Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Off Shore]

TSLA recovered from today's dip because the dip was a manipulation and there are enough traders who understand the difference between a manipulation and a dip for reason. That's why I bought 100 shares at 236.7 today. If there's a nice enough rise before the P&D Report, I will sell these trading shares. If not, I will carry them forward however long is needed to realize a decent profit. Other traders are watching TSLA too.

View attachment 461067

By the way, today's manipulation was so flagrant that I filed a complaint with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

(Rated Funny not for content but for the likely SEC response.)

 

[GOVA]

I feel like I am throwing a dead carcass to a shcool of Piranha, but here we go.

From Oilprice.com , 1 source for oil and energy news. Notice what is the breaking story on this site.

Report: Tesla Is Short Of Q3 Vehicle Delivery Target | OilPrice.com

This is "written" by
T S V E T A N A P A R A S K O V A
T s v e t a n a is a writer for Oilpric e.c om with over a decade of experience writing for news outlets such as i N V E Z Z and S e e News.


The quality journalism force is high with this one. LOL. i N V E Z Z , this is like N Y T, right?

 

[Rohan]

Good for them. I'm going to be getting the Tesla T on my forearm when I finally purchase my car.

Tattoos are definitely going from "Only bikers/Sailors" to every day. People get tattoos to show what they love; sports teams, people's names, characters from stories. Why not a brand that is notably trying to change the world for the better? And if it makes the mother/daughter feel closer together, then go

Seeing the reactions of so many vile people against anything that is trying to help the future generations of humanity to survive makes me mad. I have come to the conclusion that this race does not deserve to be saved! Nature, bring on the climate change at full force and kill off this parasite species ASAP!

"And crawling, on the planet's face, some insects called the human race, lost in time, and lost in space,... and meaning" (The Rocky Horror Picture Show).

 

[StealthP3D]

(Rated Funny not for content but for the likely SEC response.)

You expect the SEC will respond?

 

[RobStark]

Interesting article in a petrolhead magazine. Quoting small part

Manufacturers Are Emphasizing Efficiency More Than Ever

Tesla just shattered its own world record, bumping the range of the Model S to a bladder-busting 370 miles. Surprisingly, the 35-mile increase came about without a single physical change to the battery.

It may seem as if the easiest way to go farther is to install a bigger battery, but adding more cells increases vehicle weight, which then requires even more cells to compensate, which then requires a beefier car, which then requires even more battery cells. Allowed to proceed unchecked, this cascading effect could result in a car so heavy, it would collapse into its own gravitational field. Welcome to Black Hole Motors, how can I direct your call?

No thanks. The only reasonable way to maximize range is to concentrate on efficiency. And nobody does efficiency like Tesla. To wit, the Model S Performance (formerly the P100D), the full-size luxury-sport sedan that happens to be the quickest-accelerating production car in history, is 2 MPGe more efficient than the smallest car sold in America, the just-as-electric-but-not-nearly-as-clever Smart EQ Fortwo.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

True - which is why I have 10 Jan 2021's, I think they're a reasonably safe bet compared to second-guessing weekly volatility.

I mean the delivery report - I think we can all be assured it's likely a record quarter, but with 100k being kicked around the park, if they come with 99.999 will be touted as a "miss".

You know how it goes...

Safer bet might be playing the earnings - CNBC show -50c as the expectation, I think they'll beat that myself.

Of course the expectation will mysteriously rise in the coming days/weeks to ensure disappointment...

Nailed it. This is their modus operandi.

Dan

 

[sparcs]

FYI, since I saw some mention of FactSet consensus. As of 9/25, consensus estimates were as follows.

Total deliveries: 96,944

Model 3: 78,445
Model S: 8,567
Model X: 8,788
(sum does not match total delivery consensus due to only a subset of analysts projecting specific models)

Revenue: $6,442
EPS GAAP: -$1.39
EPS non-GAAP: -$0.43
FCF: +$35M

Obviously these will change but hopefully there's an update before earnings.

Source: Q3-19 Consensus Estimates Ahead of Delivery & Production Report (09.25.19) - TechCast Daily

So FactSet on 9/25 is basically 97k deliveries.

Has this drifted upwards since then?

 

[StealthP3D]

It doesn’t sound like Electrek’s source is very informed.

It might not be a case that the SOURCE is misinformed. Tesla might have punked Mr Lambert.

 

[AlexS]

Troy final numbers s&x are 14k only, I guess it will be around 16k-17k

 

[JusRelax]

It might not be a case that the SOURCE is misinformed. Tesla might have punked Mr Lambert.

@StealthP3D , you've been FUDded:

 

[Thekiwi]

 

[Thekiwi]

It hurts my soul that "fake news" has become an acceptable way of describing a false report.

I was under the impression “fake news” didn’t refer to a “false report”, but usually refers to an accurate report containing politically damaging information that they wish to distance themselves from.

 

[Reinhard]

Troy final numbers s&x are 14k only, I guess it will be around 16k-17k

Interesting how divergent his estimates are from insideevs. Troy estimates 7,556 for the US while insideevs estimates 5,075 in July and August alone with an additional 4,475 if September matches June. I think troy is pulling is estimate from his spreadsheet. We will see who is right pretty soon.

 

[EVNow]

Is Model 3 supply constrained now or not ?

 

[HG Wells]

NOTE:
This next 30 days could be FUN.
Oct 2nd Sales numbers
Oct 14th first model 3 made in China
Oct 24-28th Earnings report

Fun Times I hope.

 

[Troy]

Hi, everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q3 2019 is 101,012 units. This table shows how my estimate changed over time. I was already over 100K before Elon's email to employees and I haven't seen a data point that suggests a lower number. So I will stick with that. I posted these estimates on the dates shown here in this Twitter thread.

Here is a simpler table that shows the 3 main regions:

Delivery estimates by month:

Delivery estimates by vehicle model: (I combined Model S and X because Tesla doesn't release them separately anymore)

Interestingly, the community average for S+X here is 16,919 units. That's 2,698 units higher than my 14,221 estimate. Btw, my current estimate for Q4 is 108K.

 

[Reinhard]

Hi, everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q3 2019 is 101,012 units. This table shows how my estimate changed over time. I was already over 100K before Elon's email to employees and I haven't seen a data point that suggests a lower number. So I will stick with that.

Here is a simpler table that shows the 3 main regions:

Delivery estimates by month:

Delivery estimates by vehicle model: (I combined Model S and X because Tesla doesn't release them separately anymore)

Interestingly, the community average for S+X here is 16,919 units. That's 2,698 units higher than my 14,221 estimate.

How did you derive your 14,221 estimate? Was it the same methodology you used for Q2?

 

[Beltsbear]

No thanks. The only reasonable way to maximize range is to concentrate on efficiency. And nobody does efficiency like Tesla. To wit, the Model S Performance (formerly the P100D), the full-size luxury-sport sedan that happens to be the quickest-accelerating production car in history, is 2 MPGe more efficient than the smallest car sold in America, the just-as-electric-but-not-nearly-as-clever Smart EQ Fortwo.

That itself is an amazing fact. Tesla has made it so much more efficient that it beats everyone in every category for mass production electric cars. You would think Nissan would have at least been there by now. And it also says the smart car is a very poor attempt.

 

[Troy]

How did you derive your 14,221 estimate? Was it the same methodology you used for Q2?

Yes, the same method. My final S+X delivery estimate on 30 June 2019 here was 17,533 units compared to 17,722 actual deliveries. However, I have no idea if the accuracy will be as good this time.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Hi, everybody. My final Tesla delivery estimate for Q3 2019 is 101,012 units. This table shows how my estimate changed over time. I was already over 100K before Elon's email to employees and I haven't seen a data point that suggests a lower number. So I will stick with that.

Here is a simpler table that shows the 3 main regions:

Delivery estimates by month:

Delivery estimates by vehicle model: (I combined Model S and X because Tesla doesn't release them separately anymore)

Interestingly, the community average for S+X here is 16,919 units. That's 2,698 units higher than my 14,221 estimate. Btw, my current estimate for Q4 is 108K.

Thank you Troy. I think you are 300 -400 low in Canada.

Cheers.