Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

There are videos on youtube showing the loading of RORO ships. If someone is interested (not me) you can estimate how many cars can be loaded each minute. I was impressed how quickly it was done.

As I pointed out, the maximum rate of loading is irrelevant because there will naturally be pauses. No ship is loaded at it's maximum rate for the entire loading procedure. Also, does the total time of loading begin and end when the ship is moved into place and then when it leaves? There are simply too many variables for this to be a useful metric in terms of China demand.

Going beyond the obvious uselessness of those "time to load" figures is the fact that China demand is not necessary to sell all the cars Tesla makes. There are still plenty of people around the world trying to get their hands on a Model 3. It's possible that China demand will be a little soft until the car buyers in China can buy a Chinese made Model 3. Those sales should start gearing up at the end of this year and will be a little better value and, perhaps more importantly for nationalistic Chinese people will be that they are made by their fellow countrymen. Until that happens, sales will be production limited anyway so there is not any reason to spend another minute trying to divine China sales by the loading times of the ships. If you really want to know you could probably stake out the loading dock from afar with a telescope and count each car as it was loaded onto China-bound ships. But any car sold in China is one more car that can't be delivered somewhere else. And I guarantee the cars will not be loaded at a consistent rate from ship to ship because the various ships are laid out differently.

 

[StealthP3D]

OT.
This was the one time I wasn't using autopilot, and the same motion to exit AP also puts the car in Reverse!

That's not true. You exit AP by pushing the stalk up to the first indent. Reverse doesn't engage unless you push the stalk all the way to the limit of its travel. That may seem to be a minor distinction but, as you nearly learned the hard way, it's important to learn how to use the various features of your car.

 

[Beltsbear]

There are videos on youtube showing the loading of RORO ships. If someone is interested (not me) you can estimate how many cars can be loaded each minute. I was impressed how quickly it was done.

I have watched Bimmers being unloaded in NJ. Six a minute or more. They must have had a lot of guys all at once driving.

 

[SOULPEDL]

That's not true. You exit AP by pushing the stalk up to the first indent. Reverse doesn't engage unless you push the stalk all the way to the limit of its travel. That may seem to be a minor distinction but, as you nearly learned the hard way, it's important to learn how to use the various features of your car.

I did not know that (or forgot). I got used to just hitting it upward which also disengaged AP, and so it worked as expected. Wow, I wonder how many others do this.

Thanks for the info!

 

[Cherry Wine]

Question for the financial folks here — did the updated FASB lease accounting standards have any effect on Tesla’s balance sheet in Q1? (Wherein GAAP now requires that the liability and right to use asset from a long term lease obligation must be reported on the balance sheet.)

 

[Off Shore]

OT.
Well... I almost backed into a car last night. Worth sharing in case anyone else tries this.

I was coming to a stop at a red light, behind someone, and decided to take it out of Autopilot because of a right turn ahead. This was the one time I wasn't using autopilot, and the same motion to exit AP also puts the car in Reverse! There actually was a car right behind me but I caught the reverse motion in time (lots of vitamins). My wife was like, "What the hell?" I sat quietly trying to figure out why I had even done it. It wasn't obvious to me at first - all subconscious.

A light tap on the brakes also exits AP, FWIW.

 

[Beltsbear]

Has this idea been discussed before?

Sell cars at lower price, buyers pay monthly to rent battery packs. The monthly rental fee is comparable to gasoline cost. This will eliminate the worry about battery life.

An Israeli company had this idea before. It is a good idea for a mature company. It takes a lot of up front capital though.

 

[StealthP3D]

Interview with Ross Gerber, courtesy of HyperChange's Gali.

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Thanks for that - worth watching (I recommend 1.25X speed). Some interesting ideas and perspectives presented.

 

[SOULPEDL]

A light tap on the brakes also exits AP, FWIW.

Ya, been considering that but I do it on freeway a lot where braking wouldn't be as smooth. Turns out my wife does the exact same thing, so it could be common.

This could easily be coded to provide a warning (travelling high speed and putting in reverse). A much better warning than "Close the lid slowly."

I could just do it again and do a bug report, see what they think.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Question for the financial folks here — did the updated FASB lease accounting standards have any effect on Tesla’s balance sheet in Q1? (Wherein GAAP now requires that the liability and right to use asset from a long term lease obligation must be reported on the balance sheet.)

Yes, and the effects are summarized on pages 12-13 of the Q1 10-Q.

 

[JRP3]

An Israeli company had this idea before. It is a good idea for a mature company. It takes a lot of up front capital though.

It's a bad idea for any company. There is no valid concern for pack life and if people want to lease they can lease the whole vehicle. No one would suggest leasing only one part of an ICE vehicle.

 

[Electroman]

once that limit is lifted we could see pent up demand being filled at good margins.

But that limit is not going to get magically lifted, or is imminent. There is NO clear path to dramatically increase the battery production for atleast two years. Even the Shanghai factory i believe is only expected to start with car production with buying cells locally.

Smart Summon would allow the recognition of more deferred revenue.

How so? Smart Summon is NOT FSD. So how could Tesla recognize any revenue from FSD?

 

[Unpilot]

Interview with Ross Gerber, courtesy of HyperChange's Gali.

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Not one of his better video's .
Way to much Gerber and not enough Tesla.
I am not of fan of Me...I ...Me..I and Gerber has that is spades.

 

[Prunesquallor]

The Instagram algo knows me well.....

View attachment 417060

For some reason I want one...

 

[Singuy]

Not one of his better video's .
Way to much Gerber and not enough Tesla.
I am not of fan of Me...I ...Me..I and Gerber has that is spades.

Setting up credibility is important. I had no idea who he was.

 

[ggr]

Mod: some posts moved to the politics thread. If you want to discuss the effect of tariffs, this might be a reasonable place, but that's not what these posts were about. --ggr.

 

[EVNow]

Has this idea been discussed before?

Sell cars at lower price, buyers pay monthly to rent battery packs. The monthly rental fee is comparable to gasoline cost. This will eliminate the worry about battery life.

Renault Zoe. More than 100k cars sold with leased batteries.

Battery hire | Renault Finance | Services | Renault UK

 

[tander]

Not sure

Question for the financial folks here — did the updated FASB lease accounting standards have any effect on Tesla’s balance sheet in Q1? (Wherein GAAP now requires that the liability and right to use asset from a long term lease obligation must be reported on the balance sheet.)

I haven't kept up with it but recall it would have been material to SCTY, since their solar leases looked really bad on paper, but the change would have turned that around. Not sure how that looks for TSLA now, might have interesting ramifications for Model 3 leases which just started last quarter.

 

[MP3Mike]

How so? Smart Summon is NOT FSD. So how could Tesla recognize any revenue from FSD?

Because Smart Summon is a part of the FSD option, so once they release Smart Summon they can recognize a portion of the FSD payments.

 

[Doggydogworld]

How so? Smart Summon is NOT FSD. So how could Tesla recognize any revenue from FSD?

Enhanced Summon and NOA were part of "old EAP". For 2.5 years EAP revenue has been partly deferred. Now Tesla can recognize most/all of that previously deferred EAP revenue.​

Enhanced summon (and NOA) are now part of "new FSD". A small part of the "new FSD" revenue deferred in Q1 can now be recognized. Going forward, a small part of FSD revenue will be recognized at time of sale instead of being fully deferred.