Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dqd88]

The Wall St pattern is that they will have 'concerns' about the Model Y ramp.

So you think we'll see a big rise then another big dip this year?

 

[dqd88]

I really need to look into the Chinese charging infrastructure. From my experience with Beijing, most people live in high rises. Not exactly the perfect environment for electric cars. Only the uber wealthy have townhouses or single family homes.

My understanding is that chargers are more commonplace there than here (US). Since there are many EV companies there it would make sense. If Tesla has the adapters to use any charger then I would think the prevalence of any chargers would benefit Tesla. The entire EV ecosystem there seems to be more robust and only growing which hopefully will help Tesla.

 

[RedMS]

I’m sorry, but why are we even talking about this orange a**hole on the Tesla investors forum? @Mods.....please can we curtail this ASAP

Orange man bad!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

It must be a real quandary for the Trump-haters on this blog to reconcile their potential Trump-replacement to be fraternizing with Chanos. I am not a political person. Just an honest observation.

Then you should check out the market politics thread and see that many of us don't have an issue, since we don't like Biden either.

 

[Carl Raymond]

So you think we'll see a big rise then another big dip this year?

Absolutely. Unless there isn’t, in which case anybody who passes up buying this dip misses out.

 

[dqd88]

Do you folks see the current SP levels as a rare buying opportunity?

I’m not confident that we reached a bottom. I just think Tesla under $200 is borderline stupid. Go ahead and have a lower cost basis than Ron Baron. At these levels there is no medium-long term downside unless the company runs out of cash. Too many rich people that can keep this puppy afloat, especially with Elon being connected to SpaceX.

I don’t think we break $389 ever until we see someone like AAPL/GOOG take a 10-15% stake, or until autonomy shows more promise

So you think it's wise to buy on margin now? I haven't yet but if I run out of dry power I will be tempted. It's a tempting gamble.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Only the uber TN wealthy have townhouses or single family homes.

FTFY.

 

[LST]

Do you folks see the current SP levels as a rare buying opportunity?

So you think it's wise to buy on margin now? I haven't yet but if I run out of dry power I will be tempted. It's a tempting gamble.

I bought some more at 179.90, got triggered in the very first minutes, happy although not at the days low, but still. So: Yes, and NEVER EVER on margin.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hate to give any credits to Trump, but if it wasn’t for him Tesla probably would not be owning 100% of GF3. The Chinese government agreed to relaxing the rules in a rare moment of weakness when they and Trump were just starting their tug of war.

There's absolutely no "weakness" whatsoever in China's multi-year, multi-pronged strategic effort to own the future of EV manufacturing.

It's cold blooded imperialism you'd expect from a dictatorship mostly ruled by technocrats - versus the west that is mostly ruled by lawyer-politicians and populist con artists.

If there was a primary trigger it was probably:

• Awful levels of Beijing smog that was in danger of triggering civil unrest despite the government controlling media.
• China's #2 politician meeting Elon in person last year, probably to ascertain that Elon was genuine.

Trump's antics might at most have accelerated some of those strategic plans and lured in Tesla some more to seek an investment deal with China.

China could make a leap like Japan made in the 80s to move up the value chain - the EV transition is just the ~10% GDP shift in the world economy they were waiting for. "Made in Japan" turned from an unusual, exotic phrase into a seal of quality within a decade.

 

[dqd88]

Alternate interpretation: Panasonic's new jigs will ramp 2170 output late this year, in time to support initial Model Y production. Remember, on this same podcast he said building Model Y in Fremont will get them to market faster.

Are you short or long? From prior posts I had assumed you were short. Can't tell now

 

[LN1_Casey]

I’ve been catching a knife falling so hard my hands are bleeding.

I've been writing down a list of the stock prices at when I buy, and it's almost a line pointing straight down. The current stock prices have overtaken the bottom two recent purchases, so it's something? ;-)

I'm almost sad that the stock is recovering now, rather than after I had another paycheck or two to "stock up", haha. Still, upward momentum is always good.

 

[sundaymorning]

FYI

Tim Anderson on Twitter

God I hope this is true.

 

[Pras]

Aswath Damodaran on Twitter

I saw the NYU profs Tesla valuation model. Lots of holes in his valuation.

Just a few would be

- operating margin of 10% being borrowed from other Auto (ignore Tesla vertical integration). Just changing operating margin from 10% used to 20% would change his valuation (discounted to PV) from 190 to say ~450.

- Also he assumes 10 year out only $100 billion in revenue which I think ignores TE, Robotaxi/ride share and other opportunities like insurance.

Again, another AJ type use of false assumption, but w/ a bit more sophistication.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Holy *sugar*.

Demand secured.

Somebody needs to spell this out explicitly here, so here's a helpful tweet:

Ming Zhao‏ @mingcalls 4h4 hours ago

Follow-up: EVs to get a plate in Beijing is not done by lottery drawing. It is by queueing as each yr has quota (60k). Right now 420k applicants in queue, meaning already 2026 for new applicant. $tsla lease with a free plate is magical. @ValueAnalyst1 @vincent13031925​

Here's the situaltion for EVs in Beijing right now:

• max. 60K new licence plates issued per year
• current backlog (queue) is 420K applications
• that means a 7 yr wait for a new plate

Here's the deal new Tesla drivers get in Beijing right now:

• 0% interest on a 3-yr lease
• free EV plate with every lease (skip the queue)
  
• ICE cars can only drive on alternate days

Now I ask you, how is this not front page news on WSJ/Bloomberg/NYTimes/CNBC? Oh yeah, it doesn't fit their *sugar* story...

So, I wonder how many plate max that Tesla can get for Beijing? It sounds like they could have like 50% market share easily. That's over a month of LR production at Fremont just for Beijing. Of course the demand will only increase in 2020 when GF3/Shanghai starts producing SR+ vehicles, but these free plates will be "magic" for LR sales in Beijing.

Cheers!

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

 

[Sean Wagner]

FYI

Tim Anderson on Twitter

Interesting. Aside from the special considerations relevant to Beijing and China, recall the following:
Half Of World's Electric Cars Are In Just 25 Cities [chart worth looking at for a projection of Beijing demand]

 

[Singuy]

Somebody needs to spell this out explicitly here, so here's a helpful tweet:

Ming Zhao‏ @mingcalls 4h4 hours ago

Follow-up: EVs to get a plate in Beijing is not done by lottery drawing. It is by queueing as each yr has quota (60k). Right now 420k applicants in queue, meaning already 2026 for new applicant. $tsla lease with a free plate is magical. @ValueAnalyst1 @vincent13031925​

Here's the situaltion for EVs in Beijing right now:

• max. 60K new licence plates issued per year
• current backlog (queue) is 420K applications
• that means a 7 yr wait for a new plate

Here's the deal new Tesla drivers get in Beijing right now:

• 0% interest on a 3-yr lease
• free EV plate with every lease (skip the queue)
  
• ICE cars can only drive on alternate days

Now I ask you, how is this not front page news on WSJ/Bloomberg/NYTimes/CNBC? Oh yeah, it doesn't fit their *sugar* story...

So, I wonder how many plate max that Tesla can get for Beijing? It sounds like they could have like 50% market share easily. That'd be a whole month of SR+ production at Fremont just for Beijing. Of course the demand will only increase in 2020 when GF3/Shanghai starts producing SR+ vehicles.

Cheers!

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

My google translate is saying free license plate rental service...what the heck is that?

 

[Carl Raymond]

That'd be a whole month of SR+ production at Fremont just for Beijing.

Not sure I'm reading this right. Seems to suggest the free plate is for Long Range only.

 

[Remus]

Somebody needs to spell this out explicitly here, so here's a helpful tweet:

Ming Zhao‏ @mingcalls 4h4 hours ago

Follow-up: EVs to get a plate in Beijing is not done by lottery drawing. It is by queueing as each yr has quota (60k). Right now 420k applicants in queue, meaning already 2026 for new applicant. $tsla lease with a free plate is magical. @ValueAnalyst1 @vincent13031925​

Here's the situaltion for EVs in Beijing right now:

• max. 60K new licence plates issued per year
• current backlog (queue) is 420K applications
• that means a 7 yr wait for a new plate

Here's the deal new Tesla drivers get in Beijing right now:

• 0% interest on a 3-yr lease
• free EV plate with every lease (skip the queue)
  
• ICE cars can only drive on alternate days

Now I ask you, how is this not front page news on WSJ/Bloomberg/NYTimes/CNBC? Oh yeah, it doesn't fit their *sugar* story...

So, I wonder how many plate max that Tesla can get for Beijing? It sounds like they could have like 50% market share easily. That'd be a whole month of SR+ production at Fremont just for Beijing. Of course the demand will only increase in 2020 when GF3/Shanghai starts producing SR+ vehicles.

Cheers!

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

My question is where Tesla got those plates? And how many they have?

 

[Singuy]

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

There's no way FSD will be feasible in Beijing. The road is a cluster F with no one following any traffic laws. Lane markers are terrible and everyone is trying to cut each other off. Driving in Beijing is a dog eat dog world. 95% of you guys will not dare to drive in China, let alone let FSD do all the work. I only attempted to drive there once at night. No way I would touch those roads during the day.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So you think we'll see a big rise then another big dip this year?

I am authorized** to share this proprietary 2-yr SP prediction, created with our in-house heuristic wholistic NN processor: (with 7-degrees of separation from Kevin Bacon)

** Not an advice.

Cheers!