Teslambert Gigafactoire will demand the latest battery technology and must be constantly updated. Sounds like a money sink...
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
It's not about being adult, it is about setting (unrealistic ?) expectations for others. I think a lot of "analysts" read our forum and derive information from here. Once that gets into the media it becomes a de facto "expected target". It will not make the stock go any higher (it was expected), but if missed it will make it go lower.
As soon as someone has credible info from inside sources, please post. I have seen the CleanTechnica piece - it may be correct or not. I also remember the Electrek giving the interior S refresh as planned for Q3.
woodisgood
Optimustic Pessimist
I was gonna say...!
I'm relatively new to the dynamic, but some of those folks seem downright unhinged. I can only imagine what will happen if/when they actually lose it all.
Who cares!
Of course "media" people read this forum. Of course wall street commentators of all shapes and sizes read this forum. Of course the FUD will continue as long as big oil has a foothold on the auto industry.
It's not our responsibility to curate the optics of our discussions here past a very basic level of civility. It seems likely the MY may begin production in Q1 2020. I always felt that Q3 2020 seemed unnecessarily late. People will spin and manipulate regardless.
bhtooefr
Active Member
...which means more revenue for Tesla, transferred from them (thanks to Sentry catching them).At least there will always be a steady supply of folks willing to key Teslas as a remedy for problems in their lives.
COBOL ON COGS
Or if you want real: azac/cobol-on-wheelchair
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
But why are you the judge and jury as to what constitutes "unrealistic expectations"? I suggest you participate in the conversation if you think someone is being "unrealistic", not try to muzzle them.
Paracelsus
Active Member
And they will always have plenty of 'whine' with their cheese at the employee dining hall
I agree. The Q1 production start of the MY would also add credence to this line of thinking. What better time to switch over M3 to the new wiring than during a period of lower demand/production?
I coulda sworn I remember Elon saying the M3 would eventually get the MY's next-gen wiring harness
I expect it, eventually
I'm just gonna go ahead and go out on a limb and voice the superbull opinion
This could be when TSLA finds a new level substantially higher, and doesn't return.
Shorty Air Force is extremely butthurt on Stocktwits, Twitter, Reddit (where they have TONS of goons pretending to be bulls trying to manipulate the narrative), and very overtly beginning to question the ridiculous $0, doom, bankwupcy fantasy. Many, many of them are starting their comments with "I'm bullish but...", meaning that they know damn well an overall negative train of thought is outright foolish and preposterous at this point.
They are losing control of their story and their supporters. GM has not been producing cars for weeks because their people are on strike. It's over for ICE.
I'm not gonna say it's squeeze time because we've heard that a million times over the last 5 years.
But it could be squeeze time.
This could be when TSLA finds a new level substantially higher, and doesn't return.
Shorty Air Force is extremely butthurt on Stocktwits, Twitter, Reddit (where they have TONS of goons pretending to be bulls trying to manipulate the narrative), and very overtly beginning to question the ridiculous $0, doom, bankwupcy fantasy. Many, many of them are starting their comments with "I'm bullish but...", meaning that they know damn well an overall negative train of thought is outright foolish and preposterous at this point.
They are losing control of their story and their supporters. GM has not been producing cars for weeks because their people are on strike. It's over for ICE.
I'm not gonna say it's squeeze time because we've heard that a million times over the last 5 years.
But it could be squeeze time.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Ooh, you're such an Ed Rooney. It was it the accordian, wasn't it? You need to shake it up!
And always pay respects for Abe Froman, the Sausage King of Chicago...
Cheers!
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Carl Raymond
Active Member
Wow. Lol. Bugger the sun. Tesla is now so powerful they are an actual energy source. Why even bother putting the panels on the roof? Just stick ‘em in the basement.
In the U.S., Model 3 delivery time has been updated: P3D 8-10 weeks; SR+ and AWD 6-10 weeks. S/X 4-8 weeks.
Fact Checking
Well-Known Member
Agreed, plus there's also the fact that Tesla, willingly or unwillingly, sent unmistakable signals that they are progressing with the Model Y, which need no TMC magnification:
- they've been testing a non-camoflaged black Model Y for weeks,
- they paraded 3 fully manufactured red Model Y's on a trailer on public roads in broad daylight,
- they released the "Crash Test Lab" video with a Model Y mule in it, with an early September timestamp,
- they were recently testing a Midnight Silver Model Y as well.
Number of users holding went down from a peak of 170k in June, to ~145k yesterday, a drop of 15%.
Note that Robinhood # users holding is still very strong, still 45% higher than the ~100k users holding while the price was $300+ levels early this year:
But there's been some deleveraging and taking profits, which is prudent to TMC readers, as expectations are of not particularly nice Q3 earnings:
- GAAP losses of -$200m,
- revenue of $6.2b - which is lower both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year,
- probably lower FCF than in Q2, in part due to Model Y and GF3 spending,
So if these are the Q3 numbers then the "Tesla growth story is over!!" FUD will flood the media again, any Model Y advances will be ignored and it will be a perfect time for a bear attack as well.
Sentiment here on TMC is positive - but that's to be expected after a +40% run-up in ~3 months after a brutal -50% drop to 3-year lows in 5 months. TMC sentiment was even better at $350 levels in January.
The Model Y news could be anything, even if we accept the leaks as accurate:
- Q1 2020 could mean the beginning of early trial production, with a trickle of a dozen of Model Y's per week perhaps. Delays are entirely possible there - the self-imposed guidance by Tesla is to "launch" the Model Y "by the fall of 2020" - with no clear guidance on when the ramp-up to mass production will happen. @Krugerrand has been warning us against too high expectations regarding Model Y ramp-up.
- Excess GF1 output will probably be directed towards China primarily, where the GF3 battery shop won't be completed until March 2020.
- "I think Q1 next year will be tough.", according to Elon, and "Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough". He said this 2 months ago on July 24, and he fully knew their own GF3 and Model Y plans and progress.
Absolutely not advice, as always.
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Carl Raymond
Active Member
My 2 cents... They are young. A quick dollar is too tempting. But their holdings are small, their influence over the main game minimal.
They also raised prices on Model 3. #demandpwoblems
So practically sold out for the quarter.
Nice post Fact Checking, thought I was reading Papafox
The other caution area is the annual goal of 350k-400k being a struggle, maybe a miss.
I am fine with 340k, it's about all the curved growth that matters. So I plan on these dips with small bets. Keeps it fun.
The other caution area is the annual goal of 350k-400k being a struggle, maybe a miss.
I am fine with 340k, it's about all the curved growth that matters. So I plan on these dips with small bets. Keeps it fun.
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