Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Alphacrux]

HVDC converter station maybe?

Whatever it is, there must be some serious physical loads on it - that's a crazy amount of rebar.

Or a Krell power station

 

[Cosmacelf]

Or a Krell power station

Maybe!

I still think Robbie was one the best movie robots ever:

 

[MP3Mike]

Whatever it is, there must be some serious physical loads on it - that's a crazy amount of rebar.

It looked like a lot of it was bamboo scaffolding to me.

 

[AudubonB]

I know a Norwegian who did just that - and swapped the Tesla for a Jag. Thought the iPace looked really cool. So they exist. Some favour style and looks over function. And others just want to be different.



Not all. But a few might. Having a Tesla in Norway is not a way to stand out in a crowd. You need an iPace or e-Tron to do that. But soon they will be too common too. So then you need a Taycan.

For some people these things matter.

First they laugh at you.
Then they fight you.
Then Nobody buys a Tesla anymore because Everybody has them.

 

[mongo]

It looked like a lot of it was bamboo scaffolding to me.

Mostly scaffold, but I don't think it's bamboo:
Around 10:40 in this vid:

Scaffold vs rebar:

Metal scaffold sliding together:

 

[EVNow]

One interesting note about S & X.

Q1 '15 was the first time S sold more than 10k per quarter. Q1 '17 was the first time X sold more than 10k / quarter. So, if we just have those buyers replace the S & X after 5 years - soon Tesla just needs repeat customers to sustain 20k+ / quarter. So, that would be Q1 '20 for S and Q1 '22 for X.

Ofcourse there will be some who replace later or with a different vehicle (esp. 3 & Y). So, to that extent, Tesla needs new buyers.

 

[TNEVol]

They do seem to be off to a faster start with shipping than in Q1 or Q2. About 3,5k cars just left (mostly RHD M3), with another 2k cars sitting at Pier 80 waiting for the next ship.

Tesla opened up a fairly sizeable can-o-demand when they opened RHD orders, and they've only barely started filling it. Not as big as LHD EU/China, but still big, and it's going to take a lot of vehicle shipments to feed it.

Just an observation. At the end of June we saw several truckloads of M3 going East which couldn't be delivered in Q2. We continued to see trucks in early July. In the past there were no trucks at the end of the quarter supposedly due to California deliveries. And there were no trucks at the beginning of the quarter due to Europe and China deliveries. IMO it looks like at least in the US the wave is being truncated

 

[Sudre]

Could it be a power substation with a large emergency generator, to keep the factory powered during hurricanes and flood? It would be natural gas powered, hence the distance to the main building.

Individual pump stations could thus be electric and would be distributed along the flood defense perimeter. The pumps are needed because levees are not enough: ground water would press in from below during prolonged river flood events.

Cheaper, simpler and faster than elevating this huge factory area.

With the right construction you would not need pumps on the perimeter if the draw well was deep enough. Depends on how porous the ground is but you are right that with that marsh land a wall would keep the high water out but it would seep up on the other side sooner or later. I still don't think that's what this is.

If Tesla is going for power backup I think Karen might be onto something. They would use battery, solar, and wind. Sure they could use fossil fuels but how can Tesla sell utility scale battery backup and not be able to use their own product? (put their money where their mouth is)
As someone else has mentioned a 220kV AC step down transformer would be outside for cooling purposes.

Maybe it is Elon's experimental fusion power plant?
OR a pressure gate for the through planet tunnel from Fremont? The Boring company has been quite for a while.

 

[Alphacrux]

One interesting note about S & X.

Q1 '15 was the first time S sold more than 10k per quarter. Q1 '17 was the first time X sold more than 10k / quarter. So, if we just have those buyers replace the S & X after 5 years - soon Tesla just needs repeat customers to sustain 20k+ / quarter. So, that would be Q1 '20 for S and Q1 '22 for X.

Just did. You can thank me later

 

[Yuri_G]

Interesting discussion from Fully Charged on the materials for battery mining. Well worth the 30 minute listen!

 

[EVNow]

Just an observation. At the end of June we saw several truckloads of M3 going East which couldn't be delivered in Q2. We continued to see trucks in early July. In the past there were no trucks at the end of the quarter supposedly due to California deliveries. And there were no trucks at the beginning of the quarter due to Europe and China deliveries. IMO it looks like at least in the US the wave is being truncated

EU/China demand is not enough to take up entire July & 1/2 of June - when 50% of deliveries were abroad. Now it is more like 2/3rd are in NA. So, they can continue to deliver half the production in NA in the first 2 months.

 

[TNEVol]

EU/China demand is not enough to take up entire July & 1/2 of June - when 50% of deliveries were abroad. Now it is more like 2/3rd are in NA. So, they can continue to deliver half the production in NA in the first 2 months.

So we agree it is likely that a smoothing of US deliveries is happening? I see early quarter US east coast deliveries as indicating confidence in simultaneous China and Europe deliveries because previously US deliveries would be second to loading ships.

 

[TheMrX]

HVDC converter station maybe?

Whatever it is, there must be some serious physical loads on it - that's a crazy amount of rebar.

What is heavier than well stacked batteries?

A well stacked stack of PowerPack ?

 

[EVNow]

Here is the factset consensus on Jul-11. Note this is non-GAAP, as always.

Tesla to report Q2 results on July 24

Analysts polled by FactSet expect Tesla to report an adjusted loss of 45 cents a share on sales of $6.6 billion in the quarter, which would compare with an adjusted loss of $3.06 a share on sales of $4 billion in the year-ago period.

My mid estimate is 31 cents loss on sales of $6.2B.

@luvb2b's estimate is 66 cents loss on sales of $6.4B. ​

 

[Tenable]

One interesting note about S & X.

Q1 '15 was the first time S sold more than 10k per quarter. Q1 '17 was the first time X sold more than 10k / quarter. So, if we just have those buyers replace the S & X after 5 years - soon Tesla just needs repeat customers to sustain 20k+ / quarter. So, that would be Q1 '20 for S and Q1 '22 for X.

Ofcourse there will be some who replace later or with a different vehicle (esp. 3 & Y). So, to that extent, Tesla needs new buyers.

I traded my 2015 85D in for a P100D a couple months ago. Got my dad a model 3 in December. Been investing in TSLA the entire way down. Doing my part wherever possible. I’m sure many others here are doing the same.

 

[Pezpunk]

Being retired from the water and wastewater business, it looks even less like a pump station than an electrical substation. Keep the guesses coming though. Eventually we'll figure it out.

Power storage facility? a huge battery?

 

[Alphacrux]

Just did. You can thank me later

Disagree? Just wanted to add a quote from the famous Mr. Monk: “You’ll thank me later” (joke).

 

[Mobius484]

Are those cell sorting conveyors with tubes for transfer of cells? Trying to figure out the connection system.... this part of paint system? More likely some sort of electrical system, but can’t fit in the flat panels with funny connecting tubes... more likely cooling system for electrical heat generation...

 

[BOBTHEJOCKEY]

Exactly! The big three American automakers fight tooth and nail for every little percentage point of market share they can get. Sometimes they lose a little market share to a competitor, sometimes they gain one percent (or maybe 1/2 a percent). Then, along comes Tesla, growing at rates well above 50% growth, it's like the ENTIRE car market could be theirs for the taking. Then they will announce their pick-up truck. Of course the other OEMs are running scared.

As long as Tesla continues to have strong profit margins on units sold, and they continue to rapidly gain market share, GAAP profits don't matter! That's why growth companies don't need to pay dividends, the "profit" is the annual increase in enterprise value.

That said, I agree with those who think Tesla should temper growth just enough to show enough profit for two quarters to gain inclusion into the S&P500. It's a tricky needle to thread because tempering growth now could have big costs (in terms of smaller profits and market share) in three to six more years. But the stability that will come with inclusion in the SP500 is probably worth it. This is something TSLA investors should be looking forward to and I hope TSLA can pull it off. I think they can.

Exactly! The big three American automakers fight tooth and nail for every little percentage point of market share they can get. Sometimes they lose a little market share to a competitor, sometimes they gain one percent (or maybe 1/2 a percent). Then, along comes Tesla, growing at rates well above 50% growth, it's like the ENTIRE car market could be theirs for the taking. Then they will announce their pick-up truck. Of course the other OEMs are running scared.

As long as Tesla continues to have strong profit margins on units sold, and they continue to rapidly gain market share, GAAP profits don't matter! That's why growth companies don't need to pay dividends, the "profit" is the annual increase in enterprise value.

That said, I agree with those who think Tesla should temper growth just enough to show enough profit for two quarters to gain inclusion into the S&P500. It's a tricky needle to thread because tempering growth now could have big costs (in terms of smaller profits and market share) in three to six more years. But the stability that will come with inclusion in the SP500 is probably worth it. This is something TSLA investors should be looking forward to and I hope TSLA can pull it off. I think they can.

There are some that say Tesla isn't growing fast enough.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla's Brand Value Jumped 60% In 2018 | CleanTechnica


7th most valuable Auto Brand in the World.