Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Dutchie]

Tesla won't be the first, nor will they be on time. Their self-driving stack is pretty weak, and chasing the last 9s is extremely difficult. I give them maybe 5-10 years (probably closer to 10) for having FSD working.

And it definitely won't be with their current laughably inadquite hardware stack.

It was also impossible to beat a professional "Go" player, let alone the world champion..

 

[MattFishbach]

Their sensor suite has no redendency built into it, and lacks the proper cleaning mechanisms. Try using AP in the rain/snow or when your car is dirty. Unless they retrofit all the old cars with new sensors, they aren't going to be able to do anything close to FSD.
The compute, while pretty decent for a SoC is still much less than anything that Uber, Waymo, or Cruise have. They have very little overhead for scaling to larger, more complex models.

Lastly collecting/tagging data... It sounds nice in theory, but in practice their infrastucture is not set up for doing this properly (yet). Maybe they'll get there one day, but they are a long way away from it.

Posts from this member would have more credibility if they had less spelling errors...

 

[neroden]

Iirc, Elon said this during the groundbreaking ceremony in Shanghai. That was very difficult to believe as he was standing in a field of mud. With the current progress of GF3, it’s less unbelievable. However, I also think Elon dialed it down to 1000 or 2000/week by the end of the year during the latest earnings cc.

I believe this is all correct.

They're still TARGETING 3000/week by the end of the year, but even Elon is admitting it doesn't look likely now.

 

[neroden]

The new badging strategy is stupid. Aren't they all dual motor? I ordered a Raven XP with Ludicrous and I am debadging the ducking thing if it comes with "dual motor".

I think it's because it's matching the Model 3 badging. Actually, check, it's probably literally the same badge...

 

[Artful Dodger]

Where is the SEC on this short seller?

Keeping the world safe from Twitter.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Tesla, of course. With their crappy site layout.

View attachment 410322

I fully support Tesla posting prices this way. I’ve gotten a few people to buy a Model 3 but only after making them realize how much they were actually paying for gas each week. To most people it’s a separate expense that they don’t even associate with the total cost of ownership of their vehicle.

 

[Zaxxon]

They didn't make any changes to the battery pack for raven, just motor suspension wheel bearings and different tires.

200 kW charging was specifically called out as a part of the Raven changes.

Edit for clarification--agree that the battery itself didn't. But wiring, cooling, etc could have been subtlely improved to allow 200 kW. We'll find out once v3 Superchargers are more prevalent and we get non-Ravens using them.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I did a bit more research and found an average viewership of 154,000 for CNBC in 2018. That is appaling, in a country of 330 million people. Why are we even talking about what that channel says? Is it because many here are investors and some have that channel on 24/7, that are we giving CNBC so much weight? Much more than it deserves? What is the influence on TSLA, let alone on Tesla (potential customers)?

It’s only that high because many companies have it playing on the screen in the lobby with no sound, just to make it appear they are plugged into the market. It’s a screen-saver

 

[Dutchie]

Their sensor suite has no redendency built into it, and lacks the proper cleaning mechanisms. Try using AP in the rain/snow or when your car is dirty. Unless they retrofit all the old cars with new sensors, they aren't going to be able to do anything close to FSD.
The compute, while pretty decent for a SoC is still much less than anything that Uber, Waymo, or Cruise have. They have very little overhead for scaling to larger, more complex models.

Lastly collecting/tagging data... It sounds nice in theory, but in practice their infrastucture is not set up for doing this properly (yet). Maybe they'll get there one day, but they are a long way away from it.

With all due respect. I trust Andrej Karpathy and his team in knowing what they are doing. People just posting these messages without knowing exactly what Tesla is doing does not hold any merit.

 

[neroden]

Another Tesla myth. They are more vertically integrated than the typical carmaker, but they only had 41k employees on 3/31/19. Even if half are in manufacturing (estimates say less), that's not even 1.5 billion of annual labor COGS vs. 15b+ total annual auto COGS. Add another billion for depreciation of plants, equipment and tooling and you're still only at 15% or so of total auto COGS. The other 85% is almost entirely purchased parts and materials. Steel, aluminum and plastic are a small part of that.

Yeah, I looked up the top suppliers a few years ago. It is true that they purchase a hell of a lot of bolts and fasteners; bolt-and-fastener companies are SEVERAL of the top ten. Raw aluminum and steel suppliers are also in the top ten. Then there's wiring suppliers. There are also several suppliers of fabricated plastic pieces, although apparently Tesla makes a bunch of their own too.

The point is that Tesla doesn't use very many "Tier I" auto suppliers. A lot of "Tier II" and "Tier III", and a lot of raw materials. There are not as many sole-sourcing issues with bolt suppliers (though bolt quality is a *huge* issue).

And for the more complex items, the Brembo brakes will probably still have to come from Brembo, not from some Chinese company.

It's only stamping, welding/joining, paint and final assembly plus battery module/pack assembly in this year. That's Phase 1, which they say will achieve 3000/week. That's straight from the 10-K, the Q4 letter and the Q4 call. I'm certain they also said they will add seat and drive unit assembly in 2020, but I can't find the quote. I don't recall if they said anything about casting.

Please note the conclusion: that seats, drive units, and castings will be exported from the US to China initially. Since they're all Tesla-manufactured.

 

[TradingInvest]

I’m in the exact same boat actually, 6 figures loss still but very close to 7. Margin call looming. Now, this is gonna bite me, but Tesla also! Very likely that I’m gonna cancel my MX P100DL order, because of the impact of Elon telegraphing Wall street the 10 months till bankruptcy.

You see, I’m just an average Joe, no way I could afford a $130K car if it wasn’t for the gain from the stock. I have to believe there are more people in the same situation as me.

@rdalcanto and @mulder1231, sorry to hear about your loss. I think a lot of people are in similar situation. Many are not on this forum.

Here are some of my thoughts, definitely not advice. I have never tried these, in theory this might work, especially #1. Remember #1 doesn't reduce your liability in case there is a big drop, it should prevent forced closing.

1. Buy some near term out of money Puts, which could reduce margin pressure with very small amount of money.
2. Sell a little bit shares to reduce margin pressure. Buy a bit long term out of money calls if you feel mad about selling now.
3. Don't panic, don't gamble. Plan ahead what you will do for each situation.

I used to have a different user ID, I warned many times about the danger of leveraged investment, especially margin. For those who used margin for whatever reason, they should set hard sell limits to stop out before it gets too bad. (not to stop out all position, but at least to reduce margin, before it's out of control).

 

[neroden]

Talking to the person in charge... it's evident to me production ramp in Shanghai is going to be much more difficult than people here think.

:shrug:

Also more difficult than Elon Musk thinks. My point was that Musk is still targeting mass production at the end of the year. Will they miss it? Probably.

 

[Cherry Wine]

I think it's because it's matching the Model 3 badging. Actually, check, it's probably literally the same badge...

Shared cost efficiencies for the win!!

 

[neroden]

Actually Elon exercised some options after hours, the shorts are saying it’s because of his margin call.

So the shorts are complete unmitigated idiots? That's not how margin calls work.

 

[neroden]

I wish Kimbal did the same, he has been selling all these years. Elon is a champ for doing this move and infusing 5,5 mil to the company to show his commitment.

Even if it is something to do with margin call, as you can't have options as collateral, but you can have shares or cash. And he chose shares.

You can have options as collateral, actually

 

[renim]

depending on the particular lidar, it can see though the rain or fog better or worse than vision. technically the briefer the pulse, the better the lidar is at avoiding the droplets, the nature of the technology is that (for a given eye safety) more range requires more power, requires shorter duration which incidentally improves seeing through rain.

 

[Beltsbear]

Yeah, I looked up the top suppliers a few years ago. It is true that they purchase a hell of a lot of bolts and fasteners; bolt-and-fastener companies are SEVERAL of the top ten. Raw aluminum and steel suppliers are also in the top ten. Then there's wiring suppliers. There are also several suppliers of fabricated plastic pieces, although apparently Tesla makes a bunch of their own too.

The point is that Tesla doesn't use very many "Tier I" auto suppliers. A lot of "Tier II" and "Tier III", and a lot of raw materials. There are not as many sole-sourcing issues with bolt suppliers (though bolt quality is a *huge* issue).

And for the more complex items, the Brembo brakes will probably still have to come from Brembo, not from some Chinese company.



Please note the conclusion: that seats, drive units, and castings will be exported from the US to China initially. Since they're all Tesla-manufactured.

I think they can set up seat making in China pretty fast. They are big and labor intensive so a good fit for local China vs shipping. Drive units from America for sure.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Have to sign off for the night. My “Ignore” finger is worn out.

 

[elasalle]

EM should just put the word out that he is willing to sell some SpaceX to get some TSLA ...(just after the 60 satellite launch) ...

 

[sundaymorning]

I relistened to Q1 Conference Calls and at the 33 minute mark Elon stated that he expects to lower the price of S&X due to reduce cost of 5-7%. Which makes sense given today’s announcement on lowering the price of SX by around $3k.