Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Remus]

another day, another car fire, no body got excited, cause it is not a Tesla
San Jose Fire Dept. on Twitter

 

[Green Pete]

"...We need to ramp up production, we need to supply powertrain to other car companies..."

This was 2012. Don't know if plans has changed but he called for other companies to make more gigafactories because he said Tesla cannot do this alone. He got laughed at about the gigafactory idea vs other manufactures embracing it. He was throwing some shade about the matter Q3 2018 conference call. Now with his plan on terawatt hrs of batteries, I think it's safe to say Tesla is taking matters into their own hands.

I think the potential for Tesla to be a service company rather than a manufacturer had not yet been realized. As such the long term business plan changed.

 

[Skryll]

"...We need to ramp up production, we need to supply powertrain to other car companies..."

This was 2012. Don't know if plans has changed but he called for other companies to make more gigafactories because he said Tesla cannot do this alone. He got laughed at about the gigafactory idea vs other manufactures embracing it. He was throwing some shade about the matter Q3 2018 conference call. Now with his plan on terawatt hrs of batteries, I think it's safe to say Tesla is taking matters into their own hands.

There was the Toyota RAV4 EV with tesla technology in it, but then some oil company bought the battery maker and that was the end of that. Things could be different now that tesla could supply it all.

 

[Singuy]

Tesla does not and will not have 100% EV market share.

I'm not expecting them to because I'm expecting another company somewhere out there that will one day have all 6/6. That day is not today or not even the next 2 years. Until then, Tesla will continue to dominate while CEOs from major legacy manufactures like BMW cries about how no one wants EVs.

 

[wipster]

"...We need to ramp up production, we need to supply powertrain to other car companies..."

This was 2012. Don't know if plans has changed but he called for other companies to make more gigafactories because he said Tesla cannot do this alone. He got laughed at about the gigafactory idea vs other manufactures embracing it. He was throwing some shade about the matter Q3 2018 conference call. Now with his plan on terawatt hrs of batteries, I think it's safe to say Tesla is taking matters into their own hands.

They were in fact (I think) actually providing powertrains to Mercedes for use in the first generation electric Smart cars and electric Mercedes-Benz B-Class in the not too distant past were they not, when Mercedes was still a stockholder?

 

[MP3Mike]

"...We need to ramp up production, we need to supply powertrain to other car companies..."

This was 2012. Don't know if plans has changed but he called for other companies to make more gigafactories because he said Tesla cannot do this alone. He got laughed at about the gigafactory idea vs other manufactures embracing it. He was throwing some shade about the matter Q3 2018 conference call. Now with his plan on terawatt hrs of batteries, I think it's safe to say Tesla is taking matters into their own hands.

First, that isn't the Master plan. Second as I recall they already did that with both Toyota and Mercedes, and it didn't really work out. Third, that was back when they thought they could use a supplier for battery cells. (Panasonic/Samsung) And that hasn't worked out well either.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

another day, another car fire, no body got excited, cause it is not a Tesla
San Jose Fire Dept. on Twitter

Was stuck in a huge traffic jam this morning that stretched for kilometres. When I finally made it to the cause, it was a Dodge Ram in flames on the shoulder. It won’t make the local news, much less international news. I’ve come to truly despise the media.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Re charging infrastructure, it’s more than just where and how many stalls.

Tesla policy is that the supercharger network will never be a profit centre.

I think this is important and should be spelled out more often. It leads to the freedom effect. People buy a Tesla and THEN realise they can go anywhere for a fraction of the cost of an ICE road trip. Suddenly they start going places, just because they can, free of pollution guilt and wallet drain guilt.

Other charging networks exist, but afaik, they aim to sell you kWh for a profit. Why would anybody choose to assist them in that endeavour?

 

[Krugerrand]

"...We need to ramp up production, we need to supply powertrain to other car companies..."

This was 2012. Don't know if plans has changed but he called for other companies to make more gigafactories because he said Tesla cannot do this alone. He got laughed at about the gigafactory idea vs other manufactures embracing it. He was throwing some shade about the matter Q3 2018 conference call. Now with his plan on terawatt hrs of batteries, I think it's safe to say Tesla is taking matters into their own hands.

That changed a few years ago. Elon wants to kill them now.

 

[HG Wells]

Was stuck in a huge traffic jam this morning that stretched for kilometres. When I finally made it to the cause, it was a Dodge Ram in flames on the shoulder. It won’t make the local news, much less international news. I’ve come to truly despise the media.

Well, maybe we could try this.

Exploding car stops Tesla in its tracks !

 

[Singuy]

First, that isn't the Master plan. Second as I recall they already did that with both Toyota and Mercedes, and it didn't really work out. Third, that was back when they thought they could use a supplier for battery cells. (Panasonic/Samsung) And that hasn't worked out well either.

So you don't think supplying batteries to all car manufactures will not be part of the mission? If Tesla can hit 2TH battery production in 2025 using Maxwell tech for example, you don't think some of these batteries will be sold off to other car companies as they are struggling to ramp production due to cell shortage from LG?

 

[Alphacrux]

Ridiculous comments on the WSJ article:
GM, Volkswagen Say Goodbye to Hybrid Vehicles

I'm having fun trolling the trolls with my responses:

----

TROLL:

"I own a hybrid, have owned two others, and an electric. Never again an electric.

Our summer temperatures are over 100F for most of four months a year. This hits batteries hard, with range decreased by up to 50%. Charging stations aren't that close together. And sitting there re-charging in that heat is slow torture.

Even if they were they will be only along heavily traveled routes. Gas stations are common as dirt, almost everywhere.

Maybe in Europe, or for a car never expected to leave a city, but not for travelling North America.

------

My reply to the TROLL:

"I own two electrics exclusively (Teslas) and owned gas cars until 2015. Never again a gas car.

Our summer temperatures in Texas are over 100F for most of four months a year. This does NOT hit batteries hard. I have experienced NO range degradation in the heat in multiple road trips along I-10 and I-8 to San Diego. NO PROBLEMS charging in 108 degree heat at the Yuma, AZ Supercharger. Charging stations in Texas are close enough together along I-10 (every 2-3 hours) to make range anxiety a non-issue. And sitting there in the car for a few minutes in the heat is no problem in the well-functioning air-conditioned cabin.

Even in non-commonly traveled routes, Superchargers are common enough for charging to be a non-issue.

Maybe in North America or Europe, but not for traveling Antarctica.

 

[Off Shore]

So you don't think supplying batteries to all car manufactures will not be part of the mission? If Tesla can hit 2TH battery production in 2025 using Maxwell tech for example, you don't think some of these batteries will be sold off to other car companies as they are struggling to ramp production due to cell shortage from LG?

Wholesale to other manufacturers, or retail with *-packs? I agree--EM (and I) want(s) ICE OEMs dead.

 

[MP3Mike]

So you don't think supplying batteries to all car manufactures will not be part of the mission?

No, I do not. Part of the problem is that you can't just take any cells that are available. And at this point all of the major OEMs are going for pouch cells, which isn't what Tesla is going to make.

Just like Tesla said that they couldn't just buy cells from Samsung when Panasonic couldn't supply enough for the Model 3 because of homologation issues.

If Tesla can hit 2TH battery production in 2025 using Maxwell tech for example, you don't think some of these batteries will be sold off to other car companies as they are struggling to ramp production due to cell shortage from LG?

Elon said that they would ramp cell production to match car/storage production. As such there won't be extra cells just left laying around.

There might be a 1% chance that Tesla would supply some small OEM like Bollinger, but I even doubt that as they will be small enough that they will be able to get the cells they need from a traditional supplier.

 

[JusRelax]

Re charging infrastructure, it’s more than just where and how many stalls.

Tesla policy is that the supercharger network will never be a profit centre.

I think this is important and should be spelled out more often. It leads to the freedom effect. People buy a Tesla and THEN realise they can go anywhere for a fraction of the cost of an ICE road trip. Suddenly they start going places, just because they can, free of pollution guilt and wallet drain guilt.

Other charging networks exist, but afaik, they aim to sell you kWh for a profit. Why would anybody choose to assist them in that endeavour?

This is exactly what I'm finding after bringing home our Model X from Chicago to Los Angeles. After finding out how easy it is to road trip in a Tesla, my wife and I have determined to perform many more road trips in the future with our kids.

Disclosure: Our MX does have free supercharging, which may have factored into our determination.

 

[Zaxxon]

Early this year, Colorado Governor Polis issued an executive order directing the Colorado Air Quality Control Commission to work toward implementing a ZEV program, joining CO to CA and the other states that follow CA. There has been a lot of work going on since that time, and this week it's coming to a culmination in a series of AQCC meetings that began today. Today was (and will continue to be into the early evening) public comment taking by the Commission regarding the ZEV mandate and its role in CO. I attended earlier today and heard approximately 40 commenters within a packed room. They were nearly universally in support of joining the ZEV program (there was exactly one dissenter, who represented a natural gas group).

Tomorrow it will get even more interesting, as we'll hear from CDOT, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, several local government representatives from throughout the state, ChargePoint, Tesla, the Freedom to Drive group (anti-ZEV), the Colorado Auto Dealers Association (anti-ZEV), etc. For those interested, I would highly recommend reading the submissions thus far. There are a lot of hidden gems in there, including in Tesla's filings (such as the percentage of SUVs and trucks traded in to Tesla in Colorado for sedans, used to rebut a CADA point suggesting that EVs don't meet the needs of Coloradans).

The meeting tonight and tomorrow will be streamed via the AQCC's site.

I know this is ultimately small potatoes in the grand scheme of things (if implemented, the ZEV mandate would require around 6% of Colorado new light-duty vehicle sales from 2023-2030 to be PHEV or BEV), but it's an important step for Colorado, and one that Tesla is lobbying hard for as evidenced by their participation in these meetings and multiple statements to the committee.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Lol@abcnews with a hot car rescue taking up 3 minutes of national news the night after covering the Moscow explosion.....

.....no mention of "dog mode"

Shocking

 

[wipster]

Two points:
- When Tesla incorporates all the lessons they're learning in how to simplify building the cars (i.e., the new wiring harnesses to be used in the Y) and the improvements in the cars themselves (i.e., model 3 air conditioning, S & X battery utilization for enhanced mileage) plus improvements to come (i.e., incorporation of Maxwell tech), in the next few years their COGS will be markedly reduced, the production substantially increased, and the overall costs involved in building their cars reduced (which may either increase profit margin, decrease prices, or both), the future for the company looks as bright as the sun. And I didn't even mention the new models being introduced, the new markets being served, and Tesla Energy... well I guess I just did mention them.
- Even though there are a number of new BEV's coming out, don't forget they're being sold through dealer networks that don't want to sell them, plus as with almost all new vehicles being introduced, I anticipate a large amount of warranty work (at least initially) with a lot of staff not experienced with BEV's and this will seriously impact people's desire to buy them and push more potential customers to look at Tesla.

So while TSLA may go up and down in the near term, I believe my two points above will propel both Tesla and TSLA to a very bright future. I realize it's taking longer than many of us thought (myself included), but barring an apocalypse I'm more confident than ever that we will get there.

 

[Alphacrux]

Here's one more response to a troll (God! I wish I had time to do this all day!):

TROLL:

"GM and VW have never really made a desirable hybrid and that's probably not because they couldn't but because they have never "gotten" hybrids.

Full electrics may work as the primary vehicle in Europe, but in America most people want to own at least one car that is capable of a serious "road trip". Several times a year I do 1000 mile drives and such trips would be an exercise in frustration to me in a full electric. With and internal combustion vehicle--or at least one capable of that mode--I can pull up to a pump every 3 or 4 hundred miles, fill up and be on my way in a matter of minutes. No way could I do that in any existing or foreseeable electric (and that's assuming I could even find a recharging station at a convenient spot along the highway).

I just think the battery technology does not exist--and probably won't exist in my remaining lifetime--to be the heart of a practical American primary vehicle."

------

ME:

"I just think the battery technology does not exist--and probably won't exist in my remaining lifetime--to be the heart of a practical American primary vehicle."

>> Excuse me, are you already dead? Because a Tesla is ALREADY capable of being a practical American primary vehicle.

>> Let me rewrite that previous paragraph for you:

"Full electrics may work as the primary vehicle in Europe or America, but most people in Antarctica or on Mars want to own at lease one car that is capable of a serious road trip. Here on Earth, in America, I do 1300 mile drives from Texas to California and such trips are enjoyable in a Tesla. With a Tesla, I can pull up to a Supercharger every 100 or 200 miles, recharge, and be on my way in 15-20 minutes while I take a quick restroom or snack break. No way I could do that in any other EV other than a Tesla, because of the fast Supercharging stations placed at convenient intervals along the highway"

 

[wipster]

So you don't think supplying batteries to all car manufactures will not be part of the mission? If Tesla can hit 2TH battery production in 2025 using Maxwell tech for example, you don't think some of these batteries will be sold off to other car companies as they are struggling to ramp production due to cell shortage from LG?

Screw 'em



(just kidding)