Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[willw64]

Just last week one of the clowns said units were going to be down around 30%, and he said it like it was the gospel.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Sure, and Tesla has a 500 mile range pack ready to go, as soon as the cells are good enough.

A 647.5 mile pack, in order to keep up with LG's unbelievable rate of innovation.

Oh that's right. I don't believe LG will deliver a 75% improvement.

Maybe if they could provide a PowerPoint?

 

[Hock1]

Short data pondering.

For the last 5 trading days volumebot has reported 60% or more of the trades involved short sales. That would be some 10.1 million shares. But the sept 13th shows a short interest of 39 million shares. I am thinking there is a lot of short term short positions perhaps clossing out just before the required reporting day? Possibly the same day or within days of when they were opened?

Those 10.1M shares were initiated short trades. Some of them were covered in one second, some in one minute, some in one hour, etc. Some, many days from now, if ever. Most on these shorts were initiated to manipulate the share price. All of this has very little to do with reported short interest. Happens every day.

 

[StealthP3D]

TSLAQ FUD was alive and will on CNBC this afternoon. I do think Musk has been his own worst enemy at times, but what they were saying today was borderline if not slanderous.

My wife overheard the CNBC video as I was playing it and said in a distasteful tone: "Who are they? They sound like a bunch of teenagers talking about someone they are jealous of".

 

[AlexS]

​

Those 10.1M shares were initiated short trades. Some of them were covered in one second, some in one minute, some in one hour, etc. Some, many days from now, if ever. Most on these shorts were initiated to manipulate the share price. All of this has very little to do with reported short interest. Happens every day.

I see you have done your research (Y). Now you will not blame ihor anymore

 

[RobStark]

Sure, and Tesla has a 500 mile range pack ready to go, as soon as the cells are good enough.

munro and associates or similar will confirm the specs soon enough.

800v architecture, onboard charger and stuff.

I don't know why lame hyperbolic attacks on Tesla seemingly justify lame hyperbolic attacks on Taycan for some people.

I don't know what an OEM is supposed to do when a supplier promises specs they can't deliver on time.

 

[mrmage]

With regards to the report about Tesla's starting mass production in GF3 in mid October:

Production milestone for Tesla in Lingang

This is sooner than I thought.

Anyone care to speculate on how many M3s will be produced by EOY? If GF3 can reach 3k/week by December, an extra 10-15k vehicles could put Tesla near the mid-range of their guidance with nice margins too. Being in Shanghai, Tesla delivery times shouldn't be long.

Or has someone already covered this? The day I don't read the forums much, TSLA goes crazy.

 

[mblakele]

With regards to the report about Tesla's starting mass production in GF3 in mid October:

Production milestone for Tesla in Lingang

This is sooner than I thought.

Anyone care to speculate on how many M3s will be produced by EOY? If GF3 can reach 3k/week by December, an extra 10-15k vehicles could put Tesla near the mid-range of their guidance with nice margins too. Being in Shanghai, Tesla delivery times shouldn't be long.

Or has someone already covered this? The day I don't read the forums much, TSLA goes crazy.

The first body-in-white of Tesla’s Model 3 electric car has rolled off the production line in Lingang, site of the manufacturer's Gigafactory 3 factory, officials said on Thursday.

“It took eight months from groundbreaking of the Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory to the output of this product, which fully reflects 'Shanghai speed and Lingang service',” said Yuan Guohua, president of Lingang Group.

The state-owned developer of the new area of the Shanghai free trade zone, Lingang Group is accelerating the layout of key areas in the automotive industrial chain to meet the demands of Tesla and build a complete new-energy vehicle industry ecosystem.​

It sounds like this isn't mass production yet, just the first BIW. That kind of lines up with the photo earlier this week. Good news, but it's still early days.

Anyway I'll bite with a much more conservative estimate: 5000 TM3 by EOY. Happy to be wrong, but I think there'll be slow progress through October and November, then a mad dash in December to exit with a 3000 run rate.

 

[Green Pete]

Looks like the release of v10 had a hiccup today. Already releasing 10.1 and it has 10x more installs on Tesla Fi than 10 in roughly 30 minutes after it was first identified.

TeslaFi (@teslafi)
9/26/19, 7:10 PM
Software version 2019.32.10.1 0874034 was just detected on a Tesla Model Model 3 Standard Range Plus with Autopilot 2.5 hardware in Connecticut United States. The highest previous version was 2019.32.10 8f5cdff.

Edit:
Download started on my 3 minutes after I posted this.

 

[VValleyEV]

About the Taycan.

A friend in LA is a longtime Porsche 911 owner and enthusiast, in addition to being a techie and longtime engineering VP type. He has been watching the Porsche EV story for a while, but doesn’t like the large Panamera size, would rather have an EV version of the 911. He also considers the S too large.

SO, the latest is that he took a big road trip up the Owens Valley to Mammoth Lakes and surrounding area, something he has done many times before, and declared that “EVs are just not for me, because there is no place to charge them on a fun route like this, it would take way too much careful planning, and that spoils the fun”. He went to a number of remote places off the beaten path and had a blast.

I showed him the simple route in a Tesla using a “abetterrouteplanner dot com”, same route he took in the 911 up hwy 395 through the Owens Valleyeasy easy no stress no real planning, very short charging stops and all along the way. Also easy to get charge up enough close to Mammoth Lakes to drive to all the local attractions, resorts, and trails without range concern for a few days.

I have a screenshot of the good Tesla route, but for some reason TMC won’t upload it, keeps saying security error, no clue why.

OK, but he would have to purchase a Tesla for that to work.

Hmm, I wonder how a Taycan would do for the same route: A: pretty bloody awful.

Many miles longer and boring route through the Imperial Valley, and for the last 100 miles the Taycan would have to be driven at 56mph to have a chance of making it. The desirable route is to the right of that green mountain range, on highway 395 pretty much direct north from LA to Mammoth, nice drive, for some reason I can’t upload the screen shot of that one.

Sure, DC charging infrastructure for non-Tesla EVs will be added in major cities and along major expressways, but what about the jump Tesla has for DC chargers in small resort towns along interesting routes?

 

[Reinhard]

Today was a good day. Is it too much to ask for another 6% jump? Enhanced summon rollout, 100K deliveries and China Gigafactory starting production in 2 weeks should be worth at least a 2 day rally?

 

[JRP3]

munro and associates or similar will confirm the specs soon enough.

800v architecture, onboard charger and stuff.

I don't know why lame hyperbolic attacks on Tesla seemingly justify lame hyperbolic attacks on Taycan for some people.

I don't know what an OEM is supposed to do when a supplier promises specs they can't deliver on time.

Because the charge acceptance rate of the cell chemistry has always been the limitation of fast charging and Porsche advertising charge speeds outside of the capability of energy dense EV cells has always been ridiculous, no matter what voltage they run at. Some of us have been pointing that out since the moment they started touting their 800V pack and the supposed "advantages" it provided.

 

[JRP3]

In case anyone gets this FUD thrown at them, for some reason the "general guideline" is to have at least half a charge before each shift
https://nypost.com/2019/09/25/cops-tesla-runs-out-of-battery-power-during-high-speed-chase/
No it didn't actually run out of charge
Tesla police car nearly runs out of power during chase

 

[SOULPEDL]

My brother picked up his M3P today it’s so factory fresh. It still has the suction cup marks on the windshield from the factory assembly robot lol. September 2019 build date. East coast. Amazing. The middle storage compartment has way better build quality than previous Model 3’s. Has the new annoying pedestrian warning speaker too

View attachment 459387 View attachment 459388

They didn't clean the suction cup marks from the glass? Service really is going down the tubes. This is going to be in the news tomorrow for sure!

 

[SOULPEDL]

Looks like the release of v10 had a hiccup today. Already releasing 10.1 and it has 10x more installs on Tesla Fi than 10 in roughly 30 minutes after it was first identified.

TeslaFi (@teslafi)
9/26/19, 7:10 PM
Software version 2019.32.10.1 0874034 was just detected on a Tesla Model Model 3 Standard Range Plus with Autopilot 2.5 hardware in Connecticut United States. The highest previous version was 2019.32.10 8f5cdff.

Edit:
Download started on my 3 minutes after I posted this.

Dude, literally one of the first 17 or so? I keep writing here thinking I'm next. If not tonight, I'll be checking before my first pssst (onomatopoeia) in the morning.

 

[RobStark]

Because the charge acceptance rate of the cell chemistry has always been the limitation of fast charging and Porsche advertising charge speeds outside of the capability of energy dense EV cells has always been ridiculous, no matter what voltage they run at. Some of us have been pointing that out since the moment they started touting their 800V pack and the supposed "advantages" it provided.

The charge acceptance rate of a cell is not fixed forever. LG Chem will manufacture better cells in the future.

LG Chem told Porsche they would have a cell capable of 350 kW charging by now.

Now they are saying a year or two away.

If Porsche is charging $150k to $235k they can afford both better/more expensive cells and a bigger cushion in their warranty reserve(for fried battery packs).

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know what an OEM is supposed to do when a supplier promises specs they can't deliver on time.

Ideally, the OEM makes as much content as possible (vertical integration). When it's necessary to farm out portions of the car to other manufacturers, especially something as critical to an EV as the battery, it's the manufacturer's responsibility to vet the supplier's claims and abilities. Because at that point you are becoming responsible for their ability to perform. It's not very different from hiring an employee. Tesla doesn't go around blaming any possible defect on their employees, they take responsibility as an organization. Porsche should be no different.

I think people would be fairer to Porsche if Porsche and Porsche apologists hadn't misrepresented the car and acted like it was the best EV ever and took not so subtle digs at Tesla. There is room for everyone to get along but respect is not a one-way street.

 

[Green Pete]

Dude, literally one of the first 17 or so? I keep writing here thinking I'm next. If not tonight, I'll be checking before my first pssst (onomatopoeia) in the morning.

Installing as we speak. I’ll post release notes on this thread in ~30

V10 fw version 2019.32.10

 

[SOULPEDL]

Installing as we speak. I’ll post release notes on this thread in ~30

V10 fw version 2019.32.10

Oh right. You'll be done testing in 30 min? I'm going to every parking lot for some video when I get it.

 

[JRP3]

LG Chem will manufacture better cells in the future.

Sure, that was my point. What Porsche announced is something they could not deliver at launch, which is what I expected all along. If Tesla had announced a 500 mile pack but it came up well short of that everyone would have been all over them, and rightly so.