Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Intl Professor]

The biggest policy mistake the Soviets made was that they didn't adopt capitalist policies for small and mid size corporations and didn't embrace private ownership (it was against their ideology). The Chinese didn't commit those mistakes and in some ways their economy is superior to neoliberal laissez-faire capitalist economies like the U.S.

After the Civil War, in which we participated, Lenin introduced the New Economic Policy (NEP) which permitted small industry and small farming. Then he died and later Stalin sugared everything up by collectivization.

 

[humbaba]

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Yeah, this reminds of... June I guess it was. @ihors3 said short interest was down despite it being obvious from the market action that it was up. And when the delayed short interest official numbers came out it turned out that @ihors3 numbers were very wrong. His numbers are based on secret sauce fed by the data they get from their connections and I suspect outside of a heavily manipulated stock it is pretty good.

But for $TSLA? If it is obvious that the stock is being beaten down by shorts and @ihors3 says otherwise expect a big revision to his data after the official numbers come out.*

I'm not sure that his numbers are as drastically wrong as they were before and I do appreciate that he provides these stats for free to all. They just need to be taken with a grain of salt and folks should not ignore what is going on. The current rise might be accumulation by a large investor and not shorts covering -- but I'm sure that there was a significant bump in short interest to knock the stock down to where it was and is now recovering from.

* Of course, since the official short interest numbers are intermittent snapshots if the shorts really do cover it all before the next snapshot then there wouldn't be a correction. What is needed is more transparent reporting of short activity. But that would go against the goals of the Shortseller Enrichment Committee so I'm not holding my breath.

 

[UncaNed]

TSLA is outperforming the NASDAQ-100 Index (NDX) by 3x today. Shortzies likely covering or largely sitting out today.

50-Day Moving Average: $232.16 (+0.46 since Friday)
Middle Bollinger Band: $234.11 (-1.21 since Friday)​

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I expect the MA(50) and the Mid-BB will converge between approx. 232.50-232.90 sometime tomorrow. This may touch off a round of selling unless News/Macros intervene.

Not an advice.

Cheers!

Thanks for the advice!

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yeah, this reminds of... June I guess it was. @ihors3 said short interest was down despite it being obvious from the market action that it was up. And when the delayed short interest official numbers came out it turned out that @ihors3 numbers were very wrong. His numbers are based on secret sauce fed by the data they get from their connections and I suspect outside of a heavily manipulated stock it is pretty good.

But for $TSLA? If it is obvious that the stock is being beaten down by shorts and @ihors3 says otherwise expect a big revision to his data after the official numbers come out.*

I'm not sure that his numbers are as drastically wrong as they were before and I do appreciate that he provides these stats for free to all. They just need to be taken with a grain of salt and folks should not ignore what is going on. The current rise might be accumulation by a large investor and not shorts covering -- but I'm sure that there was a significant bump in short interest to knock the stock down to where it was and is now recovering from.

* Of course, since the official short interest numbers are intermittent snapshots if the shorts really do cover it all before the next snapshot then there wouldn't be a correction. What is needed is more transparent reporting of short activity. But that would go against the goals of the Shortseller Enrichment Committee so I'm not holding my breath.

Don't forget that Ihor's has said multiple times he doesn't believe naked shorting is happening with Tesla stock

 

[Tim S]

So much for the "Tesla" killers.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Please include a brief summary when you post a link from Bloomberg. I'm not going to click on a link that says only "Bloomberg - are you a robot?". Thanks.

 

[humbaba]

Don't forget that Ihor's has said multiple times he doesn't believe naked shorting is happening with Tesla stock

Correct. He insists it is "a unicorn" and never happens with any stock.

Which is silly because it is a common practice to sell short first and then do the borrows later. In point of fact, contrary to investopedia, naked short selling is not illegal. Failure to deliver isn't even necessarily illegal. All you have to do is consult with the Shortseller Enrichment Committee rules and regulations. @ihors3 is simply wrong on this.

“Naked” short selling is not necessarily a violation of the federal securities laws or the Commission’s rules. Indeed, in certain circumstances, “naked” short selling contributes to market liquidity. For example, broker-dealers that make a market in a security[4] generally stand ready to buy and sell the security on a regular and continuous basis at a publicly quoted price, even when there are no other buyers or sellers. Thus, market makers must sell a security to a buyer even when there are temporary shortages of that security available in the market. This may occur, for example, if there is a sudden surge in buying interest in that security, or if few investors are selling the security at that time. Because it may take a market maker considerable time to purchase or arrange to borrow the security, a market maker engaged in bona fide market making, particularly in a fast-moving market, may need to sell the security short without having arranged to borrow shares. This is especially true for market makers in thinly traded, illiquid stocks as there may be few shares available to purchase or borrow at a given time.

Key Points About Regulation SHO

 

[madodel]

Step away. My news feed tells me I should short Tesla immediately. The news will be bad all the way to a million run rate next year and 10 billion in the bank.
Looking forward to Q3 deliveries and improved margins and how the shorts will spin what I expect will be good news.

Just more cars they can't sell and have to roll off those ships. Think of the environmental disaster that will create instead of those clean diesel cars.

 

[FreqFlyer]

Please include a brief summary when you post a link from Bloomberg. I'm not going to click on a link that says only "Bloomberg - are you a robot?". Thanks.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

First three paragraphs-

"
It’s a trope that’s been around roughly as long as Elon Musk has been in the car business: When a new electric vehicle is unveiled, it’s dubbed a potential “Tesla killer.”

But from the flaming-out of Fisker to present day, Tesla has largely dominated the American electric-vehicle market. Musk has even managed to expand the company’s preeminence over the still small segment despite two new battery-powered luxury SUVs arriving in U.S. showrooms the last 10 months: Jaguar’s I-Pace and Audi’s e-tron.

Their starts are the latest indications that legacy automakers aren’t assured instant success when they roll out new plug-in models. Tesla’s Model S and X have largely held its own against the two crossovers that offer shorter range and less plentiful public charging infrastructure. Jaguar and Audi also lack the cool factor Musk has cultivated for the Tesla brand by taking an aggressive approach to autonomy and using over-the-air software updates to add games and entertainment features."

 

[madodel]

Please include a brief summary when you post a link from Bloomberg. I'm not going to click on a link that says only "Bloomberg - are you a robot?". Thanks.

‘Tesla Killers’ Are Having A Really Hard Time Killing Tesla

 

[elasalle]

‘Tesla Killers’ Are Having A Really Hard Time Killing Tesla

Innocent & Harmless till proven guilty

 

[SpaceCash]

Of note, Etrade raised their margin requirements on tsla from 45% to 55% and just called me to make sure I'm aware, even though I'm in little danger

 

[elasalle]

Trump calls on Federal Reserve to cut interest rates
President Donald Trump is calling on the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by at least a full percentage point “over a fairly short period of time,” saying that such an action would make the U.S. economy even better and would also “greatly and quickly” enhance the global economy.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Of note, Etrade raised their margin requirements on tsla from 45% to 55% and just called me to make sure I'm aware, even though I'm in little danger

Can you take some profits?

 

[willw64]

Ron Barron on CNBC tomorrow morning 7:30am EST talking Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

No advertising? Elon Musk (@elonmusk) | Twitter 28M followers

That is preaching to the choir.

 

[Causalien]

Then the shorts make more money, in the short term. In a bear market or a bull market though, the important thing is relative performance. Money has to go somewhere and you have to consider customer demographics for Tesla. Look at Apple from 2007 - 2012 when the whole world was hurting - they basically grew 8x in that time after a 50% drop. Tesla will be less impacted by a downturn than say Ford or Toyota.

What will hurt them is if Tesla improve their margins significantly (ARK invest and others have predicted this will happen as early as Q3) - if Model 3 margins can increase from 17/18% to north of 25%, the shorts will be crushed. All the signals are that they indeed can actually do this, it's just a matter of when.

Margin improvements have been touted by management so long I have stopped considering them. I believe what happened is that they were planning for 10k / year at Fremont and that should bring them to 20% adding 5% from their own tweaks. However, Trump's trade war made them realize that instead of going ahead with a new line to bring in 3k more in USA, it is better to bring it up in China under these circumstances. The fact that Giga3 can be built in a year didn't seem like a possibility to them in 2018 so they didn't consider it, but the Chinese proved otherwise.

So, I do not agree with Ark's q3 estimate. That'd be true if TSLA stick to the original plan of building out a new line in USA, but we won't see this till Q1 next year when Giga 3 is fully online and operating at full speed of the new refurbished line.

 

[kengchang]

Margin improvements have been touted by management so long I have stopped considering them. I believe what happened is that they were planning for 10k / year at Fremont and that should bring them to 20% adding 5% from their own tweaks. However, Trump's trade war made them realize that instead of going ahead with a new line to bring in 3k more in USA, it is better to bring it up in China under these circumstances. The fact that Giga3 can be built in a year didn't seem like a possibility to them in 2018 so they didn't consider it, but the Chinese proved otherwise.

So, I do not agree with Ark's q3 estimate. That'd be true if TSLA stick to the original plan of building out a new line in USA, but we won't see this till Q1 next year when Giga 3 is fully online and operating at full speed of the new refurbished line.

Tesla is aiming to do ~8300/week from Fremont by end of this year, closer to the 10K than the 6K or 7K estimate than before which should helps with the fixed cost

 

[HG Wells]

The only real Tesla Killer.

NOTE: Radar absorbing paint.

 

[JRP3]

That is preaching to the choir.

Not until they're all customers, including all the people reading the tweets who aren't following.

 

[kengchang]

Not until they're all customers, including all the people reading the tweets who aren't following.

There are certainly less than 28M Tesla owner