Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dc_h]

Super roughly, it predicts a really bad July in the US. The only people buying Teslas in July in the US will be people who weren't paying attention to the tax credit.
There will be a weak August in the US for Model 3 but S & X should be back to normal by then. Everything should be back to normal by September.

I think the EU and RHD deliveries could offset all of it for Q3 wince the backlog is so long, but many of those deliveries may well arrive in August.

I don’t think the 1875 tax change will be nearly as dramatic as the 3750 change. Tesla lowered prices to adjust and will probably adjust incentives in July. You’re probably right to a degree, but I don’t think the pull forward will be nearly as significant. More sales are also leading to more sales. I’m seeing so many more Tesla’s in western Chicago burbs and it’s not just 3s.

 

[Remus]

My only comment is the 462.3m of deferred revenue they expect to recognize in the next 12 months apparently includes the whole RVG mess as well as Supercharger, internet connectivity, EAP, FSD and OTA. I don't think the 37.4m recognized in Q1 includes the RVG stuff, but I could be wrong as the language is ambiguous.

Supercharger and internet connectivity as well as RVG have deferred costs that get recognized along with the deferred revenues. As you note, though, EAP/FSD are almost 100% gross margin.
The "expect to recognize" was 326.7m in the 10-K. That's 82m/quarter. So they were 45m short in Q1 2019 but then bumped the 12 month expectation by 136m? That's weird. Especially considering the Supercharger and internet connectivity parts are extremely steady. I'm not really sure how to quantify it, but I agree they seem to be planning a big jump in EAP/FSD non-cash revenue recognition.

Introduction of the the cheaper model 3 with no internet included in the purchase price was pretty recent and their delivery has been accelerating. Cars with no life time supercharging included was introduced a bit earlier but still the number of cars need to pay for the supercharging is also quickly increasing.

With a young expanding fleet that need to pay for those, why the increase on supercharging and premium connection spending surprising at all?

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

i tried but couldn’t get through more than 30 seconds of the video. i just don’t have that kind of patience...all i noticed was,
he’s driving in the rain, not paying attention because he’s recording a youtube video (implying he has an audience??, i wonder who they must be?)

putting ~50% of his life $ on the line shorting tesla (i feel bad for the user of that child seat in the back of the car).

i mean...unles that’s some kinda of parody, what an epic a$$hole of a person that guy is. lol. stay clear of that goof youtubers..do yourself that favor

Heh, you are a patient person. I did two jumps and still couldn't take more than 15 sec combined...

 

[Webeevdrivers]

This doesn't make sense - you've been on this board for over two years, nearly 1,000 messages, but you went and dropped a downpayment on a new 2020 Leaf? So I read some of your posts and you do seems challenged by the lack of a hatchback, steering wheel heater, and charging access to Chadmo. It would take more than that for me.

On the other hand, you were concerned about the safety of the Leaf (with another Leaf owner here) and you seem to support Tesla and love it's vehicles. This is hard to square for me, so maybe I don't understand completely.

When we bought our Model 3, I was hesitant on the single monitor and no dash gauges. I even thought from front view it looks a little like a bubble and 2-dimensional. And the price, about double we've ever paid for a vehicle. But we couldn't ignore the facts and fun/cool factor. I'm sure you've read them too. And hopefully you saw the comment regarding FSD with any other car being a "horse" purchase (maybe not next year, but plan on it for sure).

Then I saw this...



My advice as one Canadian to another - hold off on that Leaf purchase. If you can't get your current 7 yr leaf to go another year (with it's new battery as you say, and probably because of the Leaf battery defect), then maybe that's a hint. With the Leaf, consider the rapid depreciation on your 2nd purchase of a very complicated car with many more failure points. I just see money flowing from your wallet into the Leaf.. and again? I guess if you have all the money then go for convenience until the Model Y as you say. But why would your charging concern be any different with the Model Y? Just sayin'. Maybe take a spreadsheet approach, (Feature * Importance = Value). What do the numbers tell you? And keep this handy... JOHN48043 for some free power.

Thank you for your referral number. Good points all. We are not in our second Leaf battery though. Ours is a 2016 Leaf SV 30 KWh. I’m sure there is some degradation but nothing we notice. Might be a musunderstanding there. Money wise we are ok with the leafs depreciation. We paid 30,000 bucks Canadian. 2016 SV’s are selling for around 21000 bucks. If we get hit with 10,000 bucks depreciation in 4 years we are okay with that.

The safety thing I am never sure what to think. I think the EPlus has a five star rating as well but am having a hard time finding reference data.

The model Y would work for us (assuming it is higher than the model 3 and a little easier to get in and out of but we would keep the Eplus to travel to areas that have less Supercharger presence. Kootenays and Vancouver island. Bottom line we need two vehicles. But by that time I think two things will happen. The Supercharger network will have grown and there will be a CCS or Chademo adapter.

 

[Fact Checking]

- pretty much no vampire drain. Important for us as we leave the country for months at a time without being able to plug in.

Are you sure this is a thing for the Leaf? All Li-Ion cells are losing voltage over time.

The drain on most Teslas averages around 1-2% per day:

Tesla Model 3 "Phantom Drain" compared to Model S and Model X​

This article demonstrates 1.6%/day phantom drain on a 2011 Nissan Leaf over 8 days:

How Much Range Does Your Leaf Lose If You Unplug It For 8 Days?​

Which is comparable to Teslas if you are in the group of people with low phantom drain.

Note that:

• the chemistry matters: if the 2020 Leaf is going to use more nickel to improve energy energy density then phantom drain will probably increase,
• Tesla battery management controls battery temperatures even when the car is parked - Nissan won't I believe. So unless you are storing the car in climatized space the lack of temperature control might damage the battery pack.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Are you sure this is a thing for the Leaf? All Li-Ion cells are losing voltage over time.

The drain on most Teslas averages around 1-2% per day:

Tesla Model 3 "Phantom Drain" compared to Model S and Model X​

This article demonstrates 1.6%/day phantom drain on a 2011 Nissan Leaf over 8 days:

How Much Range Does Your Leaf Lose If You Unplug It For 8 Days?​

Which is comparable to Teslas if you are in the group of people with low phantom drain.

Note that:

• the chemistry matters: if the 2020 Leaf is going to use more nickel to improve energy energy density then phantom drain will probably increase,
• Tesla battery management controls battery temperatures even when the car is parked - Nissan won't I believe. So unless you are storing the car in climatized space the lack of temperature control might damage the battery pack.

I can’t speak to the Tesla as i don’t own one, other than what I read here on the forum.

I don’t know about the Eplus Leaf but four ish months of sitting in our garage with waking it up occasionally lost I think 2 percent. 68 to 66 percent or something like that.

 

[Fact Checking]

The safety thing I am never sure what to think. I think the EPlus has a five star rating as well but am having a hard time finding reference data.

Safety of Teslas is about:

Tesla Model S driver walks away from violent head-on collision caught on video​

Fatal head-on collision with a full to zero speed deceleration within a fraction of a second for both cars: the Tesla driver got out, walked and lived, the other car's driver was not so lucky.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

The Instagram algo knows me well.....

 

[mongo]

Lathrop isn't being built at GF3 speed. Maybe they should find the descendants of the people who built the Central Pacific RR and put them to work.

Lathrop is being built to support the Y, which is still a ways off. GF3 is for the 3 which is closer to now. No reason to spend extra to get it done before the rest of the tooling is ready.

 

[Ad Astra]

There is still an issue with repair costs and delays:
Jump to 10:50 for the numbers

It appears that the gravity of these issues is largely dependent on the area and the availability of Tesla’s internal body shop team. For example, my dad was involved in a minor fender bender in Houston a few weeks ago that damaged his rear bumper and his experience was radically different than that of the gentlemen in the video. He was quoted $600 for the repairs, went in to have the work done on Memorial Day and he was back on the road by lunchtime. Granted, the damage was comparatively less severe but, even when accounting for that, I find the quoted repair costs in the video quite excessive.

 

[Zaxxon]

Over the past week - I pulled all of my accounts with Morgan Stanley.

Thank you.

Are you sure this is a thing for the Leaf? All Li-Ion cells are losing voltage over time.

The vast majority of vampire drain on Teslas is not from the battery dropping via natural processes but from the computers and BMS. The Leaf has neither as a source of significant drain. Having owned both, I can confirm that if a Leaf and a Tesla are left in climate-controlled garages for the same amount of time, the Tesla will lose *far* more energy. Possibly an order of magnitude more.

I value the reasons this is so, and therefore don't mind it. But it's absolutely a thing.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Thank you for your referral number. Good points all. We are not in our second Leaf battery though. Ours is a 2016 Leaf SV 30 KWh. I’m sure there is some degradation but nothing we notice. Might be a musunderstanding there. Money wise we are ok with the leafs depreciation. We paid 30,000 bucks Canadian. 2016 SV’s are selling for around 21000 bucks. If we get hit with 10,000 bucks depreciation in 4 years we are okay with that.

The safety thing I am never sure what to think. I think the EPlus has a five star rating as well but am having a hard time finding reference data.

The model Y would work for us (assuming it is higher than the model 3 and a little easier to get in and out of but we would keep the Eplus to travel to areas that have less Supercharger presence. Kootenays and Vancouver island. Bottom line we need two vehicles. But by that time I think two things will happen. The Supercharger network will have grown and there will be a CCS or Chademo adapter.

Oops, ya that was pjoseph with the 7 yr Leaf/new battery.

Ya, 5 star is too easy to get now. They really need a 6 star rating because who could have believed a car could be so safe. I mean, who designs their front steering rods to break away hinging the wheel outward to help deflect the car away from the obstacle in collision? If you've never seen these Model 3 animations and specs, they blew my mind. And the detail is amazing! Model 3 achieves the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Safety of Teslas is about:

Tesla Model S driver walks away from violent head-on collision caught on video​

Fatal head-on collision with a full to zero speed deceleration within a fraction of a second for both cars: the Tesla driver got out, walked and lived, the other car's driver was not so lucky.

Impressive.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Oops, ya that was pjoseph with the 7 yr Leaf/new battery.

Ya, 5 star is too easy to get now. They really need a 6 star rating because who could have believed a car could be so safe. I mean, who designs their front steering rods to break away hinging the wheel outward to help deflect the car away from the obstacle in collision? If you've never seen these Model 3 animations and specs, they blew my mind. And the detail is amazing! Model 3 achieves the lowest probability of injury of any vehicle ever tested by NHTSA

Thanks for the info.

 

[StealthP3D]

That body shop is ripping him off.

When I first saw the video of the youngster backing the car into the brick wall I was of the mind the accident was on purpose. Not that I doubt anyone could be that bad of a driver but I'm very sensitive to when someone is acting. "Oh, gee, looks like I crashed, whoopsie, better call daddie and tell him".

Now we have the service manager at an independent repair shop telling them that they accidentally break the glass on 50% of "them" when removing it. And that the owner has to cover it. Fishier than a tuna sandwich sitting in the sun at Giza. Repair shops don't admit incompetence at doing what they do every day.

Then, the service manager agrees to go on video and is able to report the repair estimate down to the penny without even looking at the figure. As if she memorized it. That's where I had to quit watching because it was more than obvious this whole thing, from start to finish, was a setup, probably to make YouTube $$ but who knows if there is more to the agenda than that.

The independent repair shop is not ripping them off, they are in on the deal. I'm surprised no one else mentioned how fakey the whole thing is.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Safety of Teslas is about:

Tesla Model S driver walks away from violent head-on collision caught on video​

Fatal head-on collision with a full to zero speed deceleration within a fraction of a second for both cars: the Tesla driver got out, walked and lived, the other car's driver was not so lucky.

The other car's airbags inflated on the initial contact with the car in front of the Model S and provided no protection for the much more severe second impact. That was by far the single biggest factor behind the different outcomes between the two drivers. Mass difference between the two cars was also a factor, as always.

 

[SOULPEDL]

When I first saw the video of the youngster backing the car into the brick wall I was of the mind the accident was on purpose. Not that I doubt anyone could be that bad of a driver but...

OT.
Well... I almost backed into a car last night. Worth sharing in case anyone else tries this.

I was coming to a stop at a red light, behind someone, and decided to take it out of Autopilot because of a right turn ahead. This was the one time I wasn't using autopilot, and the same motion to exit AP also puts the car in Reverse! There actually was a car right behind me but I caught the reverse motion in time (lots of vitamins). My wife was like, "What the hell?" I sat quietly trying to figure out why I had even done it. It wasn't obvious to me at first - all subconscious.

 

[EVMeister]

Interview with Ross Gerber, courtesy of HyperChange's Gali.

.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Interesting, per the video, Tesla is working on video content, not advertising but content that can be put on a website or Youtube

 

[SO16]

There is still an issue with repair costs and delays:
Jump to 10:50 for the numbers

They would have been better off leaving the car the first time so it could have been taken apart in order to get ALL the necessary parts the first time. They did it in two separate orders. Also, the repair shop broke their window and then needed to replace that. This video turned me off from that channel because of all the drama.