Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Boomer19]

If you are going to quote me you ought to be able to whistle the tune

things went down we didn’t understand but i guess in time we will

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

How is this FUD? He’s a bull. And he’s right. ASP of S/X is lower than last year and so are deliveries. Model 3 is just too good

Because the WHOLE world was saying (and writing) over the last month that there is no demand for Tesla cars. Then when the deliveries seem to contradict that, the narrative changes and it's, "well they're selling cars, just not the right ones."

I'm done with all these analysts and writers anyway. Last week, they were all basically getting ready to throw the last shovel of dirt on Tesla's grave - now suddenly, we're starting to see positive stories again. So, let me guess, Tesla righted the ship in 5 days. Yea right!

Tesla on Pace for Best 3-Day Run Since October on Reports of Solid Q2 Deliveries

Listen, all of the analysts were stunned by the poor 1st quarter results (as we all were too). That's enough proof for me that they are just guessing like we are. In fact, they aren't really guessing - they are just going along with the crowd out of fear of being wrong alone (that or it's one big coordinated manipulation). Truth is, deliveries could be 70k this quarter, or they could be 100k. Heck, I'm sure if EM had to guess right now, even his guess would have a 10 to 15k range.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Yes I have read it and it is very disturbing. What I find more disturbing is that most of people don't care. I showed it to my siblings and they just laugh and make jokes, asking what I do about it. I point out that I do drive electric, cut down on meat and stop flying. That I live in a place where the vast majority of electricity is generated from and invest in companies developing alternative energy sources. They just laugh and say: Good on you, now let me drive my ICE"

I asked: "why don't you care that you and your children will be dead if you don't take action?" They answer they don't know and all they know is that they plan a nice flying trip for a couple of days to resort to pick up some sunshine and say the government or someone else must do it. They are just not bothered by it.

This all really saddens me.

I feel the same way, which is why I am so obsessive about TSLA. I bang on about them on twitter a lot, and write the odd blog post to spread the word to my readers (game devs and gamers) about how awesome they are. TBH I don't *need* to make any money from TSLA I could even lose all my existing TSLA investments and likely retire ok, but I have become increasingly committed to defending the company *as an environmental goal in itself*.

When the stock drops 50% and I don't sell, sure I lose money, but I see it as my duty as an environmentalist to stand by the company in bad times as well as good. I do NOT want to let this company fail, even if it costs me a lot of money. Hell, if I could magically teleport to fremont each evening and do a free hours labour every day to help the cause I would do so without a second thought and id be smiling all the time.

So try thinking about your investment in the company as a positive step, a line-in-the-sand that you defend for the cause of halting climate change (or at least slowing it). This is why I get so angry at the FUD. I don't think CNBC are just bad people, or corrupt, or unethical when they write FUD, they are *directly* preventing progress on fighting climate change. TBH, I see those people as indirect mass-killers. They dont stand over a bloody corpse, but they help do the dirty work that will lead to absolute devastation all over the world.

So when friends mock me or tell me I'm mad to keep holding tsla, or investing more, I see them as mad to even question it. Its literally a matter of life and death in my head. I'd sell *any other* stock I own before I would ever consider selling tesla. In this for the long, long haul, and for the best possible reasons.

 

[SPadival]

So when friends mock me or tell me I'm mad to keep holding tsla, or investing more, I see them as mad to even question it. Its literally a matter of life and death in my head. I'd sell *any other* stock I own before I would ever consider selling tesla. In this for the long, long haul, and for the best possible reasons.

Don't worry. Your kids and grand kids will thank and honour you.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Thanks for the info. I haven’t had a chance to listen to that interview yet. How disappointing nobody even made a pretend effort.

Very much worth listening to not only for the range of subjects covered but the tone. I was almost dozing off in the second half, and come to think of it, it's quite welcome when Elon feels a smidgeon debonaire despite his work and decision load.

One "infon" I'm not so happy about is the influence his projections for autonomy are already having on interior design. It may be a niggle but then again the S & X are still important, high margin cars, and I think especially the latter should be doing better [and may need a nosejob?].

Conversely, he encouraged the Tesla design team to pencil a pickup they would "love" in lieu of an ev variant of existing designs. Always pushing and prodding in support of a clear goal.

All the sounds pertaining to the Y are encouraging too - once again, he also mentions how the car has a bigger interior than many expect. The roofline's smooth arc hides its height.

And now, for something completely different.

Seeing how the FCA merger with Renault has mercyfully just been called off, I could actually see FCA licensing Tesla's EV pickup tech. This would really be complementary and further the mission.

 

[WarpedOne]

Would it be possible for you Slovenians to buy a used M3 from another EU country, or non EU country (as in Switzerland) ?

Yes, used / second hand is no problem.
Except that in this route one foregoes 7500 EUR subvention and a very generous loan that our country offers for buying a new EV.

 

[Mike Smith]

Exclusive: India to order taxi aggregators like Uber, Ola to go electric - Reuters

 

[Driver Dave]

Pretty ballsy to mention their own scandal in the ad.

Knowing VW, that "electric" microbus probably has a gas engine powering it.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Knowing VW, that "electric" microbus probably has a gas engine powering it.

Pft; more like a diesel one.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Very much worth listening to not only for the range of subjects covered but the tone. I was almost dozing off in the second half, and come to think of it, it's quite welcome when Elon feels a smidgeon debonaire despite his work and decision load.

One "infon" I'm not so happy about is the influence his projections for autonomy are already having on interior design. It may be a niggle but then again the S & X are still important, high margin cars, and I think especially the latter should be doing better [and may need a nosejob?].

Conversely, he encouraged the Tesla design team to pencil a pickup they would "love" in lieu of an ev variant of existing designs. Always pushing and prodding in support of a clear goal.

All the sounds pertaining to the Y are encouraging too - once again, he also mentions how the car has a bigger interior than many expect. The roofline's smooth arc hides its height.

And now, for something completely different.

Seeing how the FCA merger with Renault has mercyfully just been called off, I could actually see FCA licensing Tesla's EV pickup tech. This would really be complementary and further the mission.

It WAS a fun interview to listen to, just to hear Musk's tone. I loved the opening where he apologized that he had so much in his head he had to pause and clear things in order to do the interview.

Regarding FCA, I think Tesla really needs to think strategically about what to do with/about them. It looks like their last lifeline was cut, and their future looks very bleak - In the EU, no partners or mergers and no meaningful in-house progress on ZEVs in the face of ever-increasing emissions penalties. Tesla can continue to bleed them for a good chunk of their remaining profits by pooling for years, but is that the best answer? Do they have anything of value that Tesla could acquire in exchange for long-term pooling (distribution centers/infrastructure, sites for Giga Europe, service center locations)?

 

[UncaNed]

I feel the same way, which is why I am so obsessive about TSLA. I bang on about them on twitter a lot, and write the odd blog post to spread the word to my readers (game devs and gamers) about how awesome they are. TBH I don't *need* to make any money from TSLA I could even lose all my existing TSLA investments and likely retire ok, but I have become increasingly committed to defending the company *as an environmental goal in itself*.

When the stock drops 50% and I don't sell, sure I lose money, but I see it as my duty as an environmentalist to stand by the company in bad times as well as good. I do NOT want to let this company fail, even if it costs me a lot of money. Hell, if I could magically teleport to fremont each evening and do a free hours labour every day to help the cause I would do so without a second thought and id be smiling all the time.

So try thinking about your investment in the company as a positive step, a line-in-the-sand that you defend for the cause of halting climate change (or at least slowing it). This is why I get so angry at the FUD. I don't think CNBC are just bad people, or corrupt, or unethical when they write FUD, they are *directly* preventing progress on fighting climate change. TBH, I see those people as indirect mass-killers. They dont stand over a bloody corpse, but they help do the dirty work that will lead to absolute devastation all over the world.

So when friends mock me or tell me I'm mad to keep holding tsla, or investing more, I see them as mad to even question it. Its literally a matter of life and death in my head. I'd sell *any other* stock I own before I would ever consider selling tesla. In this for the long, long haul, and for the best possible reasons.

"When the stock drops 50% and I don't sell, sure I lose money,"
What did you mean by that? You'd only lose money if you DID sell.

 

[Sean Wagner]

Regarding FCA, I think Tesla really needs to think strategically about what to do with/about them. ...

Not sure their European locations jive with Elon's publicly stated preferences.
See Our Plants | FCA Group

 

[LST]

Yes, used / second hand is no problem.
Except that in this route one foregoes 7500 EUR subvention and a very generous loan that our country offers for buying a new EV.

I understand your frustration / anger. Hope time will fix this, ...soon. The car is worth the wait..

 

[BoerumHill]

"When the stock drops 50% and I don't sell, sure I lose money,"
What did you mean by that? You'd only lose money if you DID sell.

UncaNed may answer for himself, but it seems clear to me he merely mixed up his tense or made a typo. S/B “sure I(’ve) lost money” [by not selling at or near the top, e.g., rode it all the way to the bottom.]

 

[LST]

"When the stock drops 50% and I don't sell, sure I lose money,"
What did you mean by that? You'd only lose money if you DID sell.

I have also the feeling to have lost opportunities by staying stubbornly (and convinced) in TSLA long only. But hindsight is always 20/20. No one ever knows when the market will finally see the real value of this incredible growth stock, and the SP will skyrocket. This will go fast or gradually and slow, but in any case, the risk of missing the bus let me just being long and buying the dips. How I felt smug at adding at 249 something... go figure. In the end I hope it doesn't matter when my grand-grand childern will be able to inherit a small fortune..
go long or go home ; )

 

[elasalle]

Both LL and Grant have links to Thanos.

So likely agents to destroy IronMan

 

[pdq]

Yes, PDQ, Investors close to me work spreadsheets containing the changing European emissions standards, year over year, estimate the average emissions for various European manufacturers, estimate volume of EVs to successfully sell by those manufacturers, and then derive likely shortfalls of EV credits per manufacturer per year. Hint: the numbers are enormous.

A question for you, now. Why do you address us longs as some type of country bumpkins who don't do research? Does such an image enhance your goals for the posts you place here?

Papafox: I didn't say anyone was a country bumpkin -- those are your words. I said that a prudent investor considers all possibilities.

You put yourself forward as an extremely advanced and technically astute analyst, so I'm relatively sure that you would agree with my statement, as unforeseen things do happen. I've been a licensed broker with 40+ years experience in the wealth management industry, so I've seen many things happen to many companies over the decades. Things don't always go as planned which can be good for a company or not (ex: remember when FL got hit by a string of hurricanes and sales at Home Depot and Lowes skyrocketed?). Things are unpredictable, and a prudent investor considers all possibilities.

 

[Maitri982]

Yeah. I haven't figured out what to do (other than remove fossil fuels from my personal life, divest from fossil fuels, invest in Tesla, and vote, campaign, and contribute appropriately) given the sheer number of deranged idiots intent on making the problem worse.

I'm located in an area which is probably going to survive longer than average as civilizations around the world collapse (we are not coastal, have ample fresh water even after global warming, will be able to produce our own food supply, not subject to desert heat stress either) but once the dominoes start falling, it's hard to keep anything going.

Climate change could pose ‘existential threat’ to humanity by 2050, advocates say

It's all good till political structures break down and people start coming to where you are because it's "better" there.

Have some nice solar panels producing electric and a nice garden and water well? May need to have armed guards around then 24/7.

Hate to be dystopian cause that's not the way my mind works, but I don't see it as a stretch either.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Papafox: I didn't say anyone was a country bumpkin -- those are your words. I said that a prudent investor considers all possibilities.

You put yourself forward as an extremely advanced and technically astute analyst, so I'm relatively sure that you would agree with my statement, as unforeseen things do happen. I've been a licensed broker with 40+ years experience in the wealth management industry, so I've seen many things happen to many companies over the decades. Things don't always go as planned which can be good for a company or not (ex: remember when FL got hit by a string of hurricanes and sales at Home Depot and Lowes skyrocketed?). Things are unpredictable, and a prudent investor considers all possibilities.

Considering all possibilities is way too simple.

TSLA could skyrocket to $6000 or drop dead to $0, or any number in between.

I mean, by your logic (with hurricane as an example, seriously?), this is literally considering all possible outcome, but it's actually saying nothing.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Papafox: I didn't say anyone was a country bumpkin -- those are your words. I said that a prudent investor considers all possibilities.

You put yourself forward as an extremely advanced and technically astute analyst, so I'm relatively sure that you would agree with my statement, as unforeseen things do happen. I've been a licensed broker with 40+ years experience in the wealth management industry, so I've seen many things happen to many companies over the decades. Things don't always go as planned which can be good for a company or not (ex: remember when FL got hit by a string of hurricanes and sales at Home Depot and Lowes skyrocketed?). Things are unpredictable, and a prudent investor considers all possibilities.

No one considers ALL possibilities. That has no meaning. To add value you have to do some kind of probabilistic risk assessment on a finite number of potential scenarios, quantitatively compare likelihoods and act accordingly.

A scenario where FCA begins selling significant numbers of EVs worldwide in 12 to 18 months is one that can be dismissed by inspection (“not possible").