Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[ZeApelido]

Frenchboy:
For you to have 100% of every penny/Euro that you have in ANY one stock is a huge risk, and especially any stock that is volatile. Sure -- you can make a fortune by being so heavily concentrated, but you can also see massive losses. Understand that I am not limiting my comments to TSLA, as there are loads and loads of volatile stocks out there and the same rule apply. As a former licensed stock broker, taking such an approach is not investing, it is gambling. An investor diversifies into 30 - 40 different stocks so as to not get wiped out if the market moves against him. Also, I'm not knocking TSLA stock as I've traded in it and made money, so don't think that I'm bashing the company. I'm simply saying that 100% concentration is incredibly risky in any 1 stock.

Absolutely right. Diversify in at least one other high-potential asset.

He should invest 30% in Bitcoin

 

[Driver Dave]

Wow. He is so wrong, and yet so convinced. Delivery estimate miss aside - "No moat" while traditional automakers with the "experience moat" struggle to compete with a six-year old Model S. "Demand has peaked" as the company has a record number of deliveries and guides for an increased backlog coming out of the quarter, new product launches notwithstanding. "Losing a ton of money" despite likely maintaining margins that are the envy of the automotive world (for ICE cars, let alone EVs) whilst building out infrastructure, manufacturing facilities, and expanding product offerings. "Elon Musk is untrustworthy"; the only thing I can peg the guy is for being relentlessly optimistic, otherwise he almost always holds true to his word.

This is just delusional.

There is an analysis you could do on Tesla that would support, or at least justify, a (wrong, but fair) short position.

This is definitely not that.

It reads like he collected click bait articles and made them into an investment strategy.

 

[ZeApelido]

OT :

If the White House control switches in '20, there is a significant chance of heightened tensions with Russia along with some kind of economic sanctions. They have been trying to mess with western democracies with impunity - and that is less likely to go unchallenged. So, compared to China and any EU countries, Russia is much more of a political risk.

If only there was some way to choke Mother Russia's main economic exports, by reducing demand for them...

 

[JusRelax]

Here's a 2-year view. It's never been setup this nicely, a decent earnings report/call and things are going to look very grim indeed - already 8-9million shares underwater at this SP.

Note that this does not account for share dilution that occurred within the past two years.

 

[ZeApelido]

Russia now ranks 31 (out of 190 countries) in the "Ease of doing business" survey. China is #46. Russia would love to produce Teslas and they are much less likely to steal our tech.

Vladimir, is that you?

 

[Rarity]

Because the story is Tesla is dying because it isn't profitable. Making consistent profits makes Tesla viable long-term, wherein they eat the lunch of the big ICEmakers if they don't compete. Stockholders will abandon them like dying dogs.

The tension is that Tesla is making the transition to a scale business. In the near future, Tesla will be making its profit based on that scale (or losing money because of the lack of . Anything that lengthens that transition should be looked at warily.

That said, the growth rate in production of the Model 3 just about broke the company. Breaking the company should be avoided.

 

[samppa]

Frenchboy:
For you to have 100% of every penny/Euro that you have in ANY one stock is a huge risk, and especially any stock that is volatile. Sure -- you can make a fortune by being so heavily concentrated, but you can also see massive losses. Understand that I am not limiting my comments to TSLA, as there are loads and loads of volatile stocks out there and the same rule apply. As a former licensed stock broker, taking such an approach is not investing, it is gambling. An investor diversifies into 30 - 40 different stocks so as to not get wiped out if the market moves against him. Also, I'm not knocking TSLA stock as I've traded in it and made money, so don't think that I'm bashing the company. I'm simply saying that 100% concentration is incredibly risky in any 1 stock.

At 26 yrs old you can take such a risk easily.. if I was 26 I'd go all-in TSLA any day.

Not advice

 

[ZeApelido]

The debacle of my IRA rollover transfer continues. I have enough to buy another 70 or so share in the ether as the stock price rises when I should have had it available to buy at $180.

NOT happy with you, Vanguard

 

[urarthur]

Almost $250! IF we break 250, it's an easy ride up to 275 until ER.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

Here is the factset consensus on Jul-11. Note this is non-GAAP, as always.

Tesla to report Q2 results on July 24



My mid estimate is 31 cents loss on sales of $6.2B.

@luvb2b's estimate is 66 cents loss on sales of $6.4B. ​

I remember someone posted a table for distribution of Tesla ER dates and the ER performance (beat and miss), and it shows the early ER dates are related to good numbers... I couldn't find it now... Does someone have it? Thanks!

 

[T@oo]

Is green good? I vote yes.

Personal observation. Beeing a TSLA owner for 6 years and Tesla owner for a month now (P3D), I had some nice conversations already and some hilarious test rides. Usually when I mention "I start with a full car each day" and "producing 1 Liter of gas uses about 1.5 kwh just for the refinery"... you can hear the mechanical brains start to click clack. The more advanced brains start to hummm and eyes get brighter a bit.

 

[ZeApelido]

My good friend who lives back in Cleveland was texting me about maybe buying a Tesla, so of course I spent 45 minutes on the phone persuading him

Amusingly he went around Cleveland looking for other electric cars (Leaf, Kona, etc...) with the dealers saying they literally have none, and there's no demand for them in Ohio

After I cursed him out for considering other brands that aren't pushing the world to sustainable energy usage, he will now being a Model 3.

And this dude is a frugal MFer.

HAHA. After I mocked my friend for having a gas car, and eviscerated him for considering a Leaf, the dude has ordered a Tesla. And his cheap arse - this is a guy who would right down every item purchase to divide by 2 when we lived together - has decided to buy a LR AWD.

And is installing a solar array.

Change is coming guys

Oh and P.S. he texted me 'Thanks for the 'encouragement' on the car"

 

[Artful Dodger]

Another huge sell order - 333k shares, SP does nothing, then starts climbing like a champ. WTF?

We've discussed this since Apr 24. For example:

Noticed it too, has the signature of an "arranged trade": where seller offers the shares in the open market as a 500,000 shares sell limit order at a prearranged moment and buyer who coordinates with the seller immediately consumes that limit order. It's usually done in quiet periods of the trading day.

This is often preferred to OTC trades which are more difficult to price.

The advantage is price discovery without slippage, plus a marketplace transaction that removes trust issues.

Also today at 2:31 pm, somebody bought 500,000 shares of TSLA ($130M worth). I have never seen that kind of single minute volume, even during the 'Boomberg bair-raid' last Fall.

Somebody knows something** (Not an Advice).

Date	VWAP	Volume	Trade$
2019-04-23 14-30	$263.16	4,172	$1,097,903.52
2019-04-23 14-31	$263.57	503,635	$132,743,076.95
2019-04-23 14-32	$263.70	13,924	$3,671,697.53

I also noticed that neither the SP or the volume changed much after that large sale, so the "somebody that knows something" is definately not me**.

The trade didn't affect the Order Book appreciably, so a prearranged sale then? Options executed? Ideas and/or explanations greatfully received, TIA.

Cheers!

 

[Tim S]

It's going to take very good margins and/or a much smaller-than-expected non-GAAP loss for that to happen, in my opinion.

Or improved 2019 guidance or confirmation of GF3 timetable.

 

[sparcs]

I remember someone posted a table for distribution of Tesla ER dates and the ER performance (beat and miss), and it shows the early ER dates are related to good numbers... I couldn't find it now... Does someone have it? Thanks!

That was already debunked by Fact Checking because of Q1 of this year. They moved up the date for Q1 too....

 

[Tslynk67]

We've discussed this since Apr 24. For example:

Maybe you're right, but it throws me eery time...

 

[Dutchie]

George Miner on Twitter

“Thank you Elon Musk and everyone at Tesla. Our model 3 was rear ended yesterday by someone going ~65 mph while we were just starting to move with stopped highway traffic. My two kids in the back are completely fine and my wife and I are just a little sore. You saved us”

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You and your wife just a little sore..
You better check that out with a doctor asap. I was rear ended almost ten years ago. I was also a little sore in the beginning. Three days later, however, I could not get out of bed, such an incredible pain in neck and head. The adrenaline rush passed and the real symptoms started kicking in.
Went to the doctor. First he gave me a week off. After going back to the Dr. he gave me another two weeks off. After that he gave me a month off etc.
Now, ten years later I am still at home. Fully disabled for work! I am still sore, especially in the afternoon, and still on medication. Need Botox injections every three months and additional lower back injections.

These rear-end collisions are no joke especially when you come out "a little sore" in the beginning!

 

[Cherry Wine]

I remember someone posted a table for distribution of Tesla ER dates and the ER performance (beat and miss), and it shows the early ER dates are related to good numbers... I couldn't find it now... Does someone have it? Thanks!

I've been maintaining that.

2016:
Q1: Announced 4/20 (LOL) / Held 5/4 (EPS: -2.13)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/3 (EPS: -2.09)
Q3: Announced 10/7 / Held 10/26 (EPS: 0.14)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/22 (EPS: -0.60)

2017:
Q1: Announced 4/13 / Held 5/3 (EPS: -2.04)
Q2: Announced 7/11 / Held 8/2 (EPS: -2.04)
Q3: Announced 10/19 / Held 11/1 (EPS: -3.70)
Q4: Announced 2/2 / Held 2/7 (EPS: -4.05)

2018:
Q1: Announced 4/19 / Held 5/2 (EPS: -4.19)
Q2: Announced 7/19 / Held 8/1 (EPS: -4.22)
Q3: Announced 10/22 / Held 10/24 (EPS: 1.75)
Q4: Announced 1/18 / Held 1/30 (EPS: 0.78)

2019:
Q1: Announced 4/11 / Held 4/24 (EPS: -4.10)
Q2: Announced 7/11 / Held 7/24 (EPS: ???)

Edit: Corrected a typo for Q1 '19 - EC announcement date was 4/11, not 1/18 as mistyped.

 

[Artful Dodger]

"producing 1 Liter of gas uses about 1.5 kwh just for the refinery"... you can hear the mechanical brains start to click clack.

Lol, not sure about the "advanced brain" part, but my online calculator tells me thats 28.9 miles/gallon(US) in a Model 3 SR (122 kwh/km)

CAFE standard for the entire US fleet is 27.5 mpg. So how do we explain this to our kids?

 

[Cherry Wine]

249.94...

EDIT: 250.00.