Some of us have an encylopedic knowledge of the energy and transportation industries *and* the related markets, a detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla *and* its would-be competitors, and a working knowledge of finance, economics (both macro and micro), the mining industries, and so forth. We can make pretty accurate predictions in the longer term.
Some of us who might claim such encyclopedic knowledge of all those subject would be guilty of hubris or worse. Even the most capable and diligent human beings could not justifiably claim such knowledge.
That said, seriously diligent and capable people of normal intelligence are quite capable of making "...pretty accurate predictions..." in a fairly short term. Longer term there are too many variables for any human being to be "pretty accurate" except in an exceedingly narrow respect. Even the famously prescient people and most successful forecasters such as Leonardo da Vinci, Albert Einstein, Thomas Edison and Warren Buffet have had much less accuracy than would be needed to suggest anything other than huge success in some areas.
Honestly it seems almost impossible for anybody to think they know what will happen regarding BEV adoption in general, much less TSLA. All of us probably have deep conviction about what should happen if mankind can thrive. Deep conviction and highly convincing scientific evidence are obviously insufficient.
Personally, I spend most of my time assessing risks. Some people suggest I am quite good at that, and some invest according to my disclosed views. I have consistently been beating most securities market indices for quite a few years. Even so, I'll never suggest that my future results will reflect my past ones.
Thus, the last year has been my worst in two decades, partly because of my TSLA position, partly because of extraneous foreign exchange movements. Despite that I am adjusting very little, because I expect longer term positive results.
However, my own optimism is seriously constrained by my extreme pessimism regarding geopolitical disarray brought about by a quite small number of influential but incompetent government leaders in crucial parts of the world. The previous sentence is beyond my ability to judge, but the effects of that situation are far beyond anything I can conceive to predicting with even minimal accuracy. Therefore I expect to do well enough to survive financially, certainly avoiding personal catastrophe.
All of us investing in TSLA are quite exposed to the consequences of politically-controlled economic decisions. For my part I am quite convinced that Tesla is already making major decisions that will reduce these external negative consequences. GF-3, subsequent GF's and continuing innovation will serve us very well, I think. The primary constraint is certainly how long Tesla will need to decrease the present inordinate dependency on US sales and production.
Dealing with all the issues responsibly and competently still will not assure any reasonably accurate long term forecasts. Such will only reduce the consequences of errors.