Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

Buyers went to lunch. They told me they'll be back at 1pm to get the price above $320 hehe.

Yeah, we prolly don't wont to broach $320 today. There'd be some selling triggered when we hit the Feb 28th support level at $319.88 so best to leave that hill for next week.
Cheers!

 

[snellenr]

You joined in 2012 but your cost basis is $240? Doesn't compute.

Some of us early joiners used that first big runup to finance a car purchase...

 

[Mike Smith]

We're now about $70 above the 200dma. I think it's going to hold..

 

[Curt Renz]

Come on folks, let's show a little sympathy for the short sellers. They are fellow human beings with hopes and feelings. They might be credulous pawns in the hands of hedge fund manipulators who feed them nonsense, but their ignorance may ultimately be due to something missing in their education. Hug a short today.

 

[M3Rider]

Ok, gonna post this... but PLEASE do NOT learn from me.... I got EXTREMELY lucky on this trade and it was completely with just play money.

Disclaimers aside, this is how you turn $700 into 15 shares of stock.

View attachment 469912

Edit: I find it funny i was able to sell 9 of my puts for a cent each today LOL. Commission took half of my money on that trade!

Betting that Q3 will cause the SP to jump from 250 to 300+ when everybody is expecting a loss or break-even on the call expiring that week... yeah that was quite a risk. Almost like throwing that $700 into trash bin... Congrats.

 

[SteveG3]

Call me a simpleton, but I see a much simpler story: Post M3 announcement, the market assigned Tesla a market cap of about $50-60 billion, based mostly on the intermediate-term potential of Fremont. As soon as the company started guiding lower for Q1, the SP took a dive, which continued precisely until the delivery report in Q2 reassured investors that Q1 was an aberration, and has since climbed back into the $50-60 billion market cap range. End of story.


Where does the story go next? I think three things are likely (but of course anything can happen, so not stock advice!) :

1. If...IF....Musk is right that the company will generate profits and positive cash flow every quarter going forward, the market will probably not reduce the market cap below $50 billion.

2. There are a number of potential developments in the next 12 months that would cause the market to greatly increase the market cap. The biggest one in my view is for China to really take off. FSD could also do the trick, although I believe that’s more likely in 2021. Tesla Energy generating significant profits would be a catalyst. Or it could just be excellent execution that so improves margins that profitability rises.

3. In about two years I predict the market will assign $100 billion to Tesla automotive, $50 billion to the near term potential of Tesla Network (robotaxis) and $50 billion for Tesla Energy.

So over the next 24 months the SP should rise from 300 to at least 1200. The only thing I can guarantee is that it won’t do so in a straight line.

largely agree re events, but, I’d adjust to ~$600 based on the misinformation campaign flooding the public with false narratives how every positive, neutral, and any stumbles are a disaster for Tesla.

how many times have you seen Tesla singled out as the company with China trade war risk either ignoring or attempting to twist the reality of the Shanghai GF.

as I’ve stated here for some years now, I think both the massive misinformation campaign and the historic outlier short position for over 7 years are “fossil fuel economy” driven AND I wouldn’t count on any major drop off in either phenomena before 2022 at the earliest.

just trying to share what I think is realistic... and that includes a $1200-2000 stock price circa 2026. I try to be conservative in my estimates, and if Tesla Network succeeds widely by then, good chance it will add about $2k to those prices.

 

[Nocturnal]

Some of us early joiners used that first big runup to finance a car purchase...

My 2014 shares were sold in 2017 to buy a house. Yeah I would have done better to wait, but $100 gain per share was still nice...of course if I had waited until 2019 I would have been far under $100 gain per share.

 

[Mokuzai]

Yah, my jan 2021 $650's that I bought for $1 went to $2.50

But patience, Grasshopper... (if you know this reference, you're old...)

Bought that lottery ticket too, think this will be a hard one to pick an exit for.

 

[Sparky4life]

You sounded a little scared long but finally you realize what true long stands for.

I've been holding since I made my first buy in August, 2018 @ $345. Bought more to get my cost basis down to $254. This was my first sell. Lesson learned!!!

 

[Unpilot]

Yeah, we prolly don't wont to broach $320 today. There'd be some selling triggered when we hit the Feb 28th support level at $319.88 so best to leave that hill for next week.
Cheers!

Don't look

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Come on folks, let's show a little sympathy for the short sellers. They are fellow human beings with hopes and feelings. They might be credulous pawns in the hands of hedge fund manipulators who feed them nonsense, but their ignorance may ultimately be a fault of the modern education system. Hug a short today.

Sorry, nope.

Dan

 

[myt-e-s-l-a]

Maybe I'm slow, but surely the 300 shares you sold at $258 would have yielded $17k profit now?

Yes, but still LONG 200 shrs from 3/19/19, with basis @ 277 which I Sold today @ $317
TSLA is going crazy with short covering due to huge move.
Will wait for lower entry point to get back when tsla retraces by selling otm puts.

Mar 15, 2019

CLOSED at open above strangle 5x for loss of .20$/contract ( -80$ )
and
BUY 200 tsla @ 277
SOLD tsla 190322 265 put 3x @ 4.00$/contract

 

[SOULPEDL]

Still waiting on permits for mine. And just got notified I might lose power again on Saturday

My Az install's been an anomaly, but still on track before year end. Two meetings now with SRP and Tesla at my door because my garage is separate from the service and I require my 2 PWs to be in the garage where they belong in Az.

So to that whole "approved solar process with 350 cities", I believe my case will eliminate confusion for all future customers with my scenario. This is what you do in manufacturing, and I bet I'm a case study for Continuous Improvement.

I'm convinced the "magic" in Tesla is 90% about doing what's right vs make a profit or keep things as they are (trying to reduce headcount at every chance) in today's corporate world. There is nothing here that many other companies couldn't have done as well, they just don't have the same governance and value system as Tesla.

My Install Supervisor told me that he believes the panel layouts are arranged automatically by software. I had to challenge mine (because I'm East/West roofed and all PVs should be on the West side). Tesla learns where others don't. You will likely never see these anomalies again, hence continued Margin climbing on vehicles etc...

So to all the folks that were angry because there was no profit at first, you have an answer. Hats off to the patient ones here. I'm almost back to where I left off at the 420 tweet, and plenty of room to launch further. Still holding 90% of shares that I owned last week... forget about it already...

 

[SteveG3]

Come on folks, let's show a little sympathy for the short sellers. They are fellow human beings with hopes and feelings. They might be credulous pawns in the hands of hedge fund manipulators who feed them nonsense, but their ignorance may ultimately be a fault of the modern education system. Hug a short today.

tongue in cheek aside,

if what’s been going on has been a “bigger game” of fossil fuel economy fueling this historic 7 year plus outlier short position for a larger strategic goal

and

that “bigger game” short position and it’s tandem strategic misinformation campaign to create visceral distrust/dislike of Tesla, Musk, their products... and the false expectation that they are all sure to implode...

has brought in large number of ~”innocent bystander” retail investing shorting (and Tesla bashing from these folks)

... we just might be at the start of a TSLAq backlash,

ie, “Elon/Tesla are not money incinerating frauds. The people who screamed this stuff at us day after day, a years long massive stream of this rubbish with shouted with fake ‘authority’ and ‘certainty,’ ... these people who vigorously led me to lose a big chunk of my net worth by shorting TSLA are the group running a money incinerating fraud.”


perhaps we even get a sibling backlash...

Media Tesla bashing backlash among people who didn’t buy the better car, didn’t invest in Tesla’ explosive 2020s stock performance because of pervasive fraudulent media coverage.

 

[Zaxxon]

Come on folks, let's show a little sympathy for the short sellers. They are fellow human beings with hopes and feelings. They might be credulous pawns in the hands of hedge fund manipulators who feed them nonsense, but their ignorance may ultimately be a fault of the modern education system. Hug a short today.

*shrug* My sympathy for folks intent on betting their investment dollars on the failure of a company working to improve the future of humanity is limited to 'let's not post jokes about their death.'

It's been thirteen months, but perhaps it's time to whip this puppy out once again, now that we're finally back to the range indicated on the chart.

 

[BLSmith2112]

Yeah, we prolly don't wont to broach $320 today.

 

[KarenRei]

When I clicked on this, I was so sure I was going to be clicking on this song instead....

 

[Todd Burch]

Come on folks, let's show a little sympathy for the short sellers. They are fellow human beings with hopes and feelings. They might be credulous pawns in the hands of hedge fund manipulators who feed them nonsense, but their ignorance may ultimately be a fault of the modern education system. Hug a short today.

Naw. Thanks though .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

While I'm sure we all wish it was up even more today and yesterday....the actual stock action is very encouraging. Very stable rise. Brief periods of selling that are bought up but even then, it's more a pause on the rise rather than a drop and then back up. All in all, stable and consistent. I'd much rather have that than spike up 5%, down 4%, up 4% etc...

 

[M3Rider]

320 breached like nothing