Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[graphix25]

After a really negative May and 2019 for Tesla, June has started on good note. A good time to consider if my 2022 bull forecast still hold water from January 2018. I think the average selling price for the model S/X is going to continue to go down from my $100k assumption. I suspect in the next couple of refreshes of the platform for these cars Tesla is going to make a step function down on pricing over time. This should drive higher unit sales which should offset each other so sticking with $10b annual for the large premium segment. I'm still confident on the 3/Y volume platform forecast with Fremont and China factory @ about 24k units a week. Pickup and Semi the "work platform" might be a bit aggressive but with a 2020 launch for Semi and 2021 launch for Pickup should give time to ramp up volume and marketshare. With the confirmation that Y is going to Fremont, it's logical that Semi/Pickup is going to be built in Nevada. These million mile work platforms are going to be driven by ROI and higher margins then the volume car segment so really excited about the platform. Wildcards for me continue to be mobility service and energy.

2022 Bull Case Revenue Forecast: 1/4/2018
Model S/X 100k Units @ 100k = $10B
Model 3/Y 1.2m Units @ 45k = $54B
Roadster 5k Units @ $200k = $1B
Pickup 300k Units @ $50k = $15B
Semi 100k Units @ $150k = $15B
Mobility Service >= $5B
Energy >= $10B

$110B Revenue ~ 16 Billion Operating Profit with 20 P/E puts us at $320b market cap or $1600 a share (200 million shares outstanding)

Tesla annual revenue for 2018 was $21.461B, a 82.51% increase from 2017. Tesla annual revenue for 2017 was $11.759B, a 67.98% increase from 2016. 2019 will continue to be challenging environment but with the 2020 china effect should put us back on track with 2021 and 2022 being the breakout years. I expect mild economic weakness as we enter 2020 as all the macro challenges and economic imbalances come back into balance.

Added to my position the recent weakness and now at 1,116 shares @ ~190 share basis. A big speculative bet on what could turn out to be a wonderfully profitable company.

 

[Tslynk67]

Agree with this....would rather Tesla had targeted a mainstream truck. Perhaps Elon was targeting a "halo" truck first, ie. similar to the roadster before he built the S?

I speculate that they will hold a big flashy event for the Blade Runner pickup, which will get an ambivalent reaction from everyone, but there'll be "one more thing" and the real Model P will be driven on-stage by Franz. The Model P will be typically Tesla, but relatively conservative, with some never-seen-before features and incredible specs. The share price will explode.

I mean they now they've wanted to make a pickup for years now, does it really take so long to design it and build a working prototype?

You heard it here first folks!

 

[mrmage]

Unless Tesla is okay with people getting hurt from running over bicyclists or getting into fender benders all the time..I seriously doubt a Tesla car will even move in the middle of Beijing traffic. Bicyclists are everywhere, weaving in between cars. We had people who hit our car with their bikes while we try to navigate the cluster F of whatever that was at 2 miles/hr. And the kicker is, they start yelling at you when they hit your car..blaming you for not honking...so that's what you hear in traffic btw..honking after honking after honking.

You really have to witness how everything works before making the call that NN will one day get it. It's not going to unless every car is on the same NN obeying some kind of coherent driving plan.

Ever been to magic kingdom? Imagine a Tesla driving down main street at the Magic Kingdom right after a parade. That's Beijing traffic.

To be fair, it’s nuts in most countries in SE Asia, and agreed you need to see it to understand. Crossing the road seemed insane in Ho Chi Minh. You just assume the cars, cycles, and mopeds will dodge you, because you certainly can’t find a safe path yourself.

It’s not so bad after you get used to it. Drivers there are much more alert than in western countries.

 

[SPadival]

Somebody needs to spell this out explicitly here, so here's a helpful tweet:

Ming Zhao‏ @mingcalls 4h4 hours ago

Follow-up: EVs to get a plate in Beijing is not done by lottery drawing. It is by queueing as each yr has quota (60k). Right now 420k applicants in queue, meaning already 2026 for new applicant. $tsla lease with a free plate is magical. @ValueAnalyst1 @vincent13031925​

Here's the situaltion for EVs in Beijing right now:

• max. 60K new licence plates issued per year
• current backlog (queue) is 420K applications
• that means a 7 yr wait for a new plate

Here's the deal new Tesla drivers get in Beijing right now:

• 0% interest on a 3-yr lease
• free EV plate with every lease (skip the queue)
  
• ICE cars can only drive on alternate days

Now I ask you, how is this not front page news on WSJ/Bloomberg/NYTimes/CNBC? Oh yeah, it doesn't fit their *sugar* story...

So, I wonder how many plate max that Tesla can get for Beijing? It sounds like they could have like 50% market share easily. That's over a month of LR production at Fremont just for Beijing. Of course the demand will only increase in 2020 when GF3/Shanghai starts producing SR+ vehicles, but these free plates will be "magic" for LR sales in Beijing.

Cheers!

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

Global Times (English language site under People’s Daily) tried to FUDify this news 17 hours ago.

Global Times on Twitter

Tesla’s new discount policy in China concerning license plate renting draws concerns over legality on social media. Some netizens suggest Chinese transport authorities could investigate this offer to retaliate US crackdown on China’s tech rise. bit.ly/2Z8pjmt

Nice to see that China has their version of twitter trolls who rush to the SEC at the drop of a hat /sarc

 

[Tslynk67]

Holidays may affect production, will not affect deliveries by much. I could deliver 200 in a week (40 per day), or if Monday is a holiday, I could still do 200 in a week (50 per day). The delivery will be determined by how many got shipped to Europe.

Norway delivered 583 one day in the last quarter, did they not?

So the current slow pace there (60-90 per day) indicated lack of cars, nothing to do with holidays or capability.

Ad regards unwinding the wave and sending boats out now - I don't think that makes sense, but what they can do is at least get some ships moving first weeks of July, which will already help - wasn't many went out early in April if I remember well.

In any case, as others have mentioned, likely they'll prioritise USA with the tax credit halving on July 1st.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Somebody needs to spell this out explicitly here, so here's a helpful tweet:

Ming Zhao‏ @mingcalls 4h4 hours ago

Follow-up: EVs to get a plate in Beijing is not done by lottery drawing. It is by queueing as each yr has quota (60k). Right now 420k applicants in queue, meaning already 2026 for new applicant. $tsla lease with a free plate is magical. @ValueAnalyst1 @vincent13031925​

Here's the situaltion for EVs in Beijing right now:

• max. 60K new licence plates issued per year
• current backlog (queue) is 420K applications
• that means a 7 yr wait for a new plate

Here's the deal new Tesla drivers get in Beijing right now:

• 0% interest on a 3-yr lease
• free EV plate with every lease (skip the queue)
  
• ICE cars can only drive on alternate days

Now I ask you, how is this not front page news on WSJ/Bloomberg/NYTimes/CNBC? Oh yeah, it doesn't fit their *sugar* story...

So, I wonder how many plate max that Tesla can get for Beijing? It sounds like they could have like 50% market share easily. That's over a month of LR production at Fremont just for Beijing. Of course the demand will only increase in 2020 when GF3/Shanghai starts producing SR+ vehicles, but these free plates will be "magic" for LR sales in Beijing.

Cheers!

P.S. Bet that Beijing is one of the 1st jursidictions to approve TN Robotaxis? There's a 10x multiplier to the value of an FSD car versus a POV that sits unused for 95% of the time.

If there has been a move to "pump mode" then this story might get more traction in the media than it would have done in the last few months.

 

[Tslynk67]

Denmark appears to be the most expensive. There are however multiple energy companies here, that provide charging subscriptions that allows unlimited charging and caps the price at about 100$ per month. This includes both home charging and charging at public charging stations.
We are averaging about 5cents per mile for electricity cost over 60000 miles in a MX.

Totally different experience as a visitor to Denmark, the cost of the E-On and Clever charging is astronomical - I used to sue E-On as id was 99DKr for a one-off charge, but they raised that to 249DKr a couple of years ago and Clever is like €1 per kWh = crazy.

So I either Supercharge or use the summerhouse, which is also expensive at 2.5DKr per kWt, but much cheaper than the public charging.

 

[Singer3000]

Yeah this is big...it's like if the good old USA reinstated the $7500 incentive....no it is bigger than that.
Demand problem....ha.... Tesla defiantly has a demand problem....many many many Chinese are going to demand a Tesla.

Think we need to be careful of over reacting to this. The same Twitter thread says it’s capped at 60,000 plates and is for LR only. So that would be a bit more than 1000 units per week from Fremont for the Beijing market if it’s 60k per year and not a one off.

Which is certainly excellent news if you thought Tesla had a demand problem but is not Big Bang transformational. Unless you can point to a source that says otherwise, seems also that the zero percent leasing deal is direct leasing from Tesla so there’s a margin impact too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

The Model P will be typically Tesla, but relatively conservative, with some never-seen-before features and incredible specs. The share price will explode.

Telsa isn't going to build any pickups before it has more cell capacity. That's not this year. Next year will be Model Y's increment.

For the share price to explode, they'd need to drive a never-seen-before Maxwell bty line onto that stage.

It'll come when its time, but not that time is not this year. Be patient, and you shall be rewarded mightily.

Cheers!

P.S.
Jun. 5, 4:50 a.m. EDT
Pre-market 196.76 +3.16 (1.63%)

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Given that everyone in the vietnam video seems to be wearing a face mask, I think I'd rather be in a tesla robotaxi with bioweapon defense mode, even if it took me twice as long to get to work due to conservative driving. Also safest car in the world. alive+lungs ok > got there quicker.

 

[K_Dizzle]

I know there is a lot of AJ hate going on here right now, but I’ve seen some evidence of MS buying the dip heavily along with the 180 Jonas himself has done. From the interaction Elon and AJ had on the last call I think it’s possible this squeeze was conspired in advance.

Fire away

 

[SPadival]

I know there is a lot of AJ hate going on here right now, but I’ve seen some evidence of MS buying the dip heavily along with the 180 Jonas himself has done. From the interaction Elon and AJ had on the last call I think it’s possible this squeeze was conspired in advance.

Fire away

It is manipulation either way and should be investigated. Unlike the shorts, we don’t run to the SEC only when the SP is going in the opposite direction.

 

[elasalle]

I know there is a lot of AJ hate going on here right now, but I’ve seen some evidence of MS buying the dip heavily along with the 180 Jonas himself has done. From the interaction Elon and AJ had on the last call I think it’s possible this squeeze was conspired in advance.

Fire away

Let's not give this Conniving Mustard - Credit, we should be questioning Credibility of so called Analyst who has mis-lead public as well as his private clients who must have had like 250K investment minimum with MS.

 

[Tslynk67]

One of the biggest daily green candles of the entire year, and with higher volume than a lot of other big daily green candles.

1. Jan. 7th: +13.24 on 7.5M shares.
2. Feb. 27th: +12.96 on 11.1M shares.
3. Today: +12.50 on 13.7M shares.
4. May 3rd: +11.17 on 23.7M shares.

Huh? Up 14.63 not 12.50

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla will crush them...

Well crushing isn't really Tesla's core business, maybe they could subcontract it to GM, they've the facilities, I believe...

 

[Todd Burch]

Yes but it's counter productive to their mission.

1 roaders = 4 SR+. It should be a halo product that can be rare, but shouldn't be mass produced per Tesla's mission.

Roadster probably gets driven about 3000-5000 miles a year while 4 SR+ gets driven 50k miles/year.
So on paper, 4 SR+ can offset 10x more carbon going to the air than 1 roadster.

Depends on how much money it makes them. If they make a lot of profit to fund Superchargers, etc. then it contributes greatly toward the mission.

 

[K_Dizzle]

It is manipulation either way and should be investigated. Unlike the shorts, we don’t run to the SEC only when the SP is going in the opposite direction.

The manipulation is not going away either way. I doubt anyone here can do anything about it a however a huge drawdown followed by a run up to ATH happening twice make others critical. I doubt they’ll try it a third time.

Please note. Option_Sniper on Twitter

 

[sunny-value]

Do you have any concrete reasons to believe that? (Despite many thinking lidar is necessary) Do you watch the recent videos on autopilot on youtube? Progress is really impressive. I like for example the channel Tesla Driver.



Good point. When did Elon say this? I just started watching Tesla more closely again after it was already very clear that the quarter wasn't going to be good.


Edit: Does anyone here have any real concerns and critical substantial points (beyond fud, sentiment and market dynamics) what could be or go wrong? I really want to tripple check before i add more.

In making any investment decision I would treat all FSD as icing and invest assuming it is banned from the world forever. It's all about volumes, margin (which depends on battery cost curve) and cash management until the combination of those two lead to profitability.

The bear case is built on the product of volume and margin always or almost always remaining negative. Clearly after 15 years this is unsustainable and a near-term path to generally positive cash flow (with exceptions for investments to build new facilities) has to emerge in the near term for the SP to rally.

Market sentiment has been terrible which is great from a long-term buy and hold perspective. What is unfortunate is that you have to make this decision without any visibility into those volumes and margins 1, 2, 3 and 4 quarters out. I guess this is why investing involves risk, and in the case of a new product and relatively new company more about faith/trust. The odds are definitely better now of making money than when the SP was 350. That is all we can say for sure.

 

[Tslynk67]

My google translate is saying free license plate rental service...what the heck is that?

It's a three-year lease at 0%, funded by the Beijing authorities.

 

[Tslynk67]

Are you short or long? From prior posts I had assumed you were short. Can't tell now

Was short, now long, would make sense, no? In fact outside of our idealistic bubble here, it's the best way to make money from $TSLA while it's so volatile.

Not an advice.