Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Steve m]

Caution: The excessive use of INTERCAL is what warped the minds of the TSLAQ bears.

 

[CuriousSunbird]

Also, I've heard of people doing their buy-and-hold positions in traditional brokers' accounts, and their trading shares in Robinhood due to the free trades.

Most brokerages are going free-trades now.

 

[bhtooefr]

Give me some time and I can calculate something out of the EPA datasets? The true range numbers are confidential but there's enough data on how much charge energy went in, and the efficiency, to calculate the actual range without voluntary reductions, I think.

Model 3 ARB application covering RWD Model 3: https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=46584&flag=1

Long Range charge energy (stated from ARB application): 89406 Wh
Long Range combined efficiency (stated from EPA datafile): 25.8779 kWh/100 mi
Long Range combined range (calculated): 345.49 mi (but the PDF says 334 mi 5-cycle efficiency, something isn't quite adding up)

SR+ charge energy: 61990 Wh
SR+ combined efficiency: 25.3881 kWh/100 mi
SR+ combined range: 244.24 mi

That's all I can get easily at this time, and the EPA site isn't cooperating with me.

 

[Tslynk67]

Dude, you have GOT to try FORTRAN 77! It will change your life.

ALGOL is where it's at!

 

[Tslynk67]

Well, not everyone can recognize a good car when they see one, especially if they are bringing a lot of pre-conceived prejudices to the table. I've met people who didn't like a single Pink Floyd song!

Well they obviously have Brain Damage

 

[Fact Checking]

2019 Tesla Model S AWD Long Range: Combined range voluntarily lowered to 370 miles

I'm wondering what the possible max range there is - not quite 400 miles I suspect?

 

[LJS22]

“China’s industry ministry on Thursday said it has added Tesla Inc to a government list of approved automotive manufacturers, granting the manufacturing certificate that the electric vehicle maker needs to start production in the country.

The list was published by China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.”

China grants Tesla car manufacturing certificate: industry ministry

CNBC analysts are going to be in shock when they get the news this morning.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Or something else?

Nice list of motivators. I got one:
The viral factor.
Last quarter an additional 97k Teslas hit the streets. Perhaps 70k new Tesla families - each with family and friends who got to ride in an EV for the first time. A percentage of those people will have ordered for Q4, a significant delta.

 

[KSilver2000]

by the way, here's a link to my shareholder question. Please upvote if you find the question interesting. Say

I hate creating new accounts. But, I’m morally upvoting that Q.

I like this question because I work with class B and C landlords all the time. Most class A apartments already have some kind of charging available to tenants nowadays. So, it won’t apply to them. Whenever the topic is brought up with these B/C landlords, the typical conclusion is that there is no ROI—until the majority of the population is driving EVs. To install a commercial EVSE, it typically costs up to ~$15K per charging stall all in.
So, unless Tesla (or any other provider) would like to install the chargers for free, or at an insanely subsidized price, there is no incentive right now for landlords to provide a charger.
CA law does require landlords to permit tenants to install chargers (if the apt is not under rent control), but that is at the tenant’s expense. And since the spot will become EV priority at the apartment, the landlord can then charge the tenant for parking space lease if it wasn’t a private spot originally.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Or something else?

Tesla ships Model 3s to oversea markets for the first 2 month of the quarter; US deliveries happen in ernest in the final month of the quarter. At least until there are gigafactories on all the major continents. Even then, certain specialty vehicles may be produced at a single factory for the entire world market, ie: Model 3 Performance, S/X.

The change in the website's U.S. delivery time estimates could be simply to reflect that reality.

 

[bhtooefr]

I'm wondering what the possible max range there is - not quite 400 miles I suspect?

...annoyingly, I can find the application for the test group (KTSLV00.0L2S), but not a version of the application that includes the Ravens

However, we know the Raven Long Range should be the same pack as a 100D, so let's do it this way:

https://iaspub.epa.gov/otaqpub/display_file.jsp?docid=46586&flag=1

100D recharge energy: 113.201 kWh
Raven LR efficiency: 30.2726 kWh/100 mi
Guesstimate of Raven LR actual range: 373.94 mi

So basically just going for a nice number, I think. They couldn't get it to 375, so 370 it was?

 

[CorneliusXX]

My 2 cents... They are young. A quick dollar is too tempting. But their holdings are small, their influence over the main game minimal.

View attachment 466986

Also, it's likely the Robin hood userbase is growing quickly, so a higher number of holders compared to a year ago may not be a reflection of increased bullishness by the population.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Wow.

I don't think this kind of organic expansion of U.S. Tesla demand ever happened before on such a scale, so early in a quarter (we are 2.5 weeks into Q4).

Previously we had big increases in orders when production volumes were still low and new Model 3 variants were released (Q2-Q4 2018), but that was primarily pent-up demand. None of that happened in this quarter and production has expanded further, which makes it even more impressive IMHO.

While Tesla did indicate an uptick in the order book in the Q3 delivery report, based on production levels I guessed it to be max of 1-3 weeks worth of demand - not 4-10 weeks (!).

I'm really curious what caused this:

• Is this the Nürburgring effect? Did Tesla finally crack one of the secrets to Porsche's stable sales and sky high margins?
• Is this the Taycan effect? Did a good chunk of the 30,000 Taycan reservations flock to the Model S and M3P in disappointment at Porsche's mediocre performance where the only thing 'ludicrous' is the price?
• Is this the trade war effect? Does the unconditional capitulation of Trump tremendous win of Trump in the trade war against China and the resulting cease-fire ease consumer worries about short-term U.S. recession and job loss risks?
• Is this the portfolio effect? Does a +40% rise in TSLA and other high-tech stocks improve U.S. balance sheets enable some profit taking or deleveraging to allow another Tesla for the family, or two?
• Is this the final $1,750 federal tax credit effect? Use it or lose it - but only ~1.5% of a Model S/X ASP, and only ~3% of a Model 3 ASP, so according to @neroden's tax credit model it's worth about 1-2 weeks of pull-forward demand.
  
• Is this the Smart Summon effect? Over half a million Smart Summon demonstrations all across the U.S. over a single weekend sure caught attention. If yes then the Halloween pranks with Smart Summon will add another week or demand or so to the backlog ...
• Is this the V10 release effect? Sentry mode finally usable, Caraoke, Netflix, Spotify, computer games - what more to ask for?

Or something else?

Very curious development, and while Q3 earnings could be really bad ("Tesla missing Wall Street expectations" in all categories), this is bullish AF in the long run. I'm particularly happy about Model S/X order queue of 4-10 weeks - this is a big potential GAAP profit factor.

This IMO also explains the Model Y leaks and the Pickup Truck unveil: Tesla is now focused on developing Q1 demand. Would not be surprised if the Pickup Truck unveil was in late November, to guarantee that any media attention and influx of orders would help the January/February numbers.

The more tenacious long term shortz will also have to start seriously considering the prospect of Tesla being added to the S&P 500 in May-June or August-September next year: if Q4 is profitable and Q1 or Q2 is borderline profitable with a bit of FCA credits and deferred revenue help, then S&P 500 addition looks probable, given that the bad Q1'2019 (and Q2'2019) losses will have rolled out of the 4-quarter window of the S&P 500 profitability equation:

• Q2'2019: -$408m
• Q3'2019: -$200m?
• Q4'2019: +$410m?
• Q1'2019: +$200m?
• Q2'2019: +$300m?

I.e. if Q3 isn't "too bad" - say -$200m loss, then Q4 earnings of $410m or better, and a profit of $200m in Q1'2020 would trigger S&P 500 inclusion of TSLA. Or if not then, then in Q2, with August-September addition to the S&P 500, because the -$408m loss of Q2 will have rolled off then.

Still way too early to call though and not advice - I have a particularly bad track record with GAAP profitability and S&P 500 inclusion speculation ...

I wonder if they are focusing more on international production for longer this quarter. A couple of extra weeks of export vehicles directly increases wait times for US customers. Regardless, it's very bullish for demand.

 

[Fact Checking]

So basically just going for a nice number, I think. They couldn't get it to 375, so 370 it was?

Makes sense: when they introduced the Raven the Q1 shell shock was still strong: S/X sales going down drastically, the magnitude of which certainly caught Tesla by surprise and triggered S/X assembly line layoffs and production capacity halving in January, and they were far away from any planned refresh so had to scramble. So I fully buy your theory that they went for the longest range possible as a demand lever, with a bit of a reserve of a couple of miles.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm wondering what the possible max range there is - not quite 400 miles I suspect?

Well, MotorTrend magazine demonstrated 400 miles real world range with a drive from San Francisco to Los Angles in April 2019. That was a continuous highway trip, but w/o the benefit of Autopilot due to rookie mistakes (the drivers ignored AP warnings to hold the steering wheel because they were distracted while futzing with their other tech).

EXCLUSIVE: 2019 Tesla Model S Review: From SF to LA on One Charge? - Motor Trend

"As we pull into the Supercharger stall, our elapsed time from the Bay Area stood at 6 hours, 11 minutes, 359 miles. With 83 kWh used, we had 11 percent of the battery remaining—which equates to 41 more miles at the rate I was going. Right at 400 miles if you add it up."​

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla ships Model 3s to oversea markets for the first 2 month of the quarter; US deliveries happen in ernest in the final month of the quarter.

I wonder if they are focusing more on international production for longer this quarter. A couple of extra weeks of export vehicles directly increases wait times for US customers. Regardless, it's very bullish for demand.

That's true but there's an exception, the Model 3 Performance, which is built on a partly manual assembly line (the super famous Sprung Tent), where I think they can and do fast-track orders for U.S. versions with few complications.

Yet Model 3 Performance delivery window increased to 8-10 weeks in the U.S., which suggests that:

1. Model 3 Performance inventory in the U.S. is zero, nil, nada, 100% gone,
2. and ~2 months of Performance production is already 100% spoken for between all of Europe, UK, Asia and the U.S.,
3. they've just increased the price of the Model 3 Performance by +$1,000, which suggests that it's a supply bottleneck.

Which is nice for Q4 margins even if most of those units were sold outside the U.S. as you suggest ....

 

[LN1_Casey]

by the way, here's a link to my shareholder question. Please upvote if you find the question interesting. Say

I can't vote, because Ford Say, but this does give an idea possibly; Maybe, Tesla, when installing a large, facility level Solar array on a rental property, they can install one or three chargers at cost? Or maybe free? Incentivices the landlords to get a solar array, so shouldn't just be a loss to Tesla.

 

[mongo]

"I think Q1 next year will be tough.", according to Elon, and "Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough". He said this 2 months ago on July 24, and he fully knew their own GF3 and Model Y plans and progress.

Sure, with the caveat that he was talking quarter over quarter delivery growth. Q1 being the seasonal low point enhanced by the end of the US fed tax credit. It was also closer to 3 months ago.

Elon may be avoiding stating any results that depend on perfect execution, so a Q3 volume start of sales for Y would be the conservative approach. Additionally, if GF3 ramps up quickly in Q4, there will not be a significant Q4 to Q1 increase there (a good thing overall). Overall growth is bottlenecked by cell/ pack availability.

From: https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2019/07/24/tesla-inc-tsla-q2-2019-earnings-call-transcript.aspxm
Sacconaghi: And are you still confident that Q3 deliveries can improve sequentially? And beyond the data point that you provided on the call that the orders quarter data better than last quarter, is there anything else you can point to that provides that confidence?

Elon Musk -- Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think we'll -- demand in Q3 will exceed Q2. It has thus far and I think we'll see some acceleration of that. So -- and then I think Q4 will be, I think very strong. So we expect that quarter-over-quarter improvements. I think Q1 next year will be tough. I think Q3 or 4 will be good, Q1 will be tough. Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough. And then I see like Q3 and Q4 next year will be incredible.

Zach (paraphased): US orders are not slowing down currently.

Mongo's take: Y going strong by Q3 '20 along with Plaid Raven S. New cell and pack lines humming for Y, GF3, TE, and semi.

 

[Fact Checking]

Elon may be avoiding stating any results that depend on perfect execution, so a Q3 volume start of sales for Y would be the conservative approach.

Note that Model Y volume production in Q3 2020 isn't really likely even in the optimistic case of them starting Model Y production in late March 2020. Tesla only guided for a launch of the Model Y to happen "by fall 2020", and the Model 3 was "launched" in July 2017, with the following delivery numbers in the quarters to follow:

• 2017/Q3: 220
• 2017/Q4: 1,550
• 2018/Q1: 8,180

And that was with almost all of Tesla working on scaling up Model 3 production from 2017 to 2018 - while the Model Y will be a happy distraction alongside the primary business of selling Model 3/S/X units.

Here's a recent photo from Model Y related construction activities at the "Tesla Service Station", taken by Global Equity Research analyst Trip Chowdhry, on a recent Fremont factory visit:

Showing early stages of Model Y assembly line installation, IMHO.

He commented, in a note to clients:

"Model Y Production Line is very likely being laid out at the previous on-site location of Tesla Service Station."​

So I'd like to urge cation regarding Model Y speculation, as @Krugerrand warned it's difficult to build new assembly lines and even more difficult to scale them up.

 

[Thekiwi]

Tesla ships Model 3s to oversea markets for the first 2 month of the quarter; US deliveries happen in ernest in the final month of the quarter. At least until there are gigafactories on all the major continents. Even then, certain specialty vehicles may be produced at a single factory for the entire world market, ie: Model 3 Performance, S/X.

The change in the website's U.S. delivery time estimates could be simply to reflect that reality.

my thoughts as well - which is why California delivery times are the longest (because they want to wait until the last few weeks before prioritizing west coast deliveries.)