Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Right_Said_Fred]

Great article, needs more clicks too. Fittingly, Tesla should donate a Model S to Motor Trend, right next to their 1949 Kurtis Sports Car in the lobby. Reward honesty I say.

In summary, the cost of Shorting TSLA is just a drop in the "Expense" bucket for literally $2.75 Billion saved every day by oil tycoons who postpone the EV market. Then there's Energy in general...

So there are days when I wonder if the stock will ever rise again. It's like waiting for big oil to run out of shorting money. Whenever the stock drops, I assume Tesla must really be really scaring them now. If Tesla currently only represents 0.49% of the total auto market, what will shorting be like when it grabs just 5% of the auto market? (When, not if.)

So what turns this page? Will it be left up to voting out the corrupt gov't that protects these specific Shorts and the SEC? I really do think we need the movie soon, it might help move the needle. This has Michael Moore written all over it IMO.

And the Saudi part of the story - how do we know for sure that wasn't another Texaco-GM play in hiding? Hedging or Guarding? We really don't know, although that wasn't the public reason for not going private.

What turns this page? This does:

- Model 3 output reaching 10,000 per week after GF3 production catches steam.
- Start of mass production of the more profitable Model Y.
- Energy storage deployment tripling yoy (megapack)
- Solar roof reaching production of 1,000 roofs per week.
- FCA paying Tesla $1.7 billion.
- Tesla introducing a wicked pickup that is the coolest car on earth and that everyone wants.
- Semi production starting up.
- Tesla showing a clear path to 2 TWh of battery production capacity.
- Tesla showing a clear path to better, lighter and cheaper batteries (Maxwell).
- Tesla improving hugely on FSD and - bonus - maybe even attaining level 5.
- Tesla improving service.

And ALL of this will be happening in 2020!!

So we just have to hang in there for one more year (or sooner if the market opens it eyes).

I will sell my shares at 420*

* After a 10-for-1 split

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

What turns this page? This does:

- Model 3 output going to 10,000 per week after GF3 production catches steam.
- Start of mass production of the more profitable Model Y.
- Energy storage deployment tripling yoy (megapack)
- Solar roof reaching production of 1,000 roofs per week.
- FCA paying Tesla $1.7 billion.
- Tesla introducing a wicked pickup that is the coolest car on earth and that everyone wants.
- Semi production starting up.
- Tesla showing a clear path to 2 TWh of battery production capacity.
- Tesla showing a clear path to better, lighter and cheaper battery tech (Maxwell).
- Tesla improving hugely on FSD and -bonus - maybe even attaining level 5.
- Tesla improving service.

And ALL of this will be happening in 2020!!

So we just have to hang in there for one more year (or sooner if the market opens it eyes).

I will sell my shares at 420*

* After a 10-for-1 split

It really is crazy what's in store for this stock over the course of the next 16 months. Just crazy. I don't think I've ever seen a disconnect like this between current valuation and future 1-2 year valuation.

 

[Foghat]

The problem with range is that it's not free. Perhaps one day with Maxwell's magic dry diode plus an ease of mining materials can yield us very low cost range increase, the current state is that it's very costly to increase range. You have to add more weight to the car, reduce margins, increase price, and reduce production in a cell limited world.

So Tesla is selling well having a 250 mile + range. Would there be more demand at 400 miles? Yes...but then you hit the diminishing in return even at 400 miles because that Model 3 would be 60k vs 40k. It's a balancing act trying to displace as many ICE miles as possible and Tesla is the only company that focuses on doing this. Yes..they are working on trying to spur up more demand with more range, but they are careful when it comes to adding on more cost to the customers by doing so.

By releasing a Model S 600 mile LR version that cost 120k is not helping anyone. Displacing a few cars bought by the 1 percenters in a cell limited world is going against the overall mission. Now if cells were falling out of the sky and there are plenty to go around, then yes hit as many market segments as you can.

The maxwell deal is about the entire process, not just the cell itself. Efficiency at scale.

The real constraint has to do with scale. Scale is the challenge. Long term demand is global in reach, an addressable market that is all users of ground transport as well as anyone using electricity for any product or service.

From a scale perspective, any minor advancement in any part of the process could have meaningful implications for product value for consumers within that vey broad addressable market.

In the case of creating a pricy 600 mile range model s or roadster, it fits the strategy Elon set out on from the very beginning of high cost of new tech, which then becomes low cost at scale with iterations along the way. Any new tech has high cost at on set.

The difference between Elon’s statement then and the reality now, is that Tesla has a bit of scale with this new tech and can make contractual commitments in the supply chain now that can scale that new tech much much quicker and bring it to the broader market quicker, which again leads to cell constraints.

 

[Unpilot]

What turns this page? This does:

- Model 3 output going to 10,000 per week after GF3 production catches steam.
- Start of mass production of the more profitable Model Y.
- Energy storage deployment tripling yoy (megapack)
- Solar roof reaching production of 1,000 roofs per week.
- FCA paying Tesla $1.7 billion.
- Tesla introducing a wicked pickup that is the coolest car on earth and that everyone wants.
- Semi production starting up.
- Tesla showing a clear path to 2 TWh of battery production capacity.
- Tesla showing a clear path to better, lighter and cheaper battery tech (Maxwell).
- Tesla improving hugely on FSD and -bonus - maybe even attaining level 5.
- Tesla improving service.

And ALL of this will be happening in 2020!!

So we just have to hang in there for one more year (or sooner if the market opens it eyes).

I will sell my shares at 420*

* After a 10-for-1 split

Sigh...and yet another week long

 

[roblab]

So Tesla is selling well having a 250 mile + range. Would there be more demand at 400 miles? Yes...but then you hit the diminishing in return even at 400 miles because that Model 3 would be 60k vs 40k.

By releasing a Model S 600 mile LR version that cost 120k ....

The 370 mile range of the new Model S (Not 600) is right at your magic 400 mile demand limit. And it costs 70K before you add all your desired bits and pieces, not 120K. Just thought you'd like to know....

With the Model 3 at 320 miles range, it also is above your 250 mile magic number. And the price is near 50K with nice bells and whistles. I think your numbers are off, or that you just want to make a point. To be honest, most gas cars have a less than 300 mile range, especially when you start talking about pickups or big cars like the Caddy and Cheby. No one has needed a 600 mile range with at-home charging, 80 amp chargers at motels, and supercharging every hundred miles or so, except, obviously, where you live, in the "US". Which is exactly where I live. I put on nearly 30,000 miles a year with no problems at all, easy charging when on trips, cheap fuel in the convenience of my garage, no oil changes. Life is rough.

And you have no idea how much a 400 mile range 3 would cost. Sounds like sour grapes.

 

[Speedr117]

Yes, because that is the Tesla sedan in the $80k plus class.

Like Tesla, Taycan will first sell its premium version first starting at $120k-$130k but will eventually go down to $80k.

What a 2 door sports car in the $200k-$250k price class does is less relevant to Taycan's sales prospects.

Porsche reducing price...that's funny! Never going to happen...

 

[Singuy]

The 370 mile range of the new Model S (Not 600) is right at your magic 400 mile demand limit. And it costs 70K before you add all your desired bits and pieces, not 120K. Just thought you'd like to know....

With the Model 3 at 320 miles range, it also is above your 250 mile magic number. And the price is near 50K with nice bells and whistles. I think your numbers are off, or that you just want to make a point. To be honest, most gas cars have a less than 300 mile range, especially when you start talking about pickups or big cars like the Caddy and Cheby. No one has needed a 600 mile range with at-home charging, 80 amp chargers at motels, and supercharging every hundred miles or so, except, obviously, where you live, in the "US". Which is exactly where I live. I put on nearly 30,000 miles a year with no problems at all, easy charging when on trips, cheap fuel in the convenience of my garage, no oil changes. Life is rough.

And you have no idea how much a 400 mile range 3 would cost. Sounds like sour grapes.

I think you and I are making the same argument here.

 

[EVNow]

What turns this page? This does:

- Model 3 output going to 10,000 per week after GF3 production catches steam.
- Start of mass production of the more profitable Model Y.
- Energy storage deployment tripling yoy (megapack)
- Solar roof reaching production of 1,000 roofs per week.
- FCA paying Tesla $1.7 billion.
- Tesla introducing a wicked pickup that is the coolest car on earth and that everyone wants.
- Semi production starting up.
- Tesla showing a clear path to 2 TWh of battery production capacity.
- Tesla showing a clear path to better, lighter and cheaper battery tech (Maxwell).
- Tesla improving hugely on FSD and -bonus - maybe even attaining level 5.
- Tesla improving service.

And ALL of this will be happening in 2020!!

So we just have to hang in there for one more year (or sooner if the market opens it eyes).

I will sell my shares at 420*

* After a 10-for-1 split

I feel none of these matter as such. What will turn the page is profit - 2 or more quarters of it. That can happen because of any number of things that you have listed or nothing at all. Essentially, the market no longer cares about Musk's future predictions - they want to see the P&L. So things like semi production starting or "clear path to 2 TWh" or "path to cheaper battery" etc will just impress longs and bears will think it is just a lot of hot air.

Only thing that can potentially make a big difference is ...

- Tesla improving hugely on FSD and -bonus - maybe even attaining level 5.


​

 

[hobbes]

The Model S still has some pitfalls when it comes to performance. Many people still point to overheating, can’t make it around Nuremberg, etc.

Rated this funny because:
- Nuremberg=Nürnberg=German City - easy to make it around
- Nürburg-Ring Nordschleife=Nürburg loop (Northern part)=Race Track (very hilly), hard to make it around - I tried on a bicycle and hit over 55mph on a downhill

 

[EVNow]

In market news - today was essentially a big battle over 235. Looks like neither side really won. We are back to where we were at Friday close.

ps : Closing at 235.00 (up 2.62%), Nasdaq up 1.95%. Low volume ~ 5M.

 

[elasalle]

In market news - today was essentially a big battle over 235. Looks like neither side really won. We are back to where we were at Friday close.

ps : Closing at 235.00 (up 2.62%), Nasdaq up 1.95%. Low volume ~ 5M.

MF's pegging it at 235 ( draw)

 

[EVNow]

MF's pegging it at 235 ( draw)

Yes - its funny. It just Tuesday and they are acting like its Friday. BTW, maxpain is 235

 

[Artful Dodger]

The maxwell deal is about the entire process, not just the cell itself. Efficiency at scale.

The real constraint has to do with scale. Scale is the challenge. Long term demand is global in reach, an addressable market that is all users of ground transport as well as anyone using electricity for any product or service.

From a scale perspective, any minor advancement in any part of the process could have meaningful implications for product value for consumers within that vey broad addressable market.

In the case of creating a pricy 600 mile range model s or roadster, it fits the strategy Elon set out on from the very beginning of high cost of new tech, which then becomes low cost at scale with iterations along the way. Any new tech has high cost at on set.

The difference between Elon’s statement then and the reality now, is that Tesla has a bit of scale with this new tech and can make contractual commitments in the supply chain now that can scale that new tech much much quicker and bring it to the broader market quicker, which again leads to cell constraints.

"What really matters to accelerate a sustainable future is being able to scale up production volume as quickly as possible. That is why Tesla engineering has transitioned to focus heavily on designing the machine that makes the machine -- turning the factory itself into a product."

Elon Musk, Secret Master Plan (just between you and me), July 20, 2016​

 

[Nocturnal]

The Taycan may have better brake pads from the factory when it comes to track driving, which might end up the deciding factor for who can do how many laps in what time when comparing to Model S or 3 Performance. The Teslas might end up limited by their ability to slow down reliably for corners, thus forcing them to reduce speed in the straights. Track appropriate brake pads are probably the easiest way to beat Tesla at the track, rather than superior drive train, as long as you specify the comparison as endurance rather than single lap time.

Which is easy to do if you are targeting a niche market. Tesla's cars have broader appeal.

I think the increased regen of Track Mode and the larger brakes and discs of the P3D are sufficient. Even the Porche needs to come with brake pad composition that is suitable for street driving on public roads.

Just an anecdote but my stock front P3D pads glazed over and were shot after 2 track events. They didn't have any in stock so I went with an upgraded front set. I do assume the Porsche pads will be slightly better, but I'm also sure the Taycan price tag will be far higher. ​

 

[SOULPEDL]

What turns this page? This does:

- Model 3 output going to 10,000 per week after GF3 production catches steam.
- Start of mass production of the more profitable Model Y.
- Energy storage deployment tripling yoy (megapack)
- Solar roof reaching production of 1,000 roofs per week.
- FCA paying Tesla $1.7 billion.
- Tesla introducing a wicked pickup that is the coolest car on earth and that everyone wants.
- Semi production starting up.
- Tesla showing a clear path to 2 TWh of battery production capacity.
- Tesla showing a clear path to better, lighter and cheaper battery tech (Maxwell).
- Tesla improving hugely on FSD and -bonus - maybe even attaining level 5.
- Tesla improving service.

And ALL of this will be happening in 2020!!

So we just have to hang in there for one more year (or sooner if the market opens it eyes).

I will sell my shares at 420*

* After a 10-for-1 split

No matter what, I'm long as well. I'm just piping down my expectations a bit. I can see a nice rise when FSD kicks in as well, but then the FUD will be about trust or something else fearful.

So I'll just keep playing $TSLA plane ol' stocks on the side with about 20% holdings during these (nearly predictable) swings, and do my best towards sanity in the 2020 US Elections... if it means door to door again. Anything pro EPA, BEV, Alt Energy, Tax Incentives will get my vote. Besides, I'd rather park my money with Tesla than nearly any stock at this point - at least it supports a critical mission. And there are many days when the market drops while Tesla rises. So maybe this is the smartest place for money anyway. I think so.

 

[Tslynk67]

F1 is still faster at 0-60 1.6 sec vs 1.9 for a roadster. Roadster with rocket boosters may change this and of course can't be used to race formula 1. Also F1 cars doesn't need all the safety features either.

Although F1 cars don't actually accelerate *that* fast, they brake much better than any road car - 0 - 100mph - 0 in < 5 seconds, it will corner better than any road car, due to the ridiculous downforce (in theory can drive upside down due to this), and it is probably the safest car to have a crash in thanks to the carbon-fibre monocoque and excellent harness/HANS device.

Kubica's Montreal crash always springs to mind when talking about F1 safety - he walked away from this with a few bruises...

 

[MP3Mike]

Now if cells were falling out of the sky and there are plenty to go around, then yes hit as many market segments as you can.

But Tesla is planning to scale cell availability to coincide with their product launches. So we don't need cells to fall out of the sky, they will just make them as they need them. (Which no other car manufacturer is currently planning to do, they have to go to other suppliers and beg for cells.)

 

[Tslynk67]

The Taycan may have better brake pads from the factory when it comes to track driving, which might end up the deciding factor for who can do how many laps in what time when comparing to Model S or 3 Performance. The Teslas might end up limited by their ability to slow down reliably for corners, thus forcing them to reduce speed in the straights. Track appropriate brake pads are probably the easiest way to beat Tesla at the track, rather than superior drive train, as long as you specify the comparison as endurance rather than single lap time.

Sorry, but what %age of car buyers make their choice dependant on track times? It must be so close to zero as to be meaningless.

 

[willw64]

It really is crazy what's in store for this stock over the course of the next 16 months. Just crazy. I don't think I've ever seen a disconnect like this between current valuation and future 1-2 year valuation.

I get the skepticism to a degree and every company is a short at one time or another for a whole host of reasons. One reason to temper views on Tesla in the near term is that the auto business isn't great for anyone. However, there isn't an auto/quasi tech company which has the potential upside as Tesla, especially at the current market cap. The risk-reward trade off is what baffles me most about the continuous onslaught of short sellers.

Tesla is trying to solve a very hard problem, maybe they will fall short of full FSD, but even if they only get to Level 3+ there is still a ton more value creation ahead.

 

[Tslynk67]

Great article, needs more clicks too. Fittingly, Tesla should donate a Model S to Motor Trend, right next to their 1949 Kurtis Sports Car in the lobby. Reward honesty I say.

In summary, the cost of Shorting TSLA is just a drop in the "Expense" bucket for literally $2.75 Billion saved every day by oil tycoons who postpone the EV market. Then there's Energy in general...

So there are days when I wonder if the stock will ever rise again. It's like waiting for big oil to run out of shorting money. Whenever the stock drops, I assume Tesla must really be really scaring them now. If Tesla currently only represents 0.49% of the total auto market, what will shorting be like when it grabs just 5% of the auto market? (When, not if.)

So what turns this page? Will it be left up to voting out the corrupt gov't that protects these specific Shorts and the SEC? I really do think we need the movie soon, it might help move the needle. This has Michael Moore written all over it IMO.

And the Saudi part of the story - how do we know for sure that wasn't another Texaco-GM play in hiding? Hedging or Guarding? We really don't know, although that wasn't the public reason for not going private.

The day will come where Tesla are selling so many cars and are so profitable, that the shorts and FUDsters will be out of the game. I personally think we'll see that in 1H2020.

Edit: What the grumpy mod said...