Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dqd88]

Respectfully, I disagree.
My Apple and Windows computers, nor any of my other technology items (ie. iPhone, Pixel, iPad, webcams, TV, server, etc) that receive OTA software updates for making the UI and UX better do not appreciate in price. In fact, the very opposite.
To think Tesla cars will really appreciate in price over time as Musk says is silly. Although, my insurer would likely love for that to happen.
If that really is true, it would be in best interest of everyone to buy Tesla cars and keep it in the garage instead of being concerned with TSLA. It would benefit Tesla directly as well.

I'm not 100% privy to how it will appreciate, but if I'm understanding Elon's plan correctly, once the robotaxi's are a thing, the profit on each robotaxi will be high. The demand for autonomy-equipped cars will be greater than supply. Hence they will go up in value. It does make sense if you think about it. Sounds like you don't agree with Elon's math. Go back and watch the Autonomy Day presentation. The profit margin on an autonomous rideshare will be much higher than on an Uber obviously because the cost of the driver is eliminated. I'm guessing you think FSD will never happen, is just a sci-fi project.
If I see material progress towards FSD then I will consider buying up a small fleet of Model 3s. I'm sure many people will.
Most people aren't capable of visualizing progress on an exponential curve; I imagine that is a limitation of yours, no offense. You're probably good at certain types of thinking; pragmatic; my tendency is to think of high level trends and to think abstractly, which has its own pitfalls.

 

[glen thomson]

if tesla stock continues to rise i really recommend watching this youtube channel

over the coming months
hes short 46% of his money.

 

[RobStark]

To maximize the psychological superiority of EV, tesla should raise the roaster 2 price at least $3000 dollars every month once it's sold out. It is a limited production anyway, why not make it an appreciating asset.

How can you raise the price on something you no longer have for sale?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Respectfully, I disagree.
My Apple and Windows computers, nor any of my other technology items (ie. iPhone, Pixel, iPad, webcams, TV, server, etc) that receive OTA software updates for making the UI and UX better do not appreciate in price. In fact, the very opposite.
To think Tesla cars will really appreciate in price over time as Musk says is silly. Although, my insurer would likely love for that to happen.
If that really is true, it would be in best interest of everyone to buy Tesla cars and keep it in the garage instead of being concerned with TSLA. It would benefit Tesla directly as well.

To issue a counter-point: video game consoles often spike in price shortly after release until the supply catches up with demand. A similar situation happened not long ago with discrete GPU cards, with cards often going for 2x MSRP or more due to crypto miners buying up all the supply. It’s rare, but does happen with tech items when demand significantly outstrips supply.

As I remember, it also happened with some early Model 3’s before production scaled.

 

[dqd88]

Compared to where the S/X operate in? I think its pretty much everywhere now, but some RHD countries abroad like Australia, NZ, UK, etc can only get SR+ and Performance.

Compared to S/X markets, or where Tesla is not in yet at all (that is on deck; ie- I know they are not in many places but where is next).

 

[EVNow]

To think Tesla cars will really appreciate in price over time as Musk says is silly.

Its like NYC taxi medallion - $225k. Basically if Tesla actually achieves FSD anytime in the near future, the cars that can do FSD will be in high demand because while operating as robotaxis they can make a lot of money (>$75k per year).

 

[Dig deeper]

Robinhood users are still buying.
View attachment 416663

Looking at this Robinhood data, I always wondered why Tesla has decided not to stock split. I mean, i guess at this point it doesn't really make sense (at $350 i think it would, although its never really there for long) with the SP being at its current level. However, they could potentially attract a different group of investors. Tesla, being a story stock, would *I THINK* attract millennial types (not in disparaging terms) to invest if it were more accessible on a per share basis. This drop has *IN PART* shown that.

Younger people seem to care more about the environment but dont have the discretionary income to invest $300, they do however have LONG TIME HORIZONS and are exactly the type of people that i imagine Tesla wants buying its stock.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

Its like NYC taxi medallion - $225k. Basically if Tesla actually achieves FSD anytime in the near future, the cars that can do FSD will be in high demand because while operating as robotaxis they can make a lot of money (>$75k per year).

Do you mean the NYC taxi medallions that used to sell for more than $1 million until Uber and Lyft came along?

https://nypost.com/2019/02/20/counc...-taxi-drivers-after-medallion-prices-plummet/

 

[SO16]

Do you mean the NYC taxi medallions that used to sell for more than $1 million until Uber and Lyft came along?

https://nypost.com/2019/02/20/counc...-taxi-drivers-after-medallion-prices-plummet/

Uber and Lyft’s days may be numbered if FSD becomes a reality. A huge if. But exciting to see what happens.

 

[kbM3]

Do you mean the NYC taxi medallions that used to sell for more than $1 million until Uber and Lyft came along?

https://nypost.com/2019/02/20/counc...-taxi-drivers-after-medallion-prices-plummet/

And the same thing could happen for a Model 3, when there’s competition. The fair market value might drop from $250k to $125k.

 

[EVNow]

Do you mean the NYC taxi medallions that used to sell for more than $1 million until Uber and Lyft came along?

https://nypost.com/2019/02/20/counc...-taxi-drivers-after-medallion-prices-plummet/

Yes, when there is enough supply, profits will always reduce to normal rates. But, in the meantime ...

 

[Foghat]

Respectfully, I disagree.
My Apple and Windows computers, nor any of my other technology items (ie. iPhone, Pixel, iPad, webcams, TV, server, etc) that receive OTA software updates for making the UI and UX better do not appreciate in price. In fact, the very opposite.
To think Tesla cars will really appreciate in price over time as Musk says is silly. Although, my insurer would likely love for that to happen.
If that really is true, it would be in best interest of everyone to buy Tesla cars and keep it in the garage instead of being concerned with TSLA. It would benefit Tesla directly as well.

I think Elon is saying that with autonomous driving capability, which would be an OTA update, will allow owners to add their vehicle to the Tesla rideshare network and make money. If potentially thousands of dollars of year of earned income, and you paid 39k-65k for the car, then yes, the vehicle may be more valuable when this network is “turned on.”

When the Tesla network is “turned on” owners of Tesla’s with autonomous capabilities could also sell their vehicles at market value based on income earning potential. So if a buyer in 2020-21 see 10 years of 20k/year for your 2018 vehicle, how much could you sell your 3 year old car for? Or how much do you think you could get as a return-on-investment if you kept it and utilized the Tesla network?

I think this is what Elon means by appreciating asset. The Tesla you buy today is going to be worth a lot more to someone in a couple years time.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

There's definitely going to be more sales if it's $40,000 CAD and not $40,000 USD. We have to wait a while for our currency to be at parity. Seattle pay less income tax and have higher salary. They can save more money per month than us.

Except if you wait a few years for our currency to be at par, you’ll have spent about the same amount in gas and oil changes. And your stuck in an ICE.....Makes sense to buy now.

 

[Bunky]

Feels like we have weathered the worst of this FUD driven negative sentiment cycle. Other auto-makers are starting to struggle and governmental policies are trending towards incentivizing EV adoption. At the same time, deliveries are chugging along to new owners, most or all of which will never revert to ICE and will likely compound interest in the car by each raving about it to their respective social circles. The toothpaste doesn’t go back in the tube and the lifetime value of a Tesla customer is insane. I caught someone filming me as I drove past in my M3 the other day. Long story short - bullish af

 

[mongo]

I'm imagining a guy with one phone/device that scans the VINs of each of the Teslas in a huge rectangle with his professional version of the Tesla App, and then pressing the 'forward' button to mass-command all the Teslas to move forward on the boat.... that would be amazing.

Seems like excessive human involvement since each car already has GPS. A central server can sort and command them automatically. Drive them right to the loading point so the human loaders can focus on internal positioning.

And the same thing could happen for a Model 3, when there’s competition. The fair market value might drop from $250k to $125k.

That would require cutting the profit margin in half, either by reducing ride cost even more or doubling the available cars. A taxi only service can't handle as low a margin as an average person letting their car do it for extra cash. Tesla would still have an advantage.

 

[Krugerrand]

if tesla stock continues to rise i really recommend watching this youtube channel

over the coming months
hes short 46% of his money.

I feel compelled to pick my nose. Subliminal messaging maybe?

All good. He’s on my ‘to be blown up with my mind’ list when the Gods deem me worthy of such a super power. Until then...*rummages through the voodoo drawer*

 

[EVNow]

Long story short - bullish af

No pun intended, I guess.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

It would be noticed, sure, but it's nothing like the Penn Central bankruptcy. Threatening *liquidation and shutdown of operations* -- the potential destruction of the entire freight & passenger railroad network from DC to Chicago to Maine. That would have devastated the US economy quite spectacularly -- about a quarter of the employees of all firms in the NEC wouldn't have been able to get to work, and a substantial percentage of factories would have promptly died due to inability to ship raw materials or product. Including car companies.

And yet, here we still are. Thank goodness for our long-standing tradition of keeping profits private, but making losses public.

 

[Mateo7]

if tesla stock continues to rise i really recommend watching this youtube channel

over the coming months
hes short 46% of his money.

The nose thing? That's called excessive cocaine usage.

I don't often get personal about someone's investment choices, but I'd be quite happy to see this individual eventually go bankrupt and live out his days in his parent's spare room.

 

[BornToFly]

Talking to my delivery specialist today, it sounds like demand and deliveries are very strong in the US. (Tesla did mess up my order, and my VIN matching pretty badly. I went to the store to see what they can do since I was supposed to get a P100DL delivered and paid for it, only to find that the VIN had the wrong interior. We talked about getting a "loaner" vehicle until a car arrived for me, but one of the challenges for that plan is that they don't have vehicles on the lot). He said they get loaded on the trucks in California, and by the time they get to Utah, they are all sold. Salt Lake City is the only store for hundreds of miles, but I can tell you that the number of cars being delivered through that location every week is incredible.

P.S. - If there is interest in my story, I can tell you that they had recently received a test drive vehicle with my specifications. It only has 22 miles and based on the energy graph was driven 3 times. They are going to match the car to me and I can pick it up tomorrow. It doesn't seem worth waiting another week or two to get a car that was driven 3 fewer times....