Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Moody's - a few minutes ago: Moody's upgrades Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-A Notes

Excerpts:

Class D Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2019 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Class E Notes, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2019 Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)

The upgrades were prompted by strong residual value performance of the underlying lease contracts and accretion of credit enhancement due to the sequential pay structure in addition to non-declining reserve account and overcollateralization.

Moody's lifetime cumulative net credit loss expectation was changed to 0.65% from 0.75% for this transaction, reflecting better than expected performance.

 

[Pezpunk]

So what is going on?

Bad journalism.

 

[KarenRei]

Moody's - a few minutes ago: Moody's upgrades Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-A Notes

Excerpts:

Class D Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2019 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Class E Notes, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2019 Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)

The upgrades were prompted by strong residual value performance of the underlying lease contracts and accretion of credit enhancement due to the sequential pay structure in addition to non-declining reserve account and overcollateralization.

Moody's lifetime cumulative net credit loss expectation was changed to 0.65% from 0.75% for this transaction, reflecting better than expected performance.

Implications of this upgrade for Tesla?

 

[StealthP3D]

Are any bulls here at all concerned about Tesla's strong and integrated relationship with China, particularly re GF3?

My guess is China will continue to play nice with Tesla and Elon Musk.

Not only do they want all the cars that willl be rolling out of G3, playing nice is just one more way to thumb their nose at the powers in Washington. You don't actually think Trump likes Tesla, do you?

 

[KarenRei]

Interesting thread about Waymo investigating rolling out to LA.

Thread by @jpr007: "WAYMO UPDATE - 2 “Waymo has announced that it will use its 3D mapping technology to figure out if its self-driving cars can navigate the hea […]"

Waymo's announcement about its plans contain a massive implicit declaration of the weakness of their systems.

 

[AlMc]

Yep, the financial news is still trying to pump Nio stock. When its Tesla, its all sell, sell, sell. But when its "China's Tesla" (Nio) it's all buy, buy, buy. They've been doing this since before Nio was listed in the US.

In other words, sell Nio (for those who inexplicably hold it) and buy Tesla.

(35% jump on $1.50 is easy, its just noise, but it makes a nice headline)

C’mon.

As an example, a $10,000 investment with a 35% jump is a $3,500 gain. Does not matter whether you invested $10,000 into a stock that’s priced at $1 or $1,000.
Do you somehow feel better because you made $3,500 from a stock that costed you $1,000/share versus a stock that costed you $1/share?

Next time you hear that noise can you tell me. I'll take a ST 35% gain....

 

[Curt Renz]

Moody's - a few minutes ago: Moody's upgrades Tesla Auto Lease Trust 2018-A Notes

Excerpts:

Class D Notes, Upgraded to Aaa (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2019 Upgraded to Aa2 (sf)
Class E Notes, Upgraded to Aa2 (sf); previously on Jul 15, 2019 Upgraded to Baa2 (sf)

The upgrades were prompted by strong residual value performance of the underlying lease contracts and accretion of credit enhancement due to the sequential pay structure in addition to non-declining reserve account and overcollateralization.

Moody's lifetime cumulative net credit loss expectation was changed to 0.65% from 0.75% for this transaction, reflecting better than expected performance.

Implications of this upgrade for Tesla?

Further quashes TeslaQ's hopes for bankruptcy.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Implications of this upgrade for Tesla?

They might get a few bpp improvement on their next Model S/X lease securitization. If they do a S/X deal, that is. If they include Model 3 pricing will probably suffer.

 

[EVNow]

Massive manipulation at close to push TSLA below $240. Criminal!

View attachment 463945

Given how fast the market dropped, TSAL was quite good today. I'd not call this manipulation.

 

[StealthP3D]

Implications of this upgrade for Tesla?

Tesla gets a prettier feather in their cap. Appearances matter to investors.

It would matter more if Tesla wanted to borrow a bunch of money to accelerate its growth.

 

[KarenRei]

They might get a few bpp improvement on their next Model S/X lease securitization. If they do a S/X deal, that is. If they include Model 3 pricing will probably suffer.

So Tesla would then keep a bit more cash per leased vehicle in that scenario. Nice.

Why would Model 3 inclusion hurt pricing - you mean, because the lease securitization is only for S/X at present? But either way, they'll get a better rate than if Moody's hadn't upgraded them.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Implications of this upgrade for Tesla?

Tesla vehicles maintain value (known, but now in ink). $ impact not much on $55M, but the word "Upgrade" and "Tesla" in the same sentence... that can move the needle.

 

[andrewt3000]

Here are my thoughts on what Tesla will go over on battery day (range, battery life, cost, etc)... including producing cells and raising money... any other thoughts on what will be on battery day?

Batteries are no longer a commodity

 

[Doggydogworld]

Why would Model 3 inclusion hurt pricing

Less and residual value data adds uncertainty, so tranche buyers want better terms.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Implications of this upgrade for Tesla?

Spacecash will be BAF. Antares will find something to be concerned about. Split the difference.

 

[EVMeister]

Cool video on Tesla's recent battery-related acquisitions:

.

 

[Prime_Number]

Then you don’t know Elon. I’d be shocked if the 1-2 TWh/year goal was more than 6 years away

Interesting consideration !

If we assume that Tesla grows the battery production in a manner in which they have grown vehicle production (roughly 50% per year); we can try to guess how much battery production they might start with in 2020.

If over 6 years we start with 100 Gwh in the first year and then subsequently 150, 225, 340, 500, 750 ...for a total of 2.06 Twh

If over 9 years we start with 20 Gwh in the first year and then 30, 45, 70, 100, 150, 250, 375, 550 for a total of 1.59 Twh

One can guess then their initial goal for 2020 would be at least 20 Gwh

Edit: Just to be clear, this is new battery production CAPACITY each year, not battery production

 

[ZeApelido]

Interesting consideration !

If we assume that Tesla grows the battery production in a manner in which they have grown vehicle production (roughly 50% per year); we can try to guess how much battery production they might start with in 2020.

If over 6 years we start with 100 Gwh in the first year and then subsequently 150, 225, 340, 500, 750 ...for a total of 2.06 Twh

If over 9 years we start with 20 Gwh in the first year and then 30, 45, 70, 100, 150, 250, 375, 550 for a total of 1.59 Twh

One can guess then their initial goal for 2020 would be at least 20 Gwh

Edit: Just to be clear, this is new battery production CAPACITY each year, not battery production

Blasphemy. It must be 19 or 23

 

[kbM3]

Interesting consideration !

If we assume that Tesla grows the battery production in a manner in which they have grown vehicle production (roughly 50% per year); we can try to guess how much battery production they might start with in 2020.

If over 6 years we start with 100 Gwh in the first year and then subsequently 150, 225, 340, 500, 750 ...for a total of 2.06 Twh

If over 9 years we start with 20 Gwh in the first year and then 30, 45, 70, 100, 150, 250, 375, 550 for a total of 1.59 Twh

One can guess then their initial goal for 2020 would be at least 20 Gwh

Edit: Just to be clear, this is new battery production CAPACITY each year, not battery production

Remember they forecast Energy to grow at 200%-300%.

And Tesla Semi will really escalate demand. Who knows what’s coming. Heavy machinery, ships, aircraft...

Nobody ever accused Elon of thinking small.

 

[dc_h]

They might get a few bpp improvement on their next Model S/X lease securitization. If they do a S/X deal, that is. If they include Model 3 pricing will probably suffer.

Overcollateralization implies they can reduce collateral and recognize some additional profit. Interested in Brian’s thoughts on details.