Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Totally selfish post here.

Come on TSLA, stay below $200 until Tuesday when the rest of my powder is fully dry and I can pull the trigger! Then I can sit back and watch the fireworks over the next 5 years or so. As for the rest of you? Sorry, you are just going to have to wait 5 more days to see a sharp rise. lol!

Dan

Good timing. I’m buying my 420th share today, which I’m pretty sure will start the short squeeze.

 

[Don TLR]

I made it to 200 on this mornings dip and probably should have waited. but in 10 years it won't matter.

 

[AlMc]

Every 'extended' holiday. (Friday to Tuesday) the big buyers seem to be soaking up the sun while the 'anti TSLA/EM' faction drives the price down. Nothing new today.

Now, the last couple July 4th holiday weeks have been 'horrible' TSLA days. With the coinciding of the P/D report for Q2 AND the July 4th holiday week my head is about to explode trying to figure out what will happen with the SP.

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

No,
1) Elon would have said so by now. He literally tells us all his other crazy future plans.
2) You can track satellites because you know exactly how fast they are moving and they don't hit bumps. Once a car starts moving how is that supposed to work? It can go any direction, any speed, and tons of bumps. You would have to significantly reduce throughput to make this work and that takes away from everyone else's bandwidth. So I guess, maybe, but they would need tons more satellites.

If Starlink is successful and deploys their 12,000 satellites I think it is a guarantee Tesla will have their cars on that network.

The antenna size right now is the size of a pizza box for a slice. You don't think they could hide that within the car (Like they currently do with the FM antenna).

Besides this is 5 years out or so. Lots can change by then.

 

[TradingInvest]

And if so, why? Not only does it not make sense at this point, but certainly they would not sell in huge clumps of shares that result in the stock dropping. One thing is clear, shorts continue to rule due to a lack of buyers. At what price will enough buyers show up to negate the manipulation selling?

After big drops, retail buyers don't have a lot of power. Big buyers generally don't try to push the price higher, they wait or slowly accumulate at lower price, why not? Meanwhile, if we have parties who want to drive down the stock and trigger stop losses, they could achieve it.

 

[kelevra]

was posted a couple days ago somewhere here, and covered on news sites all day yesterday

Dropbox - TSLA-Morgan Stanley call-5-22-19.MP3 - Simplify your life

just heard the call. I think it's very interesting as it is the first time for me i heard a call like this.
Do you know where exactly it was posted and who posted it?
Do you know if there is more stuff like this (also research reports of the analysts) available somewhere?
I think it would be pretty cool to have a collection of it.

My thoughts about it:
I think Adam Jones gave the impression that he thought about and discussed every potential argument. While there where some interesting new ideas (e.g. the possibility that China wouldn't like cars with cameras on their streets in the case of a full trade war) there where also some points i didn't like. Those are:
1. He tried to sound a bit too much like an absolute authority in this topic. (Of course it's his job to sell himself)
2. He said that the situation changed dramatically as Tesla had more demand than supply, a positive cash flow situation and Model Y upcoming at the end of the year and all those things turned sour BUT
A) It was obvious that Tesla was working through it's orders and the tax credit cut was coming so the demand risk was there all along and of course still is. Nonetheless he didn't address some specific factors of the last quarter like the S/X refresh or the price changes enough and the whole call was under the impression that Tesla may have a lasting demand problem which is not proven at all.
B) He didn't talk about the possibility to change some Model 3 production into Model Y production.
C) He didn't discuss the possibility that Tesla didn't try to hype the Model Y in order to get more orders for their existing cars. (Anti-selling)
D) His view on marketing is kind of silly. Of course Tesla as a brand already has a lot of attention but especially in Germany it's also a lot of bad attention. I feel much more people would consider buying a Tesla if they wouldn't feel like some others would view it as negative. Tesla could do a lot more to correct the general negative conception.
3. He made it seem like there would be no potential buyers for Tesla the company and didn't discuss the possibility that one company e.g. Alphabet or Apple could buy Tesla for its autonomous tech and sell the auto part to e.g. VW who needs the battery tech.

By the way i strongly believe that Teslas Assets are worth more than it's debt and would love to buy the 2022 convertible. Does anyone here knows how to do it? I am a resident in Europe and would consider opening a account e.g. at a broker in the u.s. if this is possible.

 

[powertoold]

Starlink will not work with moving vehicles, other than maybe semis which can carry large enough antenna.
Must have line of sight, cities, tunnels, garages, etc. would cause it to be disabled.
Starlink FAQs Starlink FAQ : Starlink

During the launch webcast, they said they tested the sat connection with an airplane.

 

[davecolene0606]

$13b in gross debt is probably close, but most other major automakers have $100+ billion in gross debt.

Not that matters where the debt I’d from, but, none of Tesla’s is government loans unlike GM/ Ford.

Just for the record

Fire Away!

 

[JRP3]

During the launch webcast, they said they tested the sat connection with an airplane.

Right, basically a flying semi, with no line of site problems.

 

[Spacemanspliff]

Edit: Instead of typing in all caps because I personally hate how this is brought up frequently. Can someone please post a solid source saying that the Starlink Antenna will not be a pizza box sized array that requires fixed terrestrial installation? I just don't see how this would even work in a mobile application and I don't see adding an expensive pizza-box sized antenna to a car is useful.

(Edit note - I have two disagrees for a message that was probably against forum rules. But, I do think Starlink is useless for Tesla cars other than providing Elon more money.)

Its useless for cars at this current state, it can work with larger things like planes and ships.

SpaceX’s first 60 Starlink broadband satellites deployed in orbit – Spaceflight Now

Heres an article I was reading right now:

Musk said the user terminal consumers will use to connect with the Starlink network is a flat antenna — about the size of a small or medium pizza — that is relatively simple to set up. He did not say how much the user terminal will cost, or disclose the expected price of a subscription to Starlink’s broadband service.

 

[bdy0627]

After big drops, retail buyers don't have a lot of power. Big buyers generally don't try to push the price higher, they wait or slowly accumulate at lower price, why not? Meanwhile, if we have parties who want to drive down the stock and trigger stop losses, they could achieve it.

But we are seeing a different dynamic this time with TSLA. There have been many many big dips in the past, always followed by relatively robust bounces. I'm not particularly shocked by the depth of this dip, but I am surprised by the lack of a bounce thus far after capitulation.

 

[Bet the House]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

 

[wipster]

Only parts of me do.

That's why I only use One Wipe Charlies... Aloe vera for your nether regions!

 

[ZachShahan]

Tweeted it to the Tesla account but didn’t get much traction. Don’t have much of a twitter presence though.

Mase Goslin on Twitter

I'm writing up a short piece on it. Beautiful. Will reference and link to your Twitter account and here.

I don't think Elon sees everything we publish, but he obviously sees a lot given that he gives us RTs or <3s almost every day.

Targeting it for a time he tends to be online.

 

[anthonyj]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

If you’re going to do this please lock some profits on the way up

 

[EVNow]

But we are seeing a different dynamic this time with TSLA. There have been many many big dips in the past, always followed by relatively robust bounces. I'm not particularly shocked by the depth of this dip, but I am surprised by the lack of a bounce thus far after capitulation.

Because the shorts are feeling extra bold. Only a big player buying millions of shares steadily over many days and defending a price point can stop them until some delivery numbers come out.

 

[uselesslogin]

Its useless for cars at this current state, it can work with larger things like planes and ships.

SpaceX’s first 60 Starlink broadband satellites deployed in orbit – Spaceflight Now

Heres an article I was reading right now:

Also planes and ships don't have line-of-site issues. I must admit I wouldn't have thought it could work from a plane until the last few minutes lol. So now I go to line-of-site issues. But I have to just throw up my hands and say 'who knows.' I'm sure it won't work in tunnels but anywhere else with so many satellites it might be able to find line-of-sight to one of them.

 

[TradingInvest]

I met a friend who sells Audi this morning. Along with the coffee shop owner, we shared views of electric cars. Of course he was annoyed that I bought a Tesla. Regardless, the sales guy dissed Tesla, so far as saying how much he hates the CEO and the company as a whole. Reason #1 from his perspective, Tesla destroyed the auto (sales) industry. The sales guy quickly went on to talk about range, in that you have to keep these things charged. You know where that goes, no argument after I explained SC availability and recharging from 20% to 90% in 50 minutes and convenience of charging nightly from low amperage outlets in a pinch to the more typical 14-50 configuration. And that if neither of those are possible, we have PlugShare and ability to use the public charging infrastructure if all else fails. Thereafter it was the argument of maintenance, battery replacement, all the usual BS. I took a moment to explain maintenance concerns and warranty, suddenly he'd come around. We didn't even get into discussing AP, EAP, dare I say FSD, NoA, how it works, what works well, what doesn't, when to use, when not to, firmware updates that aim to improve the experience of riding the hardware. To me that is the icing on the cake. Maybe we just need more of the pro-EV writers to publish articles to distill and better inform those on the sideline or seemingly on the defense?

There are a lot of things (and cost very little) that Tesla can do to spread the message.

1. A nicely designed informational website would help;
2. Some video clips to address each topic;
3. Find a few EV disbelievers, do a week long research. Let them drive a Tesla for a week, explain to them all the pros and cons, after the week, see what they say. Maybe publish a few stories around these cases.

 

[Joe F]

Hmm. So where is Tesla in terms of toilet paper consumption compared with competitors? It's undoubtedly high right now with the stock performance over the last 6 months.

I'd argue the competition uses more after seeing their sales compared to Model 3.

 

[JohnDinger]

First time poster (long time lurker)...

As my user name suggests, I am about to make, by far, the largest bet of my life and will be buying 1,000 shares of Tesla once the funds clear in about a week or so. I will be using a good amount of borrowed money to make the purchase (which includes some margin from my broker as well).

Fortunately, I have a pretty good and steady job that would allow me to pay back any loses within 4-5 years or so if things go south (I am a CPA as well so even if I lose my job I should be able to fine another one fairly quickly in my market). The way I see it, I am borrowing from my future to buy Tesla at this level today, as opposed to buying the same number of shares over the next 4-5 years.

I would never recommend this to anyone and am still having second thoughts myself but on my death bed I will look back at this and say I am glad that I did it (whether it works out for me or not).

Good luck to all but especially Tesla!

This is a bad investment strategy. No one should be investing 4-5 years worth of savings into a single stock.


The wise regret of most wealthy men:

"I wish I'd bet more."