Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[VValleyEV]

So this post prompted a conflicted thought: let’s just get this over and done with; rip the bandaid off and move on sooner rather than later.

Meaning: Bring on this supposed recession everyone’s been tip toeing about for the last year+, make it good enough to kill a few OEMs outright (yes, at least 3 of them preferably more and definitely the bigger the better) and whatever other dominos tumble because of them; a host of dealerships bye-bye and as a result various Automobile Associations, followed by the dissolving of a certain amount of political based power, gas stations, put a chink in oil, fuel shortages ala the good ole days, and so on.

Yes, would be ugly. A lot of people would suffer for a while, but we’re all suffering right now anyway. Just in other ways. On the other hand this would force many to retrain for new industries, schools to change their curriculum, all construction of homes and buildings to include solar and EV charging etc.... and cause an even more powerful wave of transition.

Tesla has already taken steps preparing for a recession as best any company could. They’d be one of the companies that survived I believe and an even more attractive investment.

Yes, painful to go through but potentially really rewarding on the other side. Sometimes. A lot of the time. People have to be shoved, dragged, and cajoled to take that first step through their stubbornness and fear. Once you get them moving, they often realize; ‘ Huh. This is actually awesome. I should have done this a pot sooner.’

Does it still look rosy with massive government bail-out programs for the legacy OEMs?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Some big boots jumped into the fish tank at 10:00 am. In 10 min until 10:10 am, there were 858,190 (858K) shares sold, while the price moved just $0.65

Company mad minute is over. BTW, about 7 seconds after the Opening, the lower BB was $212.81 (see chart below). Today's intraday low (so far)? $212.80 @ 09:43 ET. Jus' sayin'...

 

[humbaba]

With respect to FSD and its related features, I believe Tesla is pushing hard so that this quarter they can recognize revenue from EAP and partial from FSD. In particular, Musk has said advanced summon will be released ... I think the last date given was today, Aug 15th. And the last clarification I saw was that everybody who had paid for FSD would be considered an early adopter for this release.

Why would they do that unless they were trying to get an official "Advanced Summon is complete Q3"? And, whatever you think of the current state of autopilot and parking, the only remaining feature of EAP is advanced summon.

Since NoA is still listed as beta and advanced summon will be an "early adopter" release I believe that it too will only be listed as beta. I'm not all that knowledgeable on corporate financials, but would a "beta" tag obstruct recognition of revenue?

And, as far as FSD is concerned, the official feature set listed on the website was not all that risky the last time I checked. The only two features that are not listed as current are traffic lights/stop signs and AP on city streets. If Tesla pushes hard and releases as a beta -- which is consistent with other features -- then this is likely achievable by end of year (still requiring human supervision, naturally) which matches Musk's statement on the matter (feature complete by end of year) so the primary limiting factor will be getting HW3 into cars sold without it.

My point is that I believe Tesla is aiming for full EAP revenue recognition this quarter and FSD revenue recognition in Q4. If so, what impact (if any) would there be in the features being listed as beta? What would be the impact on financials? GAAP?

 

[Lessmog]

It's already happening here. Asheville Supercharger yesterday. Full with 7 M3's and my lowly MS.

View attachment 442011

Ah, beautiful color! (Same as mine , picked to mask the winter road dirt )
Agree with another poster, blue 3 is also pretty; saw one close up yesterday.

 

[willw64]

With respect to FSD and its related features, I believe Tesla is pushing hard so that this quarter they can recognize revenue from EAP and partial from FSD. In particular, Musk has said advanced summon will be released ... I think the last date given was today, Aug 15th. And the last clarification I saw was that everybody who had paid for FSD would be considered an early adopter for this release.

Why would they do that unless they were trying to get an official "Advanced Summon is complete Q3"? And, whatever you think of the current state of autopilot and parking, the only remaining feature of EAP is advanced summon.

Since NoA is still listed as beta and advanced summon will be an "early adopter" release I believe that it too will only be listed as beta. I'm not all that knowledgeable on corporate financials, but would a "beta" tag obstruct recognition of revenue?

And, as far as FSD is concerned, the official feature set listed on the website was not all that risky the last time I checked. The only two features that are not listed as current are traffic lights/stop signs and AP on city streets. If Tesla pushes hard and releases as a beta -- which is consistent with other features -- then this is likely achievable by end of year (still requiring human supervision, naturally) which matches Musk's statement on the matter (feature complete by end of year) so the primary limiting factor will be getting HW3 into cars sold without it.

My point is that I believe Tesla is aiming for full EAP revenue recognition this quarter and FSD revenue recognition in Q4. If so, what impact (if any) would there be in the features being listed as beta? What would be the impact on financials? GAAP?

I've been on audit committees, and usually those type of discussions are a tug of war between the CEO/board and the auditors and the overall policy/culture of being overly conservative vs pushing the envelope within acceptable lines. I would be shocked if milestones are not in place that will allow them to recognize revenue.

While there would certainly be a near term positive impact to earnings, IMO the more powerful impact will be in restoring confidence in Musk and the team, espeically with the C level management churn, and the longer term GM and revenue impact of current owners who haven't bought FSD and will do so. The ability to push a software product and generate revenue is the accelerant to Tesla's model vs legacy auto makers.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Musk's statement on the matter (feature complete by end of year) so the primary limiting factor will be getting HW3 into cars sold without it.

My point is that I believe Tesla is aiming for full EAP revenue recognition this quarter and FSD revenue recognition in Q4. If so, what impact (if any) would there be in the features being listed as beta? What would be the impact on financials? GAAP?

Q4 or Q1 make sense to me based on his tweet that FSD computer retrofits start in Q4
Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[Bobfitz1]

A. Competitors will not have the batteries

A. AP is the same for Model 3/S/X.

A. Macros .. who knows... it is wise to at least consider that a downturn/recession may happen.

In the long run, my view is downturns often act as a change accelerator, and Tesla is on the right side of the argument...

From the demo rides and video of same at Autonomy Day, I think most TMC members believe the next 18 months will bring really major improvements in Tesla's self driving. That progress doesn't need to be FSD level 4/5 to still be very impactful in differentiating Tesla EVs from all other ICE and EV cars. Tesla absolutely should conserve cash to survive and ride out a possible global recession.
However in a recession auto sales go way down but not to zero. I'm hopeful that if/when a global recession arrives Tesla will be far better positioned than all other automakers, because it's auto driving will be sufficiently amazing by then to be widely understood and valued.
It should be able to continue selling as many EVs as it can produce, while growing capacity more slowly until recession eases.

Wikipedia: Automotive industry crisis of 2008 - 2010.
"The annual capacity of the industry (was) 17 million cars; sales in 2008 dropped to an annual rate of only 10 million vehicles made in the U.S. and Canada."

 

[Unpilot]

My my my...I do love a sale.....yep buying some more....shh don't tell SO please...this will be about the 10th never again buy

 

[Sean Wagner]

Does it still look rosy with massive government bail-out programs for the legacy OEMs?

If they come with strings attached that lead to massive investments in future-proof clean coal.

 

[Tslynk67]

Unfortunately I have no dry-powder to add to my position, but I'm looking to do the same as Q2 and play the delivery report - so if SP stays stupid low, in about a month or so, lend myself enough to buy 30-40 shares, on the blind hope, sorry, reasonable assumption based on in-depth understanding of Tesla, that Q3 will be another record, then reclaim the borrowed money, yielding a handful of free shares.

I got 4 for free end of Q2.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Technically yes if Tesla did something like this the shorts could re-enter a short position after teh event again. However I think the theory goes like this:

1. Tesla announces spin off, will issue shares in new company to existing stockholders.
2. Shorts have to rebuy every share sold short as they are not able to supply the new spin off company shares to people they sold shares to.

This is where the theory dies. Short simply become short the spin off shares in addition to the original shares. Don't believe me? Here's a list of upcoming spinoffs. Short a few shares of one, sit back and watch. You won't have to cover, but one day a second short position will pop up in your account.

There are caveats relating to fractional shares and such, but that's basically how it works.

 

[VValleyEV]

—-
Meaning: Bring on this supposed recession everyone’s been tip toeing about for the last year+, make it good enough to kill a few OEMs outright (yes, at least 3 of them preferably more and definitely the bigger the better) and whatever other dominos tumble because of them; a host of dealerships bye-bye and as a result various Automobile Associations, followed by the dissolving of a certain amount of political based power, gas stations, put a chink in oil, fuel shortages ala the good ole days, and so on.
—-

Does it still look rosy with massive government bail-out programs for the legacy OEMs?

I am thinking I would rather see some legacy OEMs go belly up in a booming economy, while Tesla is thriving. No excuses, clear message and evidence to support the mission.

 

[ggies07]

Advantage point for autonomous cars: My school is going through construction growing pains and therefore the parking spots have been reduced. It's interesting to see all the commotion and stress on the faculty community because of this. If only FSD was here now, I could put my car into service for everyone....and others could use the Tesla network to get to work. Just a year or two off for when we needed it....

 

[Navin]

Selling some winners and rolling money into TESLA.. This is probably what they refer to when they say back up the truck..

 

[anthonyj]

Might be stuck in this $180-260 trading range for a while. Q3 is likely to be spun as a “disaster” since the YoY growth will be small and Tesla will probably post another loss. Q4 might be a little better if they can recognize FSD revenue.

Two things that can really catapult this stock near term is if Apple/Buffett/etc report a stake in TSLA or if FSD actually comes out this year. Still at a good price for long term hold

 

[pyromatter]

 

[Krugerrand]

This makes me so much more appreciative of posts by the likes of Papafox, Fact Checking, and so many ON Topic others that we all take for granted - we've had some surprising good pages of great posts in the last few days.

Sadly, the farther OFF Topic, the more positive responses. It's like how the History channel no longer does any history, just gold mining and insanely repetitious treasure hunt dramas.

Anyway, what's everyone's favorite brand of dry cat food*? Canned*? Shall make a database of our pets names*?

Edit- *If anyone MUST actually answer, please do so only in a new Forum you start for cats.

Interestingly enough, there are now more posts complaining about the cat food posts than there were actual posts about the cat food. Think about that for a second. The OT ran its course VERY quickly - like I actually only remember 5 or 6 posts specifically about it - now only being kept alive by complaining about it.

No, I didn’t start a new thread because its not a new topic, that topic being that rather than lead by example, its easier to just complain about what you don’t like.

Looking at the ticker, I see TSLA red with everything else green. Oh, what new and valuable thing can be said about TSLA going in the opposite direction of the rest of the market? Um...not a damn thing. SSDD.

 

[KarenRei]

GE shares tank more than 13% after Madoff whistleblower calls it a 'bigger fraud than Enron'

#NotTesla

 

[elasalle]

Selling some winners and rolling money into TESLA.. This is probably what they refer to when they say back up the truck..

Did some too, with some shuffling ...

 

[KSilver2000]

Two things that can really catapult this stock near term is if Apple/Buffett/etc report a stake in TSLA or if FSD actually comes out this year. Still at a good price for long term hold

I wouldn’t hold my breath, especially regarding Apple/Berk taking a position. Already been discussed previously why Berk wouldn’t be interested in Tesla as it currently stands.