Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

@CaliBear1 :
I'll finally get to read a book again!

Any suggestions? ;-)



The Vegetarian Myth.

Just when you thought that maybe Elon and sustainable energy might save our species, you will find out that alas we are still doomed, because the the global food system has already been destroyed by .... agriculture! And that vegetarians are making it worse. Written by a recovering vegan.

Not an endorsement, but an encouragement to give it a try, quite an interesting and provocative read. Author Lierre Keith presents a strong case, with lots of references to other authors that I respect.

Electric farm machinery and reforestation of Karen’s land may help.

Thanks, will look for that too.

I was vegetarian for 10 years at the end of the last millennium, now-a-days I'm carnivore (and beer).

I see all sort of nonsense posted here regularly about "going vegan" to save the planet, but as it has been discussed to death before, I hold my tongue (fingers) and don't reply. Aside any other considerations, kilo for kilo, agriculture kills more animals than the meat industry - strange but true. And of course, humans evolved eating meat.

 

[NakedLong]

Karpathy talk... don't know if it has already been posted.

Andrej Karpathy | Multi-Task Learning in the Wilderness

 

[Fact Checking]

Karpathy talk... don't know if it has already been posted.

Andrej Karpathy | Multi-Task Learning in the Wilderness

BTW., I believe this talk also gives us a hint about the reasons behind recent departures in the Autopilot team:

Frustrated Musk Shakes Up Autopilot Team : teslamotors​

I believe most of the people who left or were let go in the last two quarters appear to be from the non-vision, non-NN group of the Autopilot team.

I.e. neural network based Software 2.0 is possibly taking over more and more of the FSD driving tasks, which causes organizational friction on the 'procedural code based FSD driving' side of the Autopilot team.

I'd expect this process to continue, up until a point where there's basically just actuators control and core physics engine remaining on the procedural side which is fed observational data from the neural networks and which can calculate/simulate the car's expected movement constraints and properties into the near future - and a separate GPS signal, maps and navigation route interpretation engine.

I believe that's how SpaceX's avionics is working as well to a large degree, with the difference that they have enough sensors and don't need complex neural networks to extract quality sensor data from complex traffic scenarios with a set of inexpensive sensors (8 cameras, one radar, etc.).

BTW., I believe Elon's "AI driven rain sensor" experiment from a year ago was the dry run for this, and Karpathy's team has proven that neural networks can replace almost arbitrary physical sensors - even a $5 rain sensor.

 

[SPadival]

I am not one who thinks they need to advertise.

What they do need is better Marcom. WAIT...They have no Marcom...so how about just someone(s) to help counteract the FUD and get some positive media attention.

According to Bonnie , they do have marcom people. I guess they get overruled and overshadowed by Elon a lot .

 

[FrankSG]

The low on 3rd June was $176.99, a rise of 38.5% in just over a month.

Not bad, but we're only getting back what was unfairly taken with all the shenanigans.

And a nice little blip in AH to $246.19

I just need another 2% by Thursday for my own personal traded to come off - actually I think I'll remove my $250 sell order and see how it plays out first, might bump higher than that.

Don't want to tell you what to do with your money/investments, and you should definitely make up your own mind, but I think Tesla @ $250 is still a steal. I'd suggest looking into what you think a fair valuation for Tesla is in 2-3 years after Gigafactory 3 and Model Y ramp.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Yup I have to admit that I was surprised to hear them talk during the autonomy day about specific situations such as 'plastic bag in road' and requesting a bunch of data to determine what that could look like, and then coding how to react. It seemed like they were using a neural net simply for visual recognition of scenarios, and then using good old fashioned logic code to decide what to do.
Until then I had assumed that they were going full-on crazy-bonkers neural net, (which maybe they are), where the NN just takes in a load of camera data and then.... *does things*, in the exact same way our brains do. After the event we may well be able to play events back and rationalise our thought processes regarding plastic bag detection, threat level comparison and steering/braking adjustment, but this is all 'after the event' blagging, whereas our brain did some short cut responses without us really thinking.

I imagine eventually self driving will do this for everything. Its only a VERY reinforced pattern in our own neural nets that makes us slow down, and then stop when we see a red light. Its not like humans have one brain with hard coded rules and another for 'fuzzy' decision making. (although 'thinking fast and slow' maybe suggests we do...?)

I find the idea of pure-neural-net autonomy very interesting, but also terrifying, but I accept thats partly due to the fact that I'm a traditional logic-coder and like to know how decisions were made, whereas with a more fuzzy NN approach you maybe never can, making court cases after an accident *Interesting*.

 

[Sancho]

Elon is smart. He’ll say he is a Schrödinger's cat/dog person



Then why did AJ release a bearish note right after Jerome’s leaked email? No coincidence there - he wants to suppress the bounce and now argues that demand has been pulled forward without offering any evidence.

I wasn’t sure where AJ was coming from before (his notes have been all over the place), but the timing and content of his note after the Jerome leaked email sure has a strong stench of SP manipulation. One more note like that and he gets inducted into the David Tamberrino Hall of Shame.

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks, will look for that too.

I was vegetarian for 10 years at the end of the last millennium, now-a-days I'm carnivore (and beer).

Just be aware that the book is written by a person (Lierre Keith) with no medical (or scientific in general) credentials of any sort, whose "science" in the book has been widely criticized by actual scientists, and who advocates for reducing Earth's population by 90%, a return to hunter-gatherer lifestyles (plus small-scale animal husbandry), and wrote another book advocating for "Deep Green Resistance" (e.g. militant ecoterrorism) as underground cells under a military-style command structure, organized to blow up dams and other infrastructure.

Everyone is free to have their own views on vegetarianism and veganism (we've sure had more than enough... um... "spirited conversation" here about it!), but I encourage everyone, on this topic - and others - to rely on scientists rather than ecoterrorists for their sources of scientific information.

 

[FrenchBoy]

Hello everyone !

I have been reading this forum for more than two years now (thank you for all your valuable information !) and I decided to post now because I am so excited I need to share it with you guys.

But before explaining why, let me introduce myself : I am 26 years old, from France, engineer. I had the opportunity to work in the US for a year for my company when I was 24. I come from a very (very) modest family, but my parents always taught me that with hard work I could achieve anything I want, no matter where we wome from. 2 years ago starting my career I had litteraly 0$ on my bank account but started to make good money from the good position I have in my job and logically for me, put almost all of my savings in Tesla.

I started investing in Tesla mid 2017 (I will not explain my personal reason why Tesla, you guys mostly know), bad timing some would say but it was my first try at investing and I don’t regret since I learned a lot about the psychology of it and I keep learning. Since then I added on every deep (last at 178$ I am really proud of) and reduced my average buying price of around 70$ (still in the red for now).

I identify a lot to Gali from HyperChange because we have the same age and almost as many shares, ridiculous amount compared to most of you guys but I don’t plan on selling for the next 15.. 20 years.. ever ? And as half of all my possession are Tesla shares, I am really confortable with that (althought I would have loved buying more under 200 but had no more dry pouder…)

ANYWAY, I am SO EXCITED today for something you already experienced a lot. I live in Paris, I am a Tesla investor and very vocal about it, explaining to everyone who wants to hear what you guys explain here for years, and I have been mocked a lot for that. Last month, I convinced one of my colleagues/friend to buy a model 3 (He drives A LOT and with the price of gas in France, it really is a no brainer for him). For the past year, another colleague (around 50years old, former military, love muscle cars) is mocking me calling me « the electric guy » in a bad way, mocking Tesla, etc… and mocking my friend with his Tesla for the past month (« don’t park your Tesla close to my car I don’t want it to burn », « you must have a long cable to drive home », etc…) . This guy spends 15000€ in gas every year so now WE were mocking him for that and for the first time he didn’t know what to answer.

The reason I AM SUPER EXCITED is because my friend gave him a test drive last Thursday at 1PM, at 1.30PM he was on Tesla website to configure his own. I was mind blown, if a guy like him can be so easily convinced with the economics and most importantly the car (I smile at him in a « I won » way and he told me « I knew it could be interesting economically but I really didn’t expect the car to be so good, fun and amazing to drive… »), it is definitely over, WE WON!!! I post a picture of my friend’s Tesla on a story Instagram the Friday (I almost never post so) I don’t get much answer usually but this time I got answer of (french) people saying they dream to have a Tesla, how it is, asking a lot of interested questions.

Sorry for this long post, I am just so so happy. So many people criticizing Tesla and mocking my investment saying I was just throwing money out of the window… It is just game over, we won. Everyone wants Tesla, in every parts of the world! I see one per day in Paris now (I don’t live in the rich sector) where I never saw any just 6 months ago.

Cheers to the long, thanks TMC posters, I love you guys !

 

[RFernatt]

I'll finally get to read a book again!

Any suggestions? ;-)

For new scifi, I've recently enjoyed Children of Time and it's sequel, Children of Ruin, by Adrian Tchaikovsky.

 

[HG Wells]

I'll finally get to read a book again!

Any suggestions? ;-)

Harry Turtledove's World War and Colonization series.

Start with "In the Balance "

Link
https://www.amazon.com/Balance-Alte...refix=in+the+balance+ha,automotive,130&sr=1-1

 

[Sancho]

Hello everyone !

I have been reading this forum for more than two years now (thank you for all your valuable information !) and I decided to post now because I am so excited I need to share it with you guys.

But before explaining why, let me introduce myself : I am 26 years old, from France, engineer. I had the opportunity to work in the US for a year for my company when I was 24. I come from a very (very) modest family, but my parents always taught me that with hard work I could achieve anything I want, no matter where we wome from. 2 years ago starting my career I had litteraly 0$ on my bank account but started to make good money from the good position I have in my job and logically for me, put almost all of my savings in Tesla.

I started investing in Tesla mid 2017 (I will not explain my personal reason why Tesla, you guys mostly know), bad timing some would say but it was my first try at investing and I don’t regret since I learned a lot about the psychology of it and I keep learning. Since then I added on every deep (last at 178$ I am really proud of) and reduced my average buying price of around 70$ (still in the red for now).

I identify a lot to Gali from HyperChange because we have the same age and almost as many shares, ridiculous amount compared to most of you guys but I don’t plan on selling for the next 15.. 20 years.. ever ? And as half of all my possession are Tesla shares, I am really confortable with that (althought I would have loved buying more under 200 but had no more dry pouder…)

ANYWAY, I am SO EXCITED today for something you already experienced a lot. I live in Paris, I am a Tesla investor and very vocal about it, explaining to everyone who wants to hear what you guys explain here for years, and I have been mocked a lot for that. Last month, I convinced one of my colleagues/friend to buy a model 3 (He drives A LOT and with the price of gas in France, it really is a no brainer for him). For the past year, another colleague (around 50years old, former military, love muscle cars) is mocking me calling me « the electric guy » in a bad way, mocking Tesla, etc… and mocking my friend with his Tesla for the past month (« don’t park your Tesla close to my car I don’t want it to burn », « you must have a long cable to drive home », etc…) . This guy spends 15000€ in gas every year so now WE were mocking him for that and for the first time he didn’t know what to answer.

The reason I AM SUPER EXCITED is because my friend gave him a test drive last Thursday at 1PM, at 1.30PM he was on Tesla website to configure his own. I was mind blown, if a guy like him can be so easily convinced with the economics and most importantly the car (I smile at him in a « I won » way and he told me « I knew it could be interesting economically but I really didn’t expect the car to be so good, fun and amazing to drive… »), it is definitely over, WE WON!!! I post a picture of my friend’s Tesla on a story Instagram the Friday (I almost never post so) I don’t get much answer usually but this time I got answer of (french) people saying they dream to have a Tesla, how it is, asking a lot of interested questions.

Sorry for this long post, I am just so so happy. So many people criticizing Tesla and mocking my investment saying I was just throwing money out of the window… It is just game over, we won. Everyone wants Tesla, in every parts of the world! I see one per day in Paris now (I don’t live in the rich sector) where I never saw any just 6 months ago.

Cheers to the long, thanks TMC posters, I love you guys !

Great first post FrenchBoy.

When you were just a lad, Steve Jobs walked onto a stage and introduced the iPhone. Despite the greatness of the device, and SJ’s unparalleled gifts as a promoter, many people dismissed it at first. Until they used it.

Nobody really gets Tesla (and TSLA) until they truly understand that the Model S and 3 are not just the best EV cars, but the best cars.

Motor Trend just named the Model S the best ever of the 70 cars that it awarded Car of the Year. It’s worth reading MT’s announcement to be reminded of the scope of Tesla’s automotive accomplishment:

2013 Tesla Model S Beats Chevy, Toyota, and Cadillac for Ultimate Car of the Year Honors - MotorTrend

Unlike the original iPhone, Tesla cars are very expensive, and so it’s going to take much longer for everyone to experience them and get turned around like your friend. So while I agree that Tesla is likely to “win”, the game is early and will continue to have its ups and downs.

 

[flabellina]

Following @FrenchBoy tale, and since we are in the weekend, I can tell things are slowly moving in Italy too.
I live in a 45000 people town, in an area that I would describe like Iowa with rice instead of corn. Old school mentality and an ever ageing population.

They installed a charging station 50m from my home, two spots. For month I saw nobody charging there. 10 days ago I was driving back home and as I turned the corner I saw a glimpse of a blu car parket there. Could it be... a model 3?
Sure it was! First Tesla I ever saw in real life. I was so excited I left a note "gran macchina!"
I saw it there charging a couple more times. Then, three days ago, I saw another model 3, a black one parked in front of my house! Turns out it was a doctor visiting. His wife bought it for him because she was fed up with spending so much money in gas.

And yesterday at the charging spot there was a black model S! Holy cow the thing is huge! Model 3 is better for our roads, and parking spaces...

In Italy teslas are still way too expensive to be a choice for most people, despite the fact the we do have some incentives, and they are certanly not very well known. But it's encouraging to see them finally getting here!

 

[humbaba]

BTW., I believe this talk also gives us a hint about the reasons behind recent departures in the Autopilot team:

Frustrated Musk Shakes Up Autopilot Team : teslamotors​

I believe most of the people who left or were let go in the last two quarters appear to be from the non-vision, non-NN group of the Autopilot team.

I.e. neural network based Software 2.0 is possibly taking over more and more of the FSD driving tasks, which causes organizational friction on the 'procedural code based FSD driving' side of the Autopilot team.

I'd expect this process to continue, up until a point where there's basically just actuators control and core physics engine remaining on the procedural side which is fed observational data from the neural networks and which can calculate/simulate the car's expected movement constraints and properties into the near future - and a separate GPS signal, maps and navigation route interpretation engine.

I believe that's how SpaceX's avionics is working as well to a large degree, with the difference that they have enough sensors and don't need complex neural networks to extract quality sensor data from complex traffic scenarios with a set of inexpensive sensors (8 cameras, one radar, etc.).

BTW., I believe Elon's "AI driven rain sensor" experiment from a year ago was the dry run for this, and Karpathy's team has proven that neural networks can replace almost arbitrary physical sensors - even a $5 rain sensor.

I believe it was Karpathy's presentation on "software 2.0" where he talked about the neural net absorbing an increasing amount of driving responsibility in Tesla's autopilot. At the time it was little more than vision, but he indicated the trend was toward complete absorption.

That bothered me from the perspective of repeatability and proof of function: a key feature of neural nets is yielding certainty for probability (with the reward that otherwise intractable problems become tractable).

But I also realized that the certainty was deceptive. When you understand that vision is probability based and that vision accounts for a large part of the input into driving decisions then your decisions are already probability based. And, because in practice no one fully specifies problems, proofs are not as strong as they first appear whereas you can reach a statistical certainty on the basis of probability. Whether or not Tesla's current approach proves sufficient for full autonomy (I won't be surprised if they have to adjust course somewhat along the way) the use of neural networks over procedural programming may well be more robust in terms of proving and improving the reliability.

So anyone involved in non-neural network aspects of autopilot leaving Tesla are, I think, understandable. The trend will be they either move to the neural network side or leave.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Does anyone know why the standard/free colour is still black? I thought it was supposed to switch over to non-pearl white at the beginning of July?

 

[willow_hiller]

I believe it was Karpathy's presentation on "software 2.0" where he talked about the neural net absorbing an increasing amount of driving responsibility in Tesla's autopilot. At the time it was little more than vision, but he indicated the trend was toward complete absorption.

That bothered me from the perspective of repeatability and proof of function: a key feature of neural nets is yielding certainty for probability (with the reward that otherwise intractable problems become tractable).

But I also realized that the certainty was deceptive. When you understand that vision is probability based and that vision accounts for a large part of the input into driving decisions then your decisions are already probability based. And, because in practice no one fully specifies problems, proofs are not as strong as they first appear whereas you can reach a statistical certainty on the basis of probability. Whether or not Tesla's current approach proves sufficient for full autonomy (I won't be surprised if they have to adjust course somewhat along the way) the use of neural networks over procedural programming may well be more robust in terms of proving and improving the reliability.

So anyone involved in non-neural network aspects of autopilot leaving Tesla are, I think, understandable. The trend will be they either move to the neural network side or leave.

I understand how a neural net only approach would work when it comes to something fundamental about driving, like staying on the road or avoiding obstacles. But I don't understand how it would work for actual navigation. Say something like an unprotected left turn. Would the vehicle have a separate left turn neural net, trained exclusively on footage of unprotected lefts, and jump into that routine when a left is needed?

 

[jerry33]

9. He sleeps on the floor.

10. He makes sure that any of his furballs are right where you will step on them.

 

[jerry33]

Does anyone know why the standard/free colour is still black? I thought it was supposed to switch over to non-pearl white at the beginning of July?

No idea. Maybe they thought about it and how it would be seen as a negative.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Hello everyone !

I have been reading this forum for more than two years now (thank you for all your valuable information !) and I decided to post now because I am so excited I need to share it with you guys.

But before explaining why, let me introduce myself : I am 26 years old, from France, engineer. I had the opportunity to work in the US for a year for my company when I was 24. I come from a very (very) modest family, but my parents always taught me that with hard work I could achieve anything I want, no matter where we wome from. 2 years ago starting my career I had litteraly 0$ on my bank account but started to make good money from the good position I have in my job and logically for me, put almost all of my savings in Tesla.

I started investing in Tesla mid 2017 (I will not explain my personal reason why Tesla, you guys mostly know), bad timing some would say but it was my first try at investing and I don’t regret since I learned a lot about the psychology of it and I keep learning. Since then I added on every deep (last at 178$ I am really proud of) and reduced my average buying price of around 70$ (still in the red for now).

I identify a lot to Gali from HyperChange because we have the same age and almost as many shares, ridiculous amount compared to most of you guys but I don’t plan on selling for the next 15.. 20 years.. ever ? And as half of all my possession are Tesla shares, I am really confortable with that (althought I would have loved buying more under 200 but had no more dry pouder…)

ANYWAY, I am SO EXCITED today for something you already experienced a lot. I live in Paris, I am a Tesla investor and very vocal about it, explaining to everyone who wants to hear what you guys explain here for years, and I have been mocked a lot for that. Last month, I convinced one of my colleagues/friend to buy a model 3 (He drives A LOT and with the price of gas in France, it really is a no brainer for him). For the past year, another colleague (around 50years old, former military, love muscle cars) is mocking me calling me « the electric guy » in a bad way, mocking Tesla, etc… and mocking my friend with his Tesla for the past month (« don’t park your Tesla close to my car I don’t want it to burn », « you must have a long cable to drive home », etc…) . This guy spends 15000€ in gas every year so now WE were mocking him for that and for the first time he didn’t know what to answer.

The reason I AM SUPER EXCITED is because my friend gave him a test drive last Thursday at 1PM, at 1.30PM he was on Tesla website to configure his own. I was mind blown, if a guy like him can be so easily convinced with the economics and most importantly the car (I smile at him in a « I won » way and he told me « I knew it could be interesting economically but I really didn’t expect the car to be so good, fun and amazing to drive… »), it is definitely over, WE WON!!! I post a picture of my friend’s Tesla on a story Instagram the Friday (I almost never post so) I don’t get much answer usually but this time I got answer of (french) people saying they dream to have a Tesla, how it is, asking a lot of interested questions.

Sorry for this long post, I am just so so happy. So many people criticizing Tesla and mocking my investment saying I was just throwing money out of the window… It is just game over, we won. Everyone wants Tesla, in every parts of the world! I see one per day in Paris now (I don’t live in the rich sector) where I never saw any just 6 months ago.

Cheers to the long, thanks TMC posters, I love you guys !

That's the second time Americans have helped liberate Paris. First time from ze Germans, this time from smog (made by ze Germans)

 

[JRP3]

Elon is smart. He’ll say he is a Schrödinger's cat/dog person

Indeed, he has 2 dogs and a cat named Schrödinger. And of course a snail named Gary.