Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

33%. (Telsa's committment is to release within the 1st 3 days of the month)

Cheers!

Since it's still pre-market, I'll go a little OT on this comment.

I'll have to respectfully disagree with your 33%. That would be like saying that me, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy are about to play golf and I have a 33% chance to win (trust me when I tell you I am HORRIBLE at golf - I haven't played in years). After all, there are 3 of us playing so the chance of me winning is 33% right?. But that simply isn't the case.

I don't think Tesla has ever announced on the first day of the 3 day window, and if so, it had to have been after a weekend. Additionally, the amount of work to tally the deliveries and double/triple check would surely mean day 2, and day 3 have a better chance than day 1.

So, with that said, I'm going with the following.

Day 1 - 5%
Day 2 - 40%
Day 3 - 55%

This is a meaningless post - but the thought came to mind when I read your post, and I couldn't stop myself from posting it.

 

[Cobbler]

Alp Soycengiz on Twitter

Record delivery of 7771 model 3 in the Netherlands!!

 

[Chickenlittle]

Obviously, worried about Troy's low S,X estimate. That would reverse the recovery trend started in Q2. Very bad obviously, but would support my contention about S,X needing a major refresh to bring it up to M3 level (in certain respects). (I got a lot of blowback for this; don't want to rehash that discussion). But let's wait and see what the actual numbers are. Hopefully it won't be less than 15k, as Troy's predicting. Hopefully, Raven update has helped. I would have expected (or am hopeful of) 17-20k S,X in Q3, with total deliveries at 100-105k.

I am so glad you brought this up now just in case the numbers don’t support your assumption and you would have missed opportunity. I no longer assume ant thing so I will state being sarcastic

 

[Antares Nebula]

I am so glad you brought this up now just in case the numbers don’t support your assumption and you would have missed opportunity. I no longer assume ant thing so I will state being sarcastic

Well let me be clearer (and perhaps more controversial). 17-20k would be my expectation based on current Raven release. If, however, Tesla's Model S,X was fully on par or better than M3 (in all respects), i.e., a true flagship (perhaps like the new models coming next year as Musk tweeted about in early September), I believe S,X would average 20-25k currently, and trend up. This is consistent with prior (last year's) sales level + continued demand growth of S,X as Tesla and EV sales continue to grow YoY, while also taking into account any cannibalization from M3.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Below is roughly how I think Elon has applied this approach to tackling the climate crisis. Of course every bullet here could have had a multitude of further subdivisions.
When choosing which of these sub-problems to allocate resources to, Elon will make a careful consideration of Tesla's current lead relative to the competition and where Tesla can make the most new ground most quickly. He will also be guided by a Physics First Principles bottom up estimate of the physical limit of each sub-problem so he has an idea how much work is left to do on each task.

View attachment 461345

In contrast, I think this is how a traditional Auto ICE OEM approaches the problem.

 

[Hock1]

You can't add those numbers together - they are already cumulative totals of outstanding fails. (At least this is what FINRA tells the SEC it is). Thus on Aug 26th the total of all previously sold but still undelivered past the settlement date TSLA shares that FINRA admitted to was 720 shares.

I do find the FINRA daily information on short volume quite interesting. If you integrate it between NASDAQ reports of total short interest from 8/30 to 9/13 you find that 8,139,009 shares were sold short during that period but the short interest declined by 860,698 shares during the period. This means that 8,999,707 short shares were covered during the same period. However the total trading volume only had a grand total of 12,967,593 actual longs shares having been sold over this period (total of all sales NOT marked as short sales). Thus there could only have been a grand total of 3,967,886 shares actually purchased long and held during this same period which is a mere 7.7% of the trading volume during the period. The stock price soared from $229.15 to $246.96 as a result.

Welcome to the wacky world of greater than 50% of all sales being short sales. Needless to say one thing this means is that a large fraction of the buying from the short sellers comes from (theoretically previous) shorts covering. It makes me wonder about whether there is a game played (by non-market makers) to effectively have naked shorts by near-simultaneous shorting and covering (rolling forward the required delivery date). There isn't really a punishment for an FTD that doesn't last too long so once the "ball is in the air" they can keep putting off borrowing of the shares indefinitely by creating new shorts at the same time they cover the old ones such that the delivery is permanently pushed into the future 3 days at a time. Not something a retail investor could do, but hedge funds probably can if they're a member of the exchange.

Also worth noting that FINRA explicitly shows the SHO exempt short sales (the market maker naked shorts) too. During that period they were only responsible for 236,147 shares of naked short sales, or 0.88% of all short sales.

This all assumes you don't think FINRA is cooking the books. Personally I'm skeptical because of that magical period when there were no FTDs at all which lasted much, much longer than any other stock in history with over 1 million shares per day daily volume. I think that was just a mistake where their cooking methodology accidentally left a poo stain.

Thanks for this analysis. Let me remind everyone that FINRA is a Self-Regulating Organization (SRO). It is operated by the big firms on Wall Street, the very same companies that make the majority of their trading profits by lending copious amounts of shares to be shorted by their clients. If, on the off-chance, numbers that are reported to the SEC don't seem to add up, there is probably an explanation. /s

 

[UncaNed]

This 48" video was posted on the Official Tesla Youtube account on Sep 30, 2019:
"Smart Summon"

Ka-ching (c.f. mo' money).

Having downloaded Ver 11 and going for a drive in my X75D feels pretty good. Summoning in and out of my garage seems to work better than before, there's a volume control in the phone app now, so multiple incremental improvements and Come To Me too.

Isn't the car in the video going the wrong way though, judging by the angle of the parked cars?

 

[KarenRei]

Having downloaded Ver 11 and going for a drive in my X75D feels pretty good. Summoning in and out of my garage seems to work better than before, there's a volume control in the phone app now, so multiple incremental improvements and Come To Me too.

Isn't the car in the video going the wrong way though, judging by the angle of the parked cars?

Yeah. That said, so long as there was no traffic, I as a human would have taken that route too, given where the car was starting and where the destination was.

 

[uselesslogin]

FWIW here these are. It looks like a steady downtrend in discussing orders on Reddit, but not a disaster and could be natural as new owners are less likely to post. Also VINs were only ~100k so if we VIN count we do get the consensus of ~80,000 deliveries. I just hope that Elon didn't set himself up for a "miss" by leaking the 100k number.

 

[MartinAustin]

Nice. Schwab is ENDING commission on stock trades. Fidelity et. al will probably follow

 

[AndyH]

For anyone wanting to compile delivery figures, 1002 new Tesla's were registered in Sweden in September, of which 716 Model 3 (sixth best selling car in September), 197 Model S and 89 Model X.

EV market share at 6,7% compared to 1,4% a year ago. Model 3 sold more than twice as good as any other EV or PHEV in September.

This despite Teslas being expensive in Sweden because of our weak krona. Model 3 SR+ is 550000sek vs Kia E-Niro 64kwh which is 445000sek. In Norway price of M3 SR+ and E-Niro is equal.

 

[Swampgator]

In contrast, I think this is how a traditional Auto ICE OEM approaches the problem.

View attachment 461361

You got a lot of funnies on this one, but it is sad to be honest. They are all toast IMHO absent government bailouts.

 

[moneyburner1]

Tesla Carriers

According to the carriers spreadsheet there is a ship expected to arrive today (and one tomorrow).

Are there already lots of cars at the pier for international delivery?
That would mean Tesla is already unwinding the wave !

Thanks !

 

[Pezpunk]

Tesla Carriers

According to the carriers spreadsheet there is a ship expected to arrive today (and one tomorrow).

Are there already lots of cars at the pier for international delivery?
That would mean Tesla is already unwinding the wave !

Thanks !

this is great news for long-term health and stability.

 

[HG Wells]

To: Boss Short

Massive numbers of model 3's waiting to be dumped at sea.

Tesla Carriers

According to the carriers spreadsheet there is a ship expected to arrive today (and one tomorrow).

Are there already lots of cars at the pier for international delivery?
That would mean Tesla is already unwinding the wave !

Thanks !

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

 

[ReflexFunds]

Tesla Carriers

According to the carriers spreadsheet there is a ship expected to arrive today (and one tomorrow).

Are there already lots of cars at the pier for international delivery?
That would mean Tesla is already unwinding the wave !

Thanks !

It would be great if Tesla already has inventory built for the start of Q4. I'd much prefer production to beat 100k than deliveries beat 100k in Q3. That would leave them very well positioned for another big step up in deliveries from Fremont in Q4.

 

[dww12]

New garage addition. Sad to see the Volt go.

 

[Pezpunk]

It would be great if Tesla already has inventory built for the start of Q4. I'd much prefer production to beat 100k than deliveries beat 100k in Q3. That would leave them very well positioned for another big step up in deliveries from Fremont in Q4.

Tesla will win by being focused on long-term and overall goals, putting itself in unassailable positions and on unmatchable vectors -- not by trying to satisfy arbitrary quarterly bullseyes. Over the last 12 months or so, Tesla has been killing itself trying to meet specific numbers on specific days, when in the end these deadlines are unimportant in the grand scheme -- especially since the market makers are just going to jerk the target around and pretend Tesla missed anyway.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Cant believe the price is being pushed down again. its totally insane. Who the hell would sell today?

 

[mrdoubleb]

My numbers have for a long time been pointing at a midpoint of around 105k or so. I'm tempted to pull it down 2-3k due to the recent Electrek article... but then again, you never know with He-Who-Shall-Not-Be-Named.

ED: Oh wait, you're talking about Q4! I was talking about Q3.

I think I'll wait the day or two for the actual Q3 production numbers before starting to speculate on Q4 We'll be way better grounded after that. I remain solidly convinced that - barring an expansion / timing screwup like bit them in Q1 - that they can sell every single Model 3 that they can make. And that - barring a refresh - S/X will make slow trends (so far they've been trending slowly up).

Fully agree with Karen om Q3 and Q4. I would just add two thoughts to this.

1, For the sake of perspective, let`s remember that Tesla`s 2019 target is 360-400k vehicles. They have delivered close to 160k in H1 of the year and traditionally H2 is stronger. If they did a 100k in Q3 (and the first two months fo the quarter did indicate a 10% growth over Q2, which would bring us to ~105k), they only need a similar Q4 to reach the low end of the guidance. This should not be difficult at all, In fact, unless the world economy collapses in Q4 (higher than zero chance...) we should end up somewhere in the middle of the range even without GF3. Anything from GF3 will just be gravy.

2, When considering S/X numbers, it is important to keep in mind, that the 100k a year number was established with a much broader portfolio in the low end with the 75D (and even 75 RWD) models. Bang for buck, of course the current LR (100D) models are much better than the old SR (75) was, but still, overall the entry price barrier has been raised. Also, work has been reduced to 1 extended shift so it`s not like they are still paying for 3 shifts with a ~30-35% drop in volume. While we seem super excited about a possible refresh and sales figures for these cars, it seems to me Elon`s tone when he addresses the issue is that the S and the X are not too high on their list of worries. Plaid should add back the a very lucrative high end ~$150k models, while still being far enough from Roadster 2021 prices and performance to avoid much cross shopping.