Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

The FSD price increase is such nonsense. FSD is not compelling enough to discuss any price increases whatsoever. Completely boneheaded move by Elon. $7k for FSD in its current form is insane.

Uh, huh. The same way $29.67 was an insane SP for TSLA in 2012.

Sometimes, my friend, you need to have a little thing called foresight.

 

[anthonyj]

I wouldn’t hold my breath, especially regarding Apple/Berk taking a position. Already been discussed previously why Berk wouldn’t be interested in Tesla as it currently stands.

I know that they wouldn’t. I’m just saying that the stock needs some big names to buy a stake in order for investors to feel comfortable. Apparently Tencent/Musk/Ellison/Saudis aren’t enough

 

[AlexS]

SR+ officially in Norway Tesla Registration Stats

 

[humbaba]

GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a 'bigger fraud than Enron'

#NotTesla

looks like there might be ulterior motives?

GE pointed out that Markopolos gave an unnamed hedge fund he is working with access to the report ahead of time. Markopolos said he has given the report to securities regulators and that certain information he has uncovered has been given to law enforcement only, and is not in the public report.

A disclaimer on the website read: “Prior to the initial distribution of this Report on August 15, 2019, the Company entered into an agreement with a third-party entity to review an advanced copy of the Report in exchange for later-provided compensation. That compensation is based on a percentage of the profits resulting from the third-party entity’s positions in the securities, derivatives, and other financial instruments of, and/or relating to, General Electric Company (“GE”) (NYSE: GE). Those positions taken by the third-party entity are designed to generate profits should the price of GE securities decrease.”

 

[Krugerrand]

Does it still look rosy with massive government bail-out programs for the legacy OEMs?

That’s why I specified multiple OEMs and big ones. There’s always a chance multiple governments will attempt bailouts. There’s also just as likely a chance it’s too much for even that to happen. There comes a point in history when the people finally stand up and say that’s it, we’re not going to take it anymore. I sense that time approaching. If it doesn’t happen, kiss this planet goodbye.

A lot of the OEMs are going to die. It’s not if, it’s when. It’ll look like things will be fine right up and until they aren’t, and then it’ll go south overnight. It’ll be the straw that broke the camel’s back. People will wave their arms and jump up and down and swear they didn’t see it coming, how could this happen, omg!

So, it either looks rosy when all is said and done, or we become the dinosaurs.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Im surprised this has never come up before. I hear a ton about Waymo and Cruise, but I became aware of Zoox today and they seem to be a player that is still different than either of the former two but not Tesla's model either. Im surprised I've not seem much discussion on them.

Self-driving car startup Zoox gets permit to transport passengers in California – TechCrunch

Zoox has done some good work. Their twitter account regularly posts impressive clips (of course they don't show runs when things go wrong). I'd rate them ahead of GM/Cruise in terms of self-driving capability, but it's not clear they have a workable business model.

Michigan itself is not fairing well since Ohio gets most of the sales tax. On a 50k ASP, Ohio gets $2,875 and Michigan gets $125.
Dumb. That's the equivalent of income taxes on a resident earing >$60k a year.

That would be exceptionally dumb. Every state I know collects sales tax on new cars bought out of state. The out-of-state dealer usually handles it. The mechanisms vary from state to state, but I don't know of any state that lets you dodge sales tax by purchasing across the border.​

 

[bhtooefr]

Looks like this is a case of granting credit for sales tax already paid?

Some states allow you to not pay sales tax if you're registering out of state, some states give credit for sales tax paid to another state, and then there's some combinations where you end up having to pay both states' full sales tax.

 

[elasalle]

Might be stuck in this $180-260 trading range for a while. Q3 is likely to be spun as a “disaster” since the YoY growth will be small and Tesla will probably post another loss. Q4 might be a little better if they can recognize FSD revenue.

Two things that can really catapult this stock near term is if Apple/Buffett/etc report a stake in TSLA or if FSD actually comes out this year. Still at a good price for long term hold

EM/Jerome needs to write feel good email to employees and thrown in some GF3 updates and MY updates ...

 

[DocZ]

Uh, huh. The same way $29.67 was an insane SP for TSLA in 2012.

Sometimes, my friend, you need to have a little thing called foresight.

Yeah not at all the same thing. No way you’re actually arguing that $7k for autopilot in its current form is a good thing. Some vague promise of “at some point in the future FSD will actually be a thing” and “feature complete” is dumb AF. Elon is way ahead on the pricing and well below expectations on actual execution of FSD. Which hey I don’t blame them, it’s a difficult problem to solve. But don’t go saying dumb things about it and promising unrealistic things.

 

[KarenRei]

Yeah not at all the same thing. No way you’re actually arguing that $7k for autopilot in its current form is a good thing. Some vague promise of “at some point in the future FSD will actually be a thing” and “feature complete” is dumb AF. Elon is way ahead on the pricing and well below expectations on actual execution of FSD. Which hey I don’t blame them, it’s a difficult problem to solve. But don’t go saying dumb things about it and promising unrealistic things.

The problem with $7k for FSD is not just that it's a big ask for something that does so little. It's that it's such a large fraction of the vehicle price that it outright prices itself out of the market for most buyers. I've never spend $7k on an entire car before; Model 3 is already a massive stretch for me.

Everyone has a price cutoff, after which it becomes "I'll just drive myself." FSD has existed since the advent of vehicles, in the form of a chauffeur. Why doesn't everyone have a chauffeur? Because it's too dang expensive. Most people simply can't afford that. $7k is a lot cheaper than a chauffeur, but it's still pretty dang expensive for most people.

And currently it's $7k for a "not-a-chauffer-but-theoretically-will-become-one-some-day-if-we're-right-although-many-people-doubt-us".

 

[Matias]

7k is cheap for functioning FSD. It is outrageous for non functioning FSD.

 

[kengchang]

Might be stuck in this $180-260 trading range for a while. Q3 is likely to be spun as a “disaster” since the YoY growth will be small and Tesla will probably post another loss. Q4 might be a little better if they can recognize FSD revenue.

Two things that can really catapult this stock near term is if Apple/Buffett/etc report a stake in TSLA or if FSD actually comes out this year. Still at a good price for long term hold

I think the important metric to look for Q3 is increasing production and beat Q2 delivery while shrinking the loss or breakeven.

 

[Krugerrand]

I am thinking I would rather see some legacy OEMs go belly up in a booming economy, while Tesla is thriving. No excuses, clear message and evidence to support the mission.

In a perfect world -

We’re much more likely to get government interference to save in a booming economy than in desperate times, particularly if the desperation is a notch up from last time and more than one OEM is on the line.

I’d love for every human being to get their sugar together and be for all of us instead of themselves. Not going to happen. So shove them off a cliff into the ocean, I say, and then watch them sink or swim. I’m mean that way.

 

[humbaba]

Yeah not at all the same thing. No way you’re actually arguing that $7k for autopilot in its current form is a good thing. Some vague promise of “at some point in the future FSD will actually be a thing” and “feature complete” is dumb AF. Elon is way ahead on the pricing and well below expectations on actual execution of FSD. Which hey I don’t blame them, it’s a difficult problem to solve. But don’t go saying dumb things about it and promising unrealistic things.

$7k (although when I was just spec'ing a car it was $6k) is definitely more than I've seen for other manufacturer's driver assistance packages. However, not only is Tesla's driver assistance better than competitors it also is "future proofed" in that it will continue to get better.

For example, if you buy one of the two GM vehicles that can have supercruise added to it you get a (relatively) inferior driver assistance and one that will not improve over time. And you don't have to buy an expensive luxury vehicle just to have the option: even an M3SR can have FSD optioned which makes it relatively less expensive.

While I can certainly agree that pricing of driver assistance features is fuzzy I don't agree that it is clear cut that it is over priced.

[edit: to @KarenRei's point wrt to fraction of vehicle price? Sure. I get that. Getting my M3MR last year was very much a stretch for me and I did not spring for FSD until the pricing action in March. But the Leaf is the closest I know of to the price points. When I checked, the Rogue SL optioned for ProPilot was ~$36k with I think a Leaf coming in at ~$38k. So, yes, Tesla's FSD is more expensive. But it is also better and will be improved.]

 

[ggies07]

GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a 'bigger fraud than Enron'

#NotTesla

in the comments. WTF?

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Uh, huh. The same way $29.67 was an insane SP for TSLA in 2012.

Sometimes, my friend, you need to have a little thing called foresight.

What if Tesla sold FSD “options”. The option to buy FSD for $6000 in 2020 could cost $500 today.

 

[Drax7]

The Trade war creates instability which in turn affects the stock market
Stock market instability may lead to risk averse consumer behavior
Which in turn affects the real economy. The market
Is now warning Trump that escalation has consequences.

A small interest rate decrease has very marginal impact
In my view. Fed funds at 2.25 versus 1.75 appears
Immaterial in a purchasing decision either for
Consumption or investment.

Firms that have debt are more vulnerable in a recession.
Tesla is targeted as such I presume.

 

[Cherry Wine]

This would be huge -- but I won't hold my breath with the price tag that's being put on the bill. I expect it to die quietly in Appropriations. I hope I'm wrong.

So AB 1046 hasn't died, but the bill was definitely watered down -- now more of an intent bill and reliant upon later-enacted legislation to give the Treasurer authority to establish the funding.

Updated bill text here.

 

[Artful Dodger]

If they come with strings attached that lead to massive investments in future-proof clean coal.

Uh yeah, that's not a string attached, that's a fuse.

Cheers!

 

[KarenRei]

Vincent on Twitter

The long waiting lines to check out Tesla Model 3 in South Korea