentioned July. Guess I'll have to put the tech off till then if they try to schedule sooner.

Thanks for the tip!

 

[madodel]

Hey everyone - what a shitty week that was, over nothing too! Hey ho, have a nice weekend y’all.

Stole this from Facebook Model X Owners...

View attachment 406337

That should be "Tesla Stock Owners"! I'm so use to this rollercoaster stock that none of it surprises me anymore.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Just got back from service, and after addressing several minor issues, and requesting the MCU replacement, was told my yellow tattooed screen would be replaced by a mobile tech. Never mentioned July. Guess I'll have to put the tech off till then if they try to schedule sooner.

Thanks for the tip!

There’s some (very inconsistent) chatter that some mobile techs may have the new ones in stock. Others are saying thing varying from mid summer to December.

 

[Curt Renz]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'

As if living in IL wasn't ridiculously expensive enough..

Are they going to start charging EV drivers more on the toll roads too?!

And an annual $1000 flat fee is especially outrageous for retirees and others with low annual mileage. As essentially the case with gasoline taxes, the fee should be based on miles driven. Tesla can provide that information to the state. That would be no more onerous than a stock brokerage being required to provide information to the IRS on the trading done by each client. An alternative could be for the state to provide odometer transponders like they do for tollway trips. If this annual $1000 fee becomes law, only very high mileage drivers may be buying Teslas in Illinois.

Sen. Sandoval chairs the transportation committee and appears to be a friend of the Illinois Automobile Dealers Association. Until EVs become ubiquitous, they should be encouraged and certainly never discouraged.

I emailed my state legislators and governor about these concerns. Other Illinois residents may want to do the same. Interestingly the Illinois Senate President John Cullerton was one of the earliest Model S owners and cut the ribbon opening the first Supercharger station in Illinois. I also emailed both Sen. Cullerton and Sen. Sandoval, and those were accepted despite my address being outside of their districts.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

And you don’t think high deliveries/cash flow in Q2 would be a positive catalyst?

Actually not, no. The only catalyst I can see is TSLA making (solid) profit - and that's reportedly not going to happen in Q2. It's the only way to prove bear / media narrative wrong.

 

[dqd88]

Tesla's goal isn't to become the electric Mercedes Benz.

But to become ubiquitous and transition the world to sustainable energy ASAP.

By becoming the "electric Mercedes Benz" it will "transition the world to sustainable energy ASAP."

Leverage effect.

 

[Pras]

Actually not, no. The only catalyst I can see is TSLA making (solid) profit - and that's reportedly not going to happen in Q2. It's the only way to prove bear / media narrative wrong.

No. Just the delivery numbers would do. Profitability can be explained by factors (eg capital expense and margins), but there is no better way to answer the question of lack of demand than showing the delivery number. So I think the July 4th fireworks can be more enjoyable.

 

[Prunesquallor]

And an annual $1000 flat fee is especially outrageous for retirees and others with low annual mileage. As essentially the case with gasoline taxes, the fee should be based on miles driven. Tesla can provide that information to the state. That would be no more onerous than a stock brokerage being required to provide information to the IRS on the trading done by each client. An alternative could be for the state to provide odometer transponders like they do for tollway trips. If this annual $1000 fee becomes law, only very high mileage drivers may be buying Teslas in Illinois.

Sen. Sandoval chairs the transportation committee and appears to be a friend of the Illinois Automobile Dealers Association. Until EVs become ubiquitous, they should be encouraged and certainly never discouraged.

I emailed my state legislators and governor about these concerns. Other Illinois residents may want to do the same. Interestingly the Illinois Senate President John Cullerton was one of the earliest Model S owners and cut the ribbon opening the first Supercharger station in Illinois. I also emailed both Sen. Cullerton and Sen. Sandoval, and those were accepted despite my address being outside of their districts.

Keep it up and spread the news. Use the forums to multiply the responses. Come up with example emails and pass them around. Let media know. Most politicians have Twittier accounts. Hammer them.

We fought against some changes we didn’t like in Texas (very powerful dealership lobby) and won (well, kept things from getting worse). It can be done.

 

[TradingInvest]

So why is Tesla trading with the China news worse that others? Isn’t Tesla’s exposure actually less/better than most and way less in the long run with GF2?

For the legacy car companies, only a tiny portion of cars are produced in the US then exported to China. I think it's like 1~2%.

For Tesla, every car that sells in China has to pay the tariff. We can say down the road Tesla Shanghai will produce locally, there are potential problems. 1. High end Tesla cars would still be shipped to China and pay tariff; 2. Scale production in Shanghai probably is 9 months away.

 

[msvoyager]

Chicago Tribune - today: Illinois might start charging $1,000 per year to own an electric vehicle: 'It's outrageous'
I emailed my state legislators and governor about these concerns. Other Illinois residents may want to do the same. Interestingly the Illinois Senate President John Cullerton was one of the earliest Model S owners and cut the ribbon opening the first Supercharger station in Illinois. I also emailed both Sen. Cullerton and Sen. Sandoval, and those were accepted despite my address being outside of their districts.

Hi Curt,
I did the same, see example content and links here. Everyone else, please do so as well. This is indeed unfair and outrageous !

 

[Webeevdrivers]

There’s a direct correlation between #1 and #3 above(hint: look at exactly when that bump of the capital raise went away).

And you don’t think high deliveries/cash flow in Q2 would be a positive catalyst?

Probably. But has there been any indication of that? Last quarter people got worked into a frenzy with some thinking the numbers would be north of 80,000. Will we see that again? I get the impression that deliveries (or at least orders) are going well in Canada. How about over seas, China etc. Any real numbers?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Probably. But has there been any indication of that? Last quarter people got worked into a frenzy with some thinking the numbers would be north of 80,000. Will we see that again? I get the impression that deliveries (or at least orders) are going well in Canada. How about over seas, China etc. Any real numbers?

Tesla has clamped down pretty well on leaks, so no, very little data.

 

[Anstandswauwau]

No. Just the delivery numbers would do. Profitability can be explained by factors (eg capital expense and margins), but there is no better way to answer the question of lack of demand than showing the delivery number. So I think the July 4th fireworks can be more enjoyable.

Lack of demand is just one part of the bear narrative I'd say, the others are falling ASP and lower-than-expected margins on SR(+).

 

[ClimateOptimst]

Overheard from friends (over the years) that he listens to brief from leaders and have hands on engineer present their work, on a weekly basis. He did skip some of the weekly meetings but attended most.

I am not sure how much "more" he can get involved.

as a good CEO would, he keeps a tab on many things and knows better than anyone what the next key bottleneck is to focus a company's resources on. now that the FSD computer is in production and shipping in cars, it's the logical time to push harder in that area and get the ball across the goal line. the unique thing about Elon is that rather than simply directing resources at the problem as other CEOs would, he understands the technical details well enough to dive in and be part of those resources.

 

[Reciprocity]

And an annual $1000 flat fee is especially outrageous for retirees and others with low annual mileage. As essentially the case with gasoline taxes, the fee should be based on miles driven. Tesla can provide that information to the state. That would be no more onerous than a stock brokerage being required to provide information to the IRS on the trading done by each client. An alternative could be for the state to provide odometer transponders like they do for tollway trips. If this annual $1000 fee becomes law, only very high mileage drivers may be buying Teslas in Illinois.

Sen. Sandoval chairs the transportation committee and appears to be a friend of the Illinois Automobile Dealers Association. Until EVs become ubiquitous, they should be encouraged and certainly never discouraged.

I emailed my state legislators and governor about these concerns. Other Illinois residents may want to do the same. Interestingly the Illinois Senate President John Cullerton was one of the earliest Model S owners and cut the ribbon opening the first Supercharger station in Illinois. I also emailed both Sen. Cullerton and Sen. Sandoval, and those were accepted despite my address being outside of their districts.

I can't wait to leave this corrupt shitty state. If only I could sell me house, which I can't because of the punitive property taxes. BTW, I pay more I'm local taxes then federal mostly due to high property taxes. Moving to Texas will save me $20k/year.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Probably. But has there been any indication of that? Last quarter people got worked into a frenzy with some thinking the numbers would be north of 80,000. Will we see that again? I get the impression that deliveries (or at least orders) are going well in Canada. How about over seas, China etc. Any real numbers?

Last quarter they got worked into a frenzy because Tesla had not given any guidance. This quarter there was clear guidance: 90.000-100.000 deliveries. That should keep a lid on it.

On another note: is today Debbie Downer Day? So much negativity. We must be near the bottom.

 

[EVNow]

No. Just the delivery numbers would do. Profitability can be explained by factors (eg capital expense and margins), but there is no better way to answer the question of lack of demand than showing the delivery number. So I think the July 4th fireworks can be more enjoyable.

We kind of need both deliveries and P&L. This way we know the ASP and margins as well. Auto analysts are used to driving sales by giving large discounts.

 

[Reciprocity]

Hi Curt,
I did the same, see example content and links here. Everyone else, please do so as well. This is indeed unfair and outrageous !

LoL, there is zero chance to oppose a tax in Illinois. Even when the Governor was a republican billionaire, they forced him into raising taxes. Taxes only go one direction here in IL, up. Good luck, I'm getting the f out ASAP.