Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Bet the House]

Price action very weak today. it moves down quickly with the market. not so much when the market is trending up.

The difference between the high and low today (so far) is $2.76. This is the tightest range of any day in the last year (if it holds).

The 2nd ($3.59), 3rd ($3.72) and 4th ($3.86) tightest range days in the last year all came in July. Also, it doesn't exactly correlate to volume as a couple of those days there were about 6 million shares traded.

 

[Rohan]

I don't consider less strict IP laws "theft", just like I don't consider the early United States's lax IP laws "theft". I think it's every country's sovereign right to shape their IP laws.

Put differently:



You continue to argue emotionally, without replying to the detailed arguments I made, such as:

Well China don't have less strict IP laws. Almost all patent law is basically harmonized with the US being the odd one out in its odd treatment of prior art. Most of the major countries have harmonized the patent law at least in terms of granting patent rights. Enforcement is left to individual countries. The US is not held in high regard because they have jury trials which are considered more likely to be partisan.
Is someone really asking why patents don't last forever? Because the whole point of patents is a limited monopoly in exchange for disclosure of the invention, so that everyone can use it. Different IP rights have different terms and for different reasons.
This is OT I'd just rather that people who don't know anything about a subject should not pontificate on it here

Mod: corrected "parents" to "patents" in a couple of places. --ggr

 

[Fact Checking]

The difference between the high and low today (so far) is $2.76. This is the tightest range of any day in the last year (if it holds).

The 2nd ($3.59), 3rd ($3.72) and 4th ($3.86) tightest range days in the last year all came in July. Also, it doesn't exactly correlate to volume as a couple of those days there were about 6 million shares traded.

I suspect market participants are waiting for China's response to Trump's latest round of tariffs - and on whether any new rounds of tariffs will be imposed by Trump.

Calm before the storm?

(Or they are busy watching the SpaceX Starhopper livestream for today's 150m hop.)

 

[larmor]

Just recently?

About 3 days ago...

 

[Leo9]

The difference between the high and low today (so far) is $2.76. This is the tightest range of any day in the last year (if it holds).

The 2nd ($3.59), 3rd ($3.72) and 4th ($3.86) tightest range days in the last year all came in July. Also, it doesn't exactly correlate to volume as a couple of those days there were about 6 million shares traded.

Exactly.. A big movement is coming tomorrow, and probably down.

 

[FreqFlyer]

There's no evidence that the "single (cast) piece" body process is anywhere near ready to go into production. I mean, it could be ready tomorrow, or not for five years. All we have to go on is a patent. Everything else is speculation.

Is its speculating? At least two times publicly the CEO of the company the Y is getting single piece floor going from 70 pieces to 2 then eventually one. Tesla is not going to install an improved stamping machine in Freemont and inferior one in GF3.

And if Tesla is going through the effort of installing new stamping machine for the Y, it stands to "reason" that the 3 made in the same plant sharing a similar platform would take advantage of the new production process.

 

[Bet the House]

I suspect market participants are waiting for China's response to Trump's latest round of tariffs - and on whether any new rounds of tariffs will be imposed by Trump.

Calm before the storm?

(Or they are busy watching the SpaceX Starhopper livestream for today's 150m hop.)

If it holds, today is the tightest range since Feb 3, 2017 when the difference between the high and low was $2.50, which was on very light volume of 2.2 million shares.

 

[Unpilot]

Stock is zooming up now!!
Ok not zooming but kinda sorta slowly going up.

 

[KarenRei]

Stock is zooming up now!!
Ok not zooming but kinda sorta slowly going up.

Leaders Seek WTO Reform to Spur Open, Fair Trade: G-7 Update

 

[Causalien]

I think that is what bond traders are starting to recognise, their metrics are starting to break down. Traditionally, full employment would lead to inflation increases and an interest rate rise as a response to control inflation. This is not happening substantially anywhere as far as I have heard. If the core financial premise of the reserve banks of the world continues to falter then there is reason to believe that bond prices could still rise significantly.

The thing is, it did lead to inflation. Just that our government releases doctored inflation number so they can keep up with their debt payment. In the end, savers lose out but that's ok. Nobody's hurting.

My esprrsso drink at Starbucks went up from $4 to $5 this year. A 25% inflation rate in my Starbicks index.

 

[gene]

European sales 2019-H1 Premium Midsized segment

Sales of midsized luxury cars in Europe continue their downward trend in the first half of 2019, with deliveries down 1% to just under 335.000 units. In March and June, Tesla delivered more Model 3’s than any midsized namplate except for the Mercedes-Benz C-Class.
​

The Germans’ share of the segment has dropped from 81,7% to just 71,4%, mainly due to the arrival of the Model 3.​

European sales 2019-H1 Premium Midsized segment - carsalesbase.com

You should check out the table in that article - some cars are down a LOT.

"Sales of midsized luxury cars in Europe continue their downward trend in the first half of 2019, with deliveries down 1% to just under 335.000 units. And if it hadn’t been for the thunderous arrival of the Tesla Model 3, the segment would have been down by 22%. In March and June, Tesla delivered more Model 3’s than any midsized namplate except for the Mercedes-Benz C-Class."

 

[Intl Professor]

and farmers in red states (which will always go for him).

Not so sure. CNN earlier today interviewed the national union of farmer's president who lambasted the uncertainty created by Trump's negotiating style of "of again, on again." And separately, my guess is the Chinese are not trying to initiate talks as they wait for a change in administration. (They may falsely hope Putin and secretaries of state in Republican jurisdictions will fail to prevent it.) We could well have a sudden collapse of voting count machines due to cyber attack.

 

[elasalle]

Found this App called Tesla News on App Store - News, videos and EM tweets along with ticker price in one place. ~ cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Something to do with the Vanity Fair hit piece ? Until 11:40 TSLA was ahead of Nasdaq.

Hardly. There was just 4 minutes of extra volume required to knock the SP down by $1.50 and that was like an extra 6K shares per minute traded. This is classic no-news no-volume shortz manipulation, aka SSDD.

Cheers!

 

[Unpilot]

I wish there was a thread for solar roof stuff.../S

 

[Papafox]

Bloomberg on the G-7

Specific wording from the link above:

Trump Eases Rhetoric on EU With Auto Tariffs (5:41 p.m.)
Trump said he thinks he’ll be able to reach a new settlement with the EU on the terms of trade without having to impose tariffs on European cars.

"We are very close to doing a deal with the EU," he said.

"They don’t want tariffs, it’s very simple," he added. "I think I’m going to make a deal with the EU without having to go that route."

My thoughts:
Unlike some on this forum, I am not particularly worried about U.S.-China tensions affecting Tesla's China production and sales (other than affecting overall ability for Chinese buyers to afford a Model 3). I think it's more important for China to showcase Tesla as an example of opportunities in China for foreign investors rather than fear China will retaliate against Tesla because of tensions with Trump.

On the other hand, I see a Trump tariff on European auto imports as potentially a huge negative for Tesla (because of inevitable retaliatory tariffs) until GF4 is completed and turning out vehicles. It is for this reason that words today from the G-7 are encouraging to me. Fingers crossed.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla has to go through these growing pains because they are inventing a future that does not yet exist. When they succeed, the world will be transformed forever, and for the better.

 

[KarenRei]

Bloomberg on the G-7

Specific wording from the link above:

Trump Eases Rhetoric on EU With Auto Tariffs (5:41 p.m.)
Trump said he thinks he’ll be able to reach a new settlement with the EU on the terms of trade without having to impose tariffs on European cars.

"We are very close to doing a deal with the EU," he said.

"They don’t want tariffs, it’s very simple," he added. "I think I’m going to make a deal with the EU without having to go that route."

My thoughts:
Unlike some on this forum, I am not particularly worried about U.S.-China tensions affecting Tesla's China production and sales (other than affecting overall ability for Chinese buyers to afford a Model 3). I think it's more important for China to showcase Tesla as an example of opportunities in China for foreign investors rather than fear China will retaliate against Tesla because of tensions with Trump.

On the other hand, I see a Trump tariff on European auto imports as potentially a huge negative for Tesla (because of inevitable retaliatory tariffs) until GF4 is completed and turning out vehicles. It is for this reason that words today from the G-7 are encouraging to me. Fingers crossed.

I agree with this. A US-EU tariff normalization deal would be a huge gain for Tesla, while a US-EU trade war would be a huge loss for them.

On the upside: the EU will stick to its promises. There's always going to be some discord between the European Commission and the European Parliament, but overall, if something is agreed to, the EU isn't going to back out of it.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

We’re probably going to finish in the red with a hard push by shorts in the last 15 mins of trading....

I have to start making more of these predictions

 

[X Fan]

Lets just say - he has written extensively about lack of moral high ground of US for a long time.

Noam Chomsky - Wikipedia

Yes, the “America is evil brigade” has its followers. However, since Independence, the USA has done much more good for the world and it continues to be the place most folks want to emigrate to.