Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Nocturnal]

Well, I wish I had more to invest, but am now highly resistant to margin calls and comfy with the 2021 puts I sold. I honestly expect Q2 results to surprise the Street positively at this point, since it has been pure bear raid nonsense for weeks in the news.

When half the market thinks that they are going bankrupt it will be hard NOT to surprise them.

 

[Drax7]

Raven models are now shipping steadily as per forum deliveries.
A necessary but not sufficient condition, that is getting S and X to full
Production.

If model 3 production is approaching cell production of 7000 per week
As Fact Checking surmised, then it seems we can have a decent quarter.

We Need more data to confirm , however if that is the case we are on the right
Trajectory . Once the fundamentals turn, so will the stock price.

 

[ZachF]

We’re so far below any semblance of support it’s pretty scary.

I’m lowering any new entry point to nearly 20% below these levels. Unless we somehow get confidently over 225$ with volume. Which frankly I do not see happening anytime soon

~$180 is a strong support level that it only broke once in 2016.

 

[Nocturnal]

Raven models are now shipping steadily as per forums deliveries.
A necessary but not sufficient condition, that is getting S and X to full
Production.

If model 3 production is approaching cell production of 7000 per week
As Fact Checking surmised, then it seems we can have a decent quarter.

We Need more data to confirm , however if that is the case we are on the right
Trajectory . Once the fundamentals turn, so will the stock price.

One datapoint. One of the dad's in my kid's class randomly mentioned he was buying a model S. I had no idea he was a Tesla fan. His delivery has been delayed a few times so even with that lower S demand it doesn't seem like they were just piling up unsold somewhere. 100D.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Example: On my latest drive over I-5 Grapevine (~30 mi of winding 3-4 lane freeway) NOA made some really stupid lane choices. While in lane 3 of 4 lanes, on an uphill section with semi-trucks going 30-40 MPH why would it choose lane 4 to pass the truck when lanes 1,2 were completely empty? It's quite legal... but dumb. [AP 2.5; V2019.16.2, set to no-confirm lane change, "normal" mode]

Passing in lanes 1-2, while legal, is more dangerous. People assume, wrongly, that they can shift into a “slower” lane without shoulder checking, whenever I’m passing in lane 1-2, I’m extra careful and give more margin of safety.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Ride the Lightning: Tesla Motors Unofficial Podcast: Episode 200: My Elon Musk Interview

I am reposting this since some here have not heard this podcast over the weekend with EM. Hear from the man himself on all things Tesla. Interesting tidbits. The company is not sitting still, and you can tell on some answers he was trying to choose his words carefully.

Or you can read interpretations (Tesla pickup, Y built in Freemont, how Model S came to be, why Hanz left Mazda for Tesla) of this hour long interview on CNBC,Bloomberg and various EV blogs.

 

[Yeomen]

Yes, perceived company health good or bad will affect SP of any company.


Trust me, though you have no reason to, you still should. We (the good guys) win or we all (good and bad) die a horrible death. I plan on leaving this world kicking screaming and doing what’s right. How about you?

Question If you buy a Tesla or any EV with cash you have made from shorting Tesla common equity are you a good person or a bad person Clearly you are fighting the climate issues, but you are profiting of the decline in the equity price

Also, while I agree with you I do not like hearing criticism of Wall Street only when the equity goes down, unless you can show praise of wall street when it was up

Go Tesla

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Did you see the post with the average age of Tesla owners?

No, can you link it?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

We’re so far below any semblance of support it’s pretty scary.

I’m lowering any new entry point to nearly 20% below these levels. Unless we somehow get confidently over 225$ with volume. Which frankly I do not see happening anytime soon

Stop spreading fear.

Keep your fear to yourself.

 

[tivoboy]

~$180 is a strong support level that it only broke once in 2016.

In a purely nominal sense that is true but that’s not how I calculate support levels. Fortunately it’s still the way many traders and computers do.

 

[elasalle]

End of Quarter deliveries in EU beginning ..
92 Tesla's in Norway today
Tesla Registration Stats

 

[tivoboy]

Stop spreading fear.

Keep your fear to yourself.

It hasn’t been spreading fear for the last 15-20 months. It’s only really just been predicting the future.

 

[Vaamo]

No, can you link it?

it was few pages back, posted by RobStark, with a direct link

What Do We Know About Tesla Owners? | CleanTechnica

The Hedges Company has also released some fascinating stats on Tesla owners.

• The average household income of a Tesla Model X owner is $143,177 per year. A Tesla Model 3 owner household makes $128,140 per year.

• Compared to a median age of 38 for the US population, the median age of a Model X owner is 52 years old, and the median age of a Model S owner is 54. The median age of a Tesla Model 3 owner is 46 years old. Tesla has tapped a demographic which is willing to step well outside of their normal price range in order to get the Model 3, it seems.

• The Model X has a higher percentage of women owners. Women own 29% of Model X vehicles, and men own 71%. The Tesla Model S, a 4-door sedan, tends to have more male ownership than the Model X. Males own 77% of Model S vehicles, and women own 23%. Women only own 16% of Model 3’s, men own 84%.

• 88% of current Tesla Model S and X owners own their own home. That puts Tesla owners for these 2 models a full 21 to 24 percentage points higher for home ownership than the general population. Yet –only 56% of current Tesla Model 3 owners own their own home, which means that Tesla ownership is almost more important to this segment than is residential ownership.

_________________________________________________________________

Hope that isn't too much text quoted from article. Very good article with more information.

 

[neroden]

Tivoboy is pretty decent at short term stock price stuff... A rare talent. As a long termer, this informs me, but is not primary to my investment planning. If he is right, however, I will watch for his signalling a bottom because if TSLA is below $160 I will really want to sell other stocks to buy more.

 

[Silentk]

It hasn’t been spreading fear for the last 15-20 months. It’s only really just been predicting the future.

And unfortunately, quite accurate too

Just saw NIO is not doing well at all, down to 2.85

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I have way way way more fear that jaguar landrover will go bust by christmas (losing £3,600,000,000 a year right now) than any concerns about teslas future. JLR is a one trick pony (cars!) compared to energy + storage + autonomy + cars. Teslas sales grow dramatically each year, while ICE cars look an increasingly poor long term investment.
Eventually people will work out how many years left of ICE cars there are, and start depreciating those big ICE factories at a dramatically faster rate. Thats when traditional auto companies valuations are going to drop like a brick.

 

[Hock1]

Look, I do also feel bullish about the future of Tesla. However, a company does need to be profitable. And Tesla has proven that they cannot be profitable even with delivering the expected amount of Model 3's. At the same time, the incentives payments from various governments all over the world are ending this year or next year (USA, Germany, etc.), which will just put more pressure on Tesla.

The real question is: Can Tesla be profitable? And if yes, how profitable will they be? The stock market normally pays around a P/E multiple of 10-15 for carmakers and 15-30 for tech-companies. As Tesla is kind of a mixed company, I'd consider a P/E of 20 to be reasonable.

So if they achieve a yearly profit (EPS) of 10$ (based on the adjusted earnings of 2.90$ in Q4 2018), that suggest a share price of 200$. This however, does not take into account the current growth of the company. Market does currently interpret that Tesla cannot hold the current growth rate and therefore the valuation went down significantly (paired with the increased default risk).

So based on al information above and IF Tesla can really be sustainable profitable like in Q4 2018, I'd assume a share price of 250 - 350$ to be reasonable.

Your "analysis" was proof-positive that P/Es have very little meaning or value in analyzing a high-growth company.

 

[KSilver2000]

July can’t come soon enough to see where Tesla is at.
One more month of downward pressure.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Doubled down and added 35 more @182.50.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

July can’t come soon enough to see where Tesla is at.
One more month of downward pressure.

its possible the analysis of may sales figures might arrest the downward pressure though. there has been a long time with no counter to the 'demand is falling' bullshit. hard sales figures will change that.