Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

All right, I just want to warn you guys, I'm seeing reports of a few different Tesla accidents on stocktwits. Hasn't hit the mainstream press yet. I'm sure TSLAQ will be tweeting the press though. At some point these will stop making headline news. Maybe this week? Let's see... Last thing we need with the horrible macros this week is more Tesla FUD.

One Dead, 2 Hurt in I-880 Crash In Fremont Saturday: CHP

Tesla on Autopilot Crashes into Pole

 

[Singer3000]

For those unaware, the new UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps owns a Tesla Model 3 in a personal capacity:
The grant shapps (Government minister) Tesla thread

The UK government is currently bashing about ideas on how to boost the UK economy immediately post Brexit. Cutting fuel tax was one idea but Shapps on Sunday publicly stuck his neck out to try and block it:
Transport secretary Grant Shapps refuses to back fuel tax cuts as he vows to deliver electric car revolution

"I’ll tell you what I’d really like to see happen, 27% of all the country’s CO2 comes from transport and 90% of that’s from vehicles so actually by moving over to electric cars we will make the biggest difference. I think we’ll get to the point where people will look back and go 'Remember when we used to have gas guzzling petrol and diesel pumping out when actually electric cars don’t emit any CO2. There are now more electric charger locations than there are petrol stations so that’s a big move but on the tax question on fuel, when you get the Chancellor on, make sure that you ask him."

I know that Musk must have felt like he got his fingers burned over the Trump advisory council. But the Gigafactory 3 progress in China showed that direct political advocacy by him can be mighty effective and I'd really love to see him do more. There's an open goal right now in the UK. The PM's girlfriend is a 31-year environmental activist and the UK is without doubt about to undertake a counter cyclical fiscal splurge, first by tax cuts and thereafter infrastructure spending.

Get the phone call in before it's too late Elon!

 

[BornToFly]

Good thing that important Tesla issues like service problems get moved out of the investor forum, so we can spend a million pages talking about Chinese IP theft.....

 

[mrmage]

That's interesting. My understanding was that if you call the fixed income desk, they'll laugh at you if your order is less than $100,000. But if you can buy/trade it online for $1000 lots, that's great. I may look into it. What's the commission? Different than stocks? Thanks!

Edit: Can you also give me the ticker/symbol? Thanks.

I remember someone on here saying hundreds of thousands or they'd laugh at you. At my suggestion, my sister picked up $10k on etrade prior to the last earnings report. My timing sucks, but the point is that it wasn't a problem.

I forgot what the commission was, but it's pretty small (.1%?). The spread is the killer, ranging from 1% to 2%. There are 3 transactions involved: seller -> dealer (crappy price), dealer -> dealer (fair price), then dealer -> buyer (crappy price).

I'd swear the bonds are cheaper earlier in the day, but that may be the shorts driving the price down.

CUSIP 88160RAG6

Btw, I noticed the bonds dropped 2% to $94 on Friday.

Also, you're getting only 72% of best case appreciation potential compared to stock in exchange for the added security. E.g. $100 convertibles at $309 priced at $94 when SP is $210 => $210 / $309 * (100 / 94) = 72%

 

[Antares Nebula]

I remember someone on here saying hundreds of thousands or they'd laugh at you. At my suggestion, my sister picked up $10k on etrade prior to the last earnings report. My timing sucks, but the point is that it wasn't a problem.

I forgot what the commission was, but it's pretty small (.1%?). The spread is the killer, ranging from 1% to 2%. There are 3 transactions involved: seller -> dealer (crappy price), dealer -> dealer (fair price), then dealer -> buyer (crappy price).

I'd swear the bonds are cheaper earlier in the day, but that may be the shorts driving the price down.

CUSIP 88160RAG6

Btw, I noticed the bonds dropped 2% to $94 on Friday.

Also, you're getting only 72% of best case appreciation potential compared to stock in exchange for the added security. E.g. $100 convertibles at $309 priced at $94 when SP is $210 => $210 / $309 * (100 / 94) = 72%

Thanks! Very helpful. Not sure if I'll get it, but I'm going to throw it on my watchlist.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Nasty hit piece in Vanity Fair today.

Heard that this was the same author who reported on Enron. WTF?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Nasty hit piece in Vanity Fair today.

Heard that this was the same author who reported on Enron. WTF?

I believe she’s been vocally anti-Tesla for years. I remember her being on a panel with Linette Lopez.

 

[SpaceCash]

Nasty hit piece in Vanity Fair today.

Heard that this was the same author who reported on Enron. WTF?

The "fwaud" angle is even more hilarious than the "bankwupcy" angle. They just say the word over and over hoping it sticks in gullible readers' heads

 

[graphilwar]

Musk just retweeted from Tesla:

“Last month we had over 2 million Supercharger sessions, totalling 72 GWh of energy. That could power: - Hawaii for three days - the Republic of Ireland for a day - playing 'You're Beautiful' on repeat from every device in your house because Karen just left you”

Terrible PR. It needs to contain an assessment of how many litres (gallons) of fuel were left in the ground, and how many km (miles) of travel were enabled.

72 GWh is 72 million kWh (in a month). Let's say Tesla can get a $0.05 margin per kWh from Supercharger fees above costs and assuming 50% of energy delivered is billed (b/c of all those free supercharging cars that are still around) and then run it for a year...then that works out to 21.6M in gross margin per year from supercharging?

I know it's not supposed to be a profit center, but gosh the numbers could really grow as the # of Model 3s on the road grows and later, as FSD with Tesla Network gets put into action...

 

[KSilver2000]

72 GWh is 72 million kWh (in a month). Let's say Tesla can get a $0.05 margin per kWh from Supercharger fees above costs and assuming 50% of energy delivered is billed (b/c of all those free supercharging cars that are still around) and then run it for a year...then that works out to 21.6M in gross margin per year from supercharging?

I know it's not supposed to be a profit center, but gosh the numbers could really grow as the # of Model 3s on the road grows and later, as FSD with Tesla Network gets put into action...

I’m willing to bet significantly more than 50% of SC use is from those with unlimited or free credits. Without these users, I bet most SCs would be vastly under utilized because overnight charging at home is a whole lot less expensive than paying to use SC or other public chargers at the current rates.

 

[SpaceCash]

I’m willing to bet significantly more than 50% of SC use is from those with unlimited or free credits. Without these users, I bet most SCs would be vastly under utilized because overnight charging at home is a whole lot less expensive than paying to use SC or other public chargers at the current rates.

I'm willing to bet that's a ridiculously inflated number based on nothing at all

 

[SteveG3]

Nasty hit piece in Vanity Fair today.

Heard that this was the same author who reported on Enron. WTF?

I’m not going to click on the link, was it Bethany McLean?


Chanos, McLean career transforming/multi-million$ connection described in NY Magazine article excerpted below

(including McLean being part of Chanos’ Fairfax Gang (Matt Taibbi’s research makes a strong case for a major con job orchestrated by Jim Chanos against Fairfax. Seems Chanos got off the hook on a technicality re where the trial could be held )):



“Reporters, too, have a vested interest in cultivating short-selling sources. When a short-seller uncovers fraud, it often translates into the sort of epic story that can make a business reporter’s career. After Chanos tipped Bethany McLean, then at Fortune, to the problems at Enron, she landed a $1.4 million book deal and an Oscar-nominated documentary, and she recently was hired as a contributing editor at Vanity Fair. McLean and Nocera recently nabbed a reported seven-figure book deal chronicling the fall of Wall Street.

...

Of all the journalists whom Chanos deals with, McLean—a former Goldman analyst turned financial writer—maintains a special relationship with Chanos that is the subject of lore and jealousy among rival business writers. At Fortune, McLean wrote features about the Australian bank Macquarie and Fairfax Financial—both companies on which Chanos had significant short positions. Through McLean, Chanos had access into the pages of Fortune.“



The Catastrophe Capitalist

 

[LN1_Casey]

Musk just retweeted from Tesla:

“Last month we had over 2 million Supercharger sessions, totalling 72 GWh of energy. That could power: - Hawaii for three days - the Republic of Ireland for a day - playing 'You're Beautiful' on repeat from every device in your house because Karen just left you”

Terrible PR. It needs to contain an assessment of how many litres (gallons) of fuel were left in the ground, and how many km (miles) of travel were enabled.

I disagree. I think the new Tesla Twitter guy is a gem they made an excellent choice in acquiring.

People don't remember the amount of galleons saved. people don't remember how many miles was traveled. They remember something funny sure as Skoda, though. They're far more likely to like, follow, and share something funny, which is what Twitter is all about.

Tesla and every EV-positive site have been decrying their miles saved for years--Tesla even has a section on their website dedicated to how much carbon was saved in various parts of the world from their cars. Let them keep their funny Twitter that has to get a short, memorable message across to millions.

 

[Causalien]

Good thing that important Tesla issues like service problems get moved out of the investor forum, so we can spend a million pages talking about Chinese IP theft.....

Yes, I'd much rather spend time talking about service.
I mean c'mon. WHy is the PBPB black paint repair kit for Model 3 still out of stock?

 

[Buckminster]

Murphy's law says that TSLA will go to $350 the moment I lighten up on my position.

Do it

Definitely a model Y

Nah, definitely a MX refresh...

 

[Buckminster]

Jack Rickard vid. I didn't see this get posted. I haven't watched yet but the comments are favourable:

 

[Artful Dodger]

A Perspective on Investing and Innovation with CEO/CIO Cathie Wood | BIS2019 | ARK Invest

 

[wipster]

No, we paid for it fair and square.
Fifty or sixty dollars worth of trinkets. /S

And blankets full of viruses...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Probably due to rapidly falling Yuan:

Tesla to Raise Prices in China Earlier Than Planned
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

"Price hikes that were originally planned for September will now take place this Friday, said a Tesla sales representative in Shanghai on Monday, without disclosing details. A spokesperson for the U.S.-based electric-car maker declined to comment."

 

[aubreymcfato]

This is as believable as the propaganda that Iraq war was about spreading democracy.

US IP laws are purely about protecting economic interests. That is the reason for extending Mickey Mouse patents - not because they thought Walt Disney will come back and invent more mice. All the lobbying by Disney that went into the law is well documented. It is no different than most of the other laws that get written with the help of lobby money and the dependence of lawmakers on companies for donations.

I've been involved with copyright (!= patents) for the last decade, and Disney is probably the best example of how a corporation can do all it can to protect their own interest.

As @Fact Checking mentioned, few centuries ago "copyright" was born to protect innovators, but they were given 15-20 years to exploit their invention and that was then called "public domain". The idea was that the ***copyright*** was a temporary exemption to the natural freedom and collective ownership of ideas. It was temporary so that the innovator could sustain himself and his family and continue to innovate. After that period of time, the ideas were back to public domain. And this is exactly how real innovation works, in the public: look at the last 30 years of innovation in open source software, or what happened in non-regulated domains like cuisine or jazz music. The culture of the last millenia was without copyright, and they didn't have problems innovating.

In the last century, we passed from "20 years from invention" to "70 years after the death of the author". The change is significant, as you can see. The invention of corporation (an institution that doesn't die) and the political lobbying of Disney made this "95 years after the death of the autorh in US", which have a stricter law than others (Canada is 50 years). The irony is that Walt Disney himself made his fortune out of public domains stories like fairy tales!

Think about it: Pinocchio, Snowwhite, Cinderella... This is also why you're seeing so many live-action movies from Disney: they have to renew the copyright of many movies. When they changed the copyright law in the '90, through senator the Sonny Bono, they called it the "Mickey Mouse law". Sonny Bono actually wanted an aberration: a perpetual copyright, the never-ending possession of an idea or a story. This is nuts in many ways (especially considering that every story has already been told, and there's nothing truly original).