Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

Electrek - 7 minutes ago: Tesla reduces the price of its solar systems - Electrek

Odd, this article appears to have been taken down.

 

[Stars aligned]

You’ll never see a review of a Tesla in the Boston Globe Autos section because it is an “Advertising Supplement” (see very small print top left) run by the dealers (see very large ad) but you’d never know because it looks like all the other real news sections.

Just a very clear example of how auto reporting is driven by ads from the dealers.

View attachment 426979

Given so much real estate with this ads in this forum, I have to ask if you are the one doing Audi advertisement here.

Edit: had to give you a disagree therefore. Not because of the words, but because of the Audi ads posted.

 

[mrmage]

Unless auto market completely collapses (but EV market doesn't) this is not possible. There is no way anyone can build 90x battery capacity in 5 to 10 years.

ps : We should also remember most people can't afford new cars. They will continue buying (ever cheaper) used ICE.

Sales of EVs could hit 90% in 10 years if autonomy works midway with destination chargers at work, home, and everywhere else.

Robo-taxies could reduce families with private vehicles by 2x or more, defer ownership for the rest, and families with EVs would only need 1 instead of multiple when cars can go where needed.

With charging everywhere, average EV range could easily drop 50% and cars would be usable. People might buy shorter range EVs for the daily commute, and use robo-rentals delivered to their door for longer trips.

Battery efficiency could further improve 50% or more.

Maybe 7-15x with various efficiencies. Still a lot of batteries, but doable within 10 years with 20-30% annual growth if some of these come true.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Update from Carsonight regarding battery pack production as of July 4:

“this may well be a scoop:
GF1 is now fully operational using the Grohmann machines, so the battery pack machines being utilized before are superfluous. These are now being sent to China in order to get the Tesla China factory up and running at minimal expense. The plan is that as the China factory generates profits some of those will be plowed into Grohmann machines for China.”

Disqus - Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to hit 3k/week by end of 2019: Chinese officials

I had expected the initial LR module/pack machines at GF1 to be shut down given the rapid ramp up of SR+ modules/packs during Q2, but it's great to get credible confirmation - this should be a boost to Q2/3 margins but its hard to quantify yet. Important to note Tesla is still operating the v1 Grohmann LR module/pack machines installed at GF1 in 2018. It's a great idea to transfer these old machines to China - it reduces GF3 capex and also lowers execution risk with the GF3 ramp given Tesla has already programmed these machines and has great experience how to operate them. I wonder if this means LR pack production at GF3, or if the machines can be reconfigured for SR+.

Another interesting comment from Carsonight suggests the new SR+ Grohman machine at GF1 may be 7k per week capacity alone - "I was told the new SR Grohmann machine can put out a battery pack every 45 seconds. If that is true, than that machine alone can create 1000 battery packs per day."

 

[winfield100]

To Boss Short;

Boss, Boss you would not believe the video I just found.
BIG BIG explosion right near a Tesla Supercharger !
If we play our cards right we can make them think it blew up !

SEE
Bash on Twitter


Your Partner in Crime
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

um, gas explosion, initial suspect is pizza place that was being renovated

 

[immunogold]

From carsonight today regarding timeframe for Panasonic GF1 to change cell chemistry from storage to cars:

“From the Panasonic side I know that they use the same 2170 cell (for storage) as the automobiles, but with a different chemistry that can be switched back-and-forth between vehicle and storage on less than a week's notice.”
Disqus - Tesla Model 3 production in Gigafactory 3 to hit 3k/week by end of 2019: Chinese officials

 

[dc_h]

Yes, Musk is very confident of that. He's totally wrong, but he certainly is confident.


Because it won't be.


Yes. It's a good thing that Tesla Inc. will do just fine when this business plan flops spectacularly due to the technology simply not being ready. They can always re-lease or sell the cars after they're returned from the lease -- nothing stopping them from doing that.

You have to think of this as Tesla taking out an option in case they have the tech ready. If the tech is ready, they can grab the lease returns. If it isn't, they haven't lost anything, they can still sell the cars.

I don’t want to be a jinx, but I think we will see level 4 this year. Once there most of the level 5 challenges are practice and proof. Miles will be piling up very fast and the system will improve more rapidly. Most highway situations are working now and traffic visualization is proceeding well pre neural network. The neural network will add to communication and cloud costs, so I’d guess they won’t roll out widely until it’s ready. Expect an S curve of digital proportions. Progress will be a slow march, followed by an amazing invisible sprint.

 

[EVNow]

Edit - the data sheet on the Maxwell tech says 16x production density increase. The 500wh/kg is assumed to be 2x current. Just these two things give an effective capacity increase on 32x current GF1 output. I do not think that there will be an issue building all the batteries that every car and truck needs to be 100% BEV

16x production density is only for one portion of battery production. You can't extrapolate that to entire plant.

 

[CalX]

Unfortunately I think this will take longer than you hope. It seems Tesla has been constrained, somewhat by battery shortages, despite investing billions early to build the necessary factory. Yet after several years and billions in investments, Tesla has been unable to even break 1% of the US auto market.

In the past quarter, they have exceeded 1% of the US market according to goodcarbadcar.net.

 

[EVNow]

I don’t want to be a jinx, but I think we will see level 4 this year.

I posted this in the other thread. But, to be lvl 4 - Tesla needs to finish with a decent quality level all these features (atleast the NHTSA ones). Note, Waymo tests every build for all these features and are somewhat competent on all of them within their geofence. Tesla has barely started on many of these.

Tracking FSD Feature Complete

 

[wipster]

Ford Beats Tesla, Again

Not sure if it’s been posted. Typically I get a little mad when I see these headlines but I laughed a bit at this one. If the electric car business was an uncertainty then I doubt Ford would invest $500 million in an electric truck company.
Typical stuff about Tesla. Demand is falling, no money.
They mention Tesla’s growth as a bad thing.
Apparently betting on Ford is a superior strategy compared to Tesla...seems like nonsense coming from a professor. What do you guys think?

Total BS. First it only deals with stock prices, and that's just a snapshot, depends when you took it... if you would have looked at Ford a few months ago, it was way down compared to today. Second, this guy looks at the past not the future. Ford is so confident in their own ability to make BEV's they made a major investment in Riviant, which I would bet will be the basis for their electric F150... not a bad strategy, but smells somewhat of desperation. And third, not mentioned by the author is the advantages Tesla has already created for themselves, like the supercharger network, their battery expertise and purchase of Maxwell, and the fact that they have most of issues with battery propulsion figured out while Ford and Rivian are just starting out with a lot to learn.

Very misleading headline, but anybody who really knows anything about Tesla can see right through it.

 

[madodel]

You also have to consider the improvement in cell density and also production efficiency improvements. The new Maxwell tech may double (or more) battery density over that period of time and the there is supposed to be a significant reduction in building footprint needed due to the dry battery electrode. If density tripled and footprint went down by a factor of three, you get 9x output from the current buildings. That 90x requirement becomes 10x and then seems far more achievable. You are also projecting out 10 years. Even with the current 7% annual improvement, you get 2x battery density by 10 years (compounded 7%)

Edit - the data sheet on the Maxwell tech says 16x production density increase. The 500wh/kg is assumed to be 2x current. Just these two things give an effective capacity increase on 32x current GF1 output. I do not think that there will be an issue building all the batteries that every car and truck needs to be 100% BEV

Has anyone discussed whether the Maxwell technology will be licensed to other non-Tesla related manufacturers? Is there competing technology that would match the advantage Tesla will have with Maxwell?

 

[Stars aligned]

16x production density is only for one portion of battery production. You can't extrapolate that to entire plant.

True as an isolated statement. But once again you just cherrypick part of the original message and twist it. The real message is that there is a path to 500wh/kg and a substantial part of battery production increases efficiency 16 fold.

Keep cherrypicking parts of messages which you can twist negatively, why not. But don't be fooled, no-one here with good intentions is blindsided.

 

[wipster]

Odd, this article appears to have been taken down.

True, but now you can get ElecTrek apparel... wonder if it has a picture of Fred on it?

 

[wipster]

um, gas explosion, initial suspect is pizza place that was being renovated

You missed the point, it's not because it WAS caused by a Supercharger, it's that because their was one in the vid, the shorts could blame it on the Supercharger... after all, it was a Shortsville Times publication!

 

[UncaNed]

OT

I suggest you to look at an Electric Minivan™ called Model X.

My model X is not a van by any measure. Try loading even a 4' x 4' plywood into a model X. 6 buckets of drywall compound? Anything heavy? Even at Very Low suspension setting, it's a long, long way up and over the rear door sill, then a long way back down into the lower rear compartment... Or up through the side door to the backs of the folded second row seats.

Could 2 front row passengers enter and stow their briefcases anywhere handy? Not with the mandatory center console taking up all the space between the seats.

I guess this design is necessary to get the world class safety ratings though... Why couldn't the second row seats be removable?

My dream car would be a Tesla copy of VW's electric VW bus "concept", which probably won't resemble the concept, if ever they did produce it.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

V3 is really only needed for those places with charging congestion or those places with very cold winters. V2 is just fine for around 80% of locations.

Correct. And I agree. I was only replying to someone stating that the pause in the supercharger build out in Q1 was due to Tesla waiting on V3 equipment - which was not the case.

 

[EVMeister]

True, but now you can get ElecTrek apparel... wonder if it has a picture of Fred on it?

Only the shorts.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

How do you know that?

Supercharge.info. No official, but historically very accurate.

 

[riverFox]

Only the shorts.

Front or back?