Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

You didn't see the context. The context has been - IF FSD is achieved, what should Tesla do.

FSD semis. Even more revenue for Tesla since no drivers needed.
2 drivers Fremont to GF1 per day per truck * 50k average salary * 1.6 overhead = $160k a year in labor savings. 6 trucks = $1 million additional profit per year.
24 hour (-charging) cross country car haulers.

Thanks for the calculations

One nit:

Cheap Autonomous robo-taxis will not only displace taxis, but vast swathes of personal vehicles as it expands the market greatly, so the 36 mpg figure may be a little high.

Only one? It's like 'Who's Line is it Anyway'.
Taxi numbers were easier to guestimate/ reference.

Yeah, if you get people in more efficient cars that helps, and shared vehicles reduces the number needed. People with low MPG may have a reason for that and not be as unclined to use shared mobility.

 

[EVNow]

Troy Teslike posted 5,978 bn as Tesla automobile revenue estimate in Q2 19. in Q3 18 it was 6,099 bn and 311mn earnings.

Anyone thinks the missing approx 250mn for an S&P inclusion can be reached?

Edit: Link Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike

Here is my reply ... Troy is assuming ~104k ASP (similar to previous quarters).

53k ASP for Model 3 is close to what I and luvb2b have assumed on TMC as well. Model S & X is another matter. Most of the S & X sales were pre-refresh, discounted. Probably 75%. They are also least likely to be in the sheet. IMO, the ASP on them would be lower.

 

[jbcarioca]

I was someone who bought an S because I couldn't wait any longer for the 3 here in the UK. I was thinking about this recently and I don't think the 3 eating into the S is a big deal. Someone in my position would be looking at a mid-low end S versus a fairly top end M3. In other words, when Tesla converts a low end S buyer into a high end 3 buyer, the profit margin likely goes up. Its a good thing

So was I although I bought a P85DL and replaced it with a P3D+. Statistically, thus far it seems that a low percentage of S buyers switch to Model 3, at least by Tesla tradein data they've released. Still, I'd wager that the majority of those few probably buy quite highly configured Model 3 so probably produce high GM.

 

[jbcarioca]

The viability of that option depends to a great extent on the residual value assumed in the lease rate calculation if rob-taxi tech is not perfected by the end of the lease term.

A technical point. Residual value is not assumed. It is set. Residual value is the end of lease contractual value. It has nothing to do with market value at lease end, although purely commercial lessors try to make it so that they do not lose money on vehicle disposition. Various types of 'subvention' (dealer, distributor or manufacturer RV subsidy) modify purely commercial terms. The residual value does make a huge difference in lessee purchase price at end of lease. None of that matters for Model 3 if the terms remain as Elon claimed, with no purchase option for the lessee at lease end.

 

[Driver Dave]

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/05/business/ford-vw-self-driving-electric-cars.html

“They must invest hundreds of billions of dollars in coming years or risk becoming irrelevant. And they face new competitors like Google and Uber“

Hilarious. NY Times and Boudette at it again.

Whole article about Ford and VW alliance for survival, clearly because of Tesla, yet no mention at all of Tesla in reporting.

Write me an article about electric cars and industry turmoil causing alliances and don’t mention Tesla. That is quite a challenge but Boudette pulled it off.

No wonder most investors have no idea what is going on and are left in the dark.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Totally OT to TSLA, and I definitely won't update this daily, but I thought some might find it interesting.

In November '18, Elon stated that the supercharger network would double in 2019. I'll show some progress below that indicates that Tesla has for sure ramped up the number of new superchargers over the last couple of months, but this in no way should be used to prove or disprove whether the network has "doubled". There are multiple ways you can measure the supercharger network. For example, you could use a count of the number of station, or you could get more detailed and count the number of stalls. Even more detailed, you could measure the total potential kwh of each station. I will just show the number of stations opening in the U.S. as an sample.

In November, when Musk made the tweet that the network would double by the end of 2019, there were ~ 578 supercharger stations in America. Since then, 102 have opened with the following monthly openings.

Nov '18 - 5
Dec '18 - 19
Jan '19 - 9
Feb '19 - 13
Mar '19 - 9
Apr '19 - 7
May '19 - 18
June '19 - 22

And there are 51 currently under construction in the U.S. (known). That's the highest construction number I have personally ever seen. Of those 51, nine started construction (or were discovered) in the last 2 weeks. That's a good indication that Tesla plans to continue the rapid build-out - at least for the next 3 months (about how long it takes to build and open a station on average).

So, just using the U.S., and the # of stations as a guide, I doubt the "double" will come to fruition (we're currently at 18% increase using # of stations in the U.S. since the tweet). However, you can see the openings have really increased the last 2 months. I'd have to guess that plans changed significantly in Q1 when the production and delivery issues became evident.

As I said before, what company invests money in their future if they even had an inkling that they might run out of cash? I have to wonder if the shorts even look at this.

 

[EVNow]

Market: in the US there are approximately 2 million semis
In 2016 the US had 305,000 taxi drivers. Assuming 2 shifts, under 200k taxis.
Semi: 10x the market

Cell usage:
Semi 600 kWh SR, up to 1,000kWh LR
Taxi: 60 kWh
Semi: 10 to 16x the cells.

Thanks for the calculations.

Some caveats
- LOT more Uber/Lyft drivers than Taxis. 3.9 Million for just Uber.
- Uber/Lyft have greatly expanded the "taxi" market because of convenience & price. AVs will make that even more - infact eventually capturing a large % of private transportation market.
- Avg mileage of current taxi/uber/private vehicle is lower than 35 mpg

Still, if we assume emissions avoided by 1 Semi ~= 10 robotaxis made using those cells per year, it still makes lot more sense to concentrate on making robotaxis in the first couple of years. Because
- It brings in a lot more money
- Tesla can build more gigafactories using that money
- Tesla can then produce more Semis & Robotaxis
- By making Semis instead of Robotaxis early on, Tesla will be stuck in slower growth. They can achieve hyper growth with robotaxis.

110 Amazing Uber Statistics, Demographics and Facts

 

[Driver Dave]

You’ll never see a review of a Tesla in the Boston Globe Autos section because it is an “Advertising Supplement” (see very small print top left) run by the dealers (see very large ad) but you’d never know because it looks like all the other real news sections.

Just a very clear example of how auto reporting is driven by ads from the dealers.

 

[mrmage]

You mean this Ark Invest?
Tesla could be worth ‘multiples’ of current $50 billion market cap by 2020, fund manager says

So well thought out and well researched with Bullseye accuracy.

Wood’s actual quote was “could be worth multiples in 2020”, not *by* 2020, and years later her presentation is consistent with EM’s recently reiterated timeframes. When you imply the race is lost a year and a half before it finishes, that moves beyond bias towards disinformation.

I have 2021 leap calls at 500 and higher, so it will be fun to see how this plays out.

 

[dhrivnak]

The demise of the ICE will happen faster than you indicate. As more ICE’s go end of life, the total consumption of petrol/diesel will reduce resulting in the closure of filling stations making it more difficult to refill your ICE. Already here in the UK, there have been significant reductions in the number of filling stations requiring one to go out of your way to refill. Many of those stations just about make a living, so it will not take much to tip some of those into closure (also considering improved fuel efficiencies, smaller cars). Once it starts, there will be a cascading effect.

Unfortunately I think this will take longer than you hope. It seems Tesla has been constrained, somewhat by battery shortages, despite investing billions early to build the necessary factory. Yet after several years and billions in investments, Tesla has been unable to even break 1% of the US auto market. It will take some time and significant investment to scale up battery supply chains and factories. As of yet I am not seeing that massive investment. Cars are MUCH larger, expensive and capital intensive than other technologies. I agree it will happen but this is not an easy transition.

 

[EVNow]

Troy Teslike posted 5,978 bn as Tesla automobile revenue estimate in Q2 19. in Q3 18 it was 6,099 bn and 311mn earnings.

Anyone thinks the missing approx 250mn for an S&P inclusion can be reached?

Edit: Link Troy Teslike‏ @TroyTeslike

Just to answer the question - if I use Troy's ~104k ASP, margin has to still go up a lot (compared to Q1) to get to even gaap break-even.

The margin has to go up from 18.6% margin in Q1 to 23% just for break even. Now this margin is combined 3 & S/X. Margin has to go up to 27% to get to 250M gaap profit. In other words, not likely.

 

[Hock1]

Yes, delays are real. But again, in this case the delays were exasperated by the body shop incompetence. This channel is milking this to the fullest.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/05/business/ford-vw-self-driving-electric-cars.html

“They must invest hundreds of billions of dollars in coming years or risk becoming irrelevant. And they face new competitors like Google and Uber“

Hilarious. NY Times and Boudette at it again.

Whole article about Ford and VW alliance for survival, clearly because of Tesla, yet no mention at all of Tesla in reporting.

Write me an article about electric cars and industry turmoil causing alliances and don’t mention Tesla. That is quite a challenge but Boudette pulled it off.

No wonder most investors have no idea what is going on and are left in the dark.

I just read this article, myself. It is unbelievable but, at the same time, very reassuring that big auto is, everyday, committing to electric and autonomous. They are soooo far behind but increasingly more in the game.

 

[Compton]

Totally OT to TSLA, and I definitely won't update this daily, but I thought some might find it interesting.

In November '18, Elon stated that the supercharger network would double in 2019. I'll show some progress below that indicates that Tesla has for sure ramped up the number of new superchargers over the last couple of months, but this in no way should be used to prove or disprove whether the network has "doubled". There are multiple ways you can measure the supercharger network. For example, you could use a count of the number of station, or you could get more detailed and count the number of stalls. Even more detailed, you could measure the total potential kwh of each station. I will just show the number of stations opening in the U.S. as an sample.

In November, when Musk made the tweet that the network would double by the end of 2019, there were ~ 578 supercharger stations in America. Since then, 102 have opened with the following monthly openings.

Nov '18 - 5
Dec '18 - 19
Jan '19 - 9
Feb '19 - 13
Mar '19 - 9
Apr '19 - 7
May '19 - 18
June '19 - 22

And there are 51 currently under construction in the U.S. (known). That's the highest construction number I have personally ever seen. Of those 51, nine started construction (or were discovered) in the last 2 weeks. That's a good indication that Tesla plans to continue the rapid build-out - at least for the next 3 months (about how long it takes to build and open a station on average).

So, just using the U.S., and the # of stations as a guide, I doubt the "double" will come to fruition (we're currently at 18% increase using # of stations in the U.S. since the tweet). However, you can see the openings have really increased the last 2 months. I'd have to guess that plans changed significantly in Q1 when the production and delivery issues became evident.

As I said before, what company invests money in their future if they even had an inkling that they might run out of cash? I have to wonder if the shorts even look at this.

The deployment has started to increase because they were waiting for supercharger version 3 hardware to become available and validated in public trials before wide-scale implementation. Thus I don't think that the first half of 2019 is representative of the expansion rate.

 

[EVNow]

You mean this Ark Invest?
Tesla could be worth ‘multiples’ of current $50 billion market cap by 2020, fund manager says

So well thought out and well researched with Bullseye accuracy.

Hey, if you are so sure, why don't you sell a lot of 2021 calls ?

BTW, do you work for one of Tesla competitors ? If so, shouldn't you disclose that ?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Unfortunately I think this will take longer than you hope. It seems Tesla has been constrained, somewhat by battery shortages, despite investing billions early to build the necessary factory. Yet after several years and billions in investments, Tesla has been unable to even break 1% of the US auto market. It will take some time and significant investment to scale up battery supply chains and factories. As of yet I am not seeing that massive investment. Cars are MUCH larger, expensive and capital intensive than other technologies. I agree it will happen but this is not an easy transition.

Careful. They’re still doubling their sales YoY. A few more years of that, and that’s the entire US auto market.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Hey, if you are so sure, why don't you sell a lot of 2021 calls ?

BTW, do you work for one of Tesla competitors ? If so, shouldn't you disclose that ?

Just FYI, you’re arguing with someone who insists that Volvo’s drive pilot whatever works better in every way than Autopilot. Don’t take it too seriously.

 

[ReflexFunds]

What do you guys think about the model3 model mix and the relatively low Model X & S deliveries?
Are the X and S demand declining due to Model 3? Or is Elon focusing on Model 3 production?
I hope the total profit does not decline even though Model 3 is ramping up nicely due to volume decrease in X and S.

Tesla seems to have had some issues updating S/X with the new Raven motors/suspension, I think there's a good chance they had also hoped to launch the interior refresh and possibly battery change by now too. This has impacted demand while people wait for the new models, and also impacted production rates. Q1 and part of Q2 was also heavily impacted by demand pull forward to 2018 from the tax credit changes in US and Holland. I think most of these issues should be over once Tesla launches the next stage of the refresh, hopefully in the coming months, at which point I think S/X sales can get back to a 80-100k run rate at strong ASP.
However Model 3 has definitely had some cannibalisation impact on Model S in particular, specifically in Europe where smaller cars are more popular. I also think E-Tron/I-pace/Taycan/EQC have had some impact on S/X sales in Europe, but this should start to fade as initial orders are filled and Tesla upgrades its specs/value even further ahead. Overall I think it more likely Tesla can get back to a c.90k run rate later this year.

 

[EVNow]

Just FYI, you’re arguing with someone who insists that Volvo’s drive pilot whatever works better in every way than Autopilot. Don’t take it too seriously.

Never understood why an obvious troll like him has not been banned.

 

[MartinAustin]

Saw it on twitter.
Elon is currently the longest-serving and most experienced automotive CEO.

Alp Soycengiz on Twitter

...I guess they can adjust the BMW CEO to 2019

 

[EVNow]

I'm still confident in EVs reaching 90%+ of new car sales somewhere between 2025 and 2030 driven by simple consumer demand for a far superior and cheaper product. However, traditional auto companies, the media and many politicians are doing all they can to slow this down.

Unless auto market completely collapses (but EV market doesn't) this is not possible. There is no way anyone can build 90x battery capacity in 5 to 10 years.

ps : We should also remember most people can't afford new cars. They will continue buying (ever cheaper) used ICE.