Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

Could be, we'll see. Personally I expect a runup to around (only) $250-260 into Q3 ER, however bumpy that runup will be. (We could shoot up on good production/delivery numbers and stagnate or drop after, or we could drop massively immediately and regain lost ground by the ER).

Either way I'm not betting my house on it. How the market will respond to the ER is a big mystery, but I'm bullish given Elon's good mood.

I think GF3 commencing production on 14/10 could be quite a catalyst.

And I don't read anything into Elon's mood - he was in a good mood prior to Q1 end, sooo... What is encouraging is that he's generally good-natured for several months now, and I think that is telling for the general Tesla outlook, if not for specific quarters.

 

[Antares Nebula]

BTW, Tesla pop culture reference spotted in new Netflix dramedy (timestamp: 14:20):

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I think GF3 commencing production on 14/10 could be quite a catalyst.

And I don't read anything into Elon's mood - he was in a good mood prior to Q1 end, sooo... What is encouraging is that he's generally good-natured for several months now, and I think that is telling for the general Tesla outlook, if not for specific quarters.

SpaceX is about to test their space ship. He's taking a huge step in the Mars mission, I think Tesla is soon to be in the rear-view camera for him.

Once Model Y, pickup and semi are released there's not much left to do on the automotive side other than expand. I expect Elon to move on from the CEO role and jump back in the chairman's seat once the SEC nonsense ban has passed in 18 months. Exciting times.

 

[ggies07]

The core message is Act Now and Unite Behind The Science. She’s 16. I doubt she would describe herself as either left or right leaning.

She says she only looks at the facts, things are black and white for her due to her autism. It's her superpower. So no, she has no secret political plan. She tells people to focus on the science.

 

[KarenRei]

SpaceX is about to test their space ship. He's taking a huge step in the Mars mission, I think Tesla is soon to be in the rear-view camera for him.

Once Model Y, pickup and semi are released there's not much left to do on the automotive side other than expand. I expect Elon to move on from the CEO role and jump back in the chairman's seat once the SEC nonsense ban has passed in 18 months. Exciting times.

Tesla won't get "boring" to Musk until the world is pretty much running on autopilot toward an electric and autonomous future.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Awesome. I’m curious - why don’t you think that sticking to the countries that we are forced to buy oil from isn’t a political action?

Because I was considering American politics at the time...as in Democrat vs. Republican.

Dan

 

[Bet the House]

Either way I'm not betting my house on it. .

Hmmmm.... so you're saying I need to re-think a few things?

 

[KarenRei]

In Q2, there were 23019 total new Teslas registered in Europe. In Q3, that number is 25208 just in countries which have reported so far. September numbers for France, the UK, Portugal and Other are still outstanding. I estimate about 5,1k left, although the UK estimate of 3,5k (based on August of 2,1k) is purely speculative.

As for Model S (removing Q2 Sept. data from countries that haven't reported thusfar for Q3):

Q2: 2198
Q3: 1871
Difference: -327

As for Model X:
Q2: 1725
Q3: 1735
Difference: +10

Contrary to the Germany FUD the shorts have been pushing (based on rates of filing for incentives), Germany actually had solid performance. Model 3s only went up slightly, from 2167 to 2199, but Model S went up from 279 to 325, and Model X skyrocketed from 167 to 275. Germany looks to be - very slowly - coming around.

Italy remains an embarrassment for EVs in general. France remains "good". The UK rocks.

As mentioned the other day, the main anti-S/X winds in Europe were due to the overall decline in Norway (all models), which had been a strong S/X market. Norway's reduction in Model 3 purchases, however, was easily made up in other markets like the Netherlands. The remainder of Europe has been slightly neutral on average about S/X, with a small decline in S and a small rise in X. So Norway's loss of 199S and 160X has thusfar netted out with a meaningful decline in S deliveries but just over breakeven in X deliveries.

Of the unreported countries, for total Tesla deliveries, declines can be expected in France and Portugal, with a rise in Other and an epic rise in the UK. As for S/X, however, the UK will probably post a decline on both of them (alongside France and Portugal), while Other should remain relatively constant. It's looking like S will go down maybe 450-500 total in Europe, and X maybe 50 or so. But overall sales up over 7000.

 

[Fact Checking]

Where is a source for glass news?

Also, didn't everyone say that Tesla will ship parts to China until they can produce enough locally?
I really do hope they don't repeat the ramp from 2017. Supposedly, there were lessons learnt and solutions applied.

Is this glass manufacturer the only input available for the estimates?

Here's the GF3 glass supplier (Saint-Gobain Sekurit (Shanghai) Co) interview:

Production milestone for Tesla in Lingang

Saint-Gobain Sekurit (Shanghai) Co plays a supporting role for Tesla. It has built a glass factory in Lingang to produce front and rear windshields and glass roofs for the Model 3. “Mass production is anticipated from October 14, together with the output of Model 3 vehicles,” said Ma Jun, head of the company’s Lingang factory.

“Our annual output is expected to reach 120 million yuan (US$17 million), and at the next stage we may increase our investment and produce for the Model Y,” Ma added.
​

The 3000 sets of glass information is from this Chinese news article:

特斯拉上海工厂玻璃供应商：玻璃厂正紧张调试，10月中量产_10%公司_澎湃新闻-The Paper

'“We will be mass production on October 14th, the factory is under intense commissioning, and the first glass will be produced on October 10.” Ma Jun, general manager of Saint-Gobain Safety Glass China Service Center, said that the company’s first phase is currently The product will be used in Tesla's Model 3 model and may be available for Model Y in the future.'

...

'According to reports, the company has provided Tesla with 20 sets of glass products for trial production of the products in August this year. A total of 3,000 sets will be delivered this year.'

'Shao Zhiyuan, project manager of Saint-Gobain Safety Glass, responsible for the Tesla project, told the journalist that according to Tesla’s previous request, the company’s monthly output can reach 15,000 sets. “Our capacity design is based entirely on Tesla requests to come."'
​

A new glass factory will not ramp up instantly either - just like a new car factory. Also note the capacity limit: 180,000 units per year - which is 3,500/week, not 3,000/week. So about +15% more room to grow beyond initial GF3 guidance.

Note that the October 14 start of production news was effectively confirmed by Tesla China by yesterday's announcement to stop taking new SR+ orders after October 14.

While I think Tesla might ship entire battery packs from GF1 to GF3 in Q4 and Q1, I don't think it's overly practical to ship thousands of fragile and dangerous to handle sets of glass over the ocean.

That said, if anyone is working on their Q4 estimates, a reminder that with GF3 going online, an average of 500/wk across Q4 would add 6,5k, while an average of 1k/wk across Q4 would add 13k. On top of whatever additional Fremont production is added in Q4 (and whatever improved steady-state they got up to by the end of Q3 that is higher than what they started Q3 with).

See above, the glass supplier specified 3,000 sets of glass in Q4, so I think they'll start the ramp slowly. I don't think 500/week across Q4 is realistic - they'll start in the middle of October, losing two weeks from the quarter already.

They might be able to reach something like a 500 units burst week by the end of Q4. The real scaling will be in Q1 I believe.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

If I recall correctly we’ve had three leaked e-mails by Elon so far:

- Q3 2018: if we all go full out on the last day we might make a profit.

Result: $400 million profit.

- Q2 2019: we have a chance of record deliveries.

Result: record soundly broken, with about 5,000 cars to spare.

- Q3 2019: we have a shot at 100,000 deliveries.

Result: ...

In the first two e-mails he was clearly sandbagging it. Let’s hope he continued doing that.

 

[SO16]

Where did you get the idea we only have to reduce emissions?

We actually have to go negative, i.e. remove CO2 from the atmosphere. Zero emissions is just a step along the way.

It’s interesting that you had that thought. If others share that misconception, it kind of explains the lack of people freaking out.

if the removal efforts (and plants) can remove more CO2 than what is put in the atmosphere, then that would allow some oil use in moderation.

Long way to go in order to get there. Things will get worse before they get better.

OT so I won’t post any more about this here. Should be moved. (Or deleted.)

 

[mongo]

Whelp, guess they are not releasing numbers Wednesday morning.

After hours today? 4:20pm perhaps?

 

[Don TLR]

What do you consider a small acquisition? I remember reading that DeepScale had at least two funding rounds, of $3 million and $15 million. Wouldn’t it cost Tesla at least $20 million then? I know, that's just 10% of Maxwell or Grohmann, but it would still be somewhat noticeable.

Elon found that 20 Mil when he pulled out that unused winter coat from last year and reached into the pocket..

 

[Fact Checking]

If I recall correctly we’ve had three leaked e-mails by Elon so far:

- Q3 2018: if we all go full out on the last day we might make a profit.

Result: $400 million profit.

- Q2 2019: we have a chance of record deliveries.

Result: record soundly broken, with about 5,000 cars to spare.

- Q3 2019: we have a shot at 100,000 deliveries.

Result: ...

In the first two e-mails he was clearly sandbagging it. Let’s hope he continued doing that.

The fly in the ointment are the "profitable quarter in every quarter going forward" statements in 2018 and the "tiny profits in Q1" statement in January - which turned out to be -$667m ...

 

[Todd Burch]

Whelp, guess they are not releasing numbers Wednesday morning.

After hours today? 4:20pm perhaps?

There are so many cars it takes time to count them all, haha!

 

[aubreymcfato]

Italy remains an embarrassment for EVs in general.

Yep, it's frustrating.
I'm not sure on the causes, beside the obvious conservative car culture, and generally conservative mind of Italians.
But two things are probably worth mentioning:
* in some regions (like Lombardia, where Milan is), you have incentives only if the car company offers discounts: Tesla doesn't, so no regional discount. Unfortunately these incentives can go up to 8000€, so they are material.
* Italy's national car company (FCA, formerly known as Fiat) does not offer EVs. I think this is the worst thing: Renault sells a tons of Zoe in France, as others companies in their respective country.

 

[Zaxxon]

Also note the capacity limit: 180,000 units per year - which is 3,500/week, not 3,000/week. So about +15% more room to grow beyond initial GF3 guidance.

No, that's simply to account for the fact that one of every seven parts in every Tesla factory is scrapped due to mismanagement/anti-union corporate policy/incompetence/intentional waste/fwaud.

 

[AlexS]

Whelp, guess they are not releasing numbers Wednesday morning.

After hours today? 4:20pm perhaps?

If general market won't recover, then better to release after hours. But also tomorrow before market opens would be also good. This time they have to collect data from a lot of geographies.

 

[AlMc]

I tried to understand what the newest Tesla acquisition meant to Tesla by watching their video releases........Luckily a friend boiled it down for me......I am sharing it here to help anyone else:

They specialize in fusion of sensor data (for contextual AI-NN). Probably top of heap there or at least top 3. Don’t have time to detail currently, but think of it as taking ‘pixels’ from multiple cameras (and/or other sensors) and merging them (correlating differences) BEFORE making object recognition and other higher level determinations (which can bias NN decision making when made too early).

There’s not a perfect analogy, but it may help to think about multiple humans looking at the same scene, and instead of comparing each interpretation of what is seen, a single cortex combines each human’s retina data before deciding what the objects are (or are doing). It attacks not only edge cases but mimics our own brains BELOW the synaptic level where weighted chemical reaction influences when and if synopsis actually fire. The analogies aren’t perfect, but gives some contextual perspective.

As of a few years ago fusion of sensory data was impractical at the application level of higher order NN. Because the local processing had insufficient bandwidth and the power requirements to do so were prohibitive (hence this company’s expertise in processing under lower power and chip design to accomplish etc).

Important take-aways here:
1) This is a level of integration nobody else is even thinking of much less in a position to utilize, as only Tesla has a chip capable of this, and only Tesla is approaching L4/5 edge case and super intelligent decision making. This is 2nd and 3rd order (think differential equations) vertical integration
2) The knee jerk reports this is some sort of replacement of Tesla AI people who left is WRONG WRONG WRONG. This is a completely new level of skill set not related to what those other folks were even qualified to do.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Tesla won't get "boring" to Musk until the world is pretty much running on autopilot toward an electric and autonomous future.

Is it not already? Once we're on the SP500 and SP exits this zone it's all over. Hell, IMO it was over once M3 was ramped and a profit was made.