Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Ratanpara]

The Car Industry Is Under Siege

I am sure this article is posted previously, but chinese market is huge 24 Millions unit a year, that is huge, GF3 going up at right time.

 

[M3Rider]

P.S. - If there is interest in my story, I can tell you that they had recently received a test drive vehicle with my specifications. It only has 22 miles and based on the energy graph was driven 3 times. They are going to match the car to me and I can pick it up tomorrow. It doesn't seem worth waiting another week or two to get a car that was driven 3 fewer times....

They have 50 miles on the contract, so I think anything less is fair / still new.

 

[Big Blue 1011]

And the same thing could happen for a Model 3, when there’s competition. The fair market value might drop from $250k to $125k.

Tesla’s product line is first in class and should be reason enough to have faith in the future of the company and the TSLA stock. I fear for those who would invest based upon speculation that the vehicles will actually appreciate in value based on FSD. For an apples to apples comparison, you would have to separate the FSD software from the car itself. It is the taxi medallions that increase in value, not the taxi cabs. And that was for one reason only —- regulated scarcity. Cities limited the number of medallions issued, so you had to own or rent a medallion to legally operate a taxi. Unless Tesla does the same thing by limiting the number of FSD equipped cars sold, anyone will be able to operate a livery service and the competition will drive prices down to a fair return on the (very modest) investment.

My 2 cents. Not advice.

 

[anthonyj]

Trump says the US and Mexico have reached a deal to avoid tariffs
Trump says the US and Mexico have reached a deal to avoid tariffs


C’mon Trump, China next. Make them buy all the Tesla stockz

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Q2 numbers are pretty much set at 7k now for China* unless there’s inventory in China , with an additional 1k+/- to Japan.

To me its more of a question for Q3, you are looking at 10,072 3’s sent to China in Q1 versus maybe 4,000 in Q2. If you are the biggest bull in the world that’s got to make you question Chinese demand going forward into Q3, which is why I asked the question to Mars Emperor about how he views the Tesla brand in China

*edit this assumes there’s no inventory. If there’s inventory it still implies weaker sales of higher end margin to China.

China is difficult to estimate, it’s always been a black box.

The FUD here is also heavy, but not due to short sellers. Most people are just misinformed. So many articles are written out of context. After all, negative sugar gets more clicks, whether it’s written by media or fame-seeking individuals.

I think many were holding out for Model 3 from Giga 3, hoping for a killer price. Now that the not-so-low pricing of that Model 3 has been announced, some are willing to pull the trigger on imported versions. From a recent visit I paid to the biggest Tesla store in Shanghai, I can tell the traffic was quite good despite it being a working day afternoon.

I am cautions about short term though, if sales had been great, there would not have been so many promotions: free Autopilot in February, free FSD in May, 0 interest in June. (Note that SR+ is not included, actually no SR+ has been delivered as of yet)
I’m not too thrilled about the number of Model 3 I saw in Shanghai.
Maybe I need to go out more?

Long term I am optimistic.
- The government wants Tesla to be a success here. This government f**ks. They get whatever they want, at least domestically. (Many Times I am not happy about their decisions, but I fully support their determination in pushing EV adoption, still I don’t think Chinese EV companies or automotive companies as a whole can innovate much, the education system is just way too bad)
- The policies announced a few days ago are also in favor of EVs in general.
- Tesla is just superior, pure and simple, great products will sell.
- There are enough affluent Chinese people who can afford a Tesla.
- The 328K RMB pricing has room to wiggle (especially since Tesla does not include the 27.8K RMB Autopilot). I personally think it’s a nice balance right now I’m spite of some potential buyers moaning. Most will come around, realizing the actual value.
- The more Tesla on the road, the better information normal people will get. Like around the world, so many still think Tesla is super expensive, prone to spontaneous combustion...
- People have low expectations for FSD, even the Tesla sales rep who test drove with me doesn’t think it’s a big deal. She also said smart summon is risky in China due to people causing fake accidents in front of your cars. Anyway, I think Tesla will blow people’s mind with true full self driving.

Looking forward to 2020 H1.

 

[samk579]

Except if you wait a few years for our currency to be at par, you’ll have spent about the same amount in gas and oil changes. And your stuck in an ICE.....Makes sense to buy now.

I have a M3 arriving next week.
I did the math. I save only $2000 CAD a year. I save $800 on maintenance but I pay $800 for insurance.

AutoPilot is like having a driver so that's worth $2000 a year for me, that's why I am getting one. I don't need FSD though, not yet.

 

[shootformoon]

I meant raising price for the new production. When I said limited production, it is limited at 10k/y. After first batch being sold out, they can consider raising price.

How can you raise the price on something you no longer have for sale?

 

[shootformoon]

I have a M3 arriving next week.
I did the math. I save only $2000 CAD a year. I save $800 on maintenance but I pay $800 for insurance.

AutoPilot is like having a driver so that's worth $2000 a year for me, that's why I am getting one. I don't need FSD though, not yet.

Yes, only saving $2000 CAD a year. Keeping an ICE costs $2000 CAD more. It is almost like people pay extra to get the privilege to pollute?

 

[Singuy]

China is difficult to estimate, it’s always been a black box.

The FUD here is also heavy, but not due to short sellers. Most people are just misinformed. So many articles are written out of context. After all, negative sugar gets more clicks, whether it’s written by media or fame-seeking individuals.

I think many were holding out for Model 3 from Giga 3, hoping for a killer price. Now that the not-so-low pricing of that Model 3 has been announced, some are willing to pull the trigger on imported versions. From a recent visit I paid to the biggest Tesla store in Shanghai, I can tell the traffic was quite good despite it being a working day afternoon.

I am cautions about short term though, if sales had been great, there would not have been so many promotions: free Autopilot in February, free FSD in May, 0 interest in June. (Note that SR+ is not included, actually no SR+ has been delivered as of yet)
I’m not too thrilled about the number of Model 3 I saw in Shanghai.
Maybe I need to go out more?

Long term I am optimistic.
- The government wants Tesla to be a success here. This government f**ks. They get whatever they want, at least domestically. (Many Times I am not happy about their decisions, but I fully support their determination in pushing EV adoption, still I don’t think Chinese EV companies or automotive companies as a whole can innovate much, the education system is just way too bad)
- The policies announced a few days ago are also in favor of EVs in general.
- Tesla is just superior, pure and simple, great products will sell.
- There are enough affluent Chinese people who can afford a Tesla.
- The 328K RMB pricing has room to wiggle (especially since Tesla does not include the 27.8K RMB Autopilot). I personally think it’s a nice balance right now I’m spite of some potential buyers moaning. Most will come around, realizing the actual value.
- The more Tesla on the road, the better information normal people will get. Like around the world, so many still think Tesla is super expensive, prone to spontaneous combustion...
- People have low expectations for FSD, even the Tesla sales rep who test drove with me doesn’t think it’s a big deal. She also said smart summon is risky in China due to people causing fake accidents in front of your cars. Anyway, I think Tesla will blow people’s mind with true full self driving.

Looking forward to 2020 H1.

Can you look into what my dad found to be the life expectancy of an EV is in China? I know a few years back the Chinese government require all 10 year old ICE cars to be "bao fai" (recycled/crushed). My dad saw 8 years for EV for the city of Shanghai but didn't capture a date for that policy. What is the currently policy on this matter in regards to ICEs and EVs?

 

[Spacemanspliff]

China is difficult to estimate.
Looking forward to 2020 H1.

Thank you, that’s the response I was looking for in my original post.

 

[winfield100]

if tesla stock continues to rise i really recommend watching this youtube channel

over the coming months
hes short 46% of his money.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Was there a lot of profit taking in the late day? TSLA actually finished slightly lower than it opened. I guess all the people who had calls in the ~$180 range cashed out.

 

[RobStark]

The Car Industry Is Under Siege

I am sure this article is posted previously, but chinese market is huge 24 Millions unit a year, that is huge, GF3 going up at right time.

Sergio Marchionne's first choice was to merge FCA with GM and second VW.

Mary Barra CEO of GM put the kibosh on that one fast.

Now, RAM and Jeep are making very good money.

It would require GM to step up its game in BEVs to make for FCA's CAFE in USA and CO2 grams/km in Europe but might be doable.

Will US regulators be ok with one company owning GMC,RAM,Silverado, and Jeep?

 

[samk579]

Yes, only saving $2000 CAD a year. Keeping an ICE costs $2000 CAD more. It is almost like people pay extra to get the privilege to pollute?

Let's keep the conversation realistic with spending power of consumers. Consumer behaviour lead to sales.

If the world cares about pollution then we wouldn't have CO2 problems in the first place. What's done is done and we have already passed the tipping point.

 

[sundaymorning]

Xi Trump, meeting the end of June.

China's Xi calls Donald Trump his friend

 

[RobStark]

President Trump Tweets Trade Deal Signed With Mexico Avoids Tariffs

 

[Foghat]

China is difficult to estimate, it’s always been a black box.

The FUD here is also heavy, but not due to short sellers. Most people are just misinformed. So many articles are written out of context. After all, negative sugar gets more clicks, whether it’s written by media or fame-seeking individuals.

I think many were holding out for Model 3 from Giga 3, hoping for a killer price. Now that the not-so-low pricing of that Model 3 has been announced, some are willing to pull the trigger on imported versions. From a recent visit I paid to the biggest Tesla store in Shanghai, I can tell the traffic was quite good despite it being a working day afternoon.

I am cautions about short term though, if sales had been great, there would not have been so many promotions: free Autopilot in February, free FSD in May, 0 interest in June. (Note that SR+ is not included, actually no SR+ has been delivered as of yet)
I’m not too thrilled about the number of Model 3 I saw in Shanghai.
Maybe I need to go out more?

Long term I am optimistic.
- The government wants Tesla to be a success here. This government f**ks. They get whatever they want, at least domestically. (Many Times I am not happy about their decisions, but I fully support their determination in pushing EV adoption, still I don’t think Chinese EV companies or automotive companies as a whole can innovate much, the education system is just way too bad)
- The policies announced a few days ago are also in favor of EVs in general.
- Tesla is just superior, pure and simple, great products will sell.
- There are enough affluent Chinese people who can afford a Tesla.
- The 328K RMB pricing has room to wiggle (especially since Tesla does not include the 27.8K RMB Autopilot). I personally think it’s a nice balance right now I’m spite of some potential buyers moaning. Most will come around, realizing the actual value.
- The more Tesla on the road, the better information normal people will get. Like around the world, so many still think Tesla is super expensive, prone to spontaneous combustion...
- People have low expectations for FSD, even the Tesla sales rep who test drove with me doesn’t think it’s a big deal. She also said smart summon is risky in China due to people causing fake accidents in front of your cars. Anyway, I think Tesla will blow people’s mind with true full self driving.

Looking forward to 2020 H1.

Tesla has one arm tied behind its back right now and that’s the energy side. Its the real black box for everyone.

When we get concrete long term guidance numbers, (ie 1 million solar+battery customers or 100GW of batteries sold/installed) I feel it will blow people’s minds by the scale and scope of this business to the bottomline. Tesla Energy services will rock the utility industry.

And it will be just like the robotaxi network... an OTA and Tesla will create a network for Tesla Energy Services on it’s customer app.

 

[PeterJA]

The last shorts to add are the weakest hands. If bulls have dry powder left, short covering from the weak hands and robots should propel us over 200 this week. This kind of short interest is basically a coiled spring. Even though I was out from my long-term position last summer and started reinvesting my money I could not resist some calls at 200. I think we will rally hard now into at least investor day, maybe into earnings. It was just too much negativity from everyone all around. When even the bears start saying "maybe this has gone too far too soon" (not counting the crazy TSLAQ crowd) and every bull is holding onto their chair with white knuckles is when you need to flip your mental switch. I think it will not go lower unless Q2 is really crappy.

Does anyone else have thoughts/guesses on whether TSLA will dip to 180 again soon?

Clearly the FUD-storm is not over, but has shifted from falling demand to less-dire worries and obvious BS (Chanos's "poorly made cars"). Barring some catastrophe, I don't expect the stock to go much below 180, because that is the point where Jonas changed his tune and Damodaran went long.
Tesla's Travails: Curfew For A Corporate Teenager? - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
But will we go even that low?

The shareholder meeting on Tuesday could boost the stock, unless investors don't believe Elon as they didn't after Autonomy Day. Will the bounce continue from Tuesday, or will traders sell the news and shorts double down?

Right now, I'm thinking of investing half my dry powder on Monday and waiting for another dip to 180. Is this a silly risk for $25 when the longterm future is so bright? Who has a crystal ball?

 

[ClimateOptimst]

 

[neroden]

And yet, here we still are. Thank goodness for our long-standing tradition of keeping profits private, but making losses public.

Heh. Indeed. This tradition tires me. It's one reason we need a progressive income tax.